Subscribe: Between the Hedges
http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/atom.xml
Added By: Feedage Forager Feedage Grade A rated
Language: English
Tags:
basis  cds index  economic  emerging markets  futures  index  market  markets  percent  sector  spread basis  stocks  year 
Rate this Feed
Rate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feed
Rate this feed 1 starRate this feed 2 starRate this feed 3 starRate this feed 4 starRate this feed 5 star

Comments (0)

Feed Details and Statistics Feed Statistics
Preview: Between the Hedges

BETWEEN THE HEDGES



Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets



Updated: 2018-01-18T11:34:34.734-05:00

 



Morning Market Internals

2018-01-18T11:33:02.475-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Thursday Watch

2018-01-17T21:07:17.983-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Bank of Korea Holds Policy Rate Steady, Reviews Economic Outlook. South Korea’s central bank left its key interest rate unchanged, choosing to assess the impact of a November increase as the nation’s currency trades near near a multi-year high. The decision on Thursday to keep the seven-day repurchase rate at 1.5 percent, in the next-to-last rate decision before Governor Lee Ju-yeol’s term ends in March, was forecast by all 17 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. The central bank will release updates to its 2018 forecasts of 2.9 percent economic growth and 1.8 percent inflation later on Thursday.China Bond Traders Are Underestimating Inflation Risk, CCB Warns.China's Top Nickel Producer Joins BHP in Preparing for EV Boom. China’s top nickel supplier aims to boost output of a material used in car batteries by 40 percent this year, joining the ranks of global producers ramping up operations to meet demand from electric vehicles.Crypto Lending Site's Shutdown Renews Ponzi Scheme Claims. BitConnect isn’t letting this week’s closure of its cryptocurrency exchange and lending operations deter it from attempting to raise funds though another digital token offering. That isn’t sitting well with existing coin owners, who have seen the value of the tokens tumble by as much as 95 percent since Monday. Critics on Twitter and Reddit have renewed allegations of fraud and are equating the company to a Ponzi scheme, where an operator pays off old investors by raising money from new ones.Australian Jobs Growth Beats Expectations, Capping Bonanza Year.Asian Stocks Head for New Highs, Bonds Hold Losses. Equity benchmark indexes in Japan, Australia and South Korea all climbed, with technology shares leading gains on the MSCI Asia Pacific Index. The S&P 500 Index posted its biggest gain in over a month, amid hopes that tax cuts will boost profits. A global rise in yields has pushed those on 10-year Japanese government bonds to their highest since July, stretching toward a test of the Bank of Japan’s target around zero percent. Japan’s Topix index rose 0.5 percent as of 9:23 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.1 percent and South Korea’s Kospi index climbed 0.6 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index gained 0.5 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 gained 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge advanced 0.9 percent on Wednesday.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)OPEC-Russia Oil Deal Faces a New Danger. When OPEC and Russia meet this weekend to review their strategy for clearing a global oil glut, they’ll face an unusual problem: it could be working just a bit too well. As their output cuts, coupled with robust global demand, tighten the market, crude prices have soared to a three-year high near $70 a barrel. That’s prompted warnings -- from Iran’s oil minister to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. -- of a fresh surge in U.S. production, wrecking all of OPEC’s hard work.Alcoa(AA) Profit Misses as Rising Costs Rain on Aluminum Parade. Rising costs took the shine off what was by most measures a strong year for Alcoa Corp. While the top U.S. aluminum maker’s adjusted fourth-quarter earnings swelled, the profit missed analysts’ estimates amid higher costs for energy and raw materials and unfavorable movements in exchange rates. Alcoa’s shares surged 92 percent last year as the prospect of China shutting outdated, illegal and polluting plants helped boost aluminum prices. It was the company’s best annual performance since 1999 and happened during its first year since splitting from parts-maker Arconic Inc. in late 2016.A New Way to Carry Out Trades at Market Close Gets SEC Approval.Wall Street Journal: Koreas Strike Deal on Olympic Unity as U.S. Pressures North. South and North Korea will march under one flag at opening ceremony for Winter Games.Goldman Sachs(GS) Loses Its Trading Edge. In the fourth quarter, bank’s debt and commodities traders posted worst three-month stret[...]



