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BETWEEN THE HEDGES



Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets



Updated: 2017-03-28T21:15:35.399-04:00

 



Wednesday Watch

2017-03-28T21:15:35.421-04:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:  Japan Retail Sales Rise Less Than Forecast, Slowing From January. Japan’s retail sales rose less than economists forecast in February, signaling that consumer spending is struggling to gain traction.Putting All Our Eggs in China's Basket Was a Mistake: UBS.Asia Stocks Outside Japan Rise, Oil Extends Gains. Asian stocks outside Japan built on gains for a second day as a rise in consumer confidence rekindled optimism in the strength of the U.S. economy. Equities in Australia, South Korea and New Zealand all rose after the S&P 500 Index posted its biggest gain in two weeks, lifted by data showing American consumers are more upbeat than any time since 2000. Energy producers climbed in Asia as crude topped $48 a barrel. Japanese stocks were lower. The yen traded at 111.17 per dollar as of 9:17 a.m. in Tokyo, after dropping 0.4 percent on Tuesday. The Topix fell 0.1 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.6 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index rose 0.2 percent. Hang Seng Index futures climbed 0.5 percent.Wall Street Journal: Russia Investigation Stalls in House. Lawmakers have called for GOP chairman to step aside.After GOP Health Bill’s Demise, More States Weigh Expanding Medicaid. Virginia, Maine and North Carolina are among the states taking steps toward growing their programs.Fox News: Shutdown threat returns after ObamaCare repeal meltdown. (video)CNBC: After-hours buzz: RH, SONC, VRTX & more.Congress just cleared the way for internet providers to sell your web browsing history.Fed's Powell says central bank still in 'wait-and-see' stance regarding Trump policies.Zero Hedge: DNC Asks Entire Staff For Resignation Letters.The Robots Win: Blackrock Bets On Computers Over Human Stock Pickers, Fires Dozens.Equity Research Faces "Major Disruption" As Study Finds "Less Than 1%" Of Reports Are Actually Read.And Now Fake Consumer Confidence Too: Gallup Says Confidence In The Economy "Tumbled". (graph) RBOB Tumbles After Lower Than Expected Gasoline Draw. (graph) 4 Factors Driving Oil Prices This Summer. (graph)Biggest VIX Crash Since Election Saves Dow From Worst Losing Streak In 39 Years. (graph)Business Insider: Mark Cuban says healthcare 'should be a right'.Here are 48 hedge fund terms every investor should know.Telegraph:  Britain is 
the least of Europe’s problems.Night Trading  Asian equity indices are unch. to +.50% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.25 -1.0 basis point.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.25 unch.Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.19 unch. S&P 500 futures +.03%. NASDAQ 100 futures +.06%. Morning Preview Links Earnings of Note Company/Estimate (PAYX)/.54(FUL)/.45(PRGS)/.27(WOR)/.64Economic Releases 10:00 am EST  Pending Home Sales MoM for February are estimated to rise +2.5% versus a -2.8% decline in January.  10:30 am EST Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory build of +1,027,780 barrels versus a +4,954,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -1,877,780 barrels versus a -2,811,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate supplies are estimated to fall by -1,250,000 barrels versus a -1,910,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.33% versus a +2.3% gain prior. Upcoming Splits None of noteOther Potential Market Movers The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report could also impact trading today.BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by financial and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.[...]



Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Tranport/Energy Sector Strength

2017-03-28T15:32:05.046-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.52 -7.84%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.42 -.09% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.20 unch. S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.98 -2.7%ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 unch.Total Put/Call 1.12 -7.44% NYSE Arms .80 -23.97% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.24 -.77% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 387.0 -3.41%European Financial Sector CDS Index 86.95 -1.47%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.19 -4.56%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.46 +.56%Emerging Market CDS Index 212.93 -.32%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.36 +.02%2-Year Swap Spread 33.25 -1.75 basis pointsTED Spread 38.0 -1.0 basis point 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.0 -1.25 basis pointsEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.19 -.38%3-Month T-Bill Yield .77% unch.Yield Curve 111.0 -1.0 basis pointChina Import Iron Ore Spot $82.01/Metric Tonne +.54%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 53.1 +.6 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 66.50 -1.2 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 41.80 -1.0 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 unch.53.5% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 58.3% chance at July 26 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +43 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +50 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech/retail sector longs   Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my (EEM) shortMarket Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-03-28T15:05:21.232-04:00

Bloomberg: European Stocks Rebound Ahead of Article 50 Trigger. (video)‘Deep Subprime’ Auto Loans Are Surging.Wall Street Journal:Tesla(TSLA) Gets Backing of Chinese Internet Giant Tencent. China’s most valuable company buys 5% stake in Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle maker ahead of ambitious launch of $35,000 sedan.Swipe by Swipe, Chinese Smartphone Users Flock to Risky Investments. Crowdfunding boosts a million companies in China, but losses by mom-and-pop investors are piling up; pitching Elegant Villa for $15,000.CNBC:Einhorn: If you believe in the Trump story, here's what you should really be investing in. (video)GOP House leaders say they are 'closer ' than ever to Obamacare repeal, but won't commit to timeline. (video)In a decade, many fast-food restaurants will be automated, says Yum Brands CEO.Apple(AAPL) could rally to $200 on new products, share buybacks, UBS says.Zero Hedge:NYC Retail Vacancies Soar Prompting Massive Rent Concessions.Bloomberg Terminal Subscribers Drop For Only Second Time In History. (graph)Meet SAM, Brick Laying Robot That Does The Work Of 6 Humans.Trump To Sign "Energy Independence" Order Killing Obama's Climate Change Initiatives.Cable Tumbles As Scottish Parliament Votes For 2nd Independence Referendum.$20 Trillion Debt – It's Time To Start Believing In The Impossible.Tuesday Humor: Richmond Fed Smashes Expectation by Six Standard Deviations. (graph)Consumer Confidence Soars To Highest Since The Peak Of The Dot-Com Bubble. (graph)Despite Soaring Rates, US Home Prices Accelerate At Fastest Pace In 3 Years. (graph)[...]



Bear Radar

2017-03-28T14:32:39.487-04:00

Style Underperformer: Small-Cap Growth +.5%Sector Underperformers: 1) Hospitals -3.7% 2) Gold & Silver -2.7% 3) Biotech -.3%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: FDS, PLSE, GG, FLXN and THC Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) JNK 2) RHT 3) CMCSA 4) CRC 5) EA Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) EXC 2) FTD 3) STZ 4) ADPT 5) PMD Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-03-28T14:18:14.407-04:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Value +1.0% Sector Outperformers: 1) Oil Service +2.4% 2) Road & Rail +2.0% 3) Banks +2.0% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:CBIO, SGBK, ZIONW, OMER, DRI, STOR, MZOR, RHT, CARA, ATRO, SGMS, TPIC, SBLK, HUN, SEDG, AGU, TEDU, SONC, EDIT, SHLD, CCL and COOLStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) MNKD 2) SGMS 3) TSRO 4) KMX 5) RHT Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) PSIX 2) GNK 3) CBI 4) RHT 5) SHLD Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-03-28T11:41:11.179-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Tuesday Watch

