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BETWEEN THE HEDGES



Portfolio Manager's Commentary on Investing and Trading in the U.S. Financial Markets



Updated: 2017-09-20T19:38:55.648-04:00

 



Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on More Hawkish FOMC Commentary, Apple(AAPL) Worries, Profit-Taking, Tech/Homebuilding Sector Weakness

2017-09-20T15:43:55.068-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: Modestly HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.0 -1.77%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.27 -.26% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.73 +.39% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 22.77 -2.3%ISE Sentiment Index 52.0 -11.9%Total Put/Call .88 +14.3% NYSE Arms .91 -8.1% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 58.95 +6.8% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 425.0 +2.87%European Financial Sector CDS Index 57.18 +23.3% (new series)Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.48 -5.19%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 15.59 -13.29%Emerging Market CDS Index 191.15 +9.14%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.65 +.01%2-Year Swap Spread 25.75 -.25 basis point TED Spread 29.25 -.5 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 unch.Economic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.53 -.09% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% unch.Yield Curve 83.0 -1.0 basis point China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.85/Metric Tonne +1.16% Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.40 +.1 pointCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 22.30 +1.1 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.50 +.1 basis point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 -2.0 basis points67.1% chance of Fed rate hike at Dec. 13 meeting, 67.7% chance at Jan. 31 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -5 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my biotech sector longs and emerging markets shortsDisclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-09-20T15:10:23.439-04:00

Bloomberg:World Economy Is Set to Grow at Fastest Pace Since 2011.ECB's Top Officials on Parade Ahead of Critical October Decision.Your Evening Briefing.Fed to Shrink Assets Next Month, Boost Rates by Year-End. (video)Alcoa(AA) Set for Highest Close Since 2008 as Aluminum Prices Surge. Aluminum is on a roll and it’s taking its makers with it. Alcoa Corp., the largest U.S. producer of the metal, headed for the highest close since the global financial crisis hit in 2008 as aluminum extended its rally to a five-year high. The metal advanced for a third day after a report of possible production cuts in China, compounding supply concerns.The Fed’s New Dot Plot.Wall Street Journal:Trump Urges GOP Senators to Back New Health Bill. President singles out Rand Paul in a tweet as Graham-Cassidy push continues.Apple(AAPL) Acknowledges Cellular Connectivity Problem in New Watch. Company says it is investigating a fix for a future software release.U.S. Demands Changes to Iran Nuclear Deal, Tillerson Says. U.S. to hold talks on Iran accord on sidelines of United Nations General Assembly gathering. MarketWatch.com:Fed decision and Janet Yellen press conference – live blog and video.Welcome to the second biggest bull market since World War II.European stocks mark time as investors focus on U.S. Fed. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, -0.04% ended down 0.04% at 381.98, echoing quiet action seen in the U.S.Fox News:North Korea’s Kim keeps teen sex slaves, executes musicians with anti-aircraft guns, defector reveals. (video)Rouhani calls Trump's threats 'ignorant,' vows to take action if nuclear pact is broken.CNBC:Why Goldman Sachs(GS) sees $1 trillion in tax cuts coming.Here's what changed in the new Fed statement.These high-flying life sciences stocks make Netflix and Amazon look dull. (video)As smartphones last longer, a $999 iPhone could spell trouble for wireless carriers.California to file lawsuit over Trump border wall.General Mills'(GIS) earnings miss sparks a food stocks sell-off.Zero Hedge: "Extraordinary & Worrisome" - WSJ Demands To Know How FBI 'Meddled' In 2016 Elections.Iran's Rouhani Responds To "Rogue Newcomer" Trump's "Ugly, Ignorant Words".FX Traders Haven't Been This Worried About An FOMC Meeting Since Last Year."I Have Decided": Trump Says He Has Made Decision On Iran Deal.Nasdaq Plunges As AAPL Suffers Triple Whammy.Venezuela Bankrupt? Caracas Fails To Make Sept 15 Interest Payment.WTI/RBOB Drop After Smaller-Than-Expected Gasoline Draw, Big Crude Production Rebound.Fed's Asset Bubbles Now At The Mercy Of The Rest Of The World's Central Bankers. (graph)Existing Home Sales Slump To 1-Year Lows, NAR Says "There's Simply Not Enough Homes For Sale"."We've Never Seen Anything Like This" - Maria Slams Puerto Rico With 9-Foot Storm Surge, 155Mph Winds.The Morning After: Mexican Earthquake Leaves Over 248 Dead, Millions Without Electricity.32 Children Dead, 30 More Missing In Rubble Of Collapsed Mexico City School.How Did Toys "R" Us Implode So Fast? The CEO Explains.[...]