Stocks Surging into Close on Earnings Optimism, Diminishing Govt Shutdown Worries, Yen Weakness, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Strength

2018-01-17T16:09:52.751-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Substantially HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 11.55 -.94% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.50 +.28% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.89 +1.15% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.92 -1.11% ISE Sentiment Index 85.0 -15.84%Total Put/Call .81 +16.37% NYSE Arms .98 -.56% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 47.77 +.18% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 320.0 +.15%European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.09 +1.0%Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 143.75 +3.0 basis pointsAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.37 +4.54%Emerging Market CDS Index 110.29 +.12%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.78 unch. 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 unch. TED Spread 29.75 +2.5 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.75 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.48 -.07% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.44% +2.0 basis pointsYield Curve 53.25 +.5 basis pointChina Iron Ore Spot 516.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +2.18%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.0 +4.4 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.0 -.6 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.3 +.2 basis point 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +2.0 basis points86.9% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 87.2% chance at May 2 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +132 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +92 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +53 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my biotech/retail/tech/medical sector longs Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2018-01-17T15:13:48.279-05:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Value +1.0%Sector Underperformers: 1) Gold & Silver -.5% 2) Shipping -.5% 3) Agriculture -.3%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: ADNT, EXAS, NEWA, ETH, HALO, FAST, F, PNFP, FORM, ACLS, EXEL, DISH, BOOT, QTS, GE and ASIXStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) EXAS 2) JNPR 3) WTW 4) TBT 5) FOSL Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) HALO 2) HIVE 3) EXAS 4) DISH 5) ADNT Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2018-01-17T14:32:48.713-05:00

Style Outperformer: Mid-Cap Growth +1.0% Sector Outperformers: 1) Semis +2.5% 2) Homebuilding +2.2% 3) Disk Drives +2.1% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:BLUE, JUNO, VVI, PCOM, BXC, USAC, ECH, UL, SIMO, IHG, TSG, EHTH, ATRA, SUPN, COHR, RLH, ICHR, ASML, MOMO, PSTG, SHPG, BA, RYB, CORT, ZAGG, LQ, LRCX, RTEC, AXL, XOG, YEXT and GTStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) JUNO 2) BLUE 3) FAST 4) NBR 5) JCI Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) TIF 2) UNH 3) BYD 4) NCLH 5) DAN Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2018-01-17T10:38:30.660-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Wednesday Watch

2018-01-16T22:28:52.931-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:  Japan's Core Machine Orders Unexpectedly Surge in November. Japan’s core machine orders unexpectedly rose in November, driven by demand from the nation’s non-manufacturing sector, the latest sign of strengthening capital investment.Japan's Budget Goal Is Being Deferred Again. One of Japan’s key targets for addressing its ballooning debt is set to be pushed further into the future when the Cabinet Office updates economic forecasts next week. The primary balance, which measures the government’s fiscal position excluding interest payments on its borrowings, was meant to come out of the red in fiscal 2020. Reaching the goal was seen as a first step for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s administration to arrest debt growth, so the country could then begin to whittle it down.A Steelmaker’s Plan to Win Back the Car of the Future. ArcelorMittal(MT) believes electric vehicles could favor the stronger, cheaper metal.Crypto Junkies’ Favorite Messaging App Is Planning the Biggest ICO Ever. Encrypted messaging service Telegram Inc. is planning the largest, and by some measures most ambitious, initial coin offering ever. Telegram, which last year became the main hub for cryptocurrency watchers and investors, is planning to raise $600 million in a private sale of tokens to use in its Telegram Open Network blockchain before February 2018 and an additional $600 million in a public sale of tokens starting march, according to an investor proposal seen by Bloomberg News.Asian Stocks Retreat From Highs, Dollar Dips Again. (video) The dollar declined against most major currencies while Treasuries steadied amid congressional talks to avert a U.S. government shutdown Friday. Asian stocks pulled back from record highs, following declines in U.S. counterparts. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated as materials and healthcare stocks weighed. Benchmark indexes from Sydney to Tokyo and Hong Kong were also lower. The euro strengthened close to a three-year high against the greenback and sterling rose. The yen steadied after a six-day streak of gains. Bitcoin rebounded above $11,000 after slumping 23 percent Tuesday. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 0.2 percent as of 10:30 a.m. Tokyo time. Topix index decreased 0.2 percent. Kospi index dipped 0.5 percent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng was down 0.4 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.5 percent to the lowest in a month. Futures on the S&P 500 Index rose 0.1 percent after the underlying gauge dropped 0.4 percent Tuesday. Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Behind Roaring Stocks Are Profit Upgrades of Unprecedented Size. (video) The rally in the equity market is running hot by almost every standard, from sentiment to momentum signals. Yet anyone worrying about a meltdown can take comfort in an equally strong trend in corporate earnings. Thanks to the tax cut passed into law in December, analysts have been raising their estimates at a rate not seen in at least six years. Forecasts for 2018 profit from companies in the S&P 500 Index increased 3.5 percent over the past four weeks to $151 a share, the fastest pace over comparable periods in Bloomberg data that go back to 2012.Juno Therapeutics(JUNO) Surges on Report of Celgene(CELG) Deal Talks. Juno Therapeutics Inc. surged in after-hours trading after the Wall Street Journal reported that Celgene Corp. was in talks to buy the Seattle-based drugmaker. Shares of Juno, a leader in the effort to use the immune system to treat cancer, rose more than 44 percent to $65.72 a share at 6:04 p.m. The company had a market value of roughly $5.2 billion as of the close of regular trading on Tuesday. Analysts and investors have speculated that changes to the tax code will entice U.S.-based companies to bring back cash from abroad and spur merger and acquisition activity[...]



