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BETWEEN THE HEDGES



Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets



Updated: 2017-11-18T18:32:13.413-05:00

 



Weekly Scoreboard*

2017-11-17T15:13:45.688-05:00

S&P 500 2,581.23 -.04%The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.   IndicesDJIA 23,367.70 -.24%NASDAQ 6,785.50 +.55%Russell 2000 1,492.74 +1.19%S&P 500 High Beta 40.31 +.50% Goldman 50 Most Shorted 131.53 +1.4% Wilshire 5000 26,738.50 +.12%Russell 1000 Growth 1,314. +.11%Russell 1000 Value 1,172.44 -.02%S&P 500 Consumer Staples 564.25 +1.0%Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3772 -.39% NYSE Technology 1,712.94 +1.48%Transports 9,500.20 unch.Utilities 759.10 +.32%Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 97.73 -1.79%MSCI Emerging Markets 46.87 +.99%HFRX Equity Hedge 1,235.69 -.75%HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,009.86 -.17%Sentiment/InternalsNYSE Cumulative A/D Line 306,441 -.22%Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 311 +255 Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 13.89 -58.3% CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 545,206 +8.4% CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,601,977 +3.67% Total Put/Call .76 -33.62%OEX Put/Call .55 -36.25%ISE Sentiment 89.0 +8.43% NYSE Arms .66 -21.59%Volatility(VIX) 11.43 +1.15%S&P 500 Implied Correlation 16.17 -14.96%G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.40 +3.06%Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.95 -2.33% Smart Money Flow Index 20,273.28 +.80%ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.739 Trillion -.05%ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.313 BillionAAII % Bulls 29.4 -34.9%AAII % Bears 35.2 +52.6% Futures Spot PricesCRB Index 190.43 -.67%Crude Oil 56.55 -.9%Reformulated Gasoline 175.02 -4.48%Natural Gas 3.1 -3.04%Heating Oil 195.02 +.21%Gold 1,295.40 +1.50%Bloomberg Base Metals Index 199.66 -1.83% Copper 307.05 -.16%US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 258.33 USD/Metric Tonne unch.China Iron Ore Spot 62.61 USD/Ton +.02%Lumber 439.70 -3.02%UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,035.81 +.02%EconomyAtlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.4% +10.0 basis points ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 2.7% -50.0 basis pointsPhilly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index .4297 -6.77% US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 106.88 -37.87% S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 143.63 +.17%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.0 +17.5 points Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.90 unch. Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.50 +.4 point Fed Fund Futures imply 0.0% chance of no change, 100.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 12/13US Dollar Index 93.61 -.82%MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,629.86 +.32%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.80 -.18% Yield Curve 62.0 -12.0 basis points10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.34% -6.0 basis pointsFederal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.409 Trillion -.24%U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 24.75 unch.Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 337.30 -.05% Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 3.90 -3.7%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 15.75 -1.25%Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 48.70 -6.99%Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 58.87 +1.64% South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 65.62 -8.14% Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 134.01 -4.24% iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.33 +.08%10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88% -3.0 basis pointsTED Spread 17.0 -1.75 basis points 2-Year Swap Spread 16.5 -3.75 basis points 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 -.25 basis pointN. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 55.16 -1.16%America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 380.0 +4.38% European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 51.21 -1.65%Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 184.25 -4.07%CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 155.0 +2.0 basis pointsM1 Money Supply $3.566 Trillion -.43% Commercial Paper Outstanding 1,032.60 -1.8%4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 237,750 +6,500Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% -10.0 basis pointsAverage 30-Year Mortgage Rate 3.95% +5.0 basis pointsWeekly Mortgage Applications 401.70 +3.08%Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 52.1 +.6 pointWeekly Retail Sales +2.5% -10.0 basis points Nationwide Gas $2.56/gallon unch.Baltic Dry Index 1,361.0 -7.04%China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 794.47 +1.30% Oil [...]



Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking,Technical Selling,Yen Strength, Transport/Healthcare Provider Sector Weakness

2017-11-17T14:46:30.045-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: Most Sectors RisingVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.46 -2.55% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 137.88 -.59% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.92 -2.33% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 16.30 -15.0% ISE Sentiment Index 95.0 +8.4%Total Put/Call .76 -33.6% NYSE Arms .65 -21.59% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.09 -.97% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 379.0 -2.53%European Financial Sector CDS Index 51.03 -2.30%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.91 -1.76%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.87 -1.31%Emerging Market CDS Index 186.86 unch.iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.33 -.02% 2-Year Swap Spread 16.50 -1.5 basis points TED Spread 17.0 +.75 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -48.0 +1.0 basis point Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.94 +.36% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.27% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 62.5 -2.75 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $62.61/Metric Tonne +.02% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 56.0 +11.8 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.90 -.7 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.50 +1.6 points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 unch.100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -59 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -3 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-11-17T13:08:19.366-05:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Growth -.1%Sector Underperformers: 1) Road & Rail -.6% 2) Utilities -.5% 3) Healthcare Providers -.4%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: WSM, BITA, PCAR, ALSN, VERI and ALSNStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) ANF 2) WSM 3) SPLK 4) UBNT 5) CBS Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) WSM 2) FCAU 3) KMX 4) MON 5) BWLD Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-11-17T12:56:44.413-05:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Value +.6%Sector Outperformers: 1) Retail +2.7% 2) Oil Service +1.8% 3) Social Media +1.6% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:SCVL, SPLK, CBS, FL, ANF, CORI, GLOB, HRG, HIBB, NTES, SQ, TLND, FANH, STAA, URBN, GPS, LSXMA, DPLO, FOXA, RVNC, ROST, DERM, BKE, VTWO, LXFT, TELL, VIAB, DSW, CYTK, AXGN, SABR, LGF/A, LTM, FOXA, GES, GDI, TGT, TLRD, HRG, TIME and ETMStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) OLN 2) VLO 3) ANF 4) SPLK 5) OCLR Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) ANF 2) SPLK 3) FL 4) NTES 5) SCVL Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-11-17T11:01:21.830-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Friday Watch

2017-11-16T22:01:49.924-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Saudi Arabia Says OPEC Should Extend Cuts in Meeting This Month. (video) Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister said OPEC and its allies should announce an extension of their output curbs when they gather at the end of this month. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is unlikely to reduce excess oil inventories to average levels by the time the current deal expires in late March, said Minister Khalid Al-Falih, speaking at the United Nations climate talks in Bonn, Germany. Russia, allied with OPEC in the deal, isn’t convincedit’s necessary to make a decision when the producers meet on Nov. 30, people familiar with the matter said this week.India's Credit Rating Upgraded by Moody's in Boost for Modi. Moody’s Investors Service raised India’s sovereign bond rating for the first time since 2004, citing continued progress in economic and institutional reforms. The ratings firm upgraded India to Baa2 from Baa3 and said reforms being pushed through by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government will help stabilize rising levels of debt. That’s a shift from Moody’s lowest investment-grade ranking to the second lowest. The surprise move comes even as India surrendered its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy amid sweeping policy change. Growth slipped below 6 percent in the April-June quarter, sparking expectations that the government will need to unleash fiscal stimulus. Markets welcomed the move, even as some cautioned the response will be limited given the ongoing challenges that the economy faces.Block Porn or Be Blocked, Indonesia Warns Google(GOOGL), Twitter(TWTR). (video) Indonesia has threatened to bar the world’s biggest social-media providers from operating in the country unless they comply with stringent demands to filter pornography and other content deemed obscene.Stocks Climb After Tumultuous Week; Dollar Falls. (video) Shares in Japan jumped for a second day as technology companies gave the biggest boost to the Topix index. Equity gauges in Hong Kong, Australia and South Korea also rose. The dollar declined for a fourth day and the Korean won added to a rally that has taken it to the strongest in more than a year, prompting officials to caution about the pace of the gain. Indian stock futures gained after Moody’s Investors Service raised the nation’s credit rating, citing progress on economic and institutional reforms. The Topix climbed 0.8 percent as of 10:59 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 1.3 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent and the Kospi index in Seoul was up 0.8 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index jumped 0.9 percent. The Shanghai Composite Index was down 0.3 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Lynn Tilton Accused of Withholding Funds After Portfolio Defaults. After being cleared of wrongdoing in a case by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, New York financier Lynn Tilton faces new claims over how she ran her distressed companies in a lawsuit by three funds she once created and managed to raise money for her portfolio.Wall Street Journal: GOP Tax Plan: Live Coverage.How to Invent A Middle-Class Tax Hike. A case study in how Washington math distorts reality.Judge Declares a Mistrial in Sen. Bob Menendez Corruption Trial. A federal jury said it couldn’t reach a verdict in the New Jersey Democrat’s case.MarketWatch.com: Fund manager looks beyond ‘FAANG’ stocks and finds even bigger winners for 2018.This one chart sums up what’s happening to America’s ‘good’ jobs. Fox News: 'Unacceptable': Democrats turn on Franken over groping allegations. (video)Roy Moore goes on offense against McConnell, as state party backs bid. (video)CNBC: Small-caps rally with House vote on tax bill and look to Washington for even more juice.Comcast(CMCSA) is in talks with 21st Century Fox(FOXA) a[...]



Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Earnings Outlooks, Economic Optimism, Retail/Tech Sector Strength

2017-11-16T15:33:53.067-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Substantially HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.72 -10.74% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.56 -.14% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.10 unch. S&P 500 Implied Correlation 17.52 -24.19% ISE Sentiment Index 97.0 -33.56%Total Put/Call .90 -11.76% NYSE Arms 1.24 +40.9% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.50 -2.94% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 388.0 -1.86%European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.27 -1.95%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.98 +.76%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.09 +.75%Emerging Market CDS Index 186.32 -3.74%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.36 +.02% 2-Year Swap Spread 18.0 +.25 basis point TED Spread 16.25 +.75 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.0 -1.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.67 +.48% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.26% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 65.25 -.5 basis pointChina Import Iron Ore Spot $61.57/Metric Tonne -.44% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.20 +8.7 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.60 -.7 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.90 +.1 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.89 +1.0 basis point100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +265 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +58 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +45 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my medical/tech/biotech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-11-16T13:00:04.659-05:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Value +.6%Sector Underperformers: 1) Utilities -.3% 2) Energy -.3% 3) Insurance -.3%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: CHFS, APPN, AXGN, DPLO, BBY, BITA, VIAB, BZH and MTORStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) ARNC 2) TWX 3) COP 4) HRB 5) ANF Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) DPLO 2) PAY 3) OII 4) GE 5) UA Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-11-16T12:47:37.412-05:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Growth +1.9%Sector Outperformers: 1) Computer Hardware +3.6% 2) Disk Drives +3.1% 3) Airlines +2.2% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:GDI, AMWD, IEFA, JELD, FND, TIME, GTHX, CBS, XNET, AFAM, NTAP, RH, SPB, SHPG, LHCG, MANU, WMT, HCM, MD, CNCE, ROK, HRG, ASML, CSCO, NTES, SGH, MRTX, DBD, MDP, COLL, SJM, MD, GOGO, EZPW, BOOT, BL, XON, EXTR, OSTK, AYX, CALA, ESIO, VREX, HRC, FRPT, TMUS, ROK, BERY, INCR, IGT, NKTR, MTSI and HRTXStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) NTAP 2) XLP 3) WMT 4) FXI 5) RH Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) NTAP 2) SPTN 3) WMT 4) CSCO 5) NTES Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-11-16T10:57:27.336-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Thursday Watch

2017-11-15T22:06:48.079-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg: Australia's Jobless Rate Falls to Lowest in More Than Four Years. Australia’s jobless rate unexpectedly fell in October as fewer people sought work, while full-time positions that have driven hiring this year extended their surge.3 Charts to Know: Time to Buy the Dip in Stocks? (video)Stock Slide Pauses in Asia; Aussie Bonds Advance. (video) Benchmarks in Japan fluctuated after the Topix index on Wednesday recorded its biggest drop since March. Australia’s benchmark opened little changed. The S&P 500 Index pared the worst of Wednesday’s losses as bank shares rallied, but that wasn’t enough to overcome the biggest drop in two months for U.S. equities. The gap between two-year and 10-year U.S. yields shrank to a fresh low for 2017, a potential concern given how a flattening in the yield curve has sometimes served as a precursor to an economic downturn. The Topix index swung between gains and losses as of 9:11 a.m. in Tokyo. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index was flat. South Korea’s markets will open an hour later because of national exam day. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index futures climbed 0.4 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)S&P 500 Bears Are Back. (graph)Cisco(CSCO) Sees First Revenue Growth in Eight Quarters; Shares Up.Twitter Cracks Down on Verified Accounts With New Policy. (video) Twitter Inc. updated its policies for removing the verification of a user’s identity, saying it can pull the blue check mark at any time without notice for behavior including promoting hate or inciting harassment of others. Wall Street Journal: Republican Sen. Ron Johnson Opposes GOP Senate Tax Package. Wisconsin Republican says plan unfairly benefits corporations over other businesses, says he finds bill’s process ‘offensive’.Activist Peltz Narrowly Wins P&G Board Seat, New Count Shows. Investor won proxy fight by slim 43,000 vote margin, according to preliminary report, weeks after P&G had declared victory.A Litigious Climate Threatens Scientific Norms. An energy researcher sues another over a critical paper. It’s the wrong way to resolve such disputes.MarketWatch.com: Stock market ‘not even close’ to pricing in tax cuts, says UBS.A selloff in junk bonds may not spark a crash, or a recession, says Deutsche Bank. Fox News: Fusion GPS told media of Trump-Russia claims, but did not verify dossier: source. (video)CNBC: Keep bitcoin away from the real economy, says billionaire 'father of high speed trading'. (video)Zero Hedge: Musk Fires Back: Blasts "Hotbed Of MISinformation" In Racial Discrimination Lawsuit.Times Square Losing Marquee Office Tenants As Wading Through "Desnudas" To Get To Work Grows Old.The Complete Idiot's Guide To The Biggest Risks In China.Foreigners Splurge On US Stocks: Buy Second-Most US Equities In 8 Years.House Democrats Introduce Five Articles Of Impeachment Against Trump.Judge Moore Doubles Down On Denial; Alleges That Gloria Allred's Yearbook Message Is A "Fraud".S&P Breaks Longest Period Of Calm In 52 Years As Yield Curve Carnage Continues. (graph)Business Insider: Hackers pose an increasingly dire threat to the power grid.Rare Leonardo da Vinci painting sells for record $450 million.America's debt is surging, and some of the riskiest borrowers are struggling to pay back.BuzzFeed posted a bizarre theory that Starbucks'(SBUX) holiday cups 'might have a gay agenda'.Night Trading  Asian equity indices are unch. to +.75% on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 +1.25 basis points.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 16.0 +.25 basis point.Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.34 +.03%. S&P 500 futures +.17%. NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%. M[...]



Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Tax Reform Worries, Less Economic Optimism, Yen Strength, Energy/Gaming Sector Weakness

2017-11-15T15:23:46.911-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 12.89 +11.2% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.77 -.54% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.11 -.12% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 21.91 +18.7% ISE Sentiment Index 165.0 +65.0%Total Put/Call 1.04 +17.0% NYSE Arms .73 -47.53% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.96 -.15% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 395.0 +6.18%European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.28 +.63%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.95 +2.07%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.93 +.38%Emerging Market CDS Index 193.90 +.01%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.33 -.01% 2-Year Swap Spread 17.75 -.75 basis point TED Spread 15.5 -3.5 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -47.75 -1.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.32 unch. 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.25% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 64.75 -4.25 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $61.84/Metric Tonne -2.11% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 35.50 -1.9 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.30 -.6 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.80 +.5 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 -2.0 basis points100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +88 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -37 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Lower: On losses in my medical/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-11-15T15:04:07.823-05:00

Bloomberg: China Sustainability Drive Gives Bulls Hope, Morgan Stanley Says. Morgan Stanley’s top China analysts are "still bullish" on the economy, citing progress on defusing the debt bomb and the surprising speed of its shift to a high-income economy. Economists, analysts and strategists said in a 61-page report that they expect Beijing to tame borrowing and achieve a "near-stabilization" of its debt-to-gross domestic product ratio by late 2019. Incomes are expected to cross the $13,700 threshold to attain high-income status by 2025, two years earlier than they’d initially forecast. President Xi Jinping put new emphasis on the sustainability, quality and efficiency of economic growth at a twice-a-decade Communist Party conclave last month, but risks remain.The High-Yield Selloff Has Largely Passed by China. The slump in high-yield debt hasn’t pulled the plug on Chinese property bonds. While last week saw more than $2 billion pulled from global exchange-traded funds tracking speculative-grade bonds, the country that was warned of over-leveraging by its own central bank and the International Monetary Fund has escaped relatively unscathed.A Top Asia Fund Manager Says This Stock Selloff Is a Time to Buy. (video)Your Evening Briefing.Greenlight's Einhorn Says Issues That Caused the Crisis Are Not Solved. Hedge-fund manager David Einhorn said the problems that caused the global financial crisis a decade ago still haven’t been resolved. “Have we learned our lesson? It depends what the lesson was,” Einhorn, the co-founder of New York-based Greenlight Capital LLC, said at the Oxford Union in England on Wednesday. Einhorn said he identified “three, four or five obvious problems” at the time of the crisis. These included the structural issues that were exposed in the market; the fact that institutions that could have gone under were deemed too big to fail; and the structured-credit market, where risks were not properly evaluated.U.S. Inflation, Retail Data Show Economy Ready for Fed Rate Hike. (video)Wall Street Journal: The Democrats’ Kansas Distraction. They’re trying to make my state’s 2012 tax cuts into a cautionary tale, but there’s no comparison.Zimbabwe’s Military Asserts Control; President Mugabe Confined to His Home. Military says longtime leader is safe and denies he is being ousted; U.S. Embassy urges Americans in Harare to ‘shelter in place’.CFPB Head Cordray to Step Down, Paving Way for Change at Watchdog. Regulator says he will leave this month, without giving a reason. Target’s(TGT) Sales Rise but Spending Pinches Profits. Retailer gives lackluster earnings outlook for holiday period; quarterly earnings fall 21%.Impeach Tom Steyer. The ultraliberal billionaire is the enemy of every cause he promotes. Fox News: UCLA basketball players thank Trump for 'helping us out' after tweet. (video)CNBC: The Senate GOP bill would double the child tax credit, which pleases two skeptical senators. (video)Why a so-called bad omen for stocks is nothing more than ‘fake news,’ says technician. (video)Obamacare repeal tax plan could hand GOP a double victory.Amazon(AMZN) set for 'record-breaking' holiday season with nearly half of online sales: Analyst.Three stocks to buy on recent weakness: Technician. (video)Restaurant M&A is making a comeback. Here are some potential targets.Zero Hedge: Puerto Rico Bond Prices Plunge Below Venezuela's On Moratorium Fears. (graph)European Stocks Suffer Longest Losing Streak In Over A Year (As EU Credit Crashes).FDA Approves New Digital Sensor To Ensure "Patients With Mental Health Issues" Take Their Meds.Treasury Curve Collapses To Fresh 10-Year Lows After Data Dump. (graph)Is This Why Productivity Has Ta[...]



