Subscribe: sentimenTrader.com
http://www.sentimentrader.com/subscriber/feed.xml
Added By: Feedage Forager Feedage Grade A rated
Language: English
Tags:
backtest engine  charts screens  day  engine log  high  indicators charts  log sign  new  report  screens backtest  stocks  time 
Rate this Feed
Rate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feed
Rate this feed 1 starRate this feed 2 starRate this feed 3 starRate this feed 4 starRate this feed 5 star

Comments (0)

Feed Details and Statistics Feed Statistics
Preview: sentimenTrader.com

sentimenTrader.com Blog





Updated: 2018-01-17T11:53:39Z

 



Momentum’s Dominant Even As Biotech Turns

2018-01-17T11:53:39Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Momentum is enjoying its turn The highest momentum stocks have nearly doubled the gains in the S&P 500 over the past year. That’s among their best relative performance in 20 years. If we zoom out and look at the past 90 years, there were periods with much relative returns in momentum stocks. Many of those outstanding periods for momentum occurred when coming out of extended downtrends. When occurring after years of a bull market, stampedes into momentum stocks led to below-average returns. Biotech got burned After a spectacular 2017 and early 2018, leading to excellent gains and new highs, biotech stocks were among the largest losers on Tuesday, following a new high last week. Similar reversals led to volatile returns, with a modest negative bias in the short-term, less so long-term. Whoa, Nellie Small options traders spent 40% of their volume buying speculative call options last week, the most since 2011. Since the 2009 bottom, there have been 5 other weeks with this much enthusiasm. According to the Backtest Engine, two weeks later the S&P was lower each time by an average of 1%. Rejected Stocks were on track for one of the largest negative reversals in years on Tuesday. While one-day reversals have a sketchy predictive record, the one being carved out in the S&P had led to consistent weakness, but a late recovery alleviated many of the most negative precedents. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



Gap Up While Bears Scatter And New Highs Jump

2018-01-17T09:26:26Z

For those who don’t follow the premium Twitter account, which you have access to if you’re receiving this message, following are some of the studies and indicators that were posted today. If you’d like to follow the Twitter account, please request to follow @SenTrader_Prem on Twitter then send an email to admin at sentimentrader dot com […]

This post is available to sentimenTrader members only.

Please visit sentimentrader.com and sign up for an account or upgrade your current account or login to view.




Persistent Trend As Stocks Become Stretched

2018-01-12T11:09:18Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. The most persistent trend The persistence of the S&P’s uptrend over the past year is among the highest in its history. Same goes for the past 3, 5, and 10 years. When we look at the 5 comparable trends, using the 200-day average as a guide was helpful. Rubber band The S&P is more than above its 200-day average for the first time in years. That’s not unusual following a bear market, but it is when trading at a multi-year high. The others led to either persistent weakness, or not at all, with no real in-between markets. Where’s the money? Investors pulled more than $22 billion from equity mutual funds and ETFs in early January. That’s a new record outflow going back more than a decade. It doesn’t fit with virtually every other indicator we follow. Record level of extremes More than 52% of our indicators are now at an optimistic extreme. None of them are at a pessimistic extreme. Good sign for natty In the December 28 report, we looked at big rallies in natural gas from a multi-month low. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



Yield Inversion As Utilities Correct

2018-01-11T12:31:18Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Yield inversion The yield on 2-year Treasury Notes is now higher than the dividend yield on the S&P 500. That’s the first time in 10 years, causing consternation among some who only look back that far, since it preceded the financial crisis. But going back to the 1930’s, this was not uncommon and the only similar scenario led to a long-term bull market. Utilities suffer a correction The Dow Utilities index has dropped more than 10% from its recent high, entering (arbitrarily defined) correction territory. Yet the Dow Industrials have brushed that off and continued to make new highs in recent days. That kind of disconnect has occurred only a handful of times, and has not been a good sign, especially for Utilities. Good sign for energy In the December 27 report, we looked at a big positive thrust in breadth in the Energy sector. In the past, if buyers continued to persist over the next two weeks, it was an excellent indicator for longer-term returns. Video tutorial For those who haven’t tried the Backtest Engine, we posted a video that goes over a simple test, looking at times there was an extreme number of new 52-week highs in Industrial stocks. It’s a brief introduction to using the feature to gain more insight as to what an indicator is suggesting. Almost all indicators and models on the site are available for testing. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



The S&P’s Momentum Streak Aided By Industrials

2018-01-10T13:10:50Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. The S&P’s consistent, rapid rally The most important index in the world has rallied consistently for the past 1, 3, and 6 months. It has also picked up its gains, nearing or exceeding its upper Bollinger Band on daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. Similar markets led to some shorter-term pullbacks, with all but one culminating in v-shaped bottoms. Industrial-strength momentum The Industrials sector has rallied almost every day for the past three weeks…and the three weeks prior to that. During the past 30 days, there have been only 5 down days, a remarkable streak not seen in 30 years. Similar buying clusters at a new high have led to consistent gains going forward. Here we go with the odd readings again The NYSE Up Issues Ratio was less than 43% on Monday, well below average for a day when the S&P 500 rose at least marginally and closed at a multi-year high. More Adding to the oddities, the VIX “fear gauge” also rose today. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



