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Updated: 2015-04-06T03:41:52.653-07:00

 



Forex Money Management

2009-05-21T04:22:23.153-07:00

by Boris Schlossberg Put two rookie traders in front of the screen, provide them with your best high-probability set-up, and for good measure, have each one take the opposite side of the trade. More than likely, both will wind up losing money. However, if you take two pros and have them trade in the opposite direction of each other, quite frequently both traders will wind up making money - despite the seeming contradiction of the premise. What's the difference? What is the most important factor separating the seasoned traders from the amateurs? The answer is money management. Like dieting and working out, money management is something that most traders pay lip service to, but few practice in real life. The reason is simple: just like eating healthy and staying fit, money management can seem like a burdensome, unpleasant activity. It forces traders to constantly monitor their positions and to take necessary losses, and few people like to do that. However, as Figure 1 proves, loss-taking is crucial to long-term trading success. Amount of Equity Lost Amount of Return Necessary to Restore to Original Equity Value 25% 33% 50% 100% 75% 400% 90% 1000% Figure 1 - This table shows just how difficult it is to recover from a debilitating loss. Note that a trader would have to earn 100% on his or her capital - a feat accomplished by less than 1% of traders worldwide - just to break even on an account with a 50% loss. At 75% drawdown, the trader must quadruple his or her account just to bring it back to its original equity - truly a Herculean task! The Big One Although most traders are familiar with the figures above, they are inevitably ignored. Trading books are littered with stories of traders losing one, two, even five years' worth of profits in a single trade gone terribly wrong. Typically, the runaway loss is a result of sloppy money management, with no hard stops and lots of average downs into the longs and average ups into the shorts. Above all, the runaway loss is due simply to a loss of discipline. Most traders begin their trading career, whether consciously or subconsciously, visualizing "The Big One" - the one trade that will make them millions and allow them to retire young and live carefree for the rest of their lives. In FX, this fantasy is further reinforced by the folklore of the markets. Who can forget the time that George Soros "broke the Bank of England" by shorting the pound and walked away with a cool $1-billion profit in a single day? But the cold hard truth for most retail traders is that, instead of experiencing the "Big Win", most traders fall victim to just one "Big Loss" that can knock them out of the game forever. Learning Tough Lessons Traders can avoid this fate by controlling their risks through stop losses. In Jack Schwager's famous book "Market Wizards" (1989), day trader and trend follower Larry Hite offers this practical advice: "Never risk more than 1% of total equity on any trade. By only risking 1%, I am indifferent to any individual trade." This is a very good approach. A trader can be wrong 20 times in a row and still have 80% of his or her equity left. The reality is that very few traders have the discipline to practice this method consistently. Not unlike a child who learns not to touch a hot stove only after being burned once or twice, most traders can only absorb the lessons of risk discipline through the harsh experience of monetary loss. This is the most important reason why traders should use only their speculative capital when first entering the forex market. When novices ask how much money they should begin trading with, one seasoned trader says: "Choose a number that will not materially impact your life if you were to lose it completely. Now subdivide that number by five because your first few attempts at trading will most likely end up in blow out." This too is very sage advice, and it is well worth following for anyone considering trading FX. Money Management Styles Generally speaking, there are two ways to practice successful money management. A trader can ta[...]



An Analysis of Secular Bear Markets and Secular Bull Markets since 1900

2009-05-20T20:08:56.049-07:00

From a historical perspective since 1900 there have been 3 Secular Bull Markets and 3 Secular Bear Markets as shown by the tables below of the Dow and S&P 500. As you can see during a Secular Bull Market the Average Annual Return (highlighted in red) is considerably higher than during a Secular Bear Market (highlighted in blue). Thus the long term Buy and Hold strategy that worked well in the 1980’s and 1990’s for investors may have not worked very well during the Secular Bear Markets of 1906-1921, 1929-1949 and 1966-1982.

Secular Bear Markets vs Secular Bull Markets and Dow Performance

(image)

The big question is now are we in the beginning stages of a 4th Secular Bear Mark

et which started in 2000. The average length of the previous 3 Secular Bear Markets was 18 years with a minimum of 16 years and a maximum of 21 years. Thus if you add 18 years to the year 2000 and take + or - 3 years on either side then the next Secular Bull Market may not begin until sometime in the 2015 to 2021 time period if we are now entering a 4th Secular Bear Market. However I would like to point out that even in a Secular Bear Market there can still be Bull Markets lasting a year or two as the longer term charts of the Dow show below.

Notice after the Secular Bull Market of 1922-1928 which was followed by a Secular Bear Market from 1929-1949 that the Dow still had impressive gains during the early to mid 1930s (points A to B) before going through another Bear Cycle prior too and during World War II (points B to C). This was then followed by another Bull Cycle from 1943-1946 (points C to D). However from the early part of 1937 (point B) until the end of 1949 (point E) the Dow virtually had a net gain of 0% as its basic overall pattern was a series of up and down movements which pretty much cancelled each other out.

(image)

Meanwhile after the Secular Bull Market from 1950-1965 the Dow once again went through another Secular Bear Market from 1966-1982. Notice after the Dow peaked in early 1966 (point F) that it had a lot of upward and downward movements from 1966 through 1982 but it basically went nowhere and actually was lower at the end of 1982 (point G) versus its peak in early 1966 (point F).

(image)

Looking at the current chart of the Dow shows that it has been exhibiting a choppy pattern similar to previous Secular Bear Market environments after experiencing a Secular Bull Market from 1983-1999. One has to wonder during the next 10 years or so whether the Dow will continue to exhibit a similar pattern that occurred from the mid 1960’s through the 1970’s in which it had a lot of downward and upward moves but the overall net gain was negligible.

(image)

Even if we go through another Secular Bear Market over the next several years there will still be plenty of smaller Bull Markets and if taken advantage of properly will still lead to some excellent investment opportunities in the future.

Source: http://www.forex-articles.net/article-66.html




Forex Trading- The Most Successful Forex Strategies

2009-05-20T20:18:56.031-07:00

You want to catch the serious profit in forex dealing you need to trend watch forex trends which are worse term. here we are going to give you a 3 step simple method which if you use it correctly, will help you catch every superior forex trend and lead you to long-term term currency dealing success.Most beginner traders don't bother trying to trend following forex lengthier term - instead they try forex scalping or day trading. These methods focus the trader on small moves and they hope to catch small profit however as most short term moves are random, this leads to equity eliminate.The other alternatives are swing trading and long term forex trend following and this article is all about the latter method. If you look at any forex chart, you will see long-term term trends that last for months or years. These moves can and do yield serious profit - present we will outline a simple method to get them.BreakoutsBy far the best way of catching the serious moves is to use a forex dealing strategy based around breakouts. A breakout is simply a move on a forex chart where a new high or low is made and resistance or support is broken.It's a fact that most leading moves start from new highs or lows.While it might appear that you are not buying or selling at the greatest level, you are in terms of the odds of the trend continuing. Most forex traders make the mistake of waiting for the breakout to come back and get in at a better price but these traders never get on board. The grounds for this is if a breakout occurs, then you have a new strong trend and a pullback is not very likely to occur.Most traders don't buy or sell breakouts and that's exactly why it's such a powerful method.The only point to keep in mind is a support or resistance which is ruined, should be valid and that means at least 3 points in at least 2 different times frames. The more tests and the greater the spacing between the tests the more valid the level is.ConfirmationOf course not every breakout keeps and some reverse, these are false and can cause losses. You therefore need to confirm each move. All you need to do to achieve this is to put a few momentum indicators in your forex trading system to confirm your dealing signal.These indicators give you an estimation of the strength and velocity of price and there are many to choose from. We don't have time to discuss them here (simply look up our other articles) but two of the greatest are - the stochastic and Relative Strength Index RSIStops and TargetsStop points are easy with breakouts - Simply behind the breakout point.If you have a serious trend then you need to be careful you can milk it, so don't move your stop to soon and keep it outside of normal volatility. If it is a huge move, trailing stops should be held a long-term way back and the 40 day moving average is a good level to use.You have to keep in mind that when the trend does eventually turn you are going to give some profit back. You don't know when the trend is going to end, so don't predict.It's ok to give a serious back, as that's the nature of trading forex. Keep in mind if you got 50% of all leading trend you would be very rich. When you are long-term term trend following you have accept giving a bit back and taking dips in open equity as the trend develops - this is noise and does not affect the long term trend.The above is a simple way to trend watch forex and catch the high odds moves that yield the serious profit. If you are learning forex dealing and want a simple method that is robust and will help you get every major move, then you should base your dealing on the above method.Now that you have all the winning strategies, you now need to have a winning broker, recently the CFD FX Report has reviewed these brokers and have come up with Best Forex Broker to find out this visit the website. Visit today and see why all the experts traders are using this site.Source: http://www.forexarticlecollection.com/trading-strategy/forex-trading-the-most-successful-forex-strategies.html[...]



