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Preview: Between the Hedges

BETWEEN THE HEDGES



Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets



Updated: 2017-12-12T05:20:57.427-05:00

 



Tuesday Watch

2017-12-11T21:07:56.866-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Choking on Beijing's Clean Air Costs. The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, conceived as China's answer to the World Bank, approved a $250 million loan to Beijing Gas Group Co., to reduce coal use by connecting more than 200,000 rural households to the natural gas distribution network. It's the AIIB's first investment within China. The bank had better keep its checkbook handy: This new environmental protection drive could cost the Chinese government and its financing vehicles as much as 381 billion yuan ($57.6 billion) in subsidies. Authorities have realized that persuading villagers to stop burning coal is a more effective way of improving air quality in northern China than shutting coal-powered plants, a step that inevitably hurts economic growth.Asia Stocks Mixed Ahead of Central Bank Meetings. Benchmarks in Tokyo sat on recent gains, while Korean shares slipped, after U.S. stock indexes hit fresh highs overnight. Most major American gauges advanced, led by more than 1 percent increases in media, telephone and technology-hardware shares. Investors shrugged off a non-fatal explosion in New York in what was called a terrorist attack. Volumes remain lackluster ahead of the year’s final Federal Reserve and European Central Bank meetings. The Topix index and the Nikkei 225 Stock Average were little changed as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index rose 0.2 percent and the Kospi index fell 0.5 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.1 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Wall Street Journal: Botched Suicide Bombing Jolts New York Rush Hour, Injures Four. Police say 27-year-old Akayed Ullah detonated a low-tech explosive device near the Port Authority Bus Terminal.U.S. Shoppers Wield Smartphones to Keep a Lid on Consumer Prices. Web-driven comparison shopping complicates Federal Reserve decisions on how much and how fast to raise interest rates; savvy consumers weaken retailers’ pricing power and tamp down inflation. Fox News: Wife of demoted DOJ official worked for firm behind anti-Trump dossier. (video)CNBC:Why stocks could rip higher on the heels of the Fed meeting this week. (video) 'Bitcoin Jesus' is 'really, really concerned' about the future of the digital currency. (video)People are taking out mortgages to buy bitcoin, says securities regulator. (video)Boeing(BA) lifts dividend, sets new $18 billion share buyback.Cisco(CSCO) CEO Chuck Robbins thinks he's finally found the key to growing in China.Zero Hedge: Ex-Spy Chief Admits Role In 'Deep State' Intelligence War On Trump.Bitcoin Futures Tumble As Spot-Arbitrage Collapses. (graph)"I Feel Tremendous Guilt": Former Facebook Exec Says Company Is "Ripping Apart The Social Fabric Of Society"."It's A Crisis Situation": One Chart Explains Why Obamacare Is Locked In An Inescapable Death Spiral. Bond Bears Beware As Ag Prices Hit Record Low. (graph) Amazon's 75,000 New Robots Are Your Answer To No Wage Inflation.Stocks Soar To Most-Overbought In 22 Years But Bitcoin Futures Debut Dominate. (graph)Business Insider:Obama is campaigning for Roy Moore's Democratic opponent in the Alabama Senate race.Night Trading Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.75 -.75 basis point.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.0 -.25 basis pointBloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.0 -.02%. S&P 500 futures +.08%. NASDAQ 100 futures +.11%. Morning Preview Links Earnings of Note Company/Estimate (PAY)/.43Economic Releases6:00 am EST:The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for November is estimated to rise to 104.0 versus 103.8 in October.8:30 am ESTPPI Final Demand MoM for November is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in October.PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for November is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.4% gain in October.2:00 pm ESTThe Monthly Budget Statement for November is estimated at -$135.0B versus -$136.7B in October. Upcomi[...]



Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Seasonality, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

2017-12-11T15:24:48.499-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Slightly LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 9.51 -.73% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.41 +.12% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.87 -1.13% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.42 +1.73% ISE Sentiment Index 109.0 +17.2%Total Put/Call .76 -20.0% NYSE Arms .71 +36.57% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.48 -1.02% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 374.0 +.19%European Financial Sector CDS Index 45.39 -.63%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.41 -.87%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.04 -1.34%Emerging Market CDS Index 177.26 -.02%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.99 +.07% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 -.25 basis point TED Spread 27.25 +1.25 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -57.75 +3.0 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.03 +.04% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.29% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 56.5 -2.0 basis pointsChina Iron Ore Spot 504.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +.80%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.10 -2.1 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 55.40 -4.7 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.50 +.8 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 unch.100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -13 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +40 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +21 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-12-11T14:57:56.463-05:00

Bloomberg:China Credit Growth Exceeds Estimates as Funding Remains Buoyant. China’s broadest gauge of new credit and an index of loan growth both exceeded projections, signaling that a government push against leverage hasn’t crimped lending.How China's Debt Crackdown Could Start Weighing on the Economy. (video) China’s sweeping deleveraging push is poised to inflict more pain next year. Authorities tightening funding in financial markets and reining in excessive borrowing will likely deal a blow to investment in infrastructure and property, while soaring corporate funding costs may damp business expansion. That could add to headwinds facing an economy expected to grow at the slowest pace in more than a quarter century next year, complicating the balancing act for policy makers who want to defuse the country’s debt bomb without derailing the expansion. Six charts show how the purge will pressure the economy:Chinese Regulator Cracks Down on Booming Hedge-Fund Industry.Trump to Direct NASA to Send Astronauts Back to Moon and to Mars. President Donald Trump on Monday will direct the National Aeronautics and Space Administration to send American astronauts back to the moon and eventually to Mars, shifting the agency’s mission from the study of Earth and a longer-range plan to explore Mars.Wall Street Journal:The Future Is Bumpy: High-Tech Hedge Fund Hits Limits of Robot Stock Picking. Voleon is among investors deploying machine learning, a technology in which computers develop trading strategies. It’s harder than it sounds.FDA Plans New Medical-Device Approval Processes. Move would speed products’ entry to the U.S. market, mirroring the desires of industry, President Trump.MarketWatch.com:18 small-cap stocks that analysts expect to rise at least 50% in 2018.Analysts expect these large-cap U.S. stocks to rise at least 25% in 2018.Fox News:Port Authority explosion suspect: What we know about Akayed Ullah. (video)Trump accusers band together, seek congressional probe of 'sexual misconduct'. (video)CNBC:UBS: Cryptocurrencies like bitcoin are ‘the bubble to end all bubbles’. (video)Celgene(CELG) CEO: New therapies for a certain type of cancer boost survival rates 10-fold.The charts are pointing to a Santa Claus rally for small caps. (video)A top VC explains which technologies will change society the most in 10 years.Manufacturing CEO survey shows record high optimism on prospect of tax reform.Bitcoin smells like a bubble to CNBC advisor council.Bluebird(BLUE) could be on the way to a cure for sickle cell disease. (video)Zero Hedge:Times Square Terrorist Planned Attack For Years, Told Police "Motive Was Revenge".Moment Of Port Authority Explosion Caught On Tape. (video) Interactive Brokers Allows Long-Only Bitcoin Futures Trading (At 50% Margin).Treasury Forecasts Tax Reform Will Lead To Longest Period Without Recession In History.Greenwald: The U.S. Media Just Suffered Its Most Humiliating Debacle in Ages.Pentagon Disses Trump, Will Allow Transgender People To Enlist In Military.WTI-Brent Crude Spread Snaps After Forties Pipeline Closure For "Weeks, Not Days". (graph)Near Record 5.6 Million Americans Were Hired In October, Most In Over 16 Years. (graph)[...]



Bear Radar

2017-12-11T13:48:17.318-05:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Growth -.1%Sector Underperformers: 1) Foods -.5% 2) Education -.5% 3) Homebuilders -.5%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: ONCE, ATNX, JUNO and SGENStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) BX 2) STZ 3) GME 4) URBN 5) K Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) VMI 2) DNR 3) KMB 4) UPS 5) FLS Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-12-11T13:25:03.708-05:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Growth +.4%Sector Outperformers: 1) Social Media +1.9% 2) Telecom +1.5% 3) Oil Service +1.3% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:ARGX, BLUE, BPMC, RIOT, HYGS, CSIQ, XENT, NSH, EGOV, DQ, BMRN, IMKTA, ECH, VRX, IYZ, MMLP, NTG, DGII, NEWR, TGP, VECO, OSTK, GLPG, ASML, CTL, PRO, TLRD, CVRR and NSHStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) SBGI 2) LLY 3) STZ 4) STLD 5) GBT Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) BLUE 2) BPMC 3) SPWR 4) BMRN 5) LITECharts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-12-11T12:00:46.118-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Monday Watch