Global Momentum Spurs Melt Up Chatter

2018-01-09T11:12:46Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Global synchronized momentum Most major stock markets are not only rallying, they’re showing extreme momentum. The weekly Relative Strength Index across 6 major global indexes is now the highest in history. High readings in that indicator suggest overbought conditions, but extremely high readings suggest momentum. Other times it hit an extremely high level, markets did well, especially the MSCI World Index. It’ll never go down Over the past few days, there has been a jump in presidential celebration about the stock market. There has also been skyrocketing interest from the pubic about the potential for a melt up. The only time that we’ve seen a spike in both displays of supreme confidence was mid-October last year. It’s hard to blame them, as the S&P has managed 5 consecutive all-time highs for the first time since October. More bandwagon-jumping In late December, we noted that Wall Street analysts were busying upgrading the price targets of the S&P 500 stocks they cover. Volatility buyers The Total Put/Call Ratio dropped to a low level on Monday, thanks to heavy trading in call options on the VIX. The ratio for the VIX dropped below 0.10 for one of the lowest readings in years. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



January’s Prediction Record, Soaring Materials And The “Not Too Hot” Streak

2018-01-08T13:25:29Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. So goes January…or August A popular rule of thumb suggests that how stocks start a New Year means something for the full year. It correctly predicts the return over the next year about 60% of the time. That’s likely a statistical fluke, and other weeks have just as good, or better, predictive record. Material momentum A rally in Materials stocks over the past couple of weeks has driven most of them to 52-week highs. For the first time since 2007, more than half the stocks in the sector reached a new high together. Since 1990, that has been a signal of buying exhaustion. The not-too-hot uptrend has ended The S&P went more than 380 days above its 200-day average, but not more than 10% above it. For the first time ever, that kind of streak ended with a move to the upside. The only two time periods that had a similar streak ended with a move below the 200-day. Payroll report Since 2014, when the S&P closed at a new high on the day of the Nonfarm Payroll report, over the next week it added to its gains only 22% of the time. The latest Commitments of Traders report was released, covering positions through Tuesday “Smart money” hedgers are still heavily long the agriculture contracts that make up the DBA fund. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



A Historic Streak As Investors Wade In

2018-01-05T11:44:35Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. A(nother) historic streak After setting so many different records last year, 2018 is on track to score even more. Among them, the major indexes haven’t been more than 5% from a 52-week high for nearly 400 days (more than 450 days if we exclude a single day last June). There were 3 other time periods that matched what we’re seeing now, and after each of them, the S&P 500 declined more than 7% over a period of 30-40 days. All in, part deux Individual investors have the most stock exposure since 2000, and their short-term optimism is now rising. It has done an about-face during the past two months, going from pessimism to the 2nd-highest optimism since the 2009 low. The AAII Bull Ratio is nearly 80%, a level that has led to poor annualized returns. The times when it got this extreme with stocks at a high, future gains were erased. Payroll report The widely-watched Nonfarm Payroll report is on Friday. When the December report has been released (the first week in January), the S&P 500 has rallied over the next two weeks 40% of the time. Rising risk For stocks, the combined Short-Term Risk Level and Medium-Term Risk Level is 13. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



Happy New Year As Investors Go All In

2018-01-04T14:15:46Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Happy New Year The S&P has enjoyed a record start to the year, with back-to-back gains and new highs. It has never before managed to climb more than 0.5% with 52-week highs on the first two sessions. Similar years saw pullbacks, with the short-term gains being erased, and less stringent tests also mostly saw weakness over the shorter-term. All in Individual investors haven’t been this exposed to stocks since 2000. They have an extremely high allocation to stocks, and have drawn down their cash cushion even further. In 30 years, the only times they were more exposed were in early 1998 and mid-1999 to early 2000. Emerging market breakout The emerging markets ETF, EEM has spurted higher at the open the past two days and never looked back, leaving gaps of more than 0.25% between the day’s low and previous day’s high. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]



Dollar Doldrums Leads To Commodity Streak

2018-01-03T10:09:39Z

This is an abridged version of our Daily Report. Dollar doldrums The dollar has only been able to rise twice in nearly three weeks, tied for its worst streak since it entered its trading range in 2015. Similar selloffs since then have led to quick rebounds, but longer-term history is mixed and not suggestive of a lasting mean-reversion rally. One man’s trash… The broader commodity market has a strong inverse correlation to the dollar, so its slump has coincided with big positive streaks in some contracts. The index underlying a popular commodity ETF has rallied for 10 straight days, its 3rd-longest in 30 years. Jumping into tech The Nasdaq Composite rose more than 1% to a 52-week high on the first day of a new year 3 other times (2000, 2010, and 2011). NEW FEATURE Over the weekend, Eric released a site update that allows you to save tests from the Backtest Engine. Simply run any test, then click the Add To Favorites button and give it a name. It’s a nifty addition that will save a lot of time and scrambling to remember just what parameters you used before. You can always check the What’s New page to see what has been updated. For access to the full report, indicators, charts, screens, and Backtest Engine, log in or sign up for a free 30-day trial today. [...]