Forex Market Snapshot

2008-09-24T21:54:29.029-07:00

Forex Market Snapshot Introduction The following facts and figures relate to the foreign exchange market. Much of the information is drawn from the 2007 Triennial Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity conducted by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) in April 2007. 54 central banks and monetary authorities participated in the survey, collecting information from approximately 1280 market participants. Excerpt from the BIS: "The 2007 survey shows an unprecedented rise in activity in traditional foreign exchange markets compared to 2004. Average daily turnover rose to $3.2 trillion in April 2007, an increase of 71% at current exchange rates and 65% at constant exchange rates...Against the background of low levels of financial market volatility and risk aversion, market participants point to a significant expansion in the activity of investor groups including hedge funds, which was partly facilitated by substantial growth in the use of prime brokerage, and retail investors...A marked increase in the levels of technical trading – most notably algorithmic trading – is also likely to have boosted turnover in the spot market...Transactions between reporting dealers and non-reporting financial institutions, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds and insurance companies, more than doubled between April 2004 and April 2007 and contributed more than half of the increase in aggregate turnover." - BIS Structure Decentralised 'interbank' market Main participants: Central Banks, commercial and investment banks, hedge funds, corporations & private speculators The free-floating currency system began in the early 1970's and was officially ratified in 1978 Online trading began in the mid to late 1990's Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007 Trading Hours 24 hour market Sunday 5pm EST through Friday 4pm EST. Trading begins in New Zealand, followed by Australia, Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and America Size One of the largest financial markets in the world $3.2 trillion average daily turnover, equivalent to: More than 10 times the average daily turnover of global equity markets1 More than 35 times the average daily turnover of the NYSE2 Nearly $500 a day for every man, woman, and child on earth3 An annual turnover more than 10 times world GDP4The spot market accounts for just under one-third of daily turnover 1. About $280 billion - World Federation of Exchanges aggregate 20062. About $87 billion - World Federation of Exchanges 20063. Based on world population of 6.6 billion - US Census Bureau4. About $48 trillion - World Bank 2006. Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007 Major Markets The US & UK markets account for just over 50% of turnover Major markets: London, New York, Tokyo Trading activity is heaviest when major markets overlap5 Nearly two-thirds of NY activity occurs in the morning hours while European markets are open6 5. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve6. The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States - NY Federal Reserve Average Daily Turnover by Geographic Location Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007 Concentration in the Banking Industry 12 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.K. 10 banks account for 75% of turnover in the U.S. 3 banks account for 75% of turnover in Switzerland 9 banks account for 75% of turnover in Japan Source: BIS Triennial Survey 2007 Technical AnalysisCommonly used technical indicators:Moving averages RSI Fibonacci retracements Stochastics MACD Momentum Bollinger bands Pivot point Elliott Wave Currencies The US dollar is involved in over 80% of all foreign exchange transactions, equivalent to over US$2.7 trillion per day Currency Codes USD = US Dollar EUR = Euro JPY = Japanese Yen GBP = British Pound CHF = Swiss Franc CAD = Canadian Dollar AUD = Australian Dollar NZD = New Zealand Dollar Average Daily Turnover by Currency N.B. Because two currencies are involved in each transaction, the sum of the perc[...]



5 Steps – How To Begin Forex Trading On The Online Account

2008-02-07T04:56:56.587-08:00

5 Steps – How To Begin Forex Trading On The Online AccountForex stands for Foreign Exchange Market (FX). It is the largest market for currency trading – that covers the whole world. A lot of information about Forex trading is available today. Analytics, news, trading strategies, trading signals, auto-trading systems and much, much more. This information is very complicated so novices usually get frustrated because of information overload.And usually the most asked questions are: What to start from? Whom to listen to? Is it really so complicated to day-trade FOREX online? I’m not going to answer all of these questions right now – not in this short article. I want to summarize the knowledge and write some useful tips for novices to help them understand the whole thing and finally get ahead in this online Forex trading business.So what exactly should you do as an aspired forex starter? Here is an exact plan for you:1. Set a deadline – five or seven days (free days I mean). During these days try to absorb as much information about Forex Trading as possible. Use Google and your imagination to search. You can start from “forex”, “currency trading”, “forex trading” etc. After this period stop consuming information. At all. Just sit down and try to summarize it. The pen and the piece of paper will be truly useful for this.2. Choose your first forex online broker. Don’t make things too complex and complicated – you just need to get started. Don’t start with huge online forex trading deposits, I recommend to start your forex trading from mini-forex online account or even forex demo account if you don’t have a few hundred dollars to open mini.3. Pick your primary online forex trading currency pair and stick to it for at least three-four weeks. Get used to this currency. I recommend eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd and cad/usd but that’s not of vital importance, pick the forex currency pair what you like the most.4. Choose your online forex trading strategy – and use it for three-four weeks no matter what happens on the forex market. Then decide, if this forex trading system is worth using or not. This step looks very complicated for the majority of forex starters, but it isn’t really so hard to choose online forex trading strategy. I’ll cover this topic in more detail later. For now – just choose what’s simple and free. Believe me, you don’t have to re-invent the wheel.5. Manage the online forex trading risks. Use forex stop-loss orders to control your potential loss. Don’t risk more than 10% of your deposit in one deal if your deposit is less that $10 000 (and it should be less – remember what I said earlier about mini-forex).If you make these steps, you will finally move ahead in your online forex trading, so I recommend you to begin right now. Remember – your success depends on your knowledge, skills and ability to make the right decisions at the right time. I hope you will! By: Cas Jones Article Directory: http://www.articledashboard.com P.S. I recommend you to try out this Online Forex Broker Trading Platform + FREE Forex Ebook . You won't need to download the software, Account can be opened As Fast As 5 Minutes. Trade USD vs. All Major Currencies and Start for As Little As $100. Leverage Up to 200:1 is available for You. Also You can Comfortably use Your Credit Card to deposit funds. So Open Forex Trading Account and Enjoy the Trading Right Now!Source: http://www.articledashboard.com/Article/5-Steps---How-to-Begin-Forex-Trading-on-the-Online-Account/425357[...]



FOREX-Euro softer, focuses on ECB and Trichet

2008-02-07T04:48:29.793-08:00

FOREX-Euro softer, focuses on ECB and Trichet

Thu Feb 7, 2008 3:52am EST

By Ian Chua

LONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The euro was struggling to make any headway on Thursday ahead of the outcome of the European Central Bank's policy meeting with some investors betting the inflation-fighting central bank might soften its hawkish stance.

While markets expect no imminent changes to interest rates, the euro had been under pressure this week after surprisingly weak euro zone service sector data on Tuesday fuelled expectations the ECB might have to bring forward any rate cuts to shore up growth.

"The euro has been a little bit weak in the past couple of days and probably the market is looking for the ECB to tone down a little bit its hawkishness, but we don't think this will happen at this meeting," said Marcus Hettinger, global FX strategist at Credit Suisse.

The single European currency had also been hit by weaker equity markets this week. "Today, some European markets are in negative territory, so that is bringing a little downside for the euro," he added.

The FTSEurofirst 300 share index lost half a percent in early trading, hurt by bad news from the tech sector.

At 0825, the euro was a touch softer against the dollar at $1.4614 on the day, holding near a two-week low of around $1.4590 touched a day earlier. Versus the Japanese currency, the euro was also slightly weaker at 155.78 yen .

