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Daily Speculations


Modified: 2018-04-26T04:53:16Z

Copyright: Copyright 2018

Carousel, from Victor Niederhoffer


The current broadway show Carousel was Rodgers' and Hammerstein's favorite show. The scene where Billy tells his wife that's he's a no good according to Sondheim was the turning point in modern theater…. The music was very good and the dancing was good also. However, the principal is a man of color and he sung [...]

Letter to my daughter, from Sushil Kedia


Dear Muskaan, Soon, in a couple of months, you would step out of your teen years. Your daddy is very happy to find you have worked at configuring a fine personage. One has written to you a few years ago, a great mind works well in a healthy body & the two are held together well [...]

That Old Cabbie Came Back in My Dream & Woke Me Up, from Sushil Kedia


He told me some time ago, before I woke up and while I was dreaming that Sell in May and go away is known to everyone including every cabbie anywhere in the world, even the ones in Namibia and Ethiopia. So I asked him, what are you trying to say just tell me clearly. Can't you [...]

Notes from the Field, from Larry Williams


We have been looking for a summer home in Montana and am amazed at the number of properties for sale; and the number that have not sold, many have dropped prices.

Iran Nuclear Deal Questions, from Jeff Watson


This morning’s headlines include an EU push to save the Iran Nuclear deal. Is the deal that good? Why do they want to save the deal? Are they being paid off? Do they really want Iran to have nuclear weapons? Next door to Europe? What makes this deal good for the west? All I [...]

One of the Greatest Conundrums: EUR/CHF, from anonymous


Quoting Anatoly Veltman: DB 90% off its record doesn't scare me. I'd buy that before any lottery ticket in the world. But back to EUR/CHF's first touch of 1.2000 since SNB had refused to prop that Maginot line January 2015–this is a market significant event. about CHF: (I have been wrong before – more often than right.) [...]

Former People, from Peter Ringel


The chair wrote about the movie "The Death of Stalin". I watched it the first time, as a comedy, and did not like it. I found it is not funny. I watched it a second time as a drama/documentary–and now it is an excellent movie to me. Another book about Russia, that recently impressed me a lot [...]

Heavy Construction Company Indicator, from Bo Keely


I met someone who invests by heavy construction company activity. He claims that heavy construction leads a rise in certain commodities as well as the general market, and that the top companies he monitors establish a rough lead time for investment. It would seem easy to identify the top ten companies online and chart [...]

USPS Annual Mail Volume, from anonymous


Chart of USPS annual mail volume from the USPS website. Carder Dimitroff writes:  I'm wondering if it makes sense to sell US Postal System assets.  anonymous comments:  There are basically three different theories on what to do with the post office. Theory 1: The post office is dying. The solution lies in free markets which means privatizing it which [...]

Why Isn’t Automation Creating Unemployment? from Gordon Haave


Why MC Rove's way ahead of the curve prediction that the "automation is going to take all of our jobs" theory was not correct: "Why Isn't Automation Creating Unemployment" Stefan Jovanovich writes:  Consider the source: a law school in Boston. "In the more distant future, the story might be quite different and service sector jobs might experience the kind [...]

The Use of Deception, from Victor Niederhoffer


The use of deception by the US in the missile strike on Syria where they sent destroyers to the Mediterranean and had the Syrians thinking the missile strikes would come from there but in actuality they came from 3 other directions was similar to the market deceptions where they have a market that is usually [...]

New Jersey Nuclear Plants Bailout: Bad for Markets? from Carder Dimitroff


It appears New Jersey's governor will sign a bill subsidizing the state's nuclear power plants: "One bill would provide two Public Service Enterprise Group nuclear power plants with subsidies costing ratepayers about $300 million per year." While friends at American Nuclear Society and Nuclear Energy Institute may be celebrating, those invested in the power markets may have [...]

Memphis Cotton Exchange Museum, from Jeff Watson


P. Allen Smith, a fellow alum from my undergraduate days, produced this informative segment for his PBS show. It's about the Memphis Cotton Exchange Museum, and has good shots of the exchange trading floor and the big board. There are some very nice historical pictures of the floor during it's heyday.

Volatility Question, from Bill Rafter


In the last few days one of the economic talking heads commented on how he has "not seen volatility like this since" sometime in the past. I forget whether the former time was 1998 or 2008, but it doesn't matter, as there are many periods in the past with greater volatility. My quick look at past [...]

Dimson Valuation Discussion, from Tim Melvin


Pardon my links but this is pretty interesting conversation between Elroy Dimson and Meb Faber.

The Short-Seller is the Loneliest Animal in the Market Wilds, from anonymous


The other day, I wrote/postulated the equation: MTM Impact of Long Ins - MTM impact of short Ins = = - (Opportunity Impact of Outs + Opportunity Impact of Virgins) (details here) Transposing this symbology: <=> MTM Impact of Long Ins + (Opportunity Impact of Outs + Opportunity Impact of Virgins) = MTM impact of short Ins Interesting perspective comes [...]

50 Day MA Crossing the 100 Day, from Stef Estebiza


We are at a point where MA 50 day is crossing down the 100 MA… Sure, we are in a low, and maybe we will see a bounce to retest higher values, but the point is, use this rebound to lighten up, thanking God for giving us new highs from which to sell, or are you [...]

New Stockpile Gift Cards, from Jeff Watson


There's a new game in town. It's called Stockpile, an app/brokerage that allows one to buy fractional shares of stocks in price increments online. They also offer gift cards at places like Target where one can buy fractional shares of every stock on the S&P 500 and many ETF's etc. One can buy the gift [...]

Dimson Interview, from anonymous


Nice interview with Dimson: Episode #100: Elroy Dimson, "High Valuations Don't Necessarily Mean That We're Going To See Asset Prices Collapse"

Brief Update, from Bo Keely


I've been busy at Slab City. The three year era of rental cars expired when I pulled my old Ford Contour out of mothballs and it promptly blew a head-gasket. So I'm riding a Honda 185 motorcycle that is fun. I put a sidecar on it that fell off, so I'm looking at the world [...]