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Kansas City Chiefs rumors, news, roster updates, depth charts and more.

Updated: 2018-01-19T12:34:43-06:00


Chiefs win prediction for 2018 is a tricky one



ESPN’s Bill Barnwell projected the Vegas over / under numbers for each NFL team, including the Kansas City Chiefs. I’m going to be fascinated by the Chiefs win predictions this year because there’s a lot going on there with the possible switch of Alex Smith and Patrick Mahomes.

Barnwell projects the Chiefs over / under at nine wins which feels a little high if Mahomes is starting and a little low if Alex is starting. So right in the middle.

The Chiefs have posted winning records in each of their five seasons with coach Andy Reid, which would make this nine-win line conservative if it weren’t for the likelihood of Alex Smith being traded. Kansas City will turn over its offense to Patrick Mahomes, which should be exciting -- and occasionally terrifying -- based on what we saw in Week 17. The defense might improve with the returns from injuries of Eric Berry and Dee Ford, but the Chiefs still have holes they’ll have to cover up and will likely move on from longtime contributors Tamba Hali and Derrick Johnson for cap reasons.

Whether it’s Alex or Mahomes, the Chiefs still have Andy Reid so it’s unlikely they’re going to go 3-13 or anything like that. I imagine they’ll be in a similar position as this year fighting for their playoff lives in December.

NFL picks straight up and against the spread: Championship round



Last week I went 2-2 on the straight up picks, and 3-0 on the picks against the spread. You can’t see me right now, but I’m actually patting myself on the back for picking the Jaguars to beat the Steelers.

Straight Up

Jaguars @ Patriots: Jaguars

Go ahead and call me crazy, but I really like the Jaguars defense. The Patriots have lost in the playoffs to teams with very solid defenses: 2015 Broncos, 2010 Jets, 2009 Ravens, 2007 Giants. Also, despite all the insanity in the playoffs this year, there haven’t been too many upsets (according to SRS values from Pro Football Reference). This is the huge upset game that ‘no one’ saw coming.

Vikings @ Eagles: Vikings

I just can’t seem to think the Eagles can pull this one off. The Vikings have the better defense and the better quarterback in this game. I’ll be rooting for Nick Foles though, how awesome would it be to see Foles win a Super Bowl?

Against the Spread

This will be updated as the lines change, up until I make my bets. Remember, if you are planning on making money off of these, don’t. I do this for fun, not to feed my wife and kids.

When betting against the spread I pick what I think the spread to each game should be. Then if my spread is two or more points away from the actual spread, I place a bet on the team my spread favors.

Jaguars @ Patriots (-8): Jaguars
My spread: Patriots (-5)

Vikings (-3.5) @ Eagles: Eagles
My spread: EVEN

Who are you taking?

Rob Riggle hosting NFL awards show, could present to a Chiefs player (or two)



We might see some Kansas City Chiefs mentions in the NFL Honors show before the Super Bowl this year. That’s because Chiefs fan Rob Riggle is hosting the awards show this year which will take place the night before the Super Bowl.

Riggle very well could be handing out awards to a Chiefs player or two. The first one that comes to mind is rookie of the year where Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt could be the front runner. Saints RB Alvin Kamara is his main competition. Hunt could also be up for the air and ground player of the year (the ground one).

I wonder if the Chiefs could get the play of the year award (assuming the Vikings playoff touchdown doesn’t count) with Tyreek Hill’s score at the end of the first half of the Cowboys game.

Chiefs QB Alex Smith is the Chiefs’ nominee for Walter Payton Man of the Year and the sportsmanship award. He is a deserving recipient of both. The Chiefs hold the NFL record for most Man of the Year awards

Here are all the awards this year ...

