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2016 Passing Plus-Minus

Thu, 25 May 2017 14:47:31 -0400

Sam Bradford broke Drew Brees' record for completion percentage, but did he beat Brees to the best passing plus-minus? Also: a down year for the 2004 draft class, and an MVP falls to the bottom of the league.

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Adjusted Interceptions 2016

Tue, 23 May 2017 15:51:33 -0400

The quarterback class of 2004 had wildly different results when it came to would-be interceptions that were dropped by defenders. Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning were very lucky. Philip Rivers? Not so much.

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Cortez Kennedy Passes Away

Tue, 23 May 2017 13:23:14 -0400

Former defensive tackle Cortez Kennedy has died at the age of 48, per the Orlando Police Department. Kennedy was a star at the University of Miami and a star with the Seattle Seahawks after they took him with the third overall pick in the 1990 draft. He was thrice named first-team All-Pro, was the NFL's Defensive Player of the Year in 1992 for a Seahawks team that went 2-14 (and finished third in defensive DVOA), and was named to the NFL's All-Decade Team for the 1990s. He was inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame in 2012. R.I.P.




2017 NFL Rule Changes

Tue, 23 May 2017 13:15:49 -0400

The NFL's owner meetings have led to a few rule changes for the 2017 season.

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Near Certainty: Wade Phillips Will Improve Rams Defense

Mon, 22 May 2017 14:40:27 -0400

Over at ESPN's NFL Nation, Los Angeles Rams reporter Alden Gonzalez dips a little deeper into Wade Phillips' phenomenal record of improving defenses. The numbers are dramatic, whether you use DVOA, points, or yards. This is a big reason why our 2017 projections are surprisingly positive about the Rams.




Hope For Jared Goff?

Mon, 22 May 2017 13:34:33 -0400

After a disastrous rookie campaign, is there hope the Rams quarterback can turn his career around? Guest columnist Damon Gulczynski pores through the FO database in search of other passers who struggled out of the gate before finding success down the line.

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The Sam Bradford Index

Fri, 19 May 2017 18:22:14 -0400

Sam Bradford set an NFL record last year by completing 71.6 percent of his passes, but he was also last in the league with 9.8 yards per completion. Chase Stuart at Football Perspective looks for other quarterbacks with similar styles -- high completion rates but few yards per completion, for their era. Featuring lots of appearances by Joe Montana, Len Dawson, and Fran Tarkenton!

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The Panthers Have the Weapons to Conquer the NFL with Option Football

Thu, 18 May 2017 15:50:59 -0400

You could use a lot of harsh words to describe the Carolina offense in recent years, but "predictable" might be the most accurate. FO alum Mike Tanier looks at the new weapons the Panthers have added in Christian McCaffrey and Curtis Samuel, then uses video clips and play diagrams to show how they can be used to make life much easier -- and safer -- for Cam Newton.

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Four Downs: NFC West

Thu, 18 May 2017 12:43:30 -0400

The Seahawks have dominated this division for years despite a subpar offensive line, a weakness that seems to have spread to their rivals in California. Then there's the Cardinals, who will soon face life without Carson Palmer.

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Four Downs: NFC South

Wed, 17 May 2017 12:30:20 -0400

The Saints need a pass-rusher, and the Panthers and Bucs need defensive backs. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, the league's best offense needs ... more offense?

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Four Downs: NFC North

Tue, 16 May 2017 12:13:31 -0400

The Bears need defensive backs, the Lions need pass-rushers, the Vikings need receivers, and the Packers need to decide if they're going to keep playing a wide receiver at running back.

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ESPN: Updated 2017 Team Projections

Mon, 15 May 2017 12:45:45 -0400

Here are some updated 2017 team projections on ESPN Insider. These are fairly similar to those we ran in April, because the NFL draft doesn't have as much effect as you might think on the ability to predict next season. Obviously, the draft can have a huge effect -- it just isn't a predictable one. The one thing we have found is that drafting defensive talent high is more positive for the immediate future than drafting offensive talent, which is why the Colts and Ravens are a little better in this forecast while the Chargers and Bengals drop a little.




Four Downs: NFC East

Mon, 15 May 2017 12:02:43 -0400

There's a common theme among much of this division, with Dallas, Philadelphia, and Washington all needing more help to stop opposing passing attacks. Then there's the Giants, who need to figure out who's going to run the ball this year.

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Four Downs: AFC West

Fri, 12 May 2017 13:46:02 -0400

The Raiders, Chargers, and Chiefs all need help in the middle of their defense. As for the Broncos, they need help right smack dab in the middle of their offense.

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SITE NEWS: FO Seeks New Technical Director

Thu, 11 May 2017 14:25:23 -0400

Football Outsiders is seeking a new Technical Director to help complete a long-awaited upgrade to Drupal 8 and then maintain our site afterwards. (Click to read more.)

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Four Downs: AFC South

Thu, 11 May 2017 12:31:06 -0400

Even after the draft, NFL rosters are left with significant holes. In most divisions, though, the draft tells us what each team's game plan is. The AFC South is not like most divisions.

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NFL Names Alberto Riveron Head of Officiating

Wed, 10 May 2017 11:42:09 -0400

I wish I could tell you I had some kind of insightful, complicated analysis of this move, but I don't. Alberto Riveron will move from the field to the head office to replace Dean Blandino, at least partially. The league also has announced Russell Yurk will head up the league’s replay department, so he's the guy who will be in charge of the central decision-making on replay every Sunday.




Four Downs: AFC North

Tue, 09 May 2017 14:21:01 -0400

While the division champs in Pittsburgh need help in the secondary, contenders in Baltimore and Cincinnati need more talent on offense. The Browns? They need the patience to deal with some growing pains.

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Four Downs: AFC East

Mon, 08 May 2017 12:00:20 -0400

With the draft in the rearview mirror, what's the biggest hole remaining for each NFL team? All four teams in the AFC East need help on offense -- yes, even the reigning Super Bowl champs.

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The Month In Quotes: April 2017

Fri, 05 May 2017 13:14:55 -0400

As you may have heard, the NFL draft took place last month. And nobody made more noise draft weekend than the Cleveland Browns -- and their spirited new players.

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