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Daily Speculations


Modified: 2018-01-21T05:37:25Z

Copyright: Copyright 2018

Concave Up // Concave Down, from Kim Zussman


Women often do their eyebrows in a pattern I find somewhat provocative. Notwithstanding calculus, I recall that eye signals are very significant, and it follows that eye make-up is there for a reason. And you are the reason. Accentuated lashes are meant to accentuate pupillary coyness. Or deadly serious entrainment. I was reminded of this looking at a [...]

20 Longest Stretches of DJIA Without 5% Corrections, from anonymous


For educational and history purposes  Assuming DJIA closes where it is today on the coming tue Here are the longest stretches of DJIA without 5% corrections from all time high closes  in terms of calendar days  # rank by longest stretch since 1900  Date first date of 5% correction  DJIA value at the time of first 5% correction from all time high [...]

Dow Jones & 200 Week Moving Average, from Cagdas Tuna


Peter Pinkhasov replies: “Mr. Partridge, I have just sold my Climax Motors”

Rocky Asked About Consensus Misunderstanding, from Orson Terrill


I would note that the short, intermediate, and long-term consensus for inflation are all 2.0% +/- 0.5% — as found in the TIPS breakeven market — and this range has been in place for much of the past decade. One of the larger risks is the growing interest, and calls for, a higher inflation rate (long [...]

Documentary Recommendation, from Alston Mabry


This was an excellent documentary on Teddy Roosevelt in the amazon in 1914. Into the Amazon: Into the Amazon tells the remarkable story of the journey taken by President Theodore Roosevelt and legendary Brazilian explorer Cândido Rondon into the heart of the South American rainforest to chart an unexplored tributary of the Amazon. Two of the most [...]

Nobody Asked Me, But…from Victor Niederhoffer


1. The changes in the lead in the last minutes in the Vikings Saints game as well as the Knicks game prompts one to see if there is an inordinate tendency in markets. I find that in the last 45 minutes of play the S&P futures change from minus to plus, 10% of the time [...]

I Sometimes Wonder, from Victor Niederhoffer


I sometimes wonder how big agrarian reformer traders like palindrome and drunk and upside down man and his twin can make money retrospectively outside of service loopholes and I think a large part of it is creating a buzz concerning their already held positions and another part of it is they made money in the [...]

People Have Been at This for a While, from Stefan Jovanovich


The Oriental Institute sponsored a dual address by an Egyptian and Hittite scholar about the first recorded battle in history–Kadesh. I found it fascinating. anonymous writes:  I find the Hittites fascinating myself. They were very innovative. I think we still don't know how they got water into their mountain capital. If I remember it correctly, for this battle [...]

An Excellent (if Frustrating) EconTalk, from Alston Mabry


Dick Carpenter of the Institute for Justice and author of Bottleneckers talks with EconTalk host Russ Roberts about his book–a look at how occupational licensing and other regulations protect existing job holders from competition.

A Convenient Table, from anonymous


The UN provides a convenient table that ranks countries by you-know-what. Perhaps this was in the President's briefing book.

Observation on Cryptos, from Jeff Watson


I just got back from shopping at Publix for our dinner. While going through the checkout line, I overheard two of the baggers talking about cryptocurrencies. One kid was giving market tips and advice to the other. An exact comment from the young tout: "buy Ripple today, it will never ever go down." Is there [...]

Many Markets, from Victor Niederhoffer


Many markets are in a parabolic upward move with new highs and current prices well above the 20 day average, i.e they're trending… is it bullish or bearish and what is the affect on other markets that have not gone up big? anonymous writes:  The move has been underway for several weeks, most recently with CL edging [...]

The Genius of Corvids, from Pitt T. Maner III


A great article about a fascinating group of intelligent birds. Bernd Heinrich has written several books about them.  "13 Surprisingly Weird Reasons Why Crows And Ravens Are The Best Birds" .

Yearly All Time Highs, from Kim Zussman


I checked SP500 weekly closes for new all time highs per year, back to 1951.  2017 was second highest total weekly ATHs in the series (also see attached plot): year  Count 1951     14 1952     13 1954     25 1955     20 1956      6 1958     10 1959     13 1961     20 1963     10 1964     23 1965     12 1966      [...]

The Second World Wars, from Alston Mabry


Kirkus Reviews: Best 2017 Books of Disturbing Yet Necessary History THE SECOND WORLD WARS: How the First Global Conflict Was Fought and Won by Victor Davis Hanson Not just another account of World War II, but a thoughtful overview of the battles that were "emblematic of the larger themes of how the respective belligerents made wise and foolish choices [...]

The State of Cryptocurrency Reportage, from Andy Aiken


The lede: Bitcoin drops 11% as South Korea moves to regulate cryptocurrency trading Instead of the more relevant (other crypto did not drop commensurately): "Bitcoin drops as Snapshot Block for the Segwit 2x Fork Passes" Boris writes: Still acting as directional magnet for all other cryptos, at least for the larger ones - Only Ripple not [...]

The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870–2015, from Alston Mabry


Quick summary from Tyler Cowen: "The Rate of Return on Everything" Here is what I learned from the paper itself: 1. Risky assets such as equities and residential real estate average about 7% gains per year in real terms. Housing outperformed equity before WWII, vice versa after WWII. In any case it is a puzzle that housing [...]

Luigi Albertini, Harold Macmillan, from Stefan Jovanovich


Today is the anniversary of their deaths, Albertini in 1941 and Macmillan in 1986. Between them they explain everything that needs to be known about The Great War. Albertini's work–the Origins of the War of 1914– is the best single work of history I have ever read. Macmillan's experience as a young man says it all. From [...]

A General Observation, from Alston Mabry


A general observation: Reading various market analyses, it seems the modal form now is this: (1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE. (2) Therefore, the market is going to crash. As opposed to: (1) The market is over-valued versus some metric such as CAPE. (2) Therefore, it's reasonable to expect below-average returns going forward for some [...]

Bitcoin, from Anand


The more I read about this market the more Bitcoin and its offshoots look like Railroad stocks in the late 1800s. Behind the shadows there are ‘whales’ who own large blocks with the credulous public chasing the market higher. Every time there is a mini panic these guys come in and support the market like [...]