Stocks Reversing Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Govt Shutdown Worries, Yen Strength, Retail/Energy Sector Weakness

2018-01-16T15:12:54.454-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Heavy Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 12.1 +18.7% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 141.05 -.15% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 +1.31% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 34.78 +5.8% ISE Sentiment Index 107.0  +10.3%Total Put/Call .68 -8.11% NYSE Arms 1.25 +.92% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.19 +2.79% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 318.0 -.09%European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.68 -1.04%Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.75 +.5 basis pointAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 9.89 +.61%Emerging Market CDS Index 110.34 +.78%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.78 +.13% 2-Year Swap Spread 20.0 +.75 basis point TED Spread 27.25 -.75 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.75 -.75 basis point Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.55 -.15% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.42% -2.0 basis pointsYield Curve 52.75 -2.25 basis pointsChina Iron Ore Spot 506.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +.40%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 65.60 -4.8 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 56.60 -1.7 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 5.1 -1.3 basis points 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 +2.0 basis points88.2% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 88.7% chance at May 2 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -251 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +35 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -98 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Lower: On losses in my biotech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved 75% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2018-01-16T13:36:34.685-05:00

Style Underperformer: Small-Cap Growth -.2%Sector Underperformers: 1) Alt Energy -1.2% 2) Steel -1.1% 3) Biotech -1.1%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: SIMO, TAL, TSRO, AGIO, GE, CAR, XON, HTZ, ZAGG, UA, AVXS, CLVS and BMYStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) PF 2) TMUS 3) ABC 4) SPXU 5) CL Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) SIMO 2) UAA 3) FNSR 4) ONCE 5) BHGE Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2018-01-16T13:19:53.331-05:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Value +.3% Sector Outperformers: 1) Gaming +3.0% 2) REITs +1.3% 3) Robotics +1.1% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:HAWK, PKE, ENR, LADR, NHTC, BPT, CASA, MRK, NSH, IIPR, INFY, VIPS, BOTZ, BA, AWK, MSB, SLF, TGS, BB, AFL, FANH, MTN, SPB, KALA, GG, MGP, OSIS, TER and AYIStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) DISH 2) QCOM 3) FAST 4) MRK 5)UNH Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) MRK 2) CBP 3) UNH 4) LRCX 5) FLR Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2018-01-16T10:35:42.244-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Tuesday Watch

2018-01-15T19:45:50.267-05:00

Today's Headlines Bloomberg: Xi Jinping’s Debt Clampdown Has Left a Trail of Dead Projects. A pile of rusty pipes and materials are all that remain of Lanzhou New Area’s tram project. Only a year ago it was a flagship public-private partnership for the planned city in Central China, before it fell victim to President Xi Jinping’s debt clampdown.China Escalates Crackdown on Cryptocurrency Trading. (video)Lira Falls as Erdogan Warns of Attack on Syria at Any Moment. Turkey’s currency weakened for the first time in three days, extending early losses against the dollar on Monday after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned of a potentially imminent offensive against a Kurdish stronghold in northwest Syria, raising the prospect of further escalating tensions with the U.S.Dollar Down, Euro Gains; Asia Stock Futures Steady. Stock-index futures declined in Japan, while contracts for markets in South Korea and Australia signaled a muted open on Tuesday. Focus remains on China’s yuan, trading at the strongest level in more than two years and prompting speculation about possible steps to cool its gains. The euro held gains after comments from ECB Governing Council member Ardo Hansson on the prospect of a September end to bond purchases. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 slid 0.6 percent in Chicago trading. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and on South Korea’s Kospi index were little changed. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.1 percent after yesterday coming close to its all-time high reached in 2007. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index declined 0.2 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 Index remained 0.2 percent higher, with American equity markets poised to reopen Tuesday after the holiday.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.Great Iron Ore Wave Set to Peter Out as Exporters Hit Targets. Rio Tinto Group forecasts its iron ore shipments will remain flat this year or rise by 3 percent at most, reinforcing market sentiment that a wave of new supply is turning into a trickle. The world’s second-largest exporter expects shipments from Western Australia of between 330 million metric tons and 340 million tons in 2018, the company said Tuesday, confirming guidance published last month. That compares with 330.1 million metric tons recorded last year.GOP Sees Possible DACA Deal as Trump Bemoans Sticking Points. Republican lawmakers held out hope that a deal can be reached allowing young undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S., despite President Donald Trump saying the effort is “probably dead” amid growing tensions about keeping the government funded past Friday. Trump told reporters on his way to a dinner Sunday evening that “I don’t know if there is going to be a shutdown” at the end of the week. Heading to dinner at his Palm Beach, Florida, golf club with House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, Republican of California, Trump said that on immigration “we have a lot of sticking points but they are all Democrat sticking points,” adding “they don’t want security at the border.”Wall Street Journal:  U.S. Warned Jared Kushner About Wendi Deng Murdoch. Officials said the businesswoman could be trying to further Beijing’s interests, people familiar with the matter say.Shutdown Deadline Looms as Congress Deal Remains Elusive. President Trump’s recent remarks complicate talks on spending levels and immigration, congressional aides say.Shell Bids a Long Goodbye to Middle Eastern Oil. Energy company abandons last Iraqi oil fields but maintains a presence in natural-gas industry.Confirming Judges, a Trump Win in 2017, May Get Tougher. Democrats see improved position to push back on nominees with narrower Senate margin and cracks in GOP unanimi[...]