2017-03-27T22:32:56.105-04:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Earliest China Data Show Strong March Activity, Brighter Outlook. China’s economy is strengthening and the future looking brighter, according to the freshest readings from small domestic businesses and global financial professionals alike. Sales manager sentiment and confidence of small- and medium-sized enterprises jumped to the highest in almost two years, according to earliest private indicators for March. International market experts see a significantly stronger outlook and a gauge of manufacturing activity based on satellite imagery remains robust. Momentum across the world’s No. 2 economy has been rebounding since late last year as producer prices surged, industrial output picked up and property prices strengthened. That gives breathing room to policy makers looking to reduce the nation’s high leverage. Here’s what the earliest indicators show:How China's Bank Behemoths Make Money on the Debt War. As China ramps up its quest to conquer leverage, the banking sector is finding out that being a big fish pays -- literally. While smaller lenders grapple with soaring money-market rates -- some are said to have defaulted amid the tight liquidity -- their larger counterparts are poised for a windfall. Bigger banks are benefiting from higher borrowing costs given their status as net lenders in the interbank market, a situation that has Citigroup Inc. to Morgan Stanley favoring their shares. Large bank stocks have already returned double that of their smaller brethren so far this year.Evercore's Hyman Says China a Mess, Will ‘Blow Up’ at Some Point. (video) Credit Suisse CEO Says Considering Options to Plug Capital Hole. (video)Asian Stocks Climb as Worry Subsides; Yen Declines. Japan’s Topix index climbed with shares in Australia and South Korea, while Australian government bonds halted a rally. Friday’s decision to cancel voting on the U.S. health-care bill sent global stocks briefly into a tailspin on Monday as investors assessed the U.S. administration’s ability to enact reform. The dollar continued to claw back from the verge of erasing the rally spurred by Donald Trump’s election victory, the S&P 500 Index pared declines and the VIX Index fell on Monday. The yen slid 0.1 percent to 110.75 per dollar as of 9:28 a.m. in Tokyo. It’s only the second time in 11 sessions that the Japanese currency has fallen. The Topix index rose 1.1 percent, after Monday’s 1.3 percent tumble. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 0.9 percent and South Korea’s Kospi added 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.3 percent.Wall Street Journal: Congress Gears Up for Fight Over Spending After Failure of Health-Care Bill. Republicans worry they will need more Democratic votes than previously expected to avert a government shutdown.How to Engineer a Trump Boom. Cut taxes, deregulate, build roads, bridges and airports—and don’t start a 1930-style trade war.Amazon(AMZN) Delays Opening of Cashierless Store to Work Out Kinks. Retailer must fix glitches in technology that automatically charges customers.Foreign Investors Flock to Iran as U.S. Firms Watch on the Sidelines. European firms jump in on post-sanction deals, while American companies remain wary.Fox News: What's Next for House Freedom Caucus After Poe's Exit? (video)CNBC: After-hours buzz: RHT, DRI, TSRO & more.The 9 most in-demand jobs of 2017.Shares of Red Hat(RHT) surge on sales beat, positive earnings guidance.Zero Hedge: NY Fed: "Oil Prices Fell Due To Weakening Demand". (graph)Schiff Calls On House Intel Chair To Recuse Himself From Russia Probe; Nunes Refuses.Six Graphs That Reveal Big Problems For Student And Auto Loans. (graph)This Is What Trump's Revised Agenda Timeline Looks Like, In One Chart.Has Elon Musk Setup Tesla For An 'Epic Fail' With His Model 3 Production Guidance (Hint: Yes.Trump Asks [...]



Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Less Economic Optimism, Commodity Declines, Yen Strength, Financial/Energy Sector Weakness

