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Comments on GraphOilogy: Net Oil Exports and the "Iron Triangle"





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What a load of garbage.

2008-10-12T20:15:00.000-04:00

What a load of garbage.



I don't think the powers that be do ignore it.In f...

2007-11-08T08:38:00.000-05:00

I don't think the powers that be do ignore it.
In fact I think that this is precisely the reason why Iraq and soon Iran will be invaded.

The sober conclusion is this:
Within five years there will be less than 5 mpbd available in all of North America unless somebody keeps exporting. The graph says exports will not be forthcoming without the use of arms.

It's too late folks. The doomers unfortunately were right.



(this comment duplicates one from the Oil Drum dis...

2007-07-18T16:16:00.000-04:00

(this comment duplicates one from the Oil Drum discussion. Reposting here in hopes of getting some numbers, or direction to a reference.)

As was noted, the impact of this effect depends hugely on the ratio of total production to domestic consumption. I need to play with Excel some more, but from what I can tell, if domestic consumption is more than about 25% of total production, then the total rate of decline of exports is much greater than the sum of the rates of production decline and consumption growth, which is the scary part.

So, a question for people who have more data to hand than I do: What is the actual situation in the major producing countries? What percentage of their production do they consume domestically?

For purposes of this question, refined products that are re-imported should maybe be included as domestic consumption, on the assumption that if oil is sufficiently dear, they will develop domestic refining capacity. On the other hand, that may not be practical in many cases. So I guess both figures would be of interest (i.e. with and without reimported refined products).



This idea is so simple and straightforward that ev...

2007-07-13T06:40:00.000-04:00

This idea is so simple and straightforward that even the innumerate can understand it (i. e. me).

It's just tragic that the powers that be ignore it.



Thank you, Mr. Brown, for your work. I believe yo...

2007-07-12T22:29:00.000-04:00

Thank you, Mr. Brown, for your work. I believe you have exposed a glaring gap in our peak oil perception, i.e, the failure of exporting countries to meet importer's needs.

No one seems to be acknowledging the disaster potential. We're all just looking for the peak in oil production. The peak in exports is an entirely different problem and raises and enhances all sorts of possibilities, for example, resource wars.

Any idea of a timeline? That would be unbelievably helpful in our preparation.



lionel,Bear in mind that politicians are just as s...

2007-07-12T01:01:00.000-04:00

lionel,
Bear in mind that politicians are just as stupid, ignorant and brainwashed as the rest of the general population. in fact, the system rewards people who honestly deny reality and serve the interests of their corporate masters instead... in other words, the corporate lobbyists.



Great post on a Question that I have been thinking...

2007-07-11T01:53:00.000-04:00

Great post on a Question that I have been thinking about for a while - why is this crisis being denied by almost everybody?
Your Iron Triangle misses out a major group - the politicians.

They seem to be in stategic denial because:
1.what needs to done - conservation and reduction of GDP - would be disasterous political policy.
2. In general they have a religious like faith that the market and the technologists will work something out.

I have come to the conclusion that because the system is benefiting so many people who have a vested interest in maitaining their faith in the growth economy, the market and technology, there is no prospect of changing the system until the system actually fails. Foresight be damned!



The gist of this article is brutally rational. It...

2007-07-10T21:55:00.000-04:00

The gist of this article is brutally rational. It dispels any false hope that we somehow will have a nice, gentle ride down from the peak of oil production while giving the techno magicians time to brew up a replacement for petroleum. Hang on, folks, this could be a wild ride!