Bear Radar

2017-09-20T13:38:02.294-04:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Growth unch.Sector Underperformers: 1) Semis -1.8% 2) Computer Hardware -1.3% 3) Homebuilders -.9%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: BBBY, SQM, MDXG, GIS, IONS, RGR, MMYT, AOBC, AERI, TROX, RCII and WDCStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) ALNY 2) KMX 3) GIS 4) BBBY 5) SM Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) BBBY 2) TNTR 3) LB 4) SNCR 5) SCS Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-09-20T13:20:21.845-04:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Value +.6%Sector Outperformers: 1) Education +2.0% 2) Oil Service +1.6% 3) Road & Rail +1.4% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:ALNY, JP, KPTI, VERI, MZOR, ACH, GEMP, TRU, ALOG, FANH, FDX, USG, CPRT, SELB, IMAX, AXON, AJRD, IGT, ALB, FSB, LBTYA, SPAR, MDCO, FPRX, HLNE and SCVLStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) PSEC 2) ALNY 3) NOV 4) FDX 5) ADBE Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) ALNY 2) CPRT 3) ANET 4) HIBB 5) CRS Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-09-20T11:29:49.407-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Wednesday Watch

2017-09-19T22:07:01.059-04:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:China's Under-the-Radar Bond Boom May Be Next Risk Target. China’s riskiest borrowers are ramping up sales of short-term dollar debt again, reigniting speculation the authorities will clamp down on what has become a way to raise cash under the radar. Beijing’s deleveraging drive -- endorsed by President Xi Jinping and the Politburo in April -- has inadvertently fueled a boom in short-end notes this year. As the National Development and Reform Commission started withholding approvals for offshore debt issuance by property developers and local government financing vehicles, companies got resourceful, selling debt due in one year or less as that doesn’t require permission from the authorities.Japan's Exports Jump 18% in Biggest Gain in Almost 4 Years. Japan has enjoyed a run of strong growth in exports this year, while rising imports add to signs that domestic demand is firming as well. The Japanese economy grew at an annualized 2.5 percent in the second quarter, more than double its potential growth rate. But while a weaker yen has improved trade data, inflation remains well below the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent target.Traders Hold Back Before Fed Decides on Policy. (video) The Topix index was little changed as of 9:10 a.m. Tokyo time. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 fell 0.4 percent, while the Kospi index in Seoul rose 0.1 percent. Futures on the Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong were little changed.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.Traders Boost Odds of Third Rate Hike This Year as FOMC Meets.McConnell Won't Promise Obamacare Repeal Vote as Foes Mobilize. (video) Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell refused to promise a vote on Republicans’ last-ditch proposal to repeal Obamacare as Democrats and other opponents started ramping up a new campaign Tuesday to block it. "If we were going to go forward, we would have to act before Sept. 30," McConnell told reporters when asked if the GOP-only bill will come to the Senate floor before next week’s procedural deadline. "We are in the process of discussing all of this."Uber Faces Widespread Asia Bribery Allegations Amid U.S. Criminal Probe. Uber Technologies Inc., facing a federal probe into whether it broke laws against overseas bribery, has embarked on a review of its Asia operations and notified U.S. officials about payments made by staff in Indonesia, people with knowledge of the matter said.Wall Street Journal: Latest Push for a Health-Law Repeal Picks Up Speed in the Senate. McConnell says talks for a vote to scrap most of the Affordable Care Act are under way, but challenges linger. Did Obama Know about Comey’s Surveillance? The media is less interested in Obama Administration wiretapping than in how Trump described it.United Nations General Assembly -- Live Analysis. Fox News:  Hurricane Maria takes aim at Puerto Rico, US Virgin Islands as Category 5 storm strengthens. (video)7.1 magnitude earthquake kills more than 100 in Mexico, collapses buildings. (video)CNBC: GOP senators closing in on tax cut plan. (video)Images of devastation from the Mexico City earthquake. (pics)Elizabeth Warren urges Fed to 'step up' and remove Wells Fargo's(WFC) board. (video)China's bitcoin clampdown is likely here to stay, analysts say. (video)Amazon(AMZN) is firing on all cylinders to grow its retail presence. (video)Bed Bath and Beyond(BBBY) shares tumble after worse-than-expected sales.Zero Hedge: At Least 94 Dead, 60 Pulled Alive From Rubble After Powerful Earthquake Rocks Central Mexico.Dramatic Footage Of Mexico Earthquake Shows Buildings Collapsing Into Rubble. Full Preview Of Tomorrow's "Historic" FOMC Meeting.Manafort Calls On DOJ To Release His Intercepted Phone Calls; Demands Investigation Of Leaks.Government By Goldman. Ahead Of Tomorrow's Historic Fed Meeting, Here Is The Only "Cheat Sheet" You Need. Cryptocurrency Concentration - Just 4% Own Over 95% Of Bitco[...]



Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Tax/Healthcare Reform Hopes, Economic Optimism, Technical Buying, Financial/Gaming Sector Strength

2017-09-19T15:22:50.129-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: LowerSector Performance: MixedVolume: Around Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.23 +.79%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 139.47 +.29% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.72 +.52% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 23.78 -1.95%ISE Sentiment Index 45.0 -37.97%Total Put/Call .75 -17.6% NYSE Arms 1.0 +11.67% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.03 -1.53% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 413.0 -1.52%European Financial Sector CDS Index 46.42 -2.73%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.72 +.75%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 17.97 -1.45%Emerging Market CDS Index 174.68 +2.34%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.65 -.07%2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 unch. TED Spread 29.75 +.25 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -1.0 basis pointsEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.59 +.07% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% +1.0 basis pointYield Curve 84.0 unch. China Import Iron Ore Spot $68.85/Metric Tonne -4.06% Citi US Economic Surprise Index -17.50 +5.1 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 21.20 +3.0 points Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.40 +1.0 basis point10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 unch.13.8% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 56.9% chance at Dec. 13 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -114 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating -14 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None of note Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-09-19T14:57:32.890-04:00

Bloomberg:China Considers Opening Up to Foreign Electric Carmakers. China is discussing a plan to allow foreign carmakers to set up wholly owned electric-vehicle businesses in its free-trade zones in a major revision of a fundamental principle governing the country’s auto industry policy since the 1990s, according to company officials briefed on the matter. The plan, which is subject to change as a final decision hasn’t been made, could be put in place as early as next year, the people said, asking not to be identified as the deliberations are private. If the policy takes effect, it would be a landmark departure from the existing rules, which require foreign automakers to set up joint ventures with local counterparts.Your Evening Briefing.The Sizzling Stock Market Is Making Investors Uneasy. Bearish bets are also piling up among mega-cap stocks, the biggest contributors to U.S. equity gains this year. As the Nasdaq 100 Index rose to a new high on Sept. 13, demand for protection grew to the most in over a year on the most popular ETF tracking the index, the Powershares QQQ Trust.FANG Stocks Take Repeated Hits and the World Keeps Spinning. You may have missed it, but the FANG block -- Facebook Inc., Amazon.com Inc. Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. -- dropped almost 7 percent during the August selloff, while Apple Inc. was down 3.5 percent from its 2017 peak at its worst point. But even with all the carnage, the S&P 500 kept going up, climbing above 2,500 for the first time.Wall Street Journal:Trump Issues Dire Warning to North Korea in Address to U.N. President threatens to ‘totally destroy’ Pyongyang regime and criticizes Iran deal at General Assembly.How to End ObamaCare in Two Pages. Call John Roberts’s bluff by disavowing the taxing power.How Antifa Violence Has Split the Left. Tactics of the group are creating a rift among liberals about whether to denounce a radical fringe whose objectives, if not methods, they often share.Cost Of Employer-Provided Health Insurance Rises Toward $19,000 a Year. And the share of firms that offer coverage continued to decline in 2017, according to a survey. Senate’s Three Health-Care Proposals: A Guide. Since GOP effort to repeal ACA failed, senators pitch widely different options.Nvidia’s(NVDA) Gains Are Real, Not Virtual. Fading hype over cryptocurrency brings focus back to more real opportunities for chipmaker.MarketWatch.com:More than half of these high-yield dividend stocks are on sale.Why stock market investors shouldn’t sweat a shrinking Fed balance sheet.European stocks waver as traders brace for Fed policy update. The Stoxx Europe 600 index SXXP, +0.04% ended marginally higher at 382.12, after trading in a relatively tight range during the session.Fox News: UN Speech: Trump Says 'Rocket Man' Kim Jong Un on 'Suicide Mission,' in Broadside at 'Rogue Regimes'. (video)'#TrumpVindicated'? Manafort Wiretap Report Could Boost Trump's Claim After Months of Media Mocking. (video)CNBC:Here’s why the new GOP Obamacare-replacement bill might actually pass in Congress.As charts point to a big bank rally, a technician says there is one name you want to bet on. (video)The iPhone 8 reviews are out and here's what people are saying. (video)Volvo expanding US production plans in South Carolina.The opioid epidemic is so bad it's driving down life expectancy in the US. The timing may be right for Facebook(FB) to enter China next year, analyst predicts.Zero Hedge:"This Is Where The Next Financial Crisis Will Come From". (graph)Trump's "Fiery" United Nations Speech: Full Transcript.Biggest Hedge Fund Manager In The World Warns "Bitcoin Is A Bubble", Says Gold Is Money.Buildings Collapse, Thousands Take To The Street After Powerful Quake Shakes Mexico City.Ahead Of Tomorrow's Historic Fed Meeting, Here Is The Only "Cheat Sheet" You Need. H[...]