Bear Radar

2017-11-15T13:44:59.550-05:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Growth -.5%Sector Underperformers: 1) Oil Service -1.3% 2) Alt Energy -1.2% 3) Gaming -.9%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: SD, ACOR, MTSI, TGT, EBS, KLIC, DBD, VERI, LOXO and YRCWStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) MTZ 2) KR 3) TGT 4) CBS 5) DG Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) XOM 2) WU 3) PZZA 4) JCI 5) MPC Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-11-15T13:18:23.779-05:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Value unch.Sector Outperformers: 1) Airlines +1.0% 2) Retail +.9% 3) Banks +.6% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:BCEI, YY, PLCE, ALTR, ARA, BOOT, TPRE, CALA, SQ, CDK, WIFI, BZH, ATUS, CYD, SGMO, FANH, DKS, CNCE, BOLD, TEO, AXDX, INGR, GNK, INCR, CIFS, LXRX, CARG, KBR and ROKUStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) HPE 2) SIG 3) COF 4) SQ 5) BK Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) YY 2) SORL 3) SGMO 4) ALKS 5) INGR Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-11-15T11:52:59.810-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Wednesday Watch

2017-11-14T21:41:46.453-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Exports Drive Japan’s Economy to 7th Straight Quarter of Growth. Japan’s economy grew for a seventh straight quarter, its longest expansion since 2001, as a recovery in exports and rising business investment offset a decline in consumer spending.Economists at Odds With Bond Traders on Global Inflation Outlook. Wall Street economists are clashing with Wall Street traders over whether inflation is poised to awaken around the world after a long slumber. From Morgan Stanley to Bank of America Corp. there’s a growing chorus of economists siding with Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s “best guess” that price pressures will soon gain momentum, paving the way for the Fed and other key central banks to continue unwinding ultra-loose monetary policy in a gradual fashion.China Throws Lifeline to Developers Hitting Record Wall of Debt. Chinese developers facing a looming wall of debt repayments have been thrown a lifeline by regulators easing access to offshore financing. That won’t solve all their problems. The nation reported the deepest slowdown in new home sales in almost three years on Tuesday, as local authorities have rolled out curbs to cool runaway prices and President Xi Jinping urges citizens to end their speculation on housing.Late-Cycle Market Means Wait to Sell Stocks, Morgan Stanley. As the developed world approaches the final stages of an upturn in the economy and financial markets, investors for now should remain invested in equities and avoid the temptation to sell during pullbacks, according to Morgan Stanley. "Without a doubt, most major asset classes look rich versus history," Morgan Stanley strategists including Serena Tang and Andrew Sheets, wrote in a 40-page plus report on "how the bull market will end." However, "equities can still get richer into end-of-cycle," they concluded.U.S. Equity Declines to Spread to Asia; Oil Drops. Asian stocks look set to follow losses in U.S. equities as signs of oversupply in some commodities dragged down energy and raw-materials shares, while investors awaited tax plan details and inflation data. Equity-index futures signaled declines at the start of Wednesday trading in Japan, China and Hong Kong. Australian shares tracked losses on the S&P 500 Index. A Bloomberg commodities gauge dropped the most in six months and crude oil extended declines after the International Energy Agency cut its forecast for demand and cautioned the global market will remain oversupplied. Strong growth in Germany and Italy buoyed the euro, while the dollar touched a three-week low and Treasuries climbed. Nickel led declines in commodities. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.5 percent. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average slid 0.5 percent. FTSE China A50 futures lost 0.3 percent and contracts on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index slid 0.2 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Wall St. Journal:  Pence Presses CEOs to Help Sell Tax Overhaul. Vice president believes that GOP has the votes to pass tax plan regardless of outcome in Alabama.MarketWatch.com: Home Depot(HD) is the big winner in the downfall of Sears(SHLD).Fox News: Six terror-linked foreigners entered US via 'diversity lottery,' says Trump administration. (video)Gregg Jarrett: Hillary Clinton must face the consequences of her actions and the scrutiny of a special counsel. (video)CNBC: Denver to build 'hyperloop-inspired' high-speed transport system.Mark Zuckerberg is surprised at the extent of the opioid problem -- but Facebook is full of illegal ads for opioids.Paul Singer's Ell[...]



Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Tax Reform Worries, Oil Decline, Yen Strength, Commodity/Construction Sector Weakness

2017-11-14T15:37:48.726-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.72 +1.91% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.40 +.87% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.14 -.49% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 19.77 +19.17% ISE Sentiment Index 93.0 +4.49%Total Put/Call .90 -1.1% NYSE Arms 1.57 +50.7% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.07 +1.34% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 371.0 +2.03%European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.95 +1.98%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.87 +1.04%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.88 -2.82%Emerging Market CDS Index 193.82 +.55%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.34 +.04% 2-Year Swap Spread 18.5 -1.0 basis point TED Spread 19.0 -.25 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -46.50 +2.5 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.32 unch. 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.24% +4.0 basis pointsYield Curve 69.0 -2.75 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $63.17/Metric Tonne +1.58% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 37.40 -.6 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 60.90 +3.1 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.30 -.8 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.90 -1.0 basis point100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -40 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -26 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +9 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my retail/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-11-14T14:57:33.274-05:00

Bloomberg:Germany Puts Euro-Area Economy in Line for Best Growth in Years. The euro-area economy maintained its solid pace of expansion in the third quarter, keeping it on track for its best annual performance in a decade. Gross domestic product rose 0.6 percent in the period, unchanged from a flash estimate, the European Union’s statistics office said Tuesday. In Germany, the region’s largest economy, expansion accelerated to 0.8 percent, while Italy’s picked up to 0.5 percent.Your Evening Briefing.One57 Foreclosure Shatters Price Dreams at Billionaires' Tower. When a full-floor penthouse at Manhattan’s One57 sold at a foreclosure auction, it didn’t just settle an international mortgage gone bad. The deal also set a new price standard for the Billionaires’ Row tower that once stood as a symbol of unlimited extravagance. The 6,240-square-foot condo spanning the skyscraper’s 79th floor sold for $36 million last week to an unidentified buyer, the highest of five bidders in addition to the lender. The price was 29 percent less than the $50.9 million that Nigerian businessman Kolawole Akanni Aluko paid for the apartment when he bought it new in 2014.Wall Street Journal: Cohn: ‘We’ve Got to Get Taxes Done This Year’. The president’s top economic adviser says next on Trump’s agenda is a plan to improve the nation’s infrastructure.Higher Education’s Deeper Sickness. Political imbalance causes intellectual degradation. Riots against free speech are only a symptom.Critics Hit GOP Tax Plan for Small Businesses, Partnerships, Developers. Republican aides to Senate Finance Committee say they plan to make changes on how pass-through businesses are affected.U.S. Manufacturing Rides Rising Tide, Buoyed by Global Growth, Optimism. Makers of everything from bulldozers to food products are on an upswing as production, spending and sentiment improve.Fed’s Bostic: Gradual Rate Rises Appropriate Over Next Several Years. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta president says pace of Fed rate rises will depend on economy’s performance. High-Yield Canary Isn’t Singing About Markets Doom. The selloff, mainly confined to telecoms and lower-rated bonds, should be put into perspective, investors say. MarketWatch.com: Wal-Mart(WMT) earnings: In-store and digital sales put it a step ahead of the competition.Fox News: Sessions testifies on Russia meetings at House hearing -- live blog. (video)Shooting near California elementary school leaves several dead, children wounded. (video)CNBC: House GOP moving full speed to get tax reform done by year-end. (video)Strategist: Without 'game changer' tax cuts we could be in a 'pretty big mess' next year.Biotech just entered a correction, but one trader says it could be your best chance to buy. (video)The first 'digital pill' has just been approved -- here's how it could revolutionize health care. Home Depot(HD) is retail's bright spot as it courts younger shoppers who prefer DIY.Roy Moore "sex scandal" is a big win for Mitch McConnell. The accusations against Moore and the nature of those allegations couldn't have come at a better time for McConnell, whose top priority is and has always been consolidating his personal power in the Senate.Zero Hedge:  30 Million Americans Were Just Diagnosed With High Blood Pressure, Here's Why...George Soros To Congress: "Please Don't Cut My Taxes".Sessions Rages, White House Leaks "Have Reached Epidemic Proportions".White House Considering Mohamed El-Erian For Fed Vice Chair.The Fed Issues A Subprime Warning As Household Debt Hits A New [...]