2017-03-27T15:32:35.973-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: About EvenSector Performance: MixedVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 13.80 +1.7%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.46 -.02% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.20 +.99% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.17 -1.11%ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -17.82%Total Put/Call 1.12 -7.44% NYSE Arms .98 -15.4% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.80 -.08% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 401.0 -1.77%European Financial Sector CDS Index 88.25 -.85%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 11.72 -4.75%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.38 +1.66%Emerging Market CDS Index 213.59 +.75%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.34 +.09%2-Year Swap Spread 35.0 -2.0 basis pointsTED Spread 39.0 unch. 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.75 +3.75 basis pointsEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.42 -.13%3-Month T-Bill Yield .77% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 112.0 -3.0 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $81.57/Metric Tonne -4.1%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.5 -1.6 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 67.70 -2.1 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 42.80 -2.2 points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point50.2% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 56.3% chance at July 26 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +55 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +33 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +46 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech/retail sector longs  and index hedges Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedgesMarket Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-03-27T14:37:33.150-04:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Value -.5%Sector Underperformers: 1) Steel -1.5% 2) I-Banks -1.2% 3) REITs -.9%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: GIII, XBIT, CMCM, SEE, HIIQ, NOAH, WAGE, NTGR, SWIR, TAL, MS, AMID, ITGR, SNCR and BAS Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) BK 2) DD 3) S 4) KRE 5) PTCT Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) AES 2) ITW 3) MS 4) SCHW 5) BHI Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-03-27T14:17:16.372-04:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Growth unch. Sector Outperformers: 1) Gaming +2.0% 2) Hospitals +1.4% 3) Gold & Silver +1.3% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:APOP, PLSE, PRTK, IPXL, NVMI, HCA, AAOI, DSW, SEDG, PENN, TTD, UHS, ACHC, RACE, BKD, ASPS, MDRX, OMER, ACHC and CAFDStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) CCL 2) CERN 3) RHT 4) SNAP 5) MA Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) FLS 2) HCA 3) BBY 4) UHS 5) VRTX Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual VolumeB[...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-03-27T10:15:12.111-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Monday Watch

2017-03-26T22:48:50.557-04:00

Today's Headlines Bloomberg:Trump Said to Issue Far-Reaching Reversal of Obama Climate Push. President Donald Trump is set to sign a sweeping executive order on Tuesday aimed at promoting domestic oil, coal and natural gas by reversing much of his predecessor’s efforts to address climate change. The document lays out a broad blueprint for the Trump administration to dismantle the architecture that former President Barack Obama built to combat the phenomenon, according to details shared with Bloomberg News. Some of the changes would happen immediately, while others would take years to complete. The order will compel federal agencies to quickly identify any actions that could burden the production or use of domestic energy resources, including nuclear power, and then work to suspend, revise or rescind the policies unless they are legally mandated, are necessary for the public interest or promote development. Momentum Builds for Yen to Break 110. The most oversold Group-of-10 currency since the U.S. election is making a comeback. A reassessment on the likelihood of pro-growth policies in the U.S. and a series of domestic and technical factors have combined to reignite buying interest in the yen, and analysts see more upside. Rising Japanese real interest rates, the yen’s haven status from global political uncertainty and technical signals monitored by foreign exchange traders have helped the currency rebound 7 percent from December lows against the dollar. Momentum is building and a further 2 percent rise to 108 yen per dollar is possible by June, according to market participants.Dollar, S&P 500 Futures Drop. The dollar and U.S. equity futures built on Friday’s declines and gold climbed as investors shunned risk assets amid increased skepticism of U.S. President Donald Trump’s ability to implement his economic agenda after last week’s failed U.S. health-care deal. The yen rose 0.8 percent to 110.51 per dollar. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.3 percent. Japan’s Topix lost 0.9 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index retreated 0.5 percent, led by a slide in materials producers.Wall Street Journal: White House Opens Door to Democrats in Wake of Health-Bill Failure. Move signals Trump administration is fed up with many factions in House Republican conference.Republicans’ Tax Overhaul Could Face Its Own Slings and Arrows. Rewriting the U.S. tax code may appear easier than tackling health care, but there may be other squabbles, hurdles and difficult trade-offs. How Democrats Aided in the Demise of the GOP’s Health Bill. Supporters of Obamacare launched an all-out campaign for its survival.Iraq Military Contradicts Claim U.S.-Led Coalition Airstrike Killed Civilians, Blames Islamic State. Statement says blast triggered by a militant booby trap, not a coalition airstrike, killed scores of civilians in Mosul.Powering America’s Manufacturing Renaissance: Foreign Robots. The U.S. is being beaten by European and Japanese firms in the race to supply cutting-edge production machinery behind the new automated factory floor.Chinese Conglomerate HNA to Buy Stake in U.S. Asset Manager. HNA Capital US to pay about $446 million for share in Old Mutual unit OM Asset Management.Iran Slaps Sanctions on 15 U.S. Companies as Animosity Grows. Raytheon, Magnum Research among the companies affected by sanctions from Tehran. Fox News:  Cincinnati nightclub shooting: 1 dead, 15 people injured. (video)Priebus on ObamaCare overhaul: It’s time for GOP to 'start governing’. (video)Freedom Caucus' Jordan: End ObamaCare blaming, ‘Let’s get to work’. (video)CNBC: China finds a new source of cutting-edge military technology: US startups.France's Le Pen says euro exit 'woul[...]