2017-12-10T21:54:19.933-05:00

Today's Headlines Bloomberg:China Audit Finds Provinces Faked Data and Borrowed Illegally. China found some local governments inflated revenue levels and raised debt illegally in a nationwide audit, a setback for Beijing in its bid to boost the credibility of economic data after a run of scandals. Ten cities, counties or districts in the Yunnan, Hunan and Jilin provinces, as well as the southwestern city of Chongqing, inflated fiscal revenues by 1.55 billion yuan ($234 million), the National Audit Office said in a statement on its website dated Dec. 8.Small Banks, Big Worry. Beijing's wealth management clampdown will hit them disproportionately hard.Stocks in Asia Nudge Higher on Economy Optimism. Stocks in Asia made modest gains at the open after U.S. labor market figures lifted optimism in global growth, though trading promises to remain subdued as traders wind down going into the holiday season. Equity benchmarks advanced in Tokyo, closing on this year’s highs, and Seoul, while futures on Hong Kong markets signaled a firmer start. Data showed hiring increased by more than forecast in November and the unemployment rate held at a 17-year low paved the way for another U.S. interest-rate increase this week. The S&P 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at all-time highs on Friday in light volume. The dollar held on to last week’s gains as President Donald Trump prepares to give a closing argument for the proposed tax reform on Wednesday. Bitcoin futures began trading in Chicago, while the spot price gyrated. The Topix index added 0.2 percent as of 9:18 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fluctuated. South Korea’s Kospi index rose less than 0.1 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Investors Told to Brace for Steepest Rate Hikes Since 2006. (video)Wall Street Journal:  Bitcoin Futures Launch Stokes Fears of Manipulation, Hacks, Glitches. Cboe’s new bitcoin futures are set to start trading Sunday evening.Mideast Tensions Simmer in Wake of U.S. Shift in Israel Policy. U.S. decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel’s capital prompts protest in Beirut.Electric-Vehicle Bulls Shake Up Metals Markets. Fear of missing out is driving investors into rare metals used in electric vehicles, but some wonder how the rally might end.Obamacare’s Individual Mandate: On Its Way Out, or Already Gone? Some experts say with many people already exempt from the individual mandate, the impact of undoing it might not be so bad.Fox News: Post reporter Trump wants fired for 'bad tweet' resigned from paper in 2010 after similar incident. (video)'Stain on America!' Trump denounces 'Fake News Media' after string of major reporting errors exposed. (video)CNBC: 'Bitcoin crash’ among significant market risks in 2018, says Deutsche Bank. (video)PayPal's(PYPL) Levchin on bitcoin: 'I'm still trying to figure it out'.Trump makes direct appeal for Roy Moore with impassioned robo-call: 'We need that seat'.Tech's recent weakness is a 'temporary speed bump' – Bespoke's Paul Hickey calls for new highs. (video)Ascension and Providence-St. Joseph's Health are in deal talks, may create the largest hospital chain in the US.Zero Hedge:  Pentagon To Undergo First Ever Audit After Decades Of Sloppy Accounting And Missing Trillions.Strzok-Gate And The Mueller Cover-Up.CBOE Website Crashes As Futures Trading Begins; Bitcoin Price Squeezed 10% Higher.All You Need To Know About Today's Bitcoin Futures Contract.Chicago Woman Who Filmed Brutal Kidnapping And Torture Of Disabled Teen Sentenced To Community Service.49 Countries Have Violated Sanctions On North Korea.Business Insider: Retail stocks have been crushing the market against all odds — and traders are betting on more gains.We asked a top hedge-fund recruiter what it takes to get a senior-level job the[...]