Against a basket of major currencies, the dollar edged up 0.1 percent to 76.225 .DXY.

In contrast to the United States, Canada and Britain, the ECB has not yet gone down the path of cutting interest rates because of price pressures in the 15 countries using the euro. In January, euro zone inflation hit a record high.

But recent signs of faltering growth in Spain, Italy and elsewhere in the bloc are expected to weigh on the ECB Governing Council at this morning's meeting. For investors, the main focus will be on what ECB's President Jean-Claude Trichet says at a news conference at 1330 GMT, following the rate decision at 1245 GMT. The ECB is widely seen holding rates steady at 4 percent.

"Our focus will be on whether Trichet concedes that the outlook for slower global growth will reduce upside CPI risks and/or if he states that the Council considered all options, including an easing, which would shift the bias toward neutral," said analysts at Calyon.

"The latter in particular would hint at a rate cut before the June move, which we currently forecast, and prompt a sell off in EUR/USD," they said in a report

Should Trichet stick to the hawkish script, the euro will likely benefit, but given expectations that the ECB will eventually have to lower rates, any boost to the currency should prove short lived, Calyon added. The Bank of England (BoE) will also be holding its policy-setting meeting on Thursday and is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25 percent to head off a sharp consumer-led slowdown.

Sterling, which has fallen in recent sessions, slipped 0.2 percent to $1.9566 ahead of the BoE decision due at 1200 GMT.


Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/usDollarRpt/idUSL0724752320080207?pageNumber=2&virtualBrandChannel=0




Daily Forex Overview

2008-02-07T04:46:02.576-08:00

Daily Forex Overview

Thu, Feb 7 2008, 08:59 GMT
by Raivis Zile

Dukascopy Swiss FX Group


Previous session overview

On Wednesday, the dollar jumped within a narrow range from losses to gains against the euro as equities fluctuated with risk appetite.

Markets expect the ECB to keep rates steady at 4.0%, with Trichet acknowledging some downside risk but still focused on the bank's single mandate to control prices and the pressure it faces from high inflation.

Yesterday's US ISM non-manufacturing report was a shocker, collapsing from 53.2 to 44.6 in January.

The Euro weakened against the dollar today as a stronger than expected productivity report was released. There are signs of an economic slowdown, after yesterday's euro zone retail report showed a -0.1 decline despite Christmas spending.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the dollar. Asian stocks posted their biggest loss in two weeks, with worries about the health of the global economy.

The British pound fell briefly to 1.9554 in European morning and later briefly bounced to 1.9636 ahead of the interest rate decision from the Bank of England, which is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% from 5.50%.

The Australian dollar continued to weaken Thursday, as yet more negative credit headlines on Wall Street spooked investors, sending higher yielding currencies lower. The Australian and New Zealand dollar weakened against the dollar as investors unwound their carry trades after the MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares fell.


Market expectation

Today EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks: as usual, the main event of the day; we have to pay attention to comments regarding inflation and growth: If Trichet implies that (the ECB) may change its hawkish stance, investors will likely sell the euro.

EUR/USD is right now at 1.4610 bearish in daily and 4 hours charts, yet the pair will have to break the key Fibonacci level mentioned yesterday, 1.4589, 61.8% of the 1.4365/1.4950 rally, to continue in that direction.

GBP/USD is quoting at 1.9603, tending bearish despite also rebounding around the Fibonacci level mentioned yesterday, 1.9575 61.8% Fibonacci rally 1.9337/1.9957, as the pair was unable to confirm under that point.

USD/JPY is quoting at 106.33 and despite the range the pair is into, bigger charts are tending lower.

This Saturday, the Group of Seven (G7) will meet in Tokyo to discuss high oil prices, the economic outlook.

With dollar appreciating on risk aversion (American stocks continue going down while gold return to the 900 level) and US data continues weak, today could be a definition day for the American currency.

Today we will see the release of Japan's machine tools, U.K. industrial and manufacturing production, German factory orders and U.S. pending home sales.


Source: http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/market-view/daily-forex-overview/2008-02-07.html




Forex: Dollar Mixed

2006-09-12T05:31:33.186-07:00

DJ Midday Forex: Dollar Mixed, Cross Flows Favor Euro
LONDON (Dow Jones)--The dollar is mixed against other major currencies midday Monday in Europe, with cross-related flows favoring the euro and trimming recent yen gains.
The euro is making steady progress above $1.27 in what traders describe as a cautious market, as Monday marks the fifth anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

The yen slipped in Tokyo after Japanese July machinery orders fell an unexpectedly large 16.7%, against an expected decline of 5.3%. The Japanese unit weakened above Y149.00 by midday in Europe, up over 100 sen on the day, while dollar/yen climbed back above $117.00. Sterling came under pressure after subdued producer price index data eased inflation worries and chipped away at the pound's interest rate prop that has supported the unit of late.

U.K. August Output PPI was flat on the month against the Dow Jones Newswires forecast of a 0.2% increase, while input PPI fell 1.2% on the month, the largest monthly fall since December 2004.

Euro/sterling rose to a fresh three-week high of 0.6817 shortly after the data, while cable gave back early gains to trade around the day's lows of $1.8650.

However, despite the overall weaker start for the dollar many technical analysts are expecting the U.S. unit to strengthen in the sessions ahead, with the exception of dollar/yen.

BNP Paribas expects the latter to be kept under pressure as Asian currency flexibility is likely to be addressed as this weekend's Group of Seven meeting in Singapore. The bank has targets of Y114.05 for dollar/yen and Y147.30 for the euro/yen cross.

As for euro/dollar, the bank says the breach of trendline support at 1.2695 seen Friday favors the downside and it would sell upticks to $1.2730 with a stop at $1.2780, targeting $1.2570.

By 1000 GMT, the dollar was at Y117.23, up from Y116.93 late Friday in New York, according to EBS. The euro was at $1.2725, up from $1.2672, and at Y149.05, up from Y148.20. The dollar was trading at CHF1.2400 from CHF1.2475, while sterling was fetching $1.8665 versus $1.8652.

With no major U.S. data scheduled for release Monday, dealers are focusing on a news conference featuring European Central Bank President Jean Claude Trichet at the regular bi-monthly Group of 10 meeting, at around 1100 GMT.

The U.S. session offers speeches from Federal Reserve members Cathy Minehan (1200 GMT), Donald Kohn (1515 GMT) and William Poole (1630 GMT).



Forex Trading guide

2006-09-12T05:30:45.976-07:00

Currency Trading guide

By Mansi Gupta

Currency trading or forex (foreign exchange) as the name suggests refers to the act of exchanging the legal tender of one country for another. "In finance the exchange rate between two currencies specifies how much one currency is worth in terms of the other". For instance an exchange of 200 Japanese yen to dollar indicate that 120 yen is worth the same as 1USD. Exchange rate is also called as foreign currency rate.


Currency trading is a very ancient phenomenon. Its existence can be traced back to time before money and Internet were discovered. The custom of currency trading began with the bartering system i.e. our ancestors commenced trading of goods against other goods. This bartering system was quite incompetent and needed lot of negotiation and investigation to be able to strike a deal. In the years that followed the important metals such gold, silver and bronze were standardized and graded to make easy the exchange of merchandise. The grounds for these mediums of exchange were acceptance by the general public and realistic variables such as durability and storage. As the middle age came, a variety of paper exchange started taking place and that became quite popular as an exchange medium.


Time passed by and the simple bartering system evolved into a complex and huge industry of foreign or currency exchange. Though with the use of money and banks the system developed to a large extent but it is still developing with the aid of Internet.


Currency exchange is not a simple task. It requires enormous time, market knowledge, ability to study the current market and predict its future course and also immense self-control. But the currency exchange market is extremely volatile and fast. There is no guarantee either of profit or of loss. To be successful in this market a trader has to take into consideration technical and fundamental data and make an informed decision on behalf of his observation of forex futures trading market sentiment and market expectations. Proper planning in timing a trade correctly is perhaps the most crucial factor in successful currency trading. However yet there are times when a trader misses the mark i.e. when his timing will be off.