Bear Radar

2017-11-14T13:50:33.636-05:00

Style Underperformer: Small-Cap Value Growth -.5%Sector Underperformers: 1) Steel -3.0% 2) Oil Service -2.8% 3) Biotech -2.2%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: NCSM, RPD, LOXO, DKS, GE, QUOT, ARMK, BMA, TJX, CALA, ATUS, PRTK, KBR, JD, ACM, CXW and SAGEStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) TWNK 2) AMJ 3) BKD 4) IGT 5) ANF Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) GE 2) CF 3) GNC 4) BHI 5) ALB Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-11-14T13:18:00.648-05:00

Style Outperformer: Mid-Cap Growth -.1%Sector Outperformers: 1) Utilities +1.0% 2) Restaurants +.7% 3) Networking +.6% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:KLIC, TCO, AAP, BWLD, DQ, IGT, VOD, NTB, JACK, SKTR, AMWD, TRHC, MMI, SATS, PLYA, DEL, HOLI, PETQ, VCRA, VSAT, WING, ZYNE, ZION, IAC, MAT, VERI, EVHC, SYNT, TCO, JNPR, CIT and NKTRStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) SSYS 2) AAP 3) BBBY 4) IGT 5) JNPR Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) FENG 2) ADMA 3) FENG 4) CAT 5) KO Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-11-14T11:39:32.395-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Tuesday Watch

2017-11-13T21:34:45.198-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Australian Business Conditions Surge to Highest on Record. Australian business conditions surged to the highest on record, reinforcing signs of a strengthening labor market and pickup in investment. The sentiment index jumped seven points to 21 in October and was driven by spikes in sales and profitability gauges, according to a National Australia Bank Ltd. survey of more than 400 firms conducted in the last week of the month. The business confidence index was unchanged at a revised 8.Eastern EU Economic Growth Seen Speeding Up on Consumer Spending. Economic growth in the European Union’s eastern members probably picked up in the third quarter as rising wages propelled consumer spending. Four of the region’s six countries releasing third-quarter gross domestic product data on Tuesday will report accelerating annual growth rates, raging from 3.4 percent in Slovakia to 6.2 percent in Romania, according to Bloomberg surveys. Growth in the Czech Republic was unchanged at 4.7 percent and in Hungary it was 3.7 percent, according to estimates.Stocks in Asia Open Mixed Ahead of China Data. Equity markets in Asia fluctuated at the open ahead of a deluge of economic data due in China. U.S. stocks edged up overnight, the dollar was flat and benchmark Treasury yields held recent gains as investors awaited clues on monetary policy and tax reform. Japanese stock benchmarks swung between gains and losses, halting a slump in Tokyo that began Thursday afternoon. Australia’s stocks fell, while futures in Hong Kong were little changed. Short-term U.S. Treasury yields climbed ahead of key U.S. economic data this week. The pound remained weak amid renewed political pressure on U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May. Bitcoin clawed back some losses after extending its slump from last week’s record high to as much as 29 percent. The Topix index was little changed as of 9:26 a.m. in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 0.2 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 index was down 0.8 percent and the Kospi index in Seoul was little changed. Hang Seng Index futures fell 0.1 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)IEA Sees U.S. Shale Surge as Biggest Oil and Gas Boom in History. The supply surge from U.S. shale oil and gas will beat the biggest gains seen in the history of the industry, the International Energy Agency predicted. By 2025, the growth in American oil production will equal that achieved by Saudi Arabia at the height of its expansion, and increases in natural gas will surpass those of the former Soviet Union, the agency said in its annual World Energy Outlook. The boom will turn the U.S., still among the biggest oil importers, into a net exporter of fossil fuels.Wall Street Journal: WSJ CEO Council 2017 -- Full Coverage.Nearly Half of U.S. Adults Have High Blood Pressure Under New Guidelines. Hypertension will now be defined as a reading of 130/80 and above, a threshold that will include 103.3 million people.The Great Progressive Tax Escape. IRS data show an accelerating flight from high-tax states.Senators Support Rollback of Bank Oversight. Bipartisan deal raises threshold dictating which banks would face heightened oversight from the Federal Reserve.IPOs Roar Back World-Wide, With Asia Driving the Boom. This year is on track to be busiest in a decade for new listings.MarketWatch.com:  Why strong earnings aren’t just a U.S. story—in one chart[...]



Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Tax Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Bank Sector Strength

2017-11-13T15:37:51.520-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: About EvenSector Performance: MixedVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.08 -1.86% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.18 +.09% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.18 +.49% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 17.49 -6.04% ISE Sentiment Index 80.0 -3.61%Total Put/Call .90 -22.41% NYSE Arms 1.21 +37.65% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.24 +.42% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 363.0 +.04%European Financial Sector CDS Index 52.03 -.32%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 3.83 -5.43%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 16.33 +1.68%Emerging Market CDS Index 192.95 +.24%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 145.29 +.05% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.5 -.75 basis point TED Spread 19`.25 +.5 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -49.0 -1.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 72.34 -.08% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.20% -2.0 basis pointsYield Curve 71.75 -2.75 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $62.19/Metric Tonne -.65% Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.10 -.4 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 57.80 -1.1 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 13.10 -1.0 point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.91 unch.100.0% chance of Fed rate hike at Jan. 31 meeting, 100.0% chance at March 21 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +45 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +20 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +31 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/medical sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-11-13T15:01:52.717-05:00

Bloomberg:IMF Says Europe's Recovery Is Spilling Over to Rest of World. The global economy can thank Europe’s robust growth for the improving outlook, according to the International Monetary Fund. Forecasting 2.4 percent expansion in the region this year, up from 1.7 percent in 2016, the Washington-based lender said the brighter prospects accounted for the bulk of an upward revision to its global outlook published in October. It also said the difference in growth rates within the 19-nation euro area is the lowest in nearly two decades. “This recovery in many countries of Europe is now increasingly solidifying and strengthening,” Jorg Decressin, deputy director of the IMF’s European Department, said at a briefing for its Regional Economic Outlook, published Monday.Roku(ROKU) Founder Becomes Billionaire After Shares Double in Three Days.Amazon(AMZN) to Produce ‘Lord of the Rings’ TV Series With New Plots.Wall Street Journal:Qualcomm(QCOM) Rejects Broadcom’s(BRCM) Takeover Bid. Qualcomm’s board says Broadcom’s $105 billion offer dramatically undervalues them.Earthquake Near Iran-Iraq Border Kills More Than 400. Rescue efforts continue and the death toll is expected to rise.MarketWatch.com:Best and worst earnings surprises for the S&P 500 this quarter — newly updated.Fox News:Roy Moore blasts McConnell, WaPo, as calls to leave Senate race grow. (video)CNBC:Attention bitcoin bears: You'll be able to bet against the digital currency in one month.Let's end the 'Joe Biden for president' delusion right now.Apple(AAPL) is launching three iPhones next year, including one with a huge 6.5-inch screen, KGI says.Missouri is taking page from Europe and investigating Google(GOOGL).Trump nominates former drug company executive Alex Azar as next Health and Human Services secretary. (video)Zero Hedge:"I Believe The Women" - Mitch McConnell Calls For Moore To "Step Aside".Are Electric Cars As Clean As They Seem?The Truth About Wall Street Analysis.OPEC Reports 151Kbpd Drop In October Crude Output; Raises Demand Forecast For 2018.Pension Ponzi Bailout: Democrats Sponsor US Treasury Bailout Scheme.Philly Fed President Unconvincing As He "Lightly" Pencils In December Hike.GE(GE) Is Crashing.[...]