Weekly Outlook

2017-12-10T21:00:42.406-05:00

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on tax reform hopes, yen weakness, seasonal strength, buyout speculation, short-covering and economic optimism. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.
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Today's Headlines

2017-12-09T19:04:22.461-05:00

Bloomberg:China Factory Inflation Eases as Consumer Prices Remain Subdued. The producer price index rose 5.8 percent in November from a year earlier, matching the projection in a Bloomberg survey and slowing from 6.9 percent in October. The consumer price index climbed 1.7 percent, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday, less than the median forecast of 1.8 percent.It Could Be a Perfect Year for the Stock Market. Bouncing technology shares are putting a perfect year back within reach of the U.S. stock market. While short of a recovery, the advance in the market’s biggest industry has helped the S&P 500 Index rebound from four days of losses at the start of the month. The FANG group of Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc., Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. gained 1.4 percent over five days, retracing two-fifths of the worst weekly loss in five months.Bitcoin `Looks Remarkably Like A Bubble,’ New Zealand's Central Banker Warns. Bitcoin’s spectacular gains look like a speculative bubble and the cryptocurrency is too unstable to be useful in the future, New Zealand’s central banker said. “It looks remarkably like a bubble forming to me,” Reserve Bank of New Zealand Acting Governor Grant Spencer said in interview with TVNZ broadcast on Sunday. “Over the centuries we’ve seen bubbles, and this appears to be a bit of a classic case. With a bubble, you never know how far it’s going to go before it comes down.”Pharma Lobby Group Sues to Bar California's Drug Price Law.Wall Street Journal:  The Economy Revs Up. The jobless rate for non-high school grads is down to 5.2%.Snow Slows Down Much of the Normally Sunny Deep South. More than 400 flights were canceled at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport.Israel Carries Out Airstrikes on Hamas Following Fire From Gaza. Strikes come amid heightened tensions in wake of U.S. Embassy decision.Opioids: The Mother Who Knew Everything and Saw Nothing. MarketWatch.com:  Bitcoin futures: Here’s what you need to know.Fox News:  Touring Mississippi civil rights museum, Trump honors those 'who sacrificed so much'. (video)Trump says CNN was 'caught red handed' with fake news on WikiLeaks email. (video)CNBC:  Trump says US 'cannot afford' Roy Moore loss in Alabama.Retail landlords flex muscle as stores close, and Starbucks, Whole Foods emerge as losers.Iraq declares final victory in war against 'eternal enemy' Islamic State.Top VC deals: Baidu invests in electric vehicles, Gilead buys cancer-fighting start-up.Zero Hedge: Trump Lashes Out At "Fake News" CNN For "Vicious And Purposeful" Mistake, Demands Terminations.CNN Botches "Bombshell" Report "Proving" Collusion Between Trump Jr And Wikileaks.Wisconsin Governor Pushes Forward With Plan To Drug Test Food Stamp Recipients. Bulgaria Government Shocked To Discover It Owns $3 Billion In Bitcoin. Mueller's 'Right Hand Man' Represented Hillary Clinton IT Staffer Who Installed Her Illegal Server.More Evidence That Rising Minimum Wages Are Going To Crush The Restaurant Industry.Enron 2.0? ECB, Global Banks On The Hook For $21 Billion In Steinhoff Implosion. QE Unwind is Really Happening: Fed Assets Drop To Lowest Level In Over Three Years. America First (After All Of You...) - Mapping Billions Of Dollars In Foreign Aid.Obama Appointed Judge Mysteriously Recuses Himself From Michael Flynn Case.Watered Down And Delayed - European Bank Shares Love The Final Basel III Capital Rules.DOJ Launches Investigation Into Planned Parenthood Over Fetal Tissue Harvesting Practices.Deep State Drained: Top DOJ Official "Demoted" After Working With Fusion GPS To Push Trump Disinformation-Dossier.Weekend Reading: Recession Risk Hidden In Tax Bill.Precious Metals Pounded As Bitcoin Soars To Best Week Since 2013.Business Insider: A South Korean 'decapitation unit' aim[...]