Weekly Outlook

2017-03-26T22:29:19.700-04:00

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield debt angst, tax reform/deregulation/infrastructure spending worries, commodity weakness, yen strength, less economic optimism and technical selling. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.
(image)



Today's Headlines

2017-03-25T23:21:40.614-04:00

Bloomberg: U.S. Stocks Post Worst Week Since Election as Health Bill Fails. The Trump Trade just took a big hit. U.S. stocks fell the most since the week leading up to the U.S. election as President Donald Trump suffered a major setback when he was forced to pull his health-care bill from a vote amid dissent among congressional Republicans. Investors also turned to bonds as U.S. Treasuries rallied for the second week. Both conservatives and moderates opposed the bill even after Trump met personally with scores of lawmakers and traveled to Capitol Hill on Tuesday to address House Republicans. The setback also cast doubt on the president’s ability to shepherd other parts of his agenda, including promised tax cuts and regulatory reform, through Congress. The S&P 500 lost 1.4 percent to end at 2,343.98, its second weekly decline this month. While the benchmark for American equities hasn’t posted a daily 1-percent gain in more than three weeks, it’s down just 2.2 percent from its record high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.5 percent to 20,596.72 as small-cap stocks in the Russell 200 Index erased 2.7 percent.Mexico Will Hedge Oil Export Prices for Next Year, Rubio Says. Mexico plans “without a doubt" to protect the country against low crude prices for next year, Deputy Finance Minister Vanessa Rubio said in an interview, in a continuation of what’s become the world’s largest commodities hedging program. The amount of Mexico’s export basket to be protected through market operations, versus through its stabilization fund, has yet to be determined, Rubio said in an interview on the sidelines of a banking conference in Acapulco. All options are open to reduce volatility of the peso, which is undervalued when economic fundamentals are taken into account, Rubio added. Mexico, the world’s 11th-largest oil producer, spent $1 billion last year to buy put options that lock in an average price for its exports this year, and set aside close to $1 billion more from its budget stabilization fund to effectively guarantee oil revenue of $42 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude for May delivery closed Friday at $47.97 a barrel.Uber to Suspend Autonomous Tests After Arizona Accident. Uber Technologies Inc. is suspending its self-driving car program after one of its autonomous vehicles was involved in a high-impact crash in Tempe, Arizona, the latest incident for a company reeling from multiple crises.America’s 100 Richest Places.Wall Street Journal: With GOP Plan Dead, Trump Weighs Other Ways to Reshape Health Care. Republicans have ability to make changes to Affordable Care Act but do so at their own risk.Google’s(GOOGL) YouTube Has Continued Showing Brands’ Ads With Racist and Other Objectionable Videos. PepsiCo, Wal-Mart, Dish Network say they are suspending Google non-search ads.Barron's: Had bullish commentary on (VIAB), (GM) and (YHOO). Had bearish commentary on (SPG). Fox News: Divided GOP makes dismantling ObamaCare little more than campaign promise. (video)CNBC: Fate of OPEC's output cut will depend on how market responds, Iraq's oil minister says.World looks to China for growth but it has its own problems at home.Robots, artificial intelligence boom may cost US, UK at least 1/3 of their jobs: Study.Oil could collapse into the $30s if OPEC doesn't keep its act together.Zero Hedge: "They're Like The Praetorian Guard" - Whistleblower Confirms NSA Targeted Congress, The Supreme Court, & Trump."Policy Error" Is Back: Deutsche Warns Two Things Can Derail The Market's "Most Crowded Trades".Goldman: "The Boost From Lower Taxes Will Now Be Smaller, Occur Later Than Expected".New Hedge Fund Fee Structures Reveal Trad[...]