Weekly Outlook

2018-01-14T21:07:29.851-05:00

Week Ahead on Wall Street by CNBC. (video)Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters. Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha. Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as oil gains, positive earnings outlooks and economic optimism offset profit-taking, technical selling and yen strength. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.[...]



Today's Headlines

2018-01-14T20:29:57.532-05:00

Bloomberg: China's Growth Data to Set Tone for Emerging Markets This Week.Seoul's Painful Stock Tax. Along with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's saber rattling, foreign investors with an eye on South Korea may soon face another problem: higher taxes.Asia Set for Equity Gains on Economic Optimism. Futures on stock indexes in Japan, Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong all rose. U.S. markets are shut Monday for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday after the S&P 500 Index closed on Friday at a fresh all-time high. Retail sales spurred optimism in the American economy and JPMorgan Chase & Co. signaled tax cuts will boost profits, while an acceleration in core inflation bolstered the case for the Federal Reserve’s path of higher rates. The euro remained near a three-year high against the greenback on bets that central bank stimulus will be pared back further in Europe as its economy mends. Futures on Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 0.2 percent in most recent trading, compared with prices from late Friday. Futures on Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index and on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index advanced 0.5 percent.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.Stricken Iranian Oil Tanker Sinks in East China Sea After Blast. (video)Republicans See Possible DACA Deal Despite Trump's Twitter Posts. Republicans held out hope that a deal can be reached allowing young undocumented immigrants to remain in the U.S., despite President Donald Trump saying the effort is “probably dead” amid growing tensions about keeping the government funded past Friday. Trump escalated his rhetoric on immigration in a pair of early-morning Sunday Twitter messages that appeared to move away from what a few days ago seemed to be a potential deal with Democrats and moderate Republicans on legislation to continue the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals program.Wall Street Journal: GOP Senator Says Trump Didn’t Use Crude Term to Describe African Nations. Two lawmakers at a meeting where Trump allegedly used the term ‘shithole countries’ call into question his use of the term.U.S. Vows to Withdraw From Iran Nuclear Deal Without Major Changes. Trump administration sets the clock ticking on tough negotiations with its European allies. Ford(F) Increasing Electric Vehicle Investment to $11 Billion by 2022. Auto maker’s head of global markets said company is ‘electrifying our iconic vehicles’. Fox News: Greyhound bus chased by police after illegal immigrant threatens passengers.CNBC: A 'big money indicator' is pointing to more record highs for stocks. (video)6 digital health predictions for 2018.China to step up banking oversight in 'arduous' fight on financial risks.Jamie Dimon walks back Trump one-term prediction, notes Democrats' lack of centrist candidates.Zero Hedge: The Chinese Are Now Spending As Much As Americans.Which US Jobs Pay The Highest Bonuses. Big Donors Buffett, Gates Should Worry As FBI Investigates Clintons' "Charity".Prince Alwaleed Moved To Highest Security Saudi Prison After Refusing To Pay $6 Billion For Freedom: Report. AntiFa Group Proposes "Law Enforcement Incineration Day".US Resumes Accepting DACA Applications As Trump Rages On Twitter .Pakistan Threatens India With Nuclear War After Indian Army Chief's Statement. Business Insider: I tried to buy $1 of bitcoin from a Las Vegas ATM — and it just proves how far bitcoin is from replacing regular money.15 companies that are defying the retail meltdown by opening hundreds of new stores.MORGAN STANLEY: Britain is edging closer to a 'soft Brexit'.Top Republicans are taking aim at a Democratic senator who said Trump made 'shithole countries' comment.There's a bitcoin [...]



