Matt, you obviously know that there is always room...
Matt, you obviously know that there is always room for more. I used to be in the UNIX biz, and I know just a little about open source, but its still marketing. Its still about serving the particular needs of your niche. All of these players, by concentrating on the needs of their customer/market base, will be able to stake out a space for themselves. And they will keep that space for as long as they are responsive to their customers.
I don't think that any one company can succeed in ...
I don't think that any one company can succeed in bringing commoditization to an industry; market pressure does that.
I certainly don't believe that "there can be only one" winner in a market, either. Generally, there are some top players, one of whom may have sustained advantage for a while, or an age, but over time, the one with the largest market share fluctuates.
And within an industry, there are also a larger group of innovative players poking at those top players.
I'm not sure that we should be looking at Pentaho and Jaspersoft as open source players vs. proprietary players, but as innovators vs. established and slower-moving players.
Let us also not forget SpagoBI [making good inroads in Europe], or ignore Openi or the Bee Project, all of which are open source BI suites.
And just to round out the story, there's players in the various BI/DW component spaces:
1. ETL: Talend, KETTLE [now part of Pentaho], KETL [seems to be languishing a bit], Jetstream [one of the first, but "finished" in 2003], Enhydra Octopus, and some smaller projects as well.
2. Reporting: openReports and openRPT come to mind; the original open source reporting tool is, of course, JasperReports, and jFreeReports is now part of Pentaho.
3. OLAP has PALO, not just Mondrian [now part of Pentaho].
4. Data mining has R, and RATTLE, as well as Weka [now part of Pentaho]
5. Dashboards are represented by MavelIT Dash, among others.
Rather than try to guess who might "win" as the only one possible open source vendor in a given space, let's look at how JasperSoft and Pentaho are developing
- as companies,
- their communities,
- their product development strategies
- their market share
They're very different companies.