Besides timing factor being rightly handled, patience of a trader is also quite essential. Perseverance is one of the essential characteristics of a trader. He or she might not be academically qualified enough but must have the potential to stand for a good time in the market. It is only after spending a good amount of time that you understand the intricacies of the market and start accruing some gains.


You should not hesitate to take the help of an experienced trader whom you know and trust. It is very difficult to survive in this currency trade market without the help of qualified professionals. So in the beginning it is better for any naïve trader to take the help of professionals.


If you are not incurring gains for a long time and do not hope that in near future, stop for sometime. This will give you mental peace and entitles you to get out at certain points on trade.


At the end of the day don't forget that in the market of currency exchange, experience is the biggest teacher of all.


About the Author
Mansi gupta recommends you visit http://www.forexreader.com/trading/index.html for more information on Currency Trading.

Article Source: http://articles.simplysearch4it.com/article/30901.html



FOREX: Ringgit Lower Against US Dollar

2006-09-06T10:45:08.160-07:00

September 06, 2006

FOREX: Ringgit Lower Against US Dollar

KUALA LUMPUR, Sept 6 (Bernama) -- The ringgit ended lower against the US dollar Wednesday as the greenback regained strength in overseas markets ahead of the release of key US data that will provide direction for the country's economy, analysts said.

Market players were awaiting the data from the Institute for Supply Management's survey on services sector for August and the release of Federal Reserve's Beige Book, they said.

Analysts said the market was relatively quiet as players decided to "wait and see the outcome."

At 5 pm, the ringgit fell to 3.6475/6525 against the greenback from 3.6400/6450 posted Tuesday.

The ringgit was lower against the Singapore dollar at 2.3265/3312 from 2.3249/3279 Tuesday. It was higher against the yen at 3.1328/1376 from 3.1469/1518 previously.

Against the British pound, the local currency strengthened to 6.8920/9036 from 6.9117/9208. It was weaker against the euro at 4.6757/6825 from 4.6747/6813.



Forex news:US dollar mixed

2006-09-06T10:42:43.806-07:00

AFX News Limited
Forex - US dollar mixed Sydney morning amid concerns of slowing EU growth
09.05.2006, 10:34 PM




SYDNEY (XFN-ASIA) - The US dollar was trading mixed against major currencies, rising against the euro on concerns about slowing growth in Europe but weaker against the yen, dealers said.

They said the yen is maintaining its strength ahead of the Bank of Japan possibly providing views on inflation on Friday.

At 11.15 am, Sydney (0015 GMT) the US dollar was trading up 1.2819 eur from 1.2812 in late New York trade while the yen was at 116.37 usd from 115.93.

Traders said the market has been largely focusing on what will come next with eurozone and US interest rates.

National Australia Bank currency strategists said higher eurozone rates will tend to bolster the single currency by making certain types of investments more attractive.

Meanwhile, they noted that while the US Federal Reserve paused its two year rate-raising cycle in August the European Central Bank last week appeared to indicate it will raise eurozone rates at its next meeting after leaving them unchanged this month.

'The hurdle for the euro is that a few further ECB rate hikes are already priced in and the speculative community is very long the currency,' the NAB strategists said.

'That's why we remain reluctant to target eur/usd above 1.3000 eur in the absence of say forecasting a hard landing in US growth.'

They noted that overnight St. Louis Fed President William Poole, a non-voting Fed member, played down the risk of a hard landing in the US, led by housing.

'We might have some weakness in certain sections of the country, but I think we're just not going to have a housing crash that's nationwide,' Poole said.



Sydney 11.15 am (0015 GMT)

US dollar

yen 116.37

sfr 1.2340

Euro

usd 1.2819

stg 0.6767

yen 148.89

sfr 1.5816

Sterling

usd 1.8944

yen 220.05

sfr 2.3370

Australian dollar

usd 0.7707

stg 0.4068

yen 89.535

New Zealand dollar

usd 0.6479




2006-07-14T06:50:23.933-07:00

AFX News Limited
Forex - Dollar firms in late Asia trade;yen surrenders brief gains from BoJ hike
07.14.2006, 05:13 AM


SINGAPORE (XFN-ASIA) - The US dollar was broadly firmer in late Asian trade as the Bank of Japan's widely expected decision to raise interest rates provided no lasting support for the yen, aside from a brief spike after the news was announced.

The dollar eased below Y115.50 straight after the central bank announced its decision to hike rates for the first time in almost six years, from Y115.71 before the verdict was out.

It subsequently recovered to around Y115.85 and was carried through Y116.00 in late dealings.

In a unanimous vote, the BOJ's nine policy board members voted to end its zero rate policy and raise the target for the overnight call rate to 'around 0.25%,' and to raise the official discount rate, the upper limit on overnight rates that commercial banks charge each other, to 0.4% from 0.1%.

But the central bank said that it will keep interest rates at 'very low' levels for the time being, implying that it would not rush the second increase.

'There was little in today's BOJ decision to change market expectations on the BOJ rate outlook,' UBS AG said in a daily note.

The yen remained heavy even after the BOJ later upgraded its view of the economy in its monthly report for July, saying the economy is 'expanding moderately' instead of the previous 'recovering steadily.'

FX dealers noted that the yen had already been under pressure before the BOJ announcement, as jitters over geopolitical risks and high oil prices battered sentiment and sparked demand for safe-haven instruments. Players were also wary about taking new yen positions because of Monday's holiday in Japan.

'The implications are that monetary policy is not directing the yen at the moment,' UBS said. 'The bias recently has been for the yen to weaken, and there is no clear catalyst of a much stronger yen for now.'

Looking ahead, dealers said the dollar-yen will continue to be supported from around Y115.00 while on the topsidethe pair may face some difficulty clearing Y116.70/80.

Singapore 3.50 pm (0750 GMT)Sydney 10.01 am (0001 GMT)

US dollar

yen 115.86 up from 115.42

sfr 1.2329 up from 1.2293

Euro

usd 1.2665 down from 1.2692

stg 0.6887 up from 0.6886

yen 146.79 up from 146.49

sfr 1.5620 up from 1.5602

Sterling

usd 1.8380 down from 1.8435

yen 213.02 up from 212.79

sfr 2.2668 up from 2.2666

Australian dollar

usd 0.7495 down from 0.7531

stg 0.4077 down from 0.4085

yen 86.890 down from 86.905

singapore@xfn.com

bur/mb

Source:http://www.forbes.com/markets/feeds/afx/2006/07/14/afx2878768.html



FOREX-Dollar tumbles hit by views on G7, rates, Iran

2006-04-30T10:35:34.346-07:00

FOREX-Dollar tumbles hit by views on G7, rates, Iran
Fri Apr 28, 2006 7:50 PM BST

(Updates with fresh prices, quotes, changes bline)

By Jamie McGeever

NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - The dollar slumped to an 11-month low against the euro on Friday, as selling continued after Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke said on Thursday that the Fed may soon pause in its 21-month campaing to raise interest rates.

Interest rate differentials between the U.S. on the one hand and Europe and Japan on the other have helped to support the U.S. dollar in the past year, but with that prop seen being removed the market was now focusing on factors bearish for the greenback, analysts said.

After last week's meeting of finance ministers from Group of Seven countries some officials have said that currency markets have misinterpreted the G7 statement as a call for a decline in the dollar, but U.S. Treasury Secretary Snow on Friday said the statement, which called for currency appreciation in China and emerging markets in Asia, spoke for itself.

"At another time, Snow's (non) comments might have been more innocuous," said Sophia Drossos, senior currency strategist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

"But in the current environment, where the market perceives the Fed to be nearing an end, they seemed to sanction the market's view that the G7 wants a weaker dollar."

The dollar's slide this week left it on track for its worst monthly performance against major currencies since September 2003, when the G7 finance ministers met in Dubai and called for increased "flexibility" in global currency markets

The dollar did not get much support from U.S. economic data on Friday either, after first quarter GDP data showed robust economic growth but softening inflationary pressures, consumer sentiment, and regional manufacturing activity.

Mid-afternoon in New York, the euro was up 0.8 percent on the day around $1.2625 , hovering near the 11-month high of $1.2635 reached earlier in the day.