Bear Radar

2017-09-19T13:45:22.466-04:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Value -.1%Sector Underperformers: 1) HMOs -2.5% 2) Hospitals -2.1% 3) Oil Service -1.0%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: SNCR, SUPN, EVHC, PTLA, BBY, NUVA, CNC, AZO, UNIT, GOGO, AYI, EVH, MD, ATGE and COOStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) TMUS 2) BBBY 3) FINL 4) MET 5) MAT Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) AYI 2) SUPN 3) NUVA 4) APRN 5) UA Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-09-19T13:23:10.552-04:00

Style Outperformer: Large-Cap Value +.3%Sector Outperformers: 1) Gaming +2.2% 2) Banks +1.1% 3) Telecom +.9% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:BOBE, VERI, QDEL, ASYS, HOFT, ZAGG, EFX, GDS, UBNT, MTOR, TMUS, KAI, COHR, KBWB, ADMS, VRNS, OLED, ACIA, SQM, VZ, AAOI, DQ, EPZM, NOC, REV, LUK and EROSStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) S 2) STAY 3) BBBY 4) AAOI 5) GLW Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) COHR 2) KORS 3) QDEL 4) NTAP 5) USB Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-09-19T11:12:45.245-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Tuesday Watch

2017-09-18T21:59:48.251-04:00

Evening HeadlinesBloomberg:Weakest China Developers Threatened by $38 Billion in Bond Puts. Chinese property developers face a wall of local bonds that investors can force them to pay off next year ahead of schedule, just as rising interest rates raise the risk that more note holders may opt to do so. Investors have an option to offload 250 billion yuan ($38 billion) of such notes in 2018, according to Bloomberg data. To put some perspective on that amount, it’s five times all their regularly maturing onshore bond principal this year.Why Asian Central Banks Are Sidestepping the Fed—For Now.Stocks in Asia Rise; Yen Steady After Two-Day Loss. Japan’s equity benchmarks gained more than 1 percent, playing catch-up to a rally on Monday, when Tokyo was closed for a holiday. The S&P 500 Index held above 2,500 to notch a fresh record Monday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added to its all-time high. The yen inched higher though held on to most of the losses in the two previous sessions. Gold was little changed as demand for safe-haven assets waned the past two trading days, while oil was steady just under $50 a barrel. Japan’s Topix index added 1.1 percent as of 9:17 a.m. Tokyo time. The Kospi index fluctuated and Australia’s main gauge increased 0.3 percent. Hang Seng Index futures were little changed.Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.Far From the Texas Coast, Hurricane Harvey Hits Oil Refiners. Three weeks after Hurricane Harvey ravaged the massive fuel-making industry along the Texas coast, the region’s recovery from storm damage is starting to disrupt plans for crucial maintenance at refineries thousands of miles away from the flood zones.Wall Street Journal: The Fed, a Decade After the Crisis, Is About to Embark on the Great Unwinding. After a historic buildup of its bond portfolio to support the U.S. economy, the central bank plans to shrink its holdings, entering uncharted territory.Bitcoin’s Wild Ride Shows The Truth: It Is Probably Worth Zero. The digital currency’s value depends on it becoming digital gold—or on criminals.Russia and China Begin Joint War Games. Neighbors display partnership and Moscow adds another show of might as U.N. General Assembly convenes.Northrop Grumman(NOC) Move to Acquire Rocket Maker Reflects Military Space Race. Deal for Orbital ATK is largest in defense sector in two years.Senate Passes Defense Bill to Boost Military Spending. Vote was 89-8; Senate negotiators now have to hammer out compromise with House.A Question for Anyone Getting an MRI. Patients need to know if the doctor plans to use contrast, or gadolinium, because it may leave harmful metal deposits; a new FDA warning. CNBC: Amazon(AMZN) Web Services will now charge by the second, its biggest pricing change in years. (video)After hours buzz: AMZN, INTC & more.Short-seller who exposed Valeant says 'it doesn't take a CFA' to recognize this next big fraud. (video)China government advisor warns on Trump: When countries close their doors, they 'will be harmed'. (video)Zero Hedge: Hillary Clinton May Challenge Legitimacy Of Presidential Election. (video)More Equifax(EFX) Lies? Company Originally Hacked Five Months Earlier Than It Disclosed.'Chapter 22' Bankruptcy Filings Increasingly 'En Vogue' For Struggling Retail Sector.Trump Approves Puerto Rico Emergency Declaration As Maria Strengthens Into "Potentially Catastrophic" Cat-5 Hurricane."I Don't Have Anything To Start Over" - Harvey Victims Pray For Relief As 1000s Remain Stuck In Shelters.Toys "R" Us To File Bankruptcy Any Minute; Bonds Crash.China Treasury Holdings Rise For 6th Month, But The Streak May Soon Be Ending.Obama Goes Full Clinton Foundation With Series Of $400,000 Wall Street Speeches.It's Up To McCain: R[...]



Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Economic Optimism, Yen Weakness, Technical Buying, Financial/Defense Sector Strength

2017-09-18T15:18:46.379-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Below Average Market Leading Stocks: OutperformingEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.33 +1.57%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.80 +.51% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.63 -.65% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 24.50 +3.95%ISE Sentiment Index 86.0 +19.4%Total Put/Call .91 -15.0% NYSE Arms 1.1 -8.21% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.20 -.06% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 423.0 +1.37%European Financial Sector CDS Index 47.55 -1.96%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.69 -5.26%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.22 -.44%Emerging Market CDS Index 170.84 +.99%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.75 +.02%2-Year Swap Spread 26.0 +.75 basis point TED Spread 29.50 +.5 basis point3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -24.5 -1.75 basis pointsEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.5 -.34% 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.02% -1.0 basis pointYield Curve 84.0 +2.0 basis pointsChina Import Iron Ore Spot $71.76/Metric Tonne -.51% Citi US Economic Surprise Index -22.60 -3.6 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.20 -.2 point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.40 -1.4 basis points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.88 +2.0 basis points15.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 56.0% chance at Dec. 13 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +86 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +62 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -17 open in GermanyPortfolio: Slightly Higher: On gains in my medical/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: None of note Market Exposure: 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-09-18T14:03:16.278-04:00

Style Underperformer: Mid-Cap Value +.2%Sector Underperformers: 1) Gold & Silver -1.9% 2) Hospitals -1.9% 3) Airlines -1.1%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: UBNT, BEAT, SMCI, CRTO, TDOC, AAN, CLDR, TEVA, TER and ABEOStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) UBNT 2) RAD 3) HAS 4) BBBY 5) FSLR Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) UBNT 2) SMCI 3) FINL 4) TDOC 5) SCG Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-09-18T13:43:02.627-04:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Growth +1.0%Sector Outperformers: 1) Alternative Energy +1.9% 2) Semis +1.8% 3) Agriculture +1.6% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:SSNI, OA, FANH, BIP, MTOR, ETM, HALO, ITRI, QDEL, BLCM, AAAP, GLYC, RGNX, SGBK, AXON, COHU, CLVS, RARX, AJRD, GKOS, SQM, UCTT, NTES, CF, ESIO, ANAB, COHU, AAOI, AJRD, CLVS, EVBG, VDSI, NVDA, RGNX, KTOS, ACET and VSARStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) TMUS 2) V 3) AXP 4) MOS 5) ETN Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) NVRB 2) FANH 3) NVDA 4) CAT 5) AMAT Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-09-18T12:17:15.598-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
(image)