Today's Headlines

2018-01-14T10:13:46.297-05:00

 Bloomberg:Abe in Latvia Calls for Pressure on North Korea. The international community should step up pressure on North Korea to help defuse the stand-off over the isolated country’s pursuit of long-range nuclear weapons, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Saturday during a visit to Latvia. “As the international order founded on the rule of law is being challenged, our two nations need to closely work together to maintain and strengthen the system,” Abe said in a statement after meeting Latvian Prime Minister Maris Kucinskis. The two leaders agreed “on the importance of reinforcing pressure on North Korea,” he said. Iraq Joins U.A.E., Qatar in Call to Keep Oil Cuts. Iraq joined the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Oman in calling for OPEC and allied producers to stick with their agreement to cut oil output until the end of the year, despite recent price gains.Murdoch’s News Corp. Warns Facebook to Avoid ‘Political’ Changes. (video) Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp., publisher of the Wall Street Journal and New York Post, will keep an eye on Facebook Inc.’s news-feed changes “for any signs that the weighting of news sites is politically motivated.” Tax Reform to Fuel Rotation to Stocks, JPMorgan's Kolanovic Says. U.S. tax reforms may not have finished boosting stocks yet. Asset allocators should stay strongly overweight equities and underweight government bonds in the near term due to the uptick in global growth and boost to risk-on assets from U.S. fiscal reform, JPMorgan Chase & Co. strategists led by Marko Kolanovic wrote in a note Friday.Big Banks Now Need to Figure Out How to Divvy Up Their Tax Windfall. (video)Wall Street Journal: U.S. Vows to Withdraw From Iran Nuclear Deal Without Major Changes. Trump administration sets the clock ticking on tough negotiations with its European allies.Parents’ Dilemma: When to Give Children Smartphones.Barron's: Had bullish commentary on (PYPL), (MA), (IT), (PH), (SHW), (PFE), (ABBV), (LLY), (BEN), (BMY), (JNJ), (AAPL), (FB), (AMZN), (GOOGL) and (AMGN).Bright Outlook for the Economy and Stocks.Fox News:  Hawaii emergency alert error causes panic, outrage. (video)CNBC:  If a correction strikes, Canaccord’s Tony Dwyer says this ‘monster buy signal’ could erase losses. (video)Indonesia central bank warns over cryptocurrencies.Amazon(AMZN) lost cloud market share to Microsoft(MSFT) in the fourth quarter: KeyBanc.Desperate to get into bitcoin, investors slip into debt.Earnings will be the next test for the seemingly unstoppable $30 trillion stock market.Zero Hedge: Residents "Crying And Screaming" After False "ICBM Threat" Alert Rattles Hawaii; Gabbard Slams Trump.DOJ Unseals Indictment Involving Uranium One Scandal.WSJ Calls For End To Trump Dossier "Silly Season" - Declassify It & Let The Public Decide.Alabama Declares State Of Emergency Over Flu Epidemic As Death Toll Rises. Moby's "CIA Friends" Asked Him To Spread Word Of Trump-Russia Collusion On Facebook.Kentucky Becomes First State To Adopt Medicaid Work Requirements.Bitcoin Mining Fees Soar As China Crackdown Progresses. The US Economy: Full Steam Ahead? (graph)New Survey Reveals Staggering Number Of People Are Buying BitCoin On Their Credit Cards. Vegas Gunman Sent Cryptic Email About "Bumpfire ARs with a 100 Round Magazine" Before Massacre.Trump Lawyer Reportedly Paid $130,000 To Keep Porn Star Silent, She Denies. Fed Paid $29.3 Billion To Banks 'Not' To Lend In 2017; Gave $80 Billion To Treasury.Weekend Reading: What You Do Matters Most.Stocks Surge To Best Start In 30 Years; Bitcoin, Bonds & Dollar Battered. (graph) Business Insider: This Japanese pop [...]



