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Just facts

Updated: 2014-10-01T00:19:14.523-07:00


CND - New housing price index for February


The New Housing Price Index increase of 0.5% in February.
  • 10 out of 21 metropolitan areas have saw the NHPI jump

The location where the increase was the biggest is Regina

Official press release

US - Export Price Index in March


With a growth of 0.7% in March, export prices increase for a second month in a row.

  • Agricultural and nonagricultural goods are contributing equally

For March, nonagriculturals prices are mainly driven by industrial product and material

Official press release

US - Imports price index for March


Import price jumped 1.7% in March after a small increase of 0.6% in February
  • Mainly form a big leap of 9% in petrolum product

Excluding oil, it's a increase of 0.3%. Overall it's the biggest hike since Mai 2006

Official press release

US - Initial Claims for the week ending April 7th


In the week ending April 7th, seasonnaly adjusted claims are up 19,000 to 342,000 form a revised 323,000.
  • The 4 week moving average is up 7,000 from the previous week

For next releases, it will be important to take a close look at this figure because claims can skyrocket fast and if they continue to climb, the employment may fall sharply sooner that later.

Official press release

US - FOMC minutes of March 21st


The FOMC is still concerned by inflation risk and expect growth to slow in 2007.
  • Inflation is still at an uncomfortable level for the committee
  • Further decisions about FedFunds will be function of economic growth and inflation

Here is the FOMC expressing concern about inflation:

“In these circumstances, the Committee’s predominant policy concern remains
the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected. Future policy
adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation
and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.”
It will be important to take a close look at numbers coming until the next meeting because a surge in oil price is likely to maintain inflation high. If the FOMC feel that household and professionals forecasters expect inflation to remain high they may increase FedFunds target in August against all expectations.

Official press release

CND - Housing start in March


Canadian housing starts rose 210,900 on an annual basis from a 196,000 increase in February.
  • This number is higher than expected
  • Mainly form a increase in multi-family starts

The CMHC and the BoC expect construction to slowdown this year to 209,500 units. It's western canadian provinces that account for a major part of the growth.

Official Press release

US - Wholesales Trades in February


Wholesales remain resilient as durable goods decline.
  • Wholesales were up 1.2% in February form a revised 0.1% in January.
  • Inventories hike a half percent.
  • Durable goods are down 0.8% mainly from construction material.
Excluding petroleum, sales growth 0.4% as this report is not corrected for price. As durable goods are a leading indicator of consumption behavior, one can expect a slowdown in wholesales in the next few month.

Official press release

US - Employment in March


Employment is up in March help by a regain in construction as weather is more warm.
  • Unemployment rate is down 0.1% at 4.4%.
  • Payroll up 180,000, more than expected.
  • Average earning growth slowdown at 0.3%.
This report is not showing any deterioration of the labor market. Despite the fact that employment survey are often subject to revision.

Official press release

CND - Ivey PMI for March


Ivey PMI index at 67.3 which mean more purchase in March than in February.
  • Price paid are up
  • Employment have increase

This is good news form pursaching managers as canadian economy is still healthy

Official press release

CND - Employment for March


Employment jumped by 55,000 in March, continuing the upward trend that began in September 2006.
  • Unemployment rate stayed at 6.1%
  • For the first quarter of 2007 employment is up 158,000

This situation is coming from a increase of people entering the job market. The employment rate in March reached 63.5% a summit in 31 years

Official press release

US - Initial Claim in the week ending March 31


Seasonally adjusted initial claims was 321,000 for the week ending March 31, an increase of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 310,000.
  • 4 weeks moving average down 1500

This data release is still mixed, employment is holding as consumer continue to spend, insurance claims should sky rocket in the middle (2008Q1) of up coming recession.

CND - Building permits for February


Building permits in February for Canada sank to their lowest level in a year.
  • A slowdown in both residential and non-residential construction have caused that situation

This is negative for up coming month for the construction sector since building permits level is a leading indicator of the number of construction put in place.

Official press release

US - Manufacturers's Shipments, Inventories and Orders For Feburary


With a increase of 1%, new orders for manufactured goods in February are up three of the last four months.
  • Shipments down for the second month
  • Inventories for durable goods up for twelve consecutive months

This is not a good new for US manufacturers, as the economy is slowing, they should accumulate more inventories and receive less orders.

Official press release

US - ISM service for March


The ISM service index at 52.4 points in march down 1.9 points form February.
  • New order exports are in the contracting zone.
  • Employment index at 50.8.

Slowly the two ISM indexes converge toward 50 and maybe below, both report show a sluggish growth in employment, a bad news for consumer.

Official press release

US - ISM manufacturing index for March


The ISM manufacturing index at 50.9 in march down 1.4 points form February.
  • The New Orders and Production Indexes advanced
  • The Employment and Inventories Indexes declined

Second month in a row that the index remain in growth zone.

Official press release

US - Construction spending for February


Construction spending rose 0.3 % against all expectation in February.
  • Mainly because gains in non-residential activities have offset the residential drop.
  • This is the biggest increase since March 2006.
Markets expected a 0.6% drop, and this situation is unlikely to happen again next month.

Official press release

CND - Real GDP for January


The canadian GDP growth slow at a pace of 0.1% in January form 0,4% in December.
  • This slowdown was caused by a decline in manufacturing activity particularly in the auto sector.
  • The public sector and utilities have grew the most.

This deceleration should continue in February because of a strike in the railways industry.

Official press release

US - University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment


At 88.4, the UMICS sank by 2.9 points.
  • The index have reach it lowest level since September 2006.
  • Current economics condition index felt more than expectation.

This news is confirming the point of view that consumer spending will decelerate in 2007.

Official press release

US - Personal income and outlays for February


Consumption spending and personal income increase more that expected in February.

  • Consumer real spending grew 0.2% after a 0.3% hike in January.
  • Personal income rose by 0.6% mainly from an jump in transfers.

Bad news for M. Bernake as inflation remain out of the Fed comfort zone.

  • PCE inflation at 2.4% on a year on year basis.
Cold weather have boosted energy consumption.

Official press release