Sterling was up 1.2 percent against the dollar at $1.8230 after touching a 7-month high of $1.8240, while the greenback was mired at a seven-month low against a basket of six major currencies <.DXY>, down 0.7 percent on the day

The dollar was down 0.3 percent against the yen at 113.73 yen, having hit a three-month low of 113.66 yen.

"The ongoing story remains bearish for the dollar," said Charmaine Buskas, FX analyst at Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pennsylvania.

For details on the first quarter gross domestic product data, see [ID:nN28265299]; for more on consumer confidence [ID:nNYJ000065] and more on the Chicago purchasing managers index [ID:nN28392548].

The data did little to uproot a near-consensus that the Fed will likely take a break after raising rates by a quarter percentage point in May, after 15 rate rises since June 2004.

"It looks increasingly like the Fed rate hike cycle is coming to an end, and that's been the focus," Buskas said. "... The market is just looking for an excuse to sell the dollar."

The Swiss franc was among the biggest winners against the dollar, shooting up 1.5 percent and supported by safe-haven flows as geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran's bid for a nuclear weapon escalated.

Most European markets are closed Monday for Labor Day, and Japanese financial markets will be closed for a part of next week for the Golden Week holiday.

(Additional reporting by Nick Olivari)

Source:reuters



FOREX-Dollar slips but shrugs off emerging market woes

2006-03-08T14:41:35.670-08:00

(Updates prices, adds quote)By Jamie McGeeverNEW YORK, March 8 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against major currencies on Wednesday, but held within tight ranges, consolidating the previous session's gains as traders awaited several potentially market-moving events later in the week.The Bank of Japan may scrap its easy-money policy on Thursday while U.S. trade data could show a further widening of the deficit. The U.S. employment report on Friday is expected to show strong job creation.Most of the foreign exchange market action on Wednesday was concentrated in emerging market currencies, many of which tumbled as concerns over rising global interest rates sparked moves out of higher-yielding, riskier assets."There's been a lot of volatility in emerging markets but in the majors, very little," said Robert Lynch, G10 currency strategist for the Americas at HSBC in New York."The dollar's off its highs, but in relative terms it's holding at fairly firm levels. I wouldn't call it offered," Lynch said.The dollar rallied strongly earlier this week amid growing expectations U.S. interest rates will continue to rise in the coming months.Ahead of events later in the week, dealers took advantage of a session devoid of U.S. economic data to trim positions and lock in some profits, dealers said.In late trading on Wednesday, the euro was up 0.3 percent on the day at $1.1922 , while sterling was up a touch at $1.7376 .The dollar was off 0.4 percent against the Swiss franc at 1.3082 francs and down a touch against the yen at 117.83 yen .BOJ IN FOCUSBut the dollar held relatively close to two-week highs against the Japanese currency touched on Tuesday. Traders were looking to the possible end of the BOJ's policy of quantitative easing, or flooding the monetary system with excess cash.Investors are divided about whether the central bank will scrap its five-year-old policy on Thursday or next month and, if so, what kind of policy target would follow.Markets see the BOJ raising rates to 0.25 percent or 0.5 percent by year-end from virtually zero currently, but do not expect much more than that, which would keep the yen among the lowest-yielding currencies in the world.The BOJ has held interest rates below 0.5 percent since 1995.Steve Barrow, head of global currency strategy at Bear Stearns, thinks the bias for the dollar against the yen is to the upside no matter what the BOJ does. But given the potential for market volatility, he advised caution."We are not going to take a position ahead of the BOJ. Our bias would be to be long of the dollar as we are not sold on the idea that the (BOJ) will do anything tonight given that the debate about an inflation target within the bank might not be fully resolved," Barrow wrote in a research note."Alternatively, if the BOJ does move, we suspect it will work hard to ensure that the market sees its actions as pretty benign. It might be a tough job as the market is very nervous about this one, but it might produce a temporary rally in dollar/yen," he added.On the U.S. data front, the latest snapshots of the U.S. trade deficit and pace of job creation are the big events.Economists polled by Reuters expect the January trade deficit to have widened to $66.5 billion, which would be the second biggest on record. They also expect a 210,000 rise in non-farm payrolls for February.Meanwhile, major currencies remained relatively immune to the fluctuations in emerging markets and commodities.The Brazilian real , Mexican peso , Hungarian forint , Turkish lira and spot gold all tumbled on Wednesday amid concerns of rising interest rates around the world.The New Zealand dollar halted its steep decline of late after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand kept rates on hold at 7.[...]



FOREX-Dollar rally stalled by yen as market takes breather

2006-02-07T22:04:21.113-08:00

By Veronica BrownLONDON, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped sharply after nearing a seven-week high against the yen on Tuesday, with the Japanese currency gaining on position adjustment, but fresh gains were seen for the greenback on a positive U.S. interest rate outlook.Analysts said that the dollar's interest rate-powered strength had given way temporarily to a buyback in the yen, but recent strong U.S. data and upbeat Federal Reserve comments would allow the U.S. currency to resume its rise."What we're seeing right now is the market take a bit of a breather. One thing we've seen in the past two days is yen weakness against the crosses and that probably has to do with the fact that the yen sell-off in the past week or so has been the sharper move," Barclays Capital currency strategist Adarsh Sinha said."Now we're seeing a pullback in yen weakness. But our view is that you will see further yen weakness ahead," he added.By 0903 GMT, the dollar was at 118.13 yen , down 0.78 percent on the day -- having hit a seven-week high of 119.39 on Friday.The euro was down half a percent at a one-week low of 141.72 yen , with traders citing sell-stops as the market approached 142.00. The euro gained slightly against the dollar to $1.1981 having earlier moved closer to Monday's one-month low of $1.1943.German industrial production data is due at 1100 GMT in an otherwise thin European calendar.Production is expected to have risen by 0.7 percent in December, after falling 0.3 percent in November.FED'S FISHER REASSURESDollar bulls had taken heart from Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, who said on Monday he fully expects the Fed to keep control of inflation, encouraging market views that there is more monetary tightening to come.His comments follow data last week showing upward revisions to job growth and a fall in the unemployment rate to a 4-1/2-year low, reinforcing the outlook for the Fed to keep lifting overnight rates after 14 straight rises to 4.5 percent."The market is starting to talk about 4.75 percent and the risk of the Fed perhaps moving to five and even beyond," Barclays' Sinha said.But some analysts said further gains for the dollar may be limited in the near term, with no major U.S. economic data until later in the week.European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said on Monday the bank was ready to raise interest rates again at any time to keep inflationary pressure in check, backing market expectations for a March rate hike to 2.5 percent. Foreign buying of U.S. Treasuries at this week's auctions totalling $48 billion should help the dollar, traders said. The first auction of three-year notes will be held later on Tuesday.Some said Japanese institutional investors may buy some of the revived 30-year bonds, helping the dollar climb further against the yen. Japan's Ministry of Finance sells only a limited amount of such longer-dated bonds.RATES TO DOMINATETraders and analysts said the market would next shift its attention to December data on U.S. trade, due on Friday.Some market players said the focus was unlikely to shift to the growing U.S. twin trade and budget deficits, as rising U.S. interest rates have helped the United States attract more than enough foreign capital to finance these shortfalls."Sentiment for the dollar is so strong at the moment that I don't think the market will start worrying about the deficits," said a trader at a Japanese bank.Median estimates by analysts point to a widening of the U.S. trade gap to $65 billion in December from November's $64.2 billion. Citibank expects the deficit to blow out to a record $68.5 billion due to a surge in imports.The United States' reliance on foreign capital has been exacerb[...]