Monday Watch

2017-09-17T22:52:26.423-04:00

Today's Headlines Bloomberg:Four US Tourists Attacked With Acid in Marseille, Official Says. Four young female U.S. tourists were attacked with acid Sunday in the French city of Marseille by a woman who has been arrested, the Marseille prosecutor's office said. Two of the tourists were injured in the face in the attack in the city's main Saint Charles train station and one of them has a possible eye injury, a spokeswoman for the Marseille prosecutor's office told The Associated Press in a phone call. She said all four of the tourists, who are in their 20s, have been hospitalized, two of them for shock. She said a 41 -year-old female suspect has been arrested.China Home Prices Rise in Fewer Cities as Property Market Cools. China’s home prices rose in the fewest cities since January, adding to signs of a real estate industry slowdown as officials persist with curbs to limit the risk of bubbles. New-home prices, excluding government-subsidized housing, in August gained in 46 of 70 cities tracked by the government, compared with 56 in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday. Prices fell in 18 cities from the previous month and were unchanged in six.World's Central Banks Can't Ignore the Bitcoin Boom, BIS Says. The world’s central banks can’t sit back and ignore the growth in cryptocurrencies as it could pose a risk to the stability of the financial system, according to the Bank for International Settlements.What the Surging Yuan Means for China's Economy. (video) The yuan’s surge this year is proving a double-edged sword, risking hurting the nation’s exports even while boosting the chances of currency and capital control reforms. The exchange rate’s 6 percent advance this year has crushed depreciation pressures, allowing policy makers the freedom to loosen capital outflow controls that may impact the currency. The People’s Bank of China took a step in that direction on Sept . 11, scrapping a reserve requirement on the trading of foreign-exchange forwards that had made it expensive to short the yuan. Some of the potential lifting of curbs may help companies by making their overseas investment efforts easier. Here’s a look at the implications of the yuan’s strength:The U.K.'s Economic Outlook Is Getting Rosier.Yen Falls as Havens Retreat; Stocks Climb in Asia. (video) The yen declined as havens retreated after the worst-case scenarios for North Korea and hurricanes in the U.S. didn’t eventuate, while stocks inched higher in Asia following a record-breaking Wall Street session. Futures on the S&P 500 Index advanced with equities in Australia, South Korea and Hong Kong. Japan markets are closed for a holiday on Monday. The S&P 500 climbed above 2,500 for the first time on Friday and the Dow Jones Industrial Average chalked another record close as investors shrugged off the latest North Korean missile test. The dollar bounced after declining on Friday when U.S. retail sales raised concerns about the strength of the economy. The Kospi index rose 0.9 percent and Australia’s main gauge was up 0.6 percent. The Hang Seng Index in Hong Kong gained 0.7 percent. Gauges in China were slightly higher. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.4 percent.IEA Sees Risk of Volatile Oil Prices on Weak Upstream Investment. A dearth of new investment in oil production is stoking a risk of tighter crude supply and unstable prices, even as demand growth is expected to slow over the next five years, according to a senior International Energy Agency official. The worldwide cushion of spare production capacity will shrink without furt[...]



Weekly Outlook

2017-09-17T22:49:00.439-04:00

Wall St. Week Ahead by CNBC.Week Ahead by TheStreet. Stocks to Watch Next Week by Seeking Alpha. Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on more dovish global central bank commentary, diminished geopolitical fears, oil gains, technical buying, short-covering and yen weakness. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.[...]



Today's Headlines

2017-09-16T19:06:17.463-04:00

Bloomberg:U.S. Stocks Reach Another Milestone as S&P 500 Vaults Past 2,500. The S&P 500 Index powered past 2,500 for the first time, notching its third round-number milestone of the year as the bull market in U.S. equities rages on. The benchmark gained 0.2 percent to 2,500.23 Friday, capping its biggest weekly advance since January, as technology shares rebounded and banks climbed with Treasury yields. Up 12 percent since January, the S&P 500 is on course for its best annual gain in four years.U.K. Arrests Man in Train Attack as Threat Level Stays Critical. Police have arrested an 18-year-old man on the U.K. southeast coast in connection with the detonation of an improvised bomb on a London tube train that injured at least 29 people. The man was arrested in the port area of Dover, a major ferry hub for travel to France, on Saturday and is being held under a section of the U.K. Terrorism Act, the Metropolitan Police said in a statement. He is being held at a local police station then will be transferred to south London “in due course.”North Korea Says Missile Test Was Aimed at ‘Confirming Action Procedures of Actual War’. North Korea said it will complete its nuclear program in the face of heightened United Nations sanctions after the isolated nation on Friday fired a second intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan. Leader Kim Jong Un claimed his nuclear program is nearly complete despite a series of sanctions by the UN Security Council and his final goal is to build “the equilibrium of real force” with the U.S. and prevent military action against Pyongyang, the Korean Central News Agency said Saturday. Kim personally guided the launch of the latest Hwasong-12 missile, it said.ECB Bond Reinvestments Could Be Shock Absorber as QE Decelerates. As the European Central Bank prepares to slow its bond-buying program, policy makers are considering softening the blow by highlighting a related measure -- the reinvestment of maturing debt. An average of 15 billion euros ($18 billion) a month of assets held under quantitative easing will mature next year, according to euro-area central bank officials who said the figure was presented at the last Governing Council meeting. While the plan to reinvest that cash has long been a part of policy, the ECB is concerned that investors are under-appreciating its impact, three people said. A spokesman for the central bank declined to comment.More Than a Million Ford(F) Explorers May Face Recall Due to Fumes.Wall Street Journal: Frustration With Republicans Drove Donald Trump to Deal With Democrats. Shift raises prospect of future collaborations; Nancy Pelosi says White House and GOP ‘don’t have the votes’. Months of mounting frustration with the lack of progress in the Republican-led Congress drove President Donald Trump to cut legislative deals with top Democrats, according to White House officials, raising the prospect of future collaborations on subjects from immigration to a tax overhaul to spending bills.Facebook(FB) Gave Special Counsel Robert Mueller More Details on Russian Ad Buys Than Congress. Social-media company shared copies of ads and account information, people familiar with the matter said. The Lattice Warning to China. The U.S. blocks the purchase of a firm with sensitive technology.Two Top Equifax Executives to Retire. The departures of the company’s chief information officer and chief security officer come in the wake of a massive data breach. What’s the Point of a Liberal Education? Don’t Ask the Ivy Lea[...]



