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Piggington's Econo-Almanac





 



October 2017 Housing Data

Mon, 20 Nov 2017 00:59:11 +0000

Inventory is higher than in the spring, but remains very low for this time of year:

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There has nonetheless been some seasonal weakness to home prices:

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September 2017 Housing Data: looking more like 2016 than 2013

Sun, 08 Oct 2017 23:49:16 +0000

Another quick one... the developing divergence between 2013 and 2017 has continued. Unlike 2013, when months of inventory rose rapidly off low levels, we've seen inventory rise very non-rapidly in the past few months. It looks more like 2016 now -- but lower.

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Despite the scarcity, prices have leveled off:

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August 2017 Housing Charts: a break from the 2013 pattern

Sat, 16 Sep 2017 22:19:45 +0000

Hey all, mostly graphs this month but I did want to call out one interesting development.  Thus far, this year has been strikingly similar to 2013 in terms of months of inventory. But the pattern seemed to diverge last month -- and not in a way that buyers will like:

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We shall see if this disparity continues. If so, it will argue for accelerating prices immediately ahead, notwithstanding the typical fall lull. This chart looks pretty (short-term) price bullish too:

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Many more graphs below...

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July 2017 Housing Data Charts-n-Graphs

Sun, 20 Aug 2017 00:53:58 +0000

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June 2017 housing data: prices up, inventory up more

Mon, 10 Jul 2017 23:17:57 +0000

Home prices drifted further upward in June:

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But in some good-ish news for potential buyers, inventory made a bit of a comeback, with months of active inventory increasing from 1.3 to 1.6 months:

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Site changes coming soon-ish

Mon, 12 Jun 2017 20:44:27 +0000

Be ye warned, I will soon be dragging this site into the 2010s with a major upgrade of the underlying software. A lot of things will get better, especially for mobile users. Some things may be a step back (notably, my beloved "ignore user" module is no longer available in the new version). Either way, it's necessary for various technical reasons so there's no way around it.

If anyone has requests or suggestions for site functionality, feel free to comment or send them over via email to rich@piggington.com. I make no promises about what will actually get implemented, but I will certainly consider all suggestions.

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May 2017 Housing Data: Quick Graph-Fest

Fri, 09 Jun 2017 01:31:25 +0000

To sum up May: inventory rose, but sales rose more, resulting in even lower months-of-inventory. Despite that, single family home prices took a breather. But the price trend is still comfortably "up."

Further interpretation will be left as an exercise for the reader... ;-) Graphs below:

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Still No Housing Bubble in San Diego

Mon, 05 Jun 2017 20:27:18 +0000

Bubble chatter has been on the rise, especially with the recent new all-time high in in the SD median (nominal) home price. In my latest article for Voice of San Diego, I make the case that San Diego housing exhibits neither the valuation nor the behavioral characteristics of a bubble:

There’s Still No San Diego Housing Bubble Yet

The article includes a chart that will be new to Piggs, showing the speed of price increases now vs. during the late-stage bubble.

(Remember, digital charts are most compelling if you print them out on paper and hold them up to a video camera -- the lower resolution, the better).

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April 2017 Housing Data: Prices Surge, Inventory Slightly Improves

Tue, 09 May 2017 01:51:37 +0000

After a pullback in March, prices surged again last month.  The price per square foot for single family homes increased by 3.2% in April, bringing the year-to-date increase in that metric to 6.5%.

Here's how those prices look on a chart (note: I mostly ignore condos as they are much more volatile):

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The next chart uses the 3-month average of the single family ppsf, to approximate where the Case-Shiller index will go:

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March 2017 Data Roundup: prices moderate, but inventory collapses to 2013 levels

Tue, 11 Apr 2017 23:29:28 +0000

In last month's update, we saw an unusually large one-month jump in the price-per-square-foot metric, with single family homes up 4.5%. This month, prices by that measure pulled back by 1.4%, indicating that some of the increase was month-to-month noise. Still, when you combine the two months, it makes for a robust 3.0% increase in February and March together. By comparison, last year the single family ppsf rose by 1.7% over the same period.

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