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Preview: Moody's Investors Services: Credit Trends Commentary

Credit Trends from Moody's Analytics



The Credit Market Trends Service is a Web-based Economic Service focused on the fixed income market. The service compiles economic data and commentary from Moody's expert economists and is released in a rolling fashion throughout the day, week and month.



Published: 11/18/2017 6:24:37 PM

 



Higher Leverage Causes EDFs to be Less Upbeat than the High-Yield Spread

11/17/2017 06:18 PM

the divergence between the EDFs and the high-yield spread since 2014 might be ascribed to an increase in the market value of leverage that has been mitigated by a still relatively low ratio of net interest expense to internal funds.



Economic Roundup: A Promising Sign for the U.S. Housing Market

11/17/2017 04:51 PM

Starts came in noticeably better than either we or the consensus expected.



Profits Growth Will Rein in High-Yield Spreads

11/16/2017 07:15 PM

since the end of June 2017, the number of improved outlooks for US corporate credit quality has surpassed the number of worsened outlooks.



Economic Roundup: U.S. Factory Conditions Are Improving

11/16/2017 05:31 PM

U.S. industrial production advanced 0.9% in October, its best monthly gain since April



High Ratio of Corporate Debt to Cash Flow May Help to Contain Interest Rates

11/15/2017 06:37 PM

The Fed still has the luxury of heeding the risks implicit to the comparatively steep ratio of corporate debt to internal funds.



Economic Roundup: A December Rate Hike Looking More Likely

11/15/2017 05:00 PM

We are raising our subjective odds of the Fed move from 75% to 85%.



Positive Outlooks for Profits and Credit Assume a Manageable Rise by Interest Rates

11/14/2017 06:38 PM

Housing-related stock prices are now up by 37.0% since the end of 2016, which both far outruns the accompanying 14.5% increase by the market value of US common stock and deeply discounts the possibility of a disruptive ascent by mortgage yields.



Economic Roundup: It's Full Steam Ahead for the U.S. Economy

11/14/2017 05:13 PM

U.S. small-business confidence improved in October and remains consistent with solid GDP growth.



Low VIX Keeps the High-Yield Spread Under 400 bp

11/13/2017 07:13 PM

The extraordinarily minimal recent VIX index of 11.1 points has a strong influence on why both midpoints are relatively low.



Economic Roundup: Business Sentiment Is Softening but Strong

11/13/2017 05:02 PM

Recent natural disasters in the U.S. may have affected the survey results.



High-Yield EDFs Still Indicate Spreads Are Too Thin

11/10/2017 06:27 PM

Despite how a recent VIX index of 11.3 points tops its 10.7-point average of June-October 2017, the latest VIX index still predicts a 341 bp midpoint for the high-yield spread.



Economic Roundup: Good Results in the Global Economy

11/10/2017 05:06 PM

U.S. consumer sentiment has bought back some of last month’s increase.



Lower Default Rate Puts Odds of a Higher Equity Market at 90%

11/09/2017 06:41 PM

Corporate credit quality influences the valuation of common equity.



Economic Roundup: Dueling Tax Plans

11/09/2017 05:19 PM

The Senate's proposal calls for a delay of the corporate tax cut until 2019.



More Credit, Fewer Takers

11/08/2017 07:06 PM

The business-sector’s demand for bank credit has eased, even though the supply of bank credit available to businesses has become more plentiful ...



Economic Roundup: No Major U.S. Labor Market Glitches in First Quarter

11/08/2017 05:45 PM

Job gains fell a bit short of previous quarters, but this was likely transitory.



Gap between 10- and 2-Year Treasury Yields Is Thinnest since October 2007

11/07/2017 06:48 PM

For now, the Treasury bond market has shrugged off an impending climb by headline consumer price inflation owing to an unfolding climb by gasoline prices.



Economic Roundup: Sturdy U.S. Labor Market Stays on Track

11/07/2017 05:18 PM

At the end of September, employers had 6.1 million posted openings.



Unlike 1998-2000’s Gross Overpricing of Equities, Default Risk Is Now Flat to Lower

11/06/2017 06:39 PM

Today’s ultra-low VIX favors a further narrowing of investment- and speculative-grade bond yield spreads.



Economic Roundup: Global Economy Remains in Good Health

11/06/2017 05:20 PM

Global business sentiment is strong but has softened in recent weeks.



Stable Core Inflation Portends a Low VIX Index and Thin Spreads

11/03/2017 06:15 PM

October’s employment report lessened the risk of faster inflation and significantly higher interest rates.



Economic Roundup: GDP Growth Is Looking Up

11/03/2017 04:48 PM

U.S. trade and factory orders raised our tracking estimate of third quarter GDP growth from 3.1% to 3.3% at an annualized rate.



Slowdown by Unit Labor Costs Enhances Outlooks for Profits and Credit

11/02/2017 07:16 PM

The recent deceleration by unit labor cost growth more than eight years into an economic recovery is without precedent.



Economic Roundup: A Policy Whirlwind

11/02/2017 05:11 PM

U.S. tax legislation, Fed chair nominee, and a BoE rate hike, oh my.



Market Value of Common Stock Sets Record High Via-a-Vis Corporate Net Revenues

11/01/2017 07:01 PM

During the five-years-ended Q2-2017, the average annual rates of growth were 12.1% for the market value of US common stock and 3.7% for corporate GVA.