2006-01-17T12:12:38.523-08:00

FOREX-Dollar advances with US capacity use at 5-yr highBy Kevin PlumbergNEW YORK, Jan 17 (Reuters) - The dollar climbed on Tuesday, after a report showed U.S. industrial capacity use running at its highest rate in five years, bolstering the case for further Federal Reserve interest rate increases.Some investors were forced to cover their bets against the U.S. currency after data showed activity at factories, utilities and mines were running at 80.7 percent of full capacity in December from 80.3 percent in November, indicating slack in the economy is narrowing and potential inflation pressures increasing."That's something that the Fed has signaled it is looking at right now with resources getting stretched in the economy," said Jay Bryson, global economist with Wachovia Corp in Charlotte, North Carolina."So all things being equal, this is another reason for the Fed to keep tightening. All that is consistent with a stronger dollar," he said.The euro slipped 0.4 percent from late Monday to $1.2064 . However, it has remained in a narrow range of around $1.2000 to $1.2180 for the past two weeks.The dollar was up around 0.9 percent to 115.87 yen after initially failing to hurdle the psychologically important 116 yen.The euro jumped 0.5 percent to 139.92 yen after triggering a layer of automatic buy euros orders around 139.50 yen, traders said.A sell-off in Japanese equities during the Tokyo trading day and higher oil prices contributed to yen weakness, traders said.The Nikkei share average lost 2.8 percent, its largest single-day decline since April 2005, while the Mothers index for start-up companies fell almost 12 percent after prosecutors raided a well-known Internet firm on Monday.BOTTLENECKS AND RATESThe capacity utilization data suggests the Fed may have to extend its 18-month interest rate raising campaign that has so far taken rates to 4.25 percent, economists said.The prospect for higher U.S. rates relative to other large, industrialized economies boosted the dollar last year, partly because it heightened the allure of dollar-denominated deposits."Historically, capacity utilization over the 81 level could bring some production bottlenecks into play throughout the economy which could put upward pressure on prices," said Ron Simpson, managing director of global currency analysis with Action Economics in Dobbs Ferry, New York.U.S. interest rates still offer a better return compared with 2.25 percent in the euro zone and virtually zero in Japan.Sterling was down a third of a percent against the dollar at $1.7625 after briefly dipping below $1.76, sliding on data that showed UK consumer price inflation falling back to the Bank of England's 2.0 percent target in December.While the figures matched economists' forecasts, traders said on-target inflation left open the door to a UK interest rate cut this year.Earlier in the session, a report from the New York Fed showed regional U.S. manufacturing growth slowed slightly in January but only due to a pullback in inventories. The employment and average work week components both jumped, suggesting inflationary pressures continue to build.The Fed is widely expected to raise rates for the 14th consecutive time on Jan. 31 but the central bank has said the future path of monetary policy will depend on incoming economic data.Wednesday's December core inflation data, which is expected to match November's 0.2 percent increase, will undoubtedly draw attention for its impact on expectations for where U.S. interest rates are headed. (Additional reporting by John Parry)[...]



Forex - US dollar mixed in Sydney morning

2006-01-08T22:14:49.000-08:00

Forex - US dollar mixed in Sydney morning, payrolls point to end of rate hikes01.08.2006, 06:57 PMSYDNEY (AFX) - The US dollar was trading mixed against the major currency pairs, while selling pressure continued after key payrolls data increased expectations US rate hikes are nearing an end, dealers said. They said the US dollar was sold heavily in overnight trading on Friday as the December non-farm payrolls data was well below the market consensus. However, upward revisions to November's data limited part of the selling. 'Sentiment towards the US dollar remains very negative after Friday's non-farm payrolls report served to maintain expectations that a peak in US official interest rates is near,' National Australia Bank currency strategists said in a market note. 'This dynamic has been driving the US dollar lower at the start of a new year as the speculative community starts to build a net short position,' they said.At 10:26 am in Sydney (2326 GMT) the euro was firmer at 1.2146 usd from 1.2145 in late New York trading on Friday while the dollar was higher at 114.52 yen from 114.40. Commonwealth Bank market economists said, in a market note, the euro rose to 1.2174 usd from 1.2082 in New York trading following the US payrolls data, while US dollar/yen slumped to a low of 114.22 yen from 116.28. The US non-farm payrolls data for December rose by just 108,000, well short of market expectations of a 200,000 employment increase.Dealers said the impact of the December outcome was softened from an upward revision of 90,000 to the November non-farm payrolls, while the October data was revised down by 19,000. They said the overall revisions resulted in a total non-farm payrolls growth in 2005 of 2.02 mln compared to total payrolls growth of 2.194 mln in 2004. The NAB currency strategists said given the November revisions, the payrolls data over the past couple of months will see the US Federal Reserve increase cash rates by 25 basis points to 4.50 pct on Jan 31. 'But the odds of a March rate hike remain around 50 pct. If December's outcome is repeated in coming months and we see a slowing in job growth, the Federal Reserve might be done by the time Ben Bernanke takes over,' they said.Dealers said Federal Reserve Bank of Boston president Cathy Minehan outlined the Federal funds rate is near the bottom end of the neutral rate range, but future decisions will depend on incoming economic data ahead. Also released in the US on Friday were average hourly wages for December, which rose 0.3 pct from a 0.1 pct increase in November, raising the annual rate of wages growth to 3.1 pct which is the biggest increase since 2002.They said the unemployment rate for December eased to 4.9 pct from 5.0 in November, below the market consensus of a flat outcome. Dealers said the markets will focus on Friday's release of key retail sales and producer price index data for December due on Friday. They added US trade deficit data on Thursday could attract extra attention from traders, with US dollar bears arguing that a peak in interest rates will refocus attention on the record US external deficit. In the euro zone the economic group's unemployment rate for November remained at 8.3 pct and was in-line with market expectations. Dealers said the European Central Bank and Bank of England both meet on Thursday, with no change to official interest rates expected.They said a market survey on Friday of traders, strategists and investors showed 44 pct recommend selling the US dollar against the euro, up from 28 pct in the previous survey conducted in the prior week. The NAB currency strategists said the euro's strength from the wea[...]



FOREX-Dollar hits 27-mo high vs yen

2006-01-08T22:15:54.943-08:00

FOREX-Dollar hits 27-mo high vs yen on US rate viewBy John ParryNEW YORK, Nov 25 (Reuters) - The dollar rose to a new 27-month high against the yen in holiday-thinned trade on Friday, bolstered by the market's return to the view that rising U.S. interest rates will give the greenback a lift for some time yet.The dollar also rose against the euro.These gains showed the U.S. currency "has continued to recover from Tuesday's minutes of the November 1 Fed meeting which introduced some uncertainty into the longer term outlook for U.S. interest rates and triggered the notion the Fed may be less aggressive (in raising interest rates)" said Alex Beuzelin, foreign exchange market analyst with Ruesch International in Washington DC.The central bank's minutes from its Nov 1 meeting revealed some policy-makers were concerned about the risk of going too far with the Fed's rate-rise campaign."But the market has digested those minutes and the reality remains that in the near term the Federal Reserve will continue to outpace its central bank counterparts in Europe and in Japan, which means the dollar's rate advantage will get better," Beuzelin added.In 2005, the dollar has rallied as rising U.S. interest rates and yields have burnished the appeal of dollar-denominated deposits to foreign investors.Midmorning in New York, the dollar gained against the yen to new 27-month highs at 119.69 yen, up 0.6 percent from late Thursday, according to Reuters data. The euro traded at $1.1733, down 0.4 percent.Against the Swiss franc, the dollar traded up 0.3 percent at 1.3186 francs. Earlier, the Swiss currency rallied against the euro and dollar after stronger-than-expected Swiss data.The moves took place in thin trading conditions, U.S.-based traders said, with desks having only skeleton staffing in the wake of Thursday's U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. With little U.S. economic data to speak of, major currencies were rangebound as analysts braced for next week's array of potentially market moving U.S. economic reports.Next week brings a data on gross domestic product for the third quarter, the core PCE price index -- an inflation gauge the Fed watches closely -- the Institute for Supply Management November manufacturing report and the November non-farm payrolls report, for which economists' median forecast is a rise of 210,000 jobs.The currency market has high expectations for the jobs report, ISM manufacturing survey and inflation data, "which all point towards continued strength in the economy and favor the U.S. dollar," said Tim Mazanec, director and senior currency strategist with Investors Bank & Trust in Boston.The U.S. Federal Reserve's credit-tightening campaign, with expectations for further increases, has helped drive the dollar up more than 15 percent against the euro and yen this year.The Federal Reserve is expected to raise rates next month to 4.25 percent from the current 4 percent, while the European Central Bank is seen increasing its refi rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent next Thursday.The yen was also knocked against the dollar in thin post-Thanksgiving trade as mixed Japanese inflation data cemented expectations that interest rates in Japan won't rise soon."The yen remains the weakest link due to the benign rate outlook in Japan," said Niels Christensen, senior currency strategist at Societe Generale in Paris.China disappointed offshore investors with a one-year, $6 billion currency swap that priced the yuan at a weaker level than had been expected in the one-year forward markets.(Additional reporting by Veronica Brown in London)[...]