AP Most Valuable Player

Walter Payton NFL Man of the Year

AP Coach of the Year

AP Comeback Player of the Year

AP Offensive Player of the Year

AP Defensive Player of the Year

AP Offensive Rookie of the Year

AP Defensive Rookie of the Year

Play of the Year

Air & Ground Players of the Year

Salute To Service Award

Greatness on the Road Award

Deacon Jones Award

Art Rooney Sportsmanship Award

Offensive Line of the Year

Clutch Performer of the Year

Touchdown Celebration of the Year

Game Changer Award

The Chiefs free agents to keep and to let go


The offseason is always interesting to me. During that time, there’s all sorts of work to be done in the form of film reviews, rookie prospect discussion, and then the fevered anticipation of trying to figure out what the next season will hold. However, we’re still in the baby stages of the offseason, and for now we’re still in the “explain how we would fix literally every problem the Chiefs have if this were Madden” mode. Which, personally, might be my favorite mode to be in. Last time I went over what I would do to get the Chiefs more cap room. You guys made some really compelling arguments as to why I should change my stance on Darrelle Revis, and after some serious thought, I think I’d get rid of him too (see how easy I am to manipulate?) due to the cost. So well done you! I’m standing firm on Dee Ford as of right now, though (though I wouldn’t weep if they cut him). Anyways, this week is the next step: player retention. The Chiefs have a number of players who are free agents this year (unrestricted, restricted and exclusive rights restricted, the various meanings of which can be found here. When did Wikipedia become good, by the way?), though not many of them are heavy hitters. That said, there are a few guys I’d keep around. Here is a list of the Chiefs’ FA’s, with their “designation” following: (note: I used Spotrac for this. Any errors should be directed to their complaint department) Bennie Logan (UFA) Dustin Colquitt (UFA) Anthony Sherman (UFA) Albert Wilson (UFA) Tyler Bray (UFA) C.J. Spiller (UFA) Jarvis Jenkins (UFA) Phillip Gaines (UFA) Steven Terrell (UFA) Jordan Devey (UFA) De’Anthony Thomas (UFA) Kevin Pierre-Louis (UFA) Terrance Mitchell (RFA) Zach Fulton (UFA) Kenneth Acker (UFA) Rakeem Nunez-Roches (RFA) Ramik Wilson (RFA) Terrance Smith (ERFA) Keith Baxter (ERFA) Stefan Charles (UFA) On the surface, that’s a daunting list (20 players!). However, in reality there isn’t that much action there outside of a half dozen or so players. The Chiefs, with a lot of cap flexibility (after my ruthless moves discussed earlier, plus Revis being cut), are in a position to make good offers to multiple players if they want to keep them. It’s always difficult to say “I’d keep Player X,” because there’s no way of knowing how much Player X may demand and whether an extension is possible. It could be that Player X wants to be guaranteed a starting spot if he re-signs (I could easily see that for Zach Fulton), or the players has an over-inflated sense of his own worth in the open market. It’s just hard to say. So I’ll do it this way... first, I’ll take care of the RFA and ERFA (the Chiefs can keep whoever they want out of those groups without too much cost), then I’ll address which players I’d try to keep with a “if under $_______ per year” caveat. Next article, I’ll dive into free agents I’d go after. Yay offseason! Restricted Free Agents Terrance Mitchell (Original Round Tender) This one isn’t too hard for me. Mitchell had ups and downs last year, but he can be on the field and not a glaring weak spot the majority of the time. That makes him worth keeping around for a year considering the lack of depth in the secondary. He was drafted in the 7th round, but I don’t believe there’s much risk of another team trying to poach him, hence the original round tender. Rakeem Nunez-Roches (2nd Round Tender) Nacho was solid if unspectacular this last year, which was disappointing considering how good he looked in the preseason. However, a defensive lineman who can make plays against the run and be a solid part of the rotation is worth keeping around. Nacho was good enough (and showed enough improvement from last year) that I do think there’s a slight chance of a team pursuing him, but not at the cost of a 2nd round pick. Given my plan to release Allen Bailey (if no extension is reasonable), keeping Nacho around is important to a defensive line that already doesn’t have [...]

Third shift open thread



What’s going on tonight?

The Chiefs should have a game management person like the Eagles do



Eagles head coach Doug Pederson has been given a lot of credit for his aggressive coaching this season including when to go for it on fourth down. It’s paid off as the Eagles are in the NFC Championship game this season. One of the reasons the Eagles can be aggressive is because they have the numbers on their side.

It seems so simple that you would have an analytics person sitting by Andy Reid at key situations to tell him what the numbers say. Sometimes you would listen and sometimes you wouldn’t but at least you’d know the odds. Given it’s a billion dollar operation, it seems like this would be an easy thing to do.

And yet not every team does that. Andy Reid is a running joke nationally when it comes to clock management so he could clearly benefit from someone there who has a different view of the game.

Given my expertise on Madden, I could be that guy. I’m available, Big Red.

(Note: The Chiefs do have an analytics person on staff. They have never talked about that person’s role on game day so perhaps some of this is already happening. Or not)