Weekly Scoreboard*

2017-12-08T15:30:17.114-05:00

S&P 500 Index 2,648.04 +.33% The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.   IndicesDJIA 24,300.90 +.28%NASDAQ 6,837.73 +.07%Russell 2000 1,522.91 -.68%S&P 500 High Beta 41.90 +1.39% Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.92 +1.0% Wilshire 5000 27,410.65 +.21%Russell 1000 Growth 1,340.84 +.45%Russell 1000 Value 1,209.06 +.16%S&P 500 Consumer Staples 579.91 +.34%Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.4026 +.16% NYSE Technology 1,687.21 +.20%Transports 10,404.10 +2.38%Utilities 754.82 -1.49%Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 100.65 +2.79%MSCI Emerging Markets 45.73 -.51%HFRX Equity Hedge 1,244.14 -.92%HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,009.69 -.14%Sentiment/InternalsNYSE Cumulative A/D Line 310,243 -.13%Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -9 -964 Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 28.89 +58.91% CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 609,833 +5.68% CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,489,012 -.92% Total Put/Call .94 +22.1%OEX Put/Call 2.89 +188.7%ISE Sentiment 98.0 -5.45% NYSE Arms .59 -37.5%Volatility(VIX) 9.70 -15.84%S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.81 -3.64%G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.45 +.13%  Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.96 +1.14% Smart Money Flow Index 20,272.27 -1.51%ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.807 Trillion +.3%ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.507 BillionAAII % Bulls 36.9 +2.6%AAII % Bears 34.2 +8.2% Futures Spot PricesCRB Index 185.02 -3.01%Crude Oil 57.32 -1.84%Reformulated Gasoline 171.66 -1.0%Natural Gas 2.77 -9.32%Heating Oil 192.92 -.39%Gold 1,250.20 -2.67%Bloomberg Base Metals Index 193.98 -2.71% Copper 297.70 -3.80%US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Metric Tonne unch.China Iron Ore Spot 502.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes -8.06% Lumber 427.20 -1.76%UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,004.25 -2.88%EconomyAtlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.9% -60.0 basis points ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.9% +30.0 basis pointsPhilly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .2507 -5.5% US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 91.59 +10.76% S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 144.63 +.17%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.2 +5.1 points Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.10 -10.2 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.7 +6.9 points Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/13US Dollar Index 93.93 +1.12%MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,643.56 -.23%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.18 +.05% Yield Curve 58.50 -1.5 basis points10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.38% +2.0 basis pointsFederal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.397 Trillion -.01%U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.77 -4.12% Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 336.78 -.06% Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 3.44 -1.15%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 14.23 +3.19%Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 43.05 -6.02%Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.21 +2.96% South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 57.27 -1.42% Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 130.21 -2.50% iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.89 +.20%10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90% +2.0 basis pointsTED Spread 26.0 +3.0 basis points 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +1.25 basis points 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -60.75  -13.0 basis pointsN. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 51.10 -1.33%America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 373.0 +.82% European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 45.85 -3.21%Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 177.42 -2.11%CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 160.0 unch.M1 Money Supply $3.639 Trillion +.13% Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,052.70 +.9%4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 241,500 -750Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.4% unch.Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.94% +4.0 ba[...]



Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Retail Sector Strength

2017-12-08T14:51:19.991-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 9.65 -5.0% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.23 +.34% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.96 -1.5% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 36.82 -.24% ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -25.71%Total Put/Call .93 +12.0% NYSE Arms .60 -33.42% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.06 -1.16% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 373.0 +.39%European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.58 -2.05%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.44 -4.44%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.23 -.07%Emerging Market CDS Index 176.92 -.96%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.89 +.1% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 +.5 basis point TED Spread 26.0 +2.25 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -60.75 +2.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.99 +.11% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.28% unch.Yield Curve 58.5 +2.25 basis pointsChina Iron Ore Spot 502.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +1.93%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.20 +2.0 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.10 +.7 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 8.70 +6.4 points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 +1.0 basis point100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +84 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +17 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-12-08T13:37:51.243-05:00

Style Underperformer: Small-Cap Value +.4%Sector Underperformers: 1) Tobacco -.4% 2) Foods unch. 3) Papers unch.Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: LJPC, VECO, AOBC, PRTY, COO, OKTA and FIZZStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) SO 2) LC 3) DUST 4) S 5) CL Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) AOBC 2) VECO 3) LJPC 4) RGR 5) BLL Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-12-08T13:26:50.284-05:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Growth +.7%Sector Outperformers: 1) Biotech +2.2% 2) Steel +1.7% 3) Software +1.4% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:CLDR, AGX, DEA, SAGE, FANH, SAIC, UBIO, VNOM, CUTR, RDUS, VRX, JACK, Y, NUE, OLED, MTN, RBA, UNFI, ALXN, DQ, JP, LITE, IHG, ATRA, BSX, SCMP, CARA and RVNCStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) ETSY 2) VWO 3) OLED 4) UPS 5) FNSR Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) SAGE 2) OLED 3) CELG 4) VNTV 5) BSXCharts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-12-08T11:16:34.247-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Friday Watch