Weekly Scoreboard*

2018-01-12T17:01:47.380-05:00

S&P 500 Index 2,786.24 +1.57% The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.   IndicesDJIA 25,803.19 +2.0%NASDAQ 7,261.06 +1.75%Russell 2000 1,591.97 +2.05%S&P 500 High Beta 45.16 +3.27% Goldman 50 Most Shorted 147.62 +1.55% Wilshire 5000 28,806.69 +1.61%Russell 1000 Growth 1,419.05 +1.58%Russell 1000 Value 1,262.79 +1.55%S&P 500 Consumer Staples 584.75 -.55%Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.5704 +3.69% NYSE Technology 1,795.98 +.96%Transports 11,363.70 +4.13%Utilities 684.38 -2.05%Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 105.46 +3.7%MSCI Emerging Markets 49.11 +.58%HFRX Equity Hedge 1,290.18 +.12%HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,010.37 +.39%Sentiment/InternalsNYSE Cumulative A/D Line 316,561 +.66%Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 1,428 -43 Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 57.14 +14.3% CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 624,213 -1.3% CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,479,798 +.80% Total Put/Call .72 -21.98%OEX Put/Call .33 -62.75%ISE Sentiment 100.0 -3.67% NYSE Arms .62 -32.98%Volatility(VIX) 10.3 +10.2%S&P 500 Implied Correlation 32.13 -9.04%G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.10 +4.3%  Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.53 -.92% Smart Money Flow Index 20,507.76 +2.14%ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.836 Trillion -.07%ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$14.107 BillionAAII % Bulls 48.7 -18.5%AAII % Bears 25.1 +61.1% Futures Spot PricesCRB Index 196.06 +1.26%Crude Oil 64.36 +4.24%Reformulated Gasoline 185.14 +3.11%Natural Gas 3.19 +14.5%Heating Oil 208.75 +1.09%Gold 1,338.90 +1.42%Bloomberg Base Metals Index 211.59 +.02% Copper 322.35 -.25%US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 290.0 USD/Metric Tonne unch.China Iron Ore Spot 511.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes +1.59% Lumber 466.90 +1.33%UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,002.80 -1.71%EconomyAtlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +2.8% +10.0 basis points ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate 3.3% -20.0 basis pointsPhilly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.0762 +1.17% US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 225.61 +33.3% S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 151.45 +2.56%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.40 -4.6 points Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.30 +12.3 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.4 +6.7 points Fed Fund Futures imply 82.0% chance of no change, 18.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 1/31US Dollar Index 90.97 -1.02%MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,687.88 -.28%Bitcoin/USD 13,764.80 -19.25% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.94 -.73% Yield Curve 55.0 +3.25 basis points10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.55% +7.0 basis pointsFederal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.406 Trillion +.05%U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 23.76 -.04% Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 251.85 -.03% Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 3.97 n/aAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 10.13 -10.83%Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 32.31 +5.4%Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 56.59 -3.72% South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 43.40 -7.08% Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 110.18 -5.71% iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.44 +.08%10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02% -1.0 basis pointTED Spread 28.0 -3.0 basis points 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +.5 basis point 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 -.75 basis pointsN. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 47.03 +2.55%America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 322.0 -7.54% European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 42.59 +.85%Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 109.53 -1.61%CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 163.0 unch.M1 Money Supply $3.558 Trill[...]



Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Oil Gain, Energy/Retail Sector Strength

2018-01-12T14:54:54.805-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.16 +2.8% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 140.78 +.92% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.53 +1.07% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.71 -8.81% ISE Sentiment Index 107.0 -2.73Total Put/Call .72 unch. NYSE Arms .61 -11.1% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.63 -.43% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 321.0 -2.57%European Financial Sector CDS Index 42.58 -1.09%Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 140.25 -6.75 basis pointsAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.13 -2.83%Emerging Market CDS Index 109.48 -1.12%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.44 -.08% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.25 +.25 basis point TED Spread 28.0 -.5 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -23.0 +3.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.52 +.47% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.44% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 55.0 -.75 basis pointChina Iron Ore Spot 511.50 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes -.2%Citi US Economic Surprise Index 70.40 +7.2 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.30 -1.4 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 6.4 +6.6 basis points 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 unch.85.2% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 85.6% chance at May 2 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +157 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +76 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Morning Market Internals

2018-01-12T10:32:13.550-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Friday Watch