Arrowheadlines: Chiefs mentioned on Patriots sideline, 2018 free agents


8 reasons Alex Smith will be the Buffalo Bills' starting quarterback in 2018 | Alex Smith has made the most of his opportunities against the AFC East. In his career, Smith is 7-1 in the regular season against the Patriots (2-0), Jets (3-1) and Dolphins (2-0). He's thrown 18 touchdowns and no interceptions against the three teams. Smith does has one playoff loss to New England, but he's been very good against Buffalo's AFC East foes. Tom Brady Calls Jaguars Best Team He's Faced All Season | Fanrag “The hype only gets bigger from here, but we just got to stay focused on what we need to do and stay with the things that have been working this season,” he added. “We’re trying to go out there and continue to do what we’ve done and try to go beat the best football team we’ve played.” Dick Vermeil: "Jon Gruden will come back even better than he left" | Arrowhead Addict I’ll say this: he’ll come back even better than he left. He’ll see more, because he’s had a lot of free time to evaluate more, and I don’t know anybody that’s studied the game any more than Jon has since he left. I think he’ll be a better head football coach. I think he’ll see the big picture better. I think he’ll recognize where his weaknesses and strengths were when he was doing it. He’ll recognize what he has to do to surround himself with people that can help him be as good as he has the ability to be. I think he’ll be a better leader. I don’t think there are any negatives in Jon going back. Several Chiefs Etched Their Names in the Record Books in 2017 | Another young player that made the most of his brief opportunity was rookie quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who started under center for Kansas City in Week 17. Mahomes threw for 284 yards in the contest – the most in franchise history by a rookie making his NFL debut. The Patriots’ Super Bowl Path Is The Easiest In Modern NFL History | FiveThirtyEight Just like that, the two AFC teams Elo thought had the best chance of beating the Pats going into the playoffs — the Chiefs and the Steelers — were gone, and in their place were a below-average team and another that doesn’t rate much higher. According to Elo, New England is a 10-point favorite to beat Jacksonville, with an 81 percent chance of winning the Lamar Hunt Trophy yet again. Patriots-Titans sideline footage: Josh McDaniels tells players not to collapse like the Kansas City Chiefs | Pats Pulpit “Hey, Kansas City was in the exact same position last week-,” McDaniels said. “YEAH!,” Tom Brady interjected. “Kansas City was in the exact same position, we just got to put our foot on the gas,” McDaniels continued. Inexact poll shows Chiefs have two of the top five coveted QBs in the AFC | Arrowhead Pride 58 percent of the respondents said they would be happy with Alex Smith as their starter in 2018. 70 percent of the respondents said they would be happy if Patrick Mahomes was their starter in 2018. Looking at the results, there are two things people really covet when it comes to a QB: the hope of youth, and consistent performers. The Chiefs, after years of QB problems, somehow have both going for them in 2018 as of now. Lane Kiffin Names 24-Year-Old Charlie Weis Jr. FAU Offensive Coordinator | Bleacher Report "He's way ahead of his time in how he sees the game, his football IQ and just his overall intelligence," Kiffin said. "He's been around the game with his dad being a coach, a lot like I was when I was growing up, and has a bright future." Brett Veach's early acquisitions for the Chiefs worked out well | Arrowhead Addict That didn’t stop Veach from going out and making a few trades before the season started. He traded for two inside linebackers, Reggie Ragland and Kevin Pierre-Louis along with offensive guard Cameron Erving. A few weeks later, he grabbed a rookie kicker off of another team’s p[...]

Inexact poll shows Chiefs have two of the top five coveted QBs in the AFC


That, my friends, is the definition of covet - which is something the majority of NFL teams have not done regarding a Chiefs quarterback in quite some time. However, a recent survey I created says otherwise and the results are well, interesting. The Survey So let’s get a little background regarding the survey, shall we? The survey was simple, it asked the question “Would you be happy if this QB was your starter in 2018?” Every potential starting QB in the NFL had a ‘yes’ or a ‘no’ by their name. In total there were 891 respondents which far exceeded my expectations. Seriously, thank you everyone for filling the survey out. I posted the survey on Chiefs Twitter and a handful of other SB Nation sites. I specifically targeted SB Nation sites which had some flummox or recent flummox at the QB position: Giants, Bills, Colts, Browns, Redskins, Ravens, Jaguars, Bengals, Jets, and Bears. There are two things people really covet when it comes to a QB: the hope of youth, and consistent performers. The vast majority of survey respondents were likely Chiefs fans. If I had to put a number on it, I would say that 80% of the respondents were Chiefs fans and the other 20% were from a mixture of other franchises. So this is an “unofficial poll” and the results should be taken with a slight grain of salt. Nearly 1,000 respondents is a good number, but the distribution among different fanbases is just not there. Sadly, I’m limited in my ability to reach out to the entire NFL, so we’re stuck with my small circle at the moment. Maybe someday I’ll be in a position to form a fully accurate and professional survey. As is we’ll call this an “ArrowheadPride biased survey”. The Results I’m not going to beat around the bush much with this, here are the results for 32 NFL quarterbacks. Note the Chiefs quarterbacks in red. I apologize if that is difficult to read, but the results are interesting. 58 percent of the respondents said they would be happy with Alex Smith as their starter in 2018. 70 percent of the respondents said they would be happy if Patrick Mahomes was their starter in 2018. Looking at the results, there are two things people really covet when it comes to a QB: the hope of youth, and consistent performers. The Chiefs, after years of QB problems, somehow have both going for them in 2018 as of now. Let’s take a look at the AFC only now. According to this inexact poll, the Chiefs have two of the top five coveted QBs in the AFC - that’s impressive. I can’t honestly think of any time in the Chiefs history where this particular situation has occurred. There are tons of ways to dissect this information, and I think I’ll let the majority of it be hashed out in the comments. One particular angle I think is very interesting are potential trade partners for Alex Smith, but like I said, I’ll let the comments section figure all of that out. I plan on using this data in at least one other article, but I felt the results were worth sharing as soon as I got them. Thank you once again to everyone who participated, and I hope it was worth the 30 seconds it took to fill out the survey. [...]