2017-12-07T20:28:07.174-05:00

Night Trading Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 unch.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.25 +.25 basis pointBloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.89 -.03%. S&P 500 futures +.01%. NASDAQ 100 futures +.09%. Morning Preview Links Earnings of Note Company/Estimate None of noteEconomic Releases8:30 am EST:The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for November is estimated to fall to 195K versus 261K in October.The Unemployment Rate for November is estimated to remain at 4.1%.Average Hourly Earnings MoM for November is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in October.10:00 am ESTWholesale Trade Sales MoM for October are estimated to rise +.3% versus a +1.32% gain in September. Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for December is estimated to rise to 99.0 versus 98.5 in November.Upcoming Splits None of noteOther Potential Market Movers The Govt. funding deadline, China Trade Balance report and the (STRA) investor day could also impact trading today.BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.[...]



Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Biotech/Tech Sector Strength

2017-12-07T15:20:27.449-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.43 -5.4% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.84 +.56% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.09 +.25% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.26 -.37% ISE Sentiment Index 189.0 +152.0%Total Put/Call .80 unch. NYSE Arms .93 -33.7% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.68 -.76% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 372.0 +.50%European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.58 -.16%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.60 -.55%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.24 +1.06%Emerging Market CDS Index 178.87 +.87%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.74 +.01% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 +1.25 basis points TED Spread 23.75 +4.0 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -63.0 -4.5 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.92 -.32% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.28% -1.0 basis pointYield Curve 56.25 +3.75 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $72.68/Metric Tonne unch. Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.20 +.3 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.40 -7.6 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.30 -.1 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 +1.0 basis point100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +167 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +6 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +42 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-12-07T14:57:01.098-05:00

Bloomberg:Trump to Release Infrastructure Plan in January, Official Says. President Donald Trump plans to keep pushing his legislative agenda in 2018 by releasing his long-promised infrastructure plan in early January, a senior administration official said. Infrastructure advocates question whether a Republican-led Congress will be able to pass a spending plan with enough federal funding if it’s already approved a tax measure that official estimates say would bloat the budget deficit. Some say the administration missed its best opportunity to deliver a meaningful public works initiative by not incorporating it into the tax bill, which is nearing approval. The GOP Must Crack These Four Tax Bill Disagreements.Consumer Comfort in U.S. Advances to a 13-Week High.Hedge Funds, Beware: You Might Be Relying on Illegal Data Feeds.Wall Street Journal:Jailed for a Text: China’s Censors Are Spying on Mobile Chat Groups. Authorities scour private chats on messaging apps for blacklisted words, sensitive images.Family Businesses Worry the Tax Overhaul Will Hurt Them. Grocery stores, small manufacturers and others say the new tax structure could put them at a disadvantage to big corporations.Ford(F) to Move Electric Car Production to Mexico, Tags U.S. Plant for Driverless Car. Auto maker plans to convert suburban Detroit factory into manufacturing hub for future driverless vehicles.Actually, Here’s Why Stocks Can Keep Going Up. Equities still offer a risk premium hard to find elsewhere.Value Stocks Over Growth Stocks? Fat Chance. Value stocks are at last trouncing growth shares. But it won’t last for long. Fox News:Top DOJ official demoted amid probe of contacts with Trump dossier firm.2 students killed, gunman dead after shooting at New Mexico high school.CNBC:Bitcoin trading on a traditional exchange begins Sunday night and some fear it is far from ready. (video)Billionaire Leon Cooperman: If Hillary Clinton had won the presidency, the US would be in a recession. (video)Sen. Cornyn signals GOP could tweak state and local deductions in final tax bill. (video)Apple(AAPL) is planning to launch a 6.3-inch iPhone with same screen as iPhone X: Report.Household wealth jumps to near $97 trillion, 72 percent higher than crisis level.Hedge fund billionaire Cooperman: The stock market is not overvalued yet. (video) Zero Hedge:Bitcoin Rebounds After Exchange 'Break' - Novogratz "Not Close To The End Of The Speculative Phase"."Irresponsible, Unwarranted": Saudis Condemn Trump's Jerusalem Recognition, Warn Of "Serious Consequences".Crackdown Comes To Wall Street: Morgan Stanley Fires Harold Ford Jr Over Alleged Sexual Misconduct.Government On Verge Of Shutdown As Democrats Refuse To Support Stopgap Plan.Senator Al Franken Officially Confirms His Resignation In Senate Speech.Banks Issue Last Minute Warning About Risks Of Bitcoin Futures, Ask Regulator For Review.Challenger Shows Worst November For Job Cuts Since 2012. (graph)Precious Metal Pounding Continues - Silver Now Red For 2017.Hamas Leader Calls For Third Intifada Following Trump's "Declaration Of War".Unemployed Americans Are The Most "Comfortable" In 16 Years. (graph)CFPB Reportedly Funneled Billions Into "Secret Democrat Slush Fund", Consultant Claims.Largest Crypto-Mining Exchange Confirms It Was Hacked, $62 Million In Bitcoin Stolen.An Angry Senator Grassley Lashes Out At FBI, DOJ In Fiery Senate Floor Speech.[...]