Weekly Scoreboard*

2017-09-15T15:18:34.118-04:00

S&P 500 2,497.67 +1.45%The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.   IndicesDJIA 22,259.30 +2.13%NASDAQ 6,446.90 +1.36%Russell 2000 1,429.54 +2.14%S&P 500 High Beta 38.03 +3.06% Goldman 50 Most Shorted 138.21 +1.48% Wilshire 5000 25,839.40 +1.55%Russell 1000 Growth 1,251.75 +1.02%Russell 1000 Value 1,152.08 +1.94%S&P 500 Consumer Staples 568.29 +.63%Vanda Cyclicals-Defensives 1.3323 +.81% NYSE Technology 1,556.03 +1.8%Transports 9,519.67 +1.43%Utilities 745.29 -.24%Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 99.19 +2.8%MSCI Emerging Markets 45.37 +1.07%HFRX Equity Hedge 1,224.74 +.64%HFRX Equity Market Neutral 1,010.63 +.06%Sentiment/InternalsNYSE Cumulative A/D Line 301,211 +.78%Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 393 +55Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 65.71 +66.5% CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 382,113 +4.44% CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,326,586 +3.54% Total Put/Call 1.08 -2.78%OEX Put/Call .34 -75.69%ISE Sentiment 76.0 -3.8% NYSE Arms 1.18 -7.52%Volatility(VIX) 10.3 -14.7%S&P 500 Implied Correlation 25.78 -22.7%G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.71 -.8%Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.70 -5.41% Smart Money Flow Index 19,643.41 +.67%ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.739 Trillion +.62%ICI US Equity Weekly Net New Cash Flow -$4.280 BillionAAII % Bulls 41.3 +41.0%AAII % Bears 22.0 -39.0% Futures Spot PricesCRB Index 183.87 +1.42%Crude Oil 49.78 +4.46%Reformulated Gasoline 166.54 +1.0%Natural Gas 3.02 +3.97%Heating Oil 179.22 +1.51%Gold 1,322.0 -1.92%Bloomberg Base Metals Index 194.16 -2.67% Copper 295.15 -2.91%US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 281.67 USD/Ton unch.China Iron Ore Spot 72.13 USD/Ton -3.0%Lumber 379.10 -2.29%UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,045.24 +1.25%EconomyAtlanta Fed GDPNow Forecast +3.0 +10.0 basis points ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate +.3% -60.0 basis pointsPhilly Fed ADS Real-Time Business Conditions Index -.6935 +7.26% US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 97.90 +1.25% S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 140.75 +.21%Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.0 +4.8 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.4 -1.2 pointsCiti Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.90 -9.6 points Fed Fund Futures imply 86.0% chance of no change, 14.0% chance of 25 basis point hike on 9/20US Dollar Index 91.90 +.65%MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,644.22 -.8%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.0 +1.93% Yield Curve 82.0 +3.0 basis points10-Year US Treasury Yield 2.20% +14.0 basis pointsFederal Reserve's Balance Sheet $4.431 Trillion +.41%U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 25.91 -.02%Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 334.75 -.04% Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 4.95 -10.0%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 18.32 -5.83%Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt CDS Index 40.91 -5.91%Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 52.14 -5.1% South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 68.98 -2.53% Russia Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.15 -5.44% iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.73 +.16%10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86% +5.0 basis pointsTED Spread 29.0 -2.0 basis points 2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +1.25 basis points 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 -.75 basis pointN. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.39 -5.56%America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 419.0 -5.8% European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 48.37 -7.17%Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 169.48 -3.88%CMBS AAA Super Senior 10-Year Treasury Spread to Swaps 150.0 +1[...]



Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Less Emerging Markets Debt Angst, Oil Gain, Yen Weakness, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Strength

2017-09-15T14:55:15.636-04:00

Broad Equity Market Tone:Advance/Decline Line: HigherSector Performance: MixedVolume: Above Average Market Leading Stocks: Performing In LineEquity Investor Angst:Volatility(VIX) 10.25 -1.82%Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.05 +.76% Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.70 -.26% S&P 500 Implied Correlation 25.7 +14.3%ISE Sentiment Index 76.0 -34.5%Total Put/Call 1.08 +35.0% NYSE Arms 1.19 +24.9% Credit Investor Angst:North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.35 -.43% America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 419.0 +.22%European Financial Sector CDS Index 48.41 -1.59%Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 4.95 +.3%Asia Pacific Sovereign Debt CDS Index 18.31 -.62%Emerging Market CDS Index 168.81 -2.22%iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 141.73 -.10%2-Year Swap Spread 25.25 +.5 basis point TED Spread 29.0 +1.25 basis points3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -22.75 +.25 basis pointEconomic Gauges:Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.77 unch.3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.03% -2.0 basis pointsYield Curve 82.0 -1.0 basis pointChina Import Iron Ore Spot $72.13/Metric Tonne -2.51% Citi US Economic Surprise Index -19.0 -13.4 pointsCiti Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 18.40 -.2 point Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 15.90 +1.8 basis points10-Year TIPS Spread 1.86 +1.0 basis point15.6% chance of Fed rate hike at Nov. 1 meeting, 52.6% chance at Dec. 13 meetingOverseas Futures:Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -35 open in Japan China A50 Futures: Indicating +32 open in ChinaDAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in GermanyPortfolio: Higher: On gains in my retail/tech sector longs Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long[...]



Bear Radar

2017-09-15T13:17:22.193-04:00

Style Underperformer: Large-Cap Value unch.Sector Underperformers: 1) Software -.9% 2) Oil Service -.6% 3) Airlines -.5%Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: ALDX, EFX, BEAT, GKOS, ORCL, SMCI, ANSS, CCL, TRU, CPE, AYI, IMMU and HSICStocks With Unusual Put Option Activity: 1) CL 2) SIRI 3) NBR 4) PEP 5) FOLD Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions: 1) BEAT 2) EFX 3) ATUS 4) CCL 5) AYI Charts: ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume [...]



Bull Radar

2017-09-15T13:05:02.479-04:00

Style Outperformer: Small-Cap Growth +.3%Sector Outperformers: 1) Semis +1.7% 2) Alt Energy +1.3% 3) Agriculture +1.0% Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:MRTX, AZUL, TSG, ABEO, HALO, ICPT, PLSE, GNRC, VERI, VNDA, SUPV, BLCM, SKM, SHPG, PRGS, LYB, FSLR, WEN, DQ, UNFI, HSIC, SQM, NVDA, SCWX, MGEE, REN, IGT, AMC, LTRPA, UCTT and ZAGGStocks With Unusual Call Option Activity: 1) IGT 2) HST 3) GLUU 4) IYR 5) TAHO Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions: 1) MRTX 2) CCNI 3) NVDA 4) FSLR 5) TNK Charts: ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume [...]



Morning Market Internals

2017-09-15T11:13:58.394-04:00

NYSE Composite Index:
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Friday Watch

2017-09-14T22:51:47.567-04:00

Night Trading Asian equity indices are -.75% to unch. on average.Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 74.0 -.25 basis point.  Asia Pacific Sovereign CDS Index 18.5 +.5 basis point.Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 74.57 +.02%. S&P 500 futures -.19%. NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%. Morning Preview Links Earnings of Note Company/Estimate None of noteEconomic Releases  8:30 am ESTEmpire Manufacturing for September is estimated to fall to 18.0 versus 25.2 in August.Advance Retail Sales MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.6% in July.Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for August is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.5% gain in July.Retail Sales Ex Autos and Gas for August is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in July. 9:15 am ESTIndustrial Production MoM for August is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in July.Capacity Utilization for August is estimated at 76.7% versus 76.7% in July.Manufacturing Production for August is estimated to rise +.3% versu a -.1% decline in July. 10:00 am ESTPreliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for September is estimated to fall to 95.0 versus 96.8 in August. Business Inventories for July are estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.5% gain in June.Upcoming Splits None of noteOther Potential Market Movers The Eurozone Trade Balance report could also impact trading today.BOTTOM LINE:  Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.[...]