Forex weekly review and outlook

2006-01-08T22:16:19.190-08:00

Forex weekly review and outlookForexTV.com Commentary, News, & Analysis.FOREX WEEKLY REVIEW AND OUTLOOKOct 02 2005 09:10 amEUR/USDEUR/USD's decline was just contained above cluster support of 1.1964/70 (with 61.8% projection 1.2582 to 1.2098 from 1.2269 at 1.1970) last Tuesday and turned into volatile sideway trading since then. Even though the downside momentum of the fall from 1.2269 is not convincing, EUR/USD is still trading well below 4 hours 55 EMA and the short term falling trend line. Overall short term trend is still downwards As discussed before the fall from 1.2582 is treated as either (i) resumption of medium term down trend from 1.3668; OR (ii) a falling leg of widerange consolidation pattern from 1.1873. In either case, the immediate question is how far this fall will go. At this point, the fall from 1.2582 is still expected to continue as long as cluster resistance of 1.2119/23 (50% retracement of 1.2269 to 1.1976 and 23.6% retracement of 1.2582 to 1.1976 at 1.2119) holds. But weakness could only be confirmed by firm breaking of 1.1964/70 cluster support. In such case, further decline towards 1.1873 low should follow. But, the real test lies in cluster projection target at 1.1759 (1.1759 being Apr 04 low, 50% projection of1.3483 to 1.1873 from 1.2582 at 1.1777, 100% projection of 1.2582 to 1.2098 from1.2269 at 1.1785). Strong rebound above this level could mark the end of thefall from 1.2582 and bring another leg of consolidation pattern from 1.1873.Decisive break of 1.1759 will add much credence to the scenario that medium termfall from 1.3668 has resumed.On the upside, break above 1.2119/23 resistance will indicate the whole fall from 1.2582 has possibly finished and opens up a few short term bullish scenarios. But in any case, EUR/USD should head towards next cluster resistance at 1.2269 (50% retracement of 1.2582 to 1.1976 at 1.2279) first. Stay tuned with our daily and mid-day newslettersGBP/USDEven though, crawling lower to as low as 1.7565 last week, cable's fall is still contained above 78.6% retracement of 1.7271 to 1.8498 at 1.7530. From a bigger picture, since we're treating the fall from 1.8498 as resumption of medium term down trend from 1.9554, further decline to cluster support of 1.7271 (161.8% projection of 1.8498 to 1.7959 from 1.8146 at 1.7274) is still being expected in the coming week(s). However, the question is, whether a corrective rebound will happen in the near term first.Zooming in the the near term picture. Even though, cable is cable is still trading well below falling trend line and 4 hours 55 EMA, downside momentum is not convincing as bullish convergence is displayed in 4 hours MACD. Further consolidative trading is favored and cable could recover towards cluster resistance of 1.7797 resistance (with 38.2% retracement of 1.8146 to 1.7565 at 1.7787 and 23.6% retracement of 1.8498 to 1.7565 at 1.7785). Break above this level will indicate the fall from 1.8498 could have finished and opens up a few near term bullish scenarios. But in any case, break of 1.7797 will push cable towards next cluster resistance of (with 61.8% retracement of 1.8146 to 1.7566 at 1.7924 and 38.2% retracement of 1.8498 to 1.7565 at 1.7921).Firm break of 1.7530 will signal down trend resumption for 1.7271. Stay tuned with our daily and mid-day newslettersUSD/CHFSimilar to EUR/USD, USD/CHF's rally was limited at 1.2996, slightly below 61.8% projection of 1.2239 to 1.2825 from 1.2654 at 1.3016 last Tuesday and turned into sideway trading since then. This rally from 1.2239 is either resumption of medium term up trend from 1.[...]



FOREX-Dollar falls as US growth

2006-01-08T22:18:24.116-08:00

LONDON, Sept 5 (Reuters) - The dollar hit its lowest levels in nearly four months on Monday on worries that the Federal Reserve may pause in its dollar-supportive monetary tightening as the United States counts the cost of Hurricane Katrina. The yen rose both against the dollar and euro, taking heart from buyoant Tokyo stocks which hit 4-year highs and data showing Japanese firms boosted capital spending in the second quarter. In relatively thin trading due to the U.S. Labour Day holiday, investors sold dollars as surging gasoline prices and uncertainty about how deeply Katrina has affected the economy fanned talk the Fed might not raise interest rates at its Sept. 20 meeting from the current 3.5 percent. "People are unwinding growth expectations and interest rate expectations," said Naeem Wahid, currency strategist at HBOS Treasury Services. "The market was pricing in Fed funds rate at 4.25 percent by the year end at one point, now it has been pushed back to 3.75 percent. The dollar will struggle in this environment." By 0940 GMT, the dollar had fallen 1 percent on the day to to 108.77 yen, a 2-1/2 month low. Against the euro it stood at $1.2556, holding close to Friday's 3-month low of $1.2589. It hit a four-month low versus sterling at $1.8499 and a 3-1/2 month low of 1.2241 Swiss francs. The dollar hit its lowest level since May 18 against a basket of major currencies. The euro showed little reaction to data showing growth in the euro zone service sector eased in August, with high oil prices putting pressure on margins. FED PAUSE? The big question for investors is how the Fed will respond to Katrina's impact. U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow said on Friday that Katrina could slow U.S. economic growth for a quarter or so, though it would not have a lasting impact. Some economists said that it would take evidence of a severe downturn in the economy for the Fed to take an extended break in its credit tightening cycle that started in June 2004, given their stated concerns about inflation pressures. The Fed has raised its funds rate 10 straight times to 3.50 percent, helping propel the dollar higher during the first half of the year. "The market is increasingly seeing a risk that the Fed pauses in its rate cycle -- not only that but also the peak in the interest cycle will be considerably lower," said Adam Cole, senior currency(image) strategist at Royal Bank of Canada. The market will keep an eye on upcoming data on U.S. retail sales, jobless claims and consumer confidence, as well as reaction from Fed officials who are due to speak this week, for clues about the hurricane's impact on policy. "I personally think they would raise rates (this month). Inflation could be also a problem so the key to this would be Fed speakers this week," said Wahid at HBOS.



Latest Happenings

2005-08-29T07:03:00.266-07:00

Software send out contamination alert

29/08/2005 - Next time the phone rings, it could by your software alerting you about a contamination problem on the line or in the lab.

The software is from Centrus International, which has developed a rapid alert system to connect its microbial testing equipment with food safety managers or lab workers.

The connectivity allows food, meat, dairy, beverage and nutraceutical processors to make faster, better-informed decisions regarding product safety and release, stated Dominique Sorgeloos, Centrus' managing director of business operations.

“In food microbial testing, speed is all-important,” Sorgeloos stated in a press release. “Soleris Connectivity software speeds the flow of vital test results from the laboratory to key decision makers, allowing them to make fast choices in real time that ensure product safety and quality.”

The company developed its Soleris Connectivity software for use with its rapid optical system. The software system provides secure, real-time test results and data to an unlimited number of approved network users.

It can be adapted to interface with specific laboratory information management systems. The system can also be programmed to send contamination alarms securely through traditional and cellular phone systems.

The software features automated system control, data analysis and automatic contamination detection. Test results can be sent to additional designated workstations on networks inside and outside the lab or testing area.

The information can be sent using a secure supervisor workstation, speeding the distribution of information to an unlimited number of designated viewers.


The system can be integrated with existing information systems, allowing labs to incorporate test results with their own proprietary data and operating systems, Centrus stated.