Bear Radar

2017-12-07T14:05:00.447-05:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Value +.3%Sector Underperformers: 1) Steel -1.2% 2) Tobacco -.9% 3) Shipping -.4%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: DLTH, AGX, IDT, VRNT, VRS, NYT, HRB and HIMXStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) CTSH 2) PCG 3) PXD 4) CL 5) LC Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) AGX 2) LC 3) SNCR 4) AVID 5) CTRP Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-12-07T13:44:12.807-05:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Growth +.9%Sector Outperformers: 1) Biotech +1.5% 2) Alt Energy +1.4% 3) Social Media +1.4% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:ENTL, HOME, SAGE, OSIS, TLRD, GEF, LULU, CONN, IMKTA, TRHC, SCMP, LE, ALOG, GWPH, NCS, SGH, KRO, RIOT, XOMA, EIX, TROX, FOX, KEYS, IGV, CTRN, IMMU, SHAK, XENT, HALO, RNG, SGH, TWOU, CMTL, CNCE, MTN, APTI, KRO, OKTA, FOXA and KLXIStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) TLRD 2) PAYX 3) UTX 4) TBT 5) CIEN Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) SAGE 2) LULU 3) SHAK 4) GEF 5) DPWCharts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-12-07T12:10:01.055-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Thursday Watch

2017-12-06T20:45:50.414-05:00

Night Trading Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 73.25 +.25 basis point.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 14.0 unch.Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.13 -.04%. S&P 500 futures +.21%. NASDAQ 100 futures +.36%. Morning Preview Links Earnings of Note Company/Estimate (CIEN)/.50(DG)/.94(JKS)/-.02(TTC)/.29(COO)/2.66(FNSR)/.30(UNFI)/.60Economic Releases 7:30 am ESTChallenger Job Cuts YoY for November.8:30 am EST:Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 240K versus 238K the prior week.Continuing Claims are estimated to fall to 1919K versus 1957K prior.12:00 pm EST3Q Household Change in New Worth. 3:00 pm ESTConsumer Credit for October is estimated to fall to $17.0B versus $20.83B in September.Upcoming Splits (PATK) 3-for-2Other Potential Market Movers The Eurozone Industrial Production report, weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, (PSMT) monthly sales report, (ANDE) investor day, (EW) investor conference, (SYY) investor day and the (FITB) investor day could also impact trading today.BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.[...]



Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Bargain-Hunting, Seasonal Strength, Technical Buying, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

2017-12-06T15:26:00.320-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.07 -2.29% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.96 -.6% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.03 +.5% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 37.49 -.13% ISE Sentiment Index 68.0 -38.7%Total Put/Call .85 +1.19% NYSE Arms 1.30 -15.52% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.97 +.47% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 369.0 +1.15%European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.69 +1.53%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.62 +.84%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 14.79 +.08%Emerging Market CDS Index 177.76 +1.08%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.73 +.02% 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 +.5 basis point TED Spread 19.75 -1.5 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -58.5 -5.75 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 73.15 -.28% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.29% -1.0 basis pointYield Curve 52.5 -1.5 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $72.68/Metric Tonne +3.67% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 62.90 -.2 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.0 +.6 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.40 +.6 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 unch.100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +123 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -33 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my tech/medical/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 75% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-12-06T15:04:48.451-05:00

