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Preview: Moody's Investors Services: Credit Trends Commentary

Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics

The Credit Market Trends Service is a Web-based Economic Service focused on the fixed income market. The service compiles economic data and commentary from Moody's expert economists and is released in a rolling fashion throughout the day, week and month.

Published: 9/22/2017 3:28:00 PM


Corporate Debt Accelerates Despite Marked Deceleration by C&I Loans

09/21/2017 06:33 PM

core PCE price index inflation is likely to average something less than 2% annually through 2027, especially if employee compensation cannot sustain a pace faster than 4% annually.

Economic Roundup: Surprise Decline in U.S. Initial Claims

09/21/2017 05:00 PM

We still expect the hurricanes to depress job growth in September.

Market Value of Common Stock Sets New Zenith and VIX Index Sinks Under 10 Points Despite FOMC

09/20/2017 06:31 PM

The expected 2% to 3% return from bonds during the next 10 years is at odds with the FOMC’s median projection of a 2.75% federal funds rate over the long-term.

Economic Roundup: Goodbye QE, for Now

09/20/2017 04:47 PM

The FOMC statement was slightly more hawkish, signaling a likely rate hike in December.

Business Roundtable Index Says Pricey Stocks May Not Soon Implode … China Rules EMC Rated Issuance

09/19/2017 07:08 PM

The CEO’s business outlook index shows a strong inverse coincident correlation of -0.86 with the high-yield bond spread.

Economic Roundup: Bumpy Road Ahead for U.S. Homebuilding

09/19/2017 05:19 PM

Recent hurricanes could reduce starts in September before boosting them in the fourth quarter.

Economic Roundup: Global Inflation Perks Up in August

09/19/2017 11:01 AM

Time will tell if it sticks.

Latest Drop by VIX Signals Thinner Spreads … Labor Costs Slow Despite Lower Jobless Rate

09/18/2017 06:15 PM

The further expansion of profits would go far at fulfilling expectations of a lower default rate.

US Equities Surged by 29% YY in December 2013 Despite a 118 bp YY Jump by 10-year Treasury Yield

09/15/2017 06:40 PM

Helping to rein in core CPI inflation was a deepening of core consumer goods price deflation from July’s -0.6% to the -0.9% of August.

Economic Roundup: Looking for the Hurricane Effect

09/15/2017 04:49 PM

U.S. Retail sales disappointed in August, but some of the weakness can be attributed to Harvey.

Equities Plunged by -47%, on Average, During Last Two Recessions

09/14/2017 06:51 PM

The market’s volatility since 1982 warns of inescapable downside risk.

Economic Roundup: U.S. Inflation Ticks Up, but Implicatons Are Minor

09/14/2017 05:14 PM

Harvey and Irma are making waves in the economy.

Richly Priced Stocks and an Ultra-Low VIX Index Do Not Assure Impending Doom

09/13/2017 06:15 PM

Who dared to predict back in October 1987 that the 10-year Treasury yield would never again visit 10% during the next 30 years?

Economic Roundup: The Price Is Right

09/13/2017 05:32 PM

The producer price index for final demand rose 0.2% in August.

Core PCE Price Index Inflation of 1.5% to 2% Reins In Both VIX Index and Spreads

09/12/2017 07:03 PM

By itself, September 12’s VIX index of 10.58 points has been statistically consistent with a 326 bp midpoint for the high-yield bond spread.

Economic Roundup: Let the Good Times Roll

09/12/2017 05:00 PM

The JOLTS report confirms a steady expansion of the labor market.

High-Yield Spread Anticipates Fewer Downgrades Vis-a-vis Upgrades for High Yield

09/11/2017 06:53 PM

In terms of moving yearlong averages, private-sector ECI growth shows a surprisingly strong correlation of 0.86 with the 10-year Treasury yield ...

Economic Roundup: Global Business Sentiment Remains Strong

09/11/2017 05:37 PM

Italy’s industrial output continued to grow in July, rising by 0.1% from June.

Core Inflation’s Deceleration amid a Low Jobless Rate Implies Next Slump May Be Deflationary

09/08/2017 07:25 PM

If core inflation eases amid a historically low and declining jobless rate, what might happen to core consumer prices once unemployment inevitably rises?

Economic Roundup: Things Looking Up for U.S. GDP, for Now

09/08/2017 05:09 PM

The inventory build is coming in larger than previously thought, boosting Q3 growth.

Profit Margins and Low Inflation Benefit from Flat Unit Labor Costs

09/07/2017 07:00 PM

Sluggish labor productivity growth is a manifestation of the atypically brisk expansion of payrolls relative to output.

Economic Roundup: Harvey, Irma, Debt Ceiling, ECB, Oh My

09/07/2017 05:16 PM

It may be wishful thinking, but there is some talk of eliminating the debt ceiling.

Job Market Determines Whether a Plunge by Profits Sends Default Rate Skyward

09/06/2017 07:01 PM

The high-yield default rate soared above 10% in only three of the five episodes showing a -10% drop by core profits from the relevant record high.

Economic Roundup: A Day Full of Surprises

09/06/2017 05:24 PM

U.S. trade deficit barely budges, BoC raises rates, and Fed's Fischer resigns.

Special Events Drive 10-year Treasury Yield to Lowest Close since November 9, 2016

09/05/2017 07:15 PM

Fed funds futures now imply only a 32% likelihood of another fed funds rate hike by the end of 2017.