2018-01-11T20:59:31.996-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg: PC Shipments Rise for the First Holiday Quarter in Six Years. Demand for personal-computers rose over the holiday season for the first time in six years, buoyed by commercial upgrades and pockets of improving consumer demand. Although shipments declined slightly overall in 2017, it still marked the most stable year the market has seen since 2011, IDC said in a report Thursday.Asia Stocks Are Mixed as Euro Gains, Bonds Steady. Equities rose in Sydney and were flat in Seoul, while a stronger yen weighed on Japanese stocks. The euro was boosted by signals from the European Central Bank the economy may be strong enough to warrant scaling back crisis-era guidance on stimulus. The ECB release was the latest in a series of communications from central banks that have started waking currency markets up from a low-volatility stupor. Treasuries steadied after a sell-off sparked by rising concerns on inflation and potential rollback of purchases by China. Japan’s Topix index fell 0.4 percent as of 9:40 a.m. in Tokyo. 7-Eleven store owner Seven & I Holdings declined with FamilyMart UNY Holdings Co. after reporting results. Fast Retailing surged 4.6 percent after profit topped estimates. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the underlying gauge rose 0.7 percent Thursday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.2 percent and South Korea’s Kospi was up 0.1 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index added 0.3 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was little changed, up almost 4 percent since the year began.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.Oil Set for 4th Weekly Gain as U.S. Glut Eases on Winter Decline. (video)Bitcoin Set for Worst Weekly Slide Since 2015 as Scrutiny Rises. (video)California Approves $41 Million for Electric Vehicle Charging.Wall Street Journal: The Spark Behind Iran’s Unrest: Millions of Defrauded Investors. The collapse of investment firms offering outlandish returns fueled the protests that grew into the biggest challenge to the regime since 2009.Donald Trump Signals Openness to North Korea Diplomacy in Interview. President cites a positive relationship with nation’s leader; also accuses Steve Bannon of betrayal. MarketWatch.com Why a U.S. move to exit NAFTA is not the end of the free-trade deal — or free trade.Mnuchin says 90% of workers will get more take-home pay under withholding change.Fox News: Trump laments immigration from 's---hole countries' in Oval Office negotiations. (video)CNBC: Trump claims Mexico will 'indirectly' pay for a wall through NAFTA.Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: AMD, EXAS & more.Doctors will have to be more like actors as A.I. gains momentum: Zocdoc CEO.Intel(INTC) just warned that its patches can cause problems for some chips. There's going to be a 'Made in America' stock boom this year, investment bank says.Big Oil throws California’s climate change hypocrisy back in its face.'Noisy' fourth quarter for banks, but bright 2018 ahead, say analysts. (video)Fiat Chrysler(FCAU) to invest more than $1 billion in Michigan plant and give $2,000 bonuses in response to tax reform.Cramer shares 5 reasons why the retail sector is back in action, according to industry executives.Zero Hedge: Facebook(FB) Introducing Sweeping Changes: Will Prioritze Only "Trustworthy" News. Gundlach: "I Should Change My Firm's Name To DoubleBlockchain".After Beating Cancer, Bernstein Analyst Goes Full "Jerry McGuire".White House Takes First Step To Attach Work Requirements To Medicaid.Wall Street Bank With Thr[...]



Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Earnings Outlooks, Lower Long-Term Rates, Retail/Transport Sector Strength

2018-01-11T15:18:32.238-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Substantially HigherSector Performance: Almost Every Sector RisingVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 9.79 -.31% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.39 +.47% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.47 -1.58% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.59 -.09% ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 +.25%Total Put/Call .69 -1.43% NYSE Arms .63 +8.31% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.85 +.41% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 330.0 -2.27%European Financial Sector CDS Index 43.10 -2.05%Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 147.0 -2.5 basis pointsAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.44 +.48%Emerging Market CDS Index 110.78 -1.92%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.56 -.01% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 -.5 basis point TED Spread 28.5 +1.25 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -26.25 -1.25 basis points Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 75.19 +.55% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.43% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 55.75 -2.0 basis pointsChina Iron Ore Spot 520.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes unch.Citi US Economic Surprise Index 63.20 -3.3 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 59.70 +1.4 basis points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.2 -.2 basis point 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.02 -2.0 basis points79.8% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 80.3% chance at May 2 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +53 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +23 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2018-01-11T14:11:38.114-05:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Growth +.5%Sector Underperformers: 1) REITs -.4% 2) Utilities -.2% 3) Foods -.2%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: FTAI, ARNA, DVAX and ARNAStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) DISH 2) KODK 3) CBOE 4) SIRI 5) RRC Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) AIZ 2) CTXS 3) LPCN 4) AWK 5) AYI Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2018-01-11T13:54:43.489-05:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Value +1.6% Sector Outperformers: 1) Airlines +3.1% 2) Oil Service +3.1% 3) Homebuilders +2.6% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:SECO, MGI, DST, SSNC, CMCM, PRGS, KBH, DFRG, AGIO, GSUM, FCAU, NVCR, XRAY, BPT, SBCF, REI, ARES, DAL, MSM, BABY, TGTX, IPAR, DENN, SND, COUP, SND, APPN, BCO, FSLR, TRUP, UNT, SEAS, VRAY, CEQP, DST, Z, FRAC, RES, EMES, AAL, CVX, CRS, ENBL and COUPStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) APRN 2) CRC 3) KBH 4) DISH 5) TSCO Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) PRGS 2) KBH 3) FSLR 4) IPAR 5) BCO Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Market Internals