Market Week in Review

2017-03-24T15:45:08.118-04:00

S&P 500 2,337.99 -1.13%* The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com. *5-Day Change[...]



Weekly Scoreboard*

2017-03-24T15:35:41.287-04:00

IndicesS&P 500 2,337.99 -1.13%DJIA 20,549.30 -1.30%NASDAQ 5,817.91 -.99%Russell 2000 1,349.17 -2.32%S&P 500 High Beta 36.30 -2.09% Goldman 50 Most Shorted 117.22 -1.38% Wilshire 5000 24,231.50 -1.38%Russell 1000 Growth 1,130.69 -.77%Russell 1000 Value 1,119.75 -1.63%S&P 500 Consumer Staples 561.45 -.61%Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.2859 -1.46% Morgan Stanley Technology 1,360.72 -.46%Transports 8,905.66 -2.19%Utilities 704.91 +1.41%Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 95.88 -.88%MSCI Emerging Markets 39.66 +.47%HFRX Equity Hedge 1,181.20 -.69%HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,000.86 +.11%Sentiment/InternalsNYSE Cumulative A/D Line 280,808 -.18%Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 125 -587Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 25.0 -57.6% CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 433,800 -14.69% CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,240.261 +4.81% Total Put/Call 1.24 +32.99%OEX Put/Call 1.35 -65.29%ISE Sentiment 101.0 +46.38%NYSE Arms 1.43 -31.25%Volatility(VIX) 13.28 +14.6%S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.29 +5.48%G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.11 +5.82%Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.11 +3.85% Smart Money Flow Index 19,514.02 -1.19%ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.654 Trillion -.87%ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$2.866 BillionAAII % Bulls 35.3 +13.2%AAII % Bears 30.5 -21.2% Futures Spot PricesCRB Index 183.43 -.67%Crude Oil 47.97 -1.97%Reformulated Gasoline 160.48 +.10%Natural Gas 3.07 +3.68%Heating Oil 149.90 -1.25%Gold 1,248.40 +1.58%Bloomberg Base Metals Index 178.67 -.69% Copper 263.50 -2.30%US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 277.0 USD/Ton unch.China Iron Ore Spot 85.06 USD/Ton -7.88%Lumber 376.60 +3.97%UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,114.60 -2.32%EconomyAtlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +1.0% +10.0 basis pointsECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +9.0% -60.0 basis pointsPhilly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.1395 +2.04% S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 133.35 +.23%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.10 -2.0 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.80 +21.7 pointsCiti Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.0 -8.3 points Fed Fund Futures imply 86.7% chance of no change 13.3% chance of 25 basis point hike on 5/3US Dollar Index 99.64 -.71%MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,581.65 +.42% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.15 -.99% Yield Curve 115.0 -3.0 basis points10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.40% -10.0 basis pointsFederal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.439 Trillion +.18%U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.60 -3.69% Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 395.0 +1.47% Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 12.30 -17.14% (new series)Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 21.04 -17.0%Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.16 -21.78%Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 71.09 +16.82% Iraq Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 525.32 +.02% Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 175.84 +8.26% iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.22 +.23%10-Year TIPS Spread 1.99% -3.0 basis pointsTED Spread 39.0 -3.25 basis points 2-Year Swap Spread 37.0 +3.25 basis points 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -4.75 basis pointsN. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 67.24 +9.39% America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 408.0 +6.66% European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 89.24 +4.74%Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 213.53 +4.34%CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 142.50 +1.0 basis pointM1 Money Supply $3.453 Trillion +2.17% Commercial Paper Outstanding 965.70 +.40%4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 240,000 +2,750Continuing Cl[...]



Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Healthcare/Tax Reform Worries, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, Financial/Retail Sector Weakness

2017-03-24T15:21:44.428-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Light Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 13.40 +2.13%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.05 +.13% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.11 -.65% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 49.01 +1.03%ISE Sentiment Index 104.0 -2.0%Total Put/Call 1.24 +9.73% NYSE Arms 1.49 -8.55% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 67.93 -.77% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 408.0 +.15%European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.0 -1.07%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.31 +1.40%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 20.95 -1.60%Emerging Market CDS Index 212.82 -1.70%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.22 -.05%2-Year Swap Spread 37.0 +.5 basis pointTED Spread 39.0 -.5 basis point 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 +3.0 basis pointsEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.47 +.36%3-Month T-Bill Yield .76% unch.Yield Curve 115.0 -2.0 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $85.06/Metric Tonne -1.51%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 54.10 -1.6 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 69.80 +28.1 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 45.0 -1.7 points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.98 +1.0 basis point50.2% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 57.2% chance at July 26 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -167 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +29 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +13 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs  and index hedges Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedgesMarket Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-03-24T11:52:07.440-04:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Value +.3%Sector Underperformers: 1) Steel -.6% 2) Paper -.4% 3) Energy -.3%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: FINL, BLCM, USCR, RARE and GME Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) THC 2) CRC 3) GME 4) MYL 5) UA Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) TDG 2) TSO 3) JCI 4) DV 5) BBBY Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-03-24T11:37:47.615-04:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Growth +.6% Sector Outperformers: 1) Hospitals +3.0% 2) Disk Drives +1.7% 3) Semis +1.5% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:HTGM, MU, MZOR, CSTE, AYA, WDC, AAOI, BRTU, EGHT, PLSE, PZZA, SINA, DXCM, COMM, SEAS, HCLP, SKX and VRTUStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) RHT 2) ETP 3) MU 4) GME 5) CREE Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) UA 2) MU 3) WDC 4) PVH 5) ADBE Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-03-24T10:20:34.006-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Friday Watch

2017-03-23T21:42:34.240-04:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg: China's Big-City Homeowners in Austerity Mode Are Weighing on Retail. Last December, Li Qinglei and his wife purchased a 114-square-meter home in western Beijing by taking out a 5.5 million yuan ($800,000) home loan and borrowing more than 1 million yuan from family and friends. Then, they shifted into full-on austerity mode.Caution Abates in Asia as Yen Drops, Stocks Rise: Markets Wrap. Japan’s Topix index climbed, recovering some of this week’s slide, as the yen dropped for the first time in nine days. South Korean equities rose with Australian shares, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Index extended this week’s gains. The S&P 500 Index had a turbulent Thursday after a delay on a vote on U.S. health care raised speculation President Donald Trump may struggle with other policies. The yen lost 0.2 percent to 111.16 per dollar as of 9:25 a.m. in Tokyo after eight days of gains. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose less than 0.1 percent. The Topix index rose 0.4 percent, paring this week’s loss to 1.9 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index advanced 0.1 percent. Hang Seng futures rose 0.3 percent. Wall Street Journal: House Republicans Postpone Planned Vote on Health-Care Bill. Last-minute negotiations and lobbying fail to lock down majority support for floor vote on Thursday. Did Obama Abuse Raw Intelligence? I couldn’t have seen those transcripts when I led the House intel committee.GameStop(GME) Closing At Least 150 Stores Amid Sales Decline. Videogame retailer ending quarterly guidance on two key performance indicators to focus on long-term reinvention targets. Eric Mindich’s Eton Park Hedge Fund to Close Down. Poor performance among the issues hurting fund run by youngest partner in Goldman Sachs history. Fox News: Potential 'smoking gun' showing Obama administration spied on Trump team, source says. (video)MarketWatch:  The Dow’s tumultuous 120-year history, in one chart.CNBC: Trump said to be done negotiating, demands Friday health-care vote. (video)Head of House Freedom Caucus says GOP needs 30 to 40 votes more to pass Obamacare replacement. (video)China’s big five banks to report 2016 earnings next week, here’s what to expect.Trader makes $1 million bet that homebuilders will continue to rally. (video) After-hours buzz: MU, GME KBH and more.Zero Hedge: NSA To Provide "Smoking Gun" Proof Obama Spied On Trump.Ford(F) Warns "Used Car Prices Will Drop For Years".5 Maps That Show China's Biggest Limitations.The "Retail Apocalypse" Is Officially Descending Upon America.Are Enviro's Trying To Kill Farming In California? 2017 Water Allocations Imply 'Yes'.Wikileaks Releases "NightSkies 1.2": Proof CIA Bugs "Factory Fresh" iPhones.People Are Ditching Chicago In Record Numbers As Windy City Leads U.S. In Population Loss.Vote Fiasco Leads To Longest Dow Losing Streak Since Election, VIX At 2017 Highs. (graph)Business Insider: Westminster attacker Khalid Masood was a career criminal whose neighbours called him 'the vampire'.A Fed official warns that another real estate bubble could collapse financial stability.Telegraph: Jean-Claude Juncker thinks he has Britain over a barrel. Au contraire, mon ami: we'll be just fine without you.Night Trading  Asian equity indices are unch. to +.5% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.75 -1.75 basis points.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 21.25 +.25 basis point.Bloomberg Emerging Markets C[...]



Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Healthcare/Tax Reform Worries, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Metals&Mining/Energy Sector Weakness

2017-03-23T15:59:36.271-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Substantially HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 12.83 +.16%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.94 -.32% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.24 +.43% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.46 +1.51%ISE Sentiment Index 102.0 +22.9%Total Put/Call 1.11 +14.43% NYSE Arms 1.68 +42.94% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.07 -.92% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 408.0 -.68%European Financial Sector CDS Index 89.96 -2.0%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 12.14 -2.29%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 21.29 +1.38%Emerging Market CDS Index 216.23 -.63%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 136.28 +.18%2-Year Swap Spread 36.5 +1.0 basis pointTED Spread 39.50 +.5 basis point 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.5 -.25 basis pointEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.22 -.04%3-Month T-Bill Yield .76% unch.Yield Curve 117.0 +1.0 basis pointChina Import Iron Ore Spot $86.36/Metric Tonne +1.61%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 55.70 +1.3 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 41.70 -1.6 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 46.70 -.3 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.97 -1.0 basis point52.6% chance of Fed rate hike at June 14 meeting, 57.5% chance at July 26 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -90 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -2 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail sector longs  Disclosed Trades: NoneMarket Exposure: 50% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-03-23T13:48:35.758-04:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Growth Unch.Sector Underperformers: 1) Steel -1.6% 2) Gold & Silver -.9% 3) Gaming -.5%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: OEC, MMSI, CTMX, PTC, RARE, CDEV, PFPT, ACN, Z, GOGO, BLCM and SLW Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) SWC 2) NUS 3) HCA 4) MO 5) HRB Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) CNC 2) DG 3) NSC 4) GOOGL 5) MO Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-03-23T13:33:51.648-04:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Value +1.0% Sector Outperformers: 1) Hospitals +1.4% 2) Retail +1.1% 3) REITs +.9% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:FLXN, LKSD, KEYS, PENN, FIVE, EEQ, LJPC, FEYE, PVH, MLHR, CWST, EGN, AFSI, FINL, SCS, CMC, VRNS, RACE, NKE, SWIR, EEQ, ARRS, INSY and RPTStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) GGP 2) XLK 3) PYPL 4) FEYE 5) CSX Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) CHK 2) PVH 3) NKE 4) CPB 5) CTAS Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-03-23T11:12:40.028-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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