Bloomberg: China's Debt-to-GDP Ratio 260%. (video)Steelmakers Surge on `Precedent-Setting' U.S. Import Ruling. U.S. Steel Corp. led gains among major American producers of the metal after the U.S. slapped duties on some Vietnamese alloys made with China imports. In a preliminary ruling, the Commerce Department found that corrosion-resistant steel and some cold-rolled metal from Vietnam made from products originating in China circumvented duty orders on those imports from China. The decision could pave the way for the U.S. to place duties on other countries that use Chinese steel.Copper Flashes Red as Stockpiles and Spreads Point Bearish. (video)Here’s Where the GOP Tax Plan Stands Right Now. (video)Retail Investors Just Made a Historic Move Into U.S. Stocks. Clients at TD Ameritrade added to stock holdings for a 10th straight month in November, driving a gauge of retail investor sentiment 15 percent higher to a record, according to the online brokerage’s website. That was the “largest single-month increase ever” in the firm’s IMX measure, as investors piled into an equity market that’s on pace for its best year since 2013.Investors Down in December Are Still Up Big For the Year. (video)Wall Street Journal: Trump Says U.S. Recognizes Jerusalem as Israel’s Capital. President says the move will advance the peace process; others have warned of the opposite effect.Socialism, Capitalism Seen in New Light by Younger Americans. Surveys show a leftward tilt, and pessimism about the future, among millennials.North Koreans Get Smartphones, and the Regime Keeps Tabs. Dictatorship allows wider use of mobile devices and embeds technology to limit and monitor their use.Home Depot(HD) to Launch $15 Billion Share Buyback Program. Home-improvement retailer also vowed to step up investments in its business.Fox News: Trump officially recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital, orders US embassy move. (video)CNBC: Trump: Government shutdown 'could happen' Saturday. (video)They're watching you: Malls tap new tech to track shoppers.Wal-Mart Stores(WMT) to change name to Walmart, as it shifts its focus to e-commerce.Greenspan compares bitcoin to Colonial America currency that eventually became worthless. (video)Meet CryptoKitties, the $100,000 digital beanie babies epitomizing the cryptocurrency mania.Stocks are off their highs, but BofA says keep buying. (video)Zero Hedge: ECB Caught In Sprawling Scandal After Bonds It Owns Implode.Trump Recognizes Jerusalem As Israel's Capital As Middle East Prepares For Violence.Al Franken To Make An Announcement Tomorrow After 11 Democratic Senators Demand Resignation."Declaration Of War": Trump Jerusalem Decision Sparks Outrage, Warning Of "A Fire With No End In Sight".Chuck Grassley Demands FBI Produce All Strzok Text Messages As Part Of Trump Anti-Bias Probe."Like Driving Into Hell" - Los Angeles' 405 Freeway Shutdown As Wildfires Spread. (pic)Arizona Citizens Tracked In Facial Recognition Database In First Step For 'REAL ID' Implementation.WTI/RBOB Extend Losses On Biggest Gasoline Build In 11 Months, Record Crude Production.BofA: "In Every Market Shock Since 2013 Central Banks Have Stepped In To Protect Markets".Higher Wage Hope Hammered As American Worker Compensation Slumps. (graph)Zandi Warns "Job Market Feels Like It Might Overheat" As Manufacturing Jobs Grow At Fastest Pace On Record."The Silence Breakers" - Time Reveals "Person Of The Year" 2017.World's Third Largest Shipb[...]



Bear Radar

2017-12-06T13:50:58.644-05:00

Style Underperformer: Small-Cap Growth -.4%Sector Underperformers: 1) Oil Service -2.5% 2) Shipping -1.5% 3) Gaming -1.1%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: OSIS, TROX, IDT, TMST, HQY, VEEV, CNTR, KRO, EDIT, ESPR, HIMX, TWLO and CCStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) IMMU 2) PCG 3) CLF 4) TROX 5) PSTG Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) TROX 2) OSIS 3) NAVG 4) CC 5) VNTR Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-12-06T13:28:27.638-05:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Growth +.1%Sector Outperformers: 1) Defense +1.4% 2) Software +1.0% 3) Retail +.3% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume: MDGL, AVAV, VRA, SCMP, PLAY, DVA, KLXI, IMMU, NOAH, OXM, AYX, TPX, PFGC, FSLR, GIII, PHI, WIRE, TITN, ITRI, CR, NEP, BMO, LULU, X and OAKStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) RCII 2) VWO 3) LOW 4) CCL 5) CIEN Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) AVAV 2) MDGL 3) FSLR 4) PLAY 5)RHCharts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]