2018-01-11T13:07:36.397-05:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Thursday Watch

2018-01-10T21:41:33.513-05:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg: Nafta Nations Plan More Talks for Mexico in February. The U.S., Canada and Mexico plan a seventh round of negotiations for a new Nafta deal for February in Mexico City even as they focus on preparations for talks in Montreal in two weeks, according to two people familiar with the plans. Negotiations to update the accord have been organized into rounds, or week-long sessions where groups meet to hammer out the details of about 30 chapters under discussion. The talks began in Washington in August and have rotated between the three nations every few weeks since. The Jan. 23-28 round taking place in Quebec will be the first held outside a capital city, and the talks will then return to Mexico the next month, according to the people, who asked not to be named discussing plans that haven’t been announced publicly.Sydney Homes Aren't So Attractive to Chinese Investors This Year.Stocks Fall as Rally Loses Steam, Yen Strengthens. The stellar run for equities that ushered in the new year showed signs of waning in Asia on Thursday as the yen strengthened to a six-week high and traders dialed back their appetite for risky assets amid a jump in government bond yields. The yen held gains against all its G-10 peers, dragging down shares in Tokyo. Equities in Seoul and Sydney also fell after the S&P 500 Index slipped overnight. The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso maintained losses triggered by a report that Canadian officials see rising odds the Trump administration will leave Nafta. Japan’s Topix index slid 0.4 percent as of 9:43 a.m. in Tokyo. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 0.4 percent and South Korea’s Kospi declined 0.3 percent. Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.1 percent. Futures on the S&P 500 were little changed after the underlying gauge slipped 0.1 percent Wednesday, paring losses of as much as 0.6 percent earlier in the session. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.3 percent, having climbed 4.1 percent from the start of the year through Wednesday.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (video)Wall Street Journal: Trump Administration Seeks to Change Rules on Bank Lending to the Poor. Regulators plan to revamp rules governing banks under the Community Reinvestment Act.Toyota Plant Puts Foreign Car Makers on Path to Pass Detroit in U.S. Production. Japanese companies seeking to bulk up market share while Detroit putting profits over volume.Immigration Officials Swarm 7-Elevens, Issue Warning to U.S. Businesses. Agents arrest 21 employees suspected of being in the U.S. illegally.Facebook(FB), Google(GOOGL) Have a Tough New Job in Germany: Content Cop. Social-media platforms face fines of up to $60 million if they fail to delete illegal content such as neo-Nazi propaganda and calls to violence.Whispers of $80 Oil Are Growing Louder. Rising demand for oil and OPEC production cuts could send prices higher in 2018. MarketWatch.com $26.33 instead of $15.99 a case? Costco shows Seattle customers just how much soda tax costs them.Fox News: Lavish Obama Center hits mounting opposition in Chicago as profs blast plans, 'socially regressive' ideas.Trump to take populist 'America First' message to globalist Davos summit.CNBC: Higher costs and strong demand: What to look for in airline earnings.The global market is doing something it’s never done before.Activision Blizzard(ATVI) CEO: Overwatch League seeing a lot of tr[...]



Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Profit-Taking, Yen Strength, Technical Selling, REIT/Utility Sector Weakness

2018-01-10T15:13:00.559-05:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 9.98 -.99% Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.78 -.96% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.56 +.27% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.53 -4.0% ISE Sentiment Index 96.0 -9.4%Total Put/Call .63 -21.3% NYSE Arms .52 -39.5% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 46.41 +.42% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 339.0 -.70%European Financial Sector CDS Index 44.0 +1.44%Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 149.50 -7.5 basis pointsAsia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 10.4 +6.72%Emerging Market CDS Index 113.76 +2.01%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 146.57 +.02% 2-Year Swap Spread 19.50 unch. TED Spread 27.25 -1.75 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.0 -.5 basis point Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.76 -.03% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.42% -1.0 basis pointYield Curve 57.75 -.5 basis pointChina Iron Ore Spot 520.0 CNY/100 Metric Tonnes unch.Citi US Economic Surprise Index 66.50 -.5 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 58.30 -.5 basis point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 0.0 unch. 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.04 unch.80.3% chance of Fed rate hike at March 21 meeting, 80.7% chance at May 2 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -163 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -33 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/biotech/retail sector longs Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]