Test results can be monitored from remote locations connected through any existing communication line, including by telephone or mobile phones, giving managers the ability to receive results and analysis from any test site on the network.

In addition, the software can send alarms through traditional and cellular phone lines when a sample tests positive for contamination.

Other features include a manual backup function, an ability to transfer data files and reports to a supervisor station and a hardware security device to ensure lab results are accessible only through designated secure-access workstations.



Pentax *ist DS2 Digital Camera Announced

2005-12-29T04:45:26.833-08:00

Pentax *ist DS2 Digital Camera Announced Pentax *ist DS2 D-SLR introduction : Pentax introduces the new Pentax *ist DS2 digital SLR camera. The *ist DS2 D-SLR comes equipped with a large, high-resolution 2.5-inch color LCD monitor and a high-magnification glass pentaprism viewfinder for a large, clear view at every stage of digital photography from shooting to playback to editing.With its enhanced operability and maneuverability, the new Pentax *ist DS 2 assures high-quality digital SLR photography to photographers of all levels. Following in the footsteps of the *ist DS, Pentax's most popular digital SLR to date, the *ist DS2 is a user-friendly camera that is an ideal digital SLR choice for use by families that include beginning and more advanced photographers. Pentax DA 12-24mm ED AL lens Pentax also announced another DA lens and an auto flash unit for use with the latest digital SLR and the entire line of Pentax digital SLR cameras. Pentax will ship the smc Pentax DA 12mm-24mm F4 ED AL [IF] lens in October 2005. First announced earlier in the year, the latest digital SLR lens offers ultra wide-angle coverage and exceptional optical performance for digital SLR users. The Pentax smc 12-24mm marks the eighth lens product offering developed by Pentax that is optimized for digital SLR sensors. Pentax AF540FGZ flash - High guide number Pentax also unveiled an AF540FGZ auto flash unit featuring a large guide number of 54 (at ISO100/m). This clip-on, twist/tilt, auto-zoom flash provides a variety of advanced flash applications, including P-TTL auto flash, high-speed synchronization and wireless P-TTL auto flash, when mounted on a Pentax SLR camera. Availability of the Pentax *ist DS2 D-SLR is September 2005 for under $800 US for body alone. The Pentax 12-24mm lens will ship for under $900. The Pentax AF540FGZ auto flash will ship in October 2005 for under $400 US. *ist DS2 D-SLR - Large display and Compact design The Pentax *ist DS2 incorporates a high-precision 2.5-inch color LCD monitor with approximately 210,000 pixels for easier post-shooting image confirmation. Recorded images can be magnified up to 12 times during playback for closer examination of subject focus and image details. In addition, on-screen menus are displayed with large, easy-to-read letters and digits to facilitate user operations. Featuring a host of advanced downsizing developments, including a high-rigidity stainless-steel chassis, multi-layered electronic circuit boards and high-density packaging technology, the Pentax *ist DS2 digital reflex camera is designed extremely compact and lightweight, measuring 4.9 inches (125mm) wide, 3.6 inches (92.5mm) high and 2.6 inches (67mm) thick, the *ist DS2 weighs 17.8 ounces (505 grams) without batteries and an SD memory card. Pentax *ist DS 2 - Bright viewfinder and 6.1 Megapixels The Pentax *ist DS 2 comes equipped with a glass pentaprism viewfinder offering a 95% field of view and 0.95times magnification. The camera offers a large, bright viewfinder image equal in size, clarity and brightness to those incorporated in conventional 35mm format SLRs to make confirmation of the subject's focus easier even in manual focus mode. With a large, high performance CCD image sensor measuring 23.5mm by 15.7mm, the *ist DS2 offers 6.1 effective Megapixels. Coupled with original image processing technology from Pentax, it produces high-definition images rich in gradation and saturation. It also offers a choice of finishing touch between "Bright" and "Natural"[...]



Forex

2005-08-11T08:46:28.516-07:00

FOREX-Dollar falls broadly ahead of retail salesLONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - The dollar fell to its lowest levels against the euro and Swiss franc in about two months on Thursday, extending a recent decline, while the yen jumped on strong gains in Tokyo stocks and fading political worries. U.S. retail sales data later in the session is expected to show strong growth but the upbeat forecasts failed to boost the dollar as investors appeared keen to take profits on this year's 10-percent rally."We are just seeing continued dollar consolidation," said Jeremy Stretch, currency strategist at Rabobank in London."The market has become accustomed to strong U.S. data across the board and much of the good news is priced in so dollar longs are getting frustrated."At 1200 GMT the dollar traded 0.2 percent down on the day at $1.2408 per euro, after hitting $1.2431, its lowest level since the end of May. It also fell to 1.2503 Swiss francs, a low from June 8.Euro zone data showed the bloc's economy growing at a slightly faster than expected pace of 1.2 percent on the year in the second quarter.Against the yen, the dollar fell to 110.12 yen, a three-week low, before regaining some ground to 110.40.Meanwhile, the Norwegian crown eased slightly versus the dollar and euro after the country's central bank kept interest rates at 2 percent but appeared less hawkish than some analysts had expected.DOLLAR DATAAnalysts said the dollar was unlikely to benefit sustainably from strong retail sales data because investors have grown accustomed to upbeat economic figures from the U.S. There were also concerns about U.S. trade figures due on Friday."It is difficult to see this release providing much reprieve for the dollar. In fact, as the market's attention turns towards structural issues, it is the June trade balance data, due for release tomorrow, which will grab the focus," UBS analysts said in a note.The Japanese currency was bolstered by Tokyo stocks which hit four-year highs on optimism about Japan's economy amid buying by foreign investors.It reversed losses made following Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's called for an election after losing a parliamentary vote on privatising the postal system.Public opinion polls showed on Wednesday Koizumi's support rating had risen since he called the election for Sept. 11 to seek a new mandate for reforms.Even before this week's rally, foreign investors bought a net 495.0 billion yen ($4.47 billion) of Japanese stocks in the week ended Aug. 6, taking their net purchases this calendar year to 5.27 trillion yen.The yield on two-year Japanese government bonds hit an 11-month high while yen money market futures fell as speculation swelled that the Bank of Japan would end its zero interest rate policy early next year.After upbeat machinery orders data this week, investors are looking ahead to Japan's gross domestic product figures for the April-June quarter on Friday for evidence of robust growth.Talk that Japanese investors were preparing to repatriate coupon payments on U.S. Treasuries also helped the yen, traders said.Analysts have estimated that $5 billion of the $24.7 billion in coupons to be issued on Aug. 15 will go to Japanese investors. Barclays Capital said coupon-related sales of dollars for yen could total $900 million a day between Friday and next Tuesday."The yen is trading a bit better on the back of fundamentals," said Stretch. "There are signs of foreign investors coming back to Japan again and the market [...]



FOREX Basics

2005-08-21T23:48:51.640-07:00

FOREX Basics.

What is it?

On the FOREX exchange you can buy and sell currencies. For example, you might buy Japanese yens (by exchanging them to the dollars you had), then, after yen / dollar ratio goes up, you sell yens and buy dollars again. At the end of this operation you are going to have more dollars, then you had at the beginning.

The FOREX market has much higher liquidity, then the stock market, as much more money are being exchanged. Also, it does not have "exchange places", like stock market does. FOREX is spread between banks all over the world, and as the result, it is open 24 hours, during the business week.

Unlike stocks, FOREX trades are performed with high leverage, usually it is 100. It means that by investing $1000 you can control $100,000, and increase potential profits accordingly. Some brokers provide also so called mini-FOREX, where the size of minimum deposit equals $100. It makes possible for individuals to enter this market easily.

Important note: Trader software comes with indicators, that are configured to assume margin (leverage) equal 1 stock operations and 100 for FOREX.

The name convention. In FOREX, the name of a "symbol" is composed of two parts - one for first currency, and another for the second currency. For example, the symbol usdjpy stands for US dollars (usd) to Japanese yen (jpy).

As with stocks, you can apply tools of the technical analysis to FOREX charts. Trader's indexes can be optimized for FOREX "symbols", allowing you to find winning strategy.




Cord Blood

2005-08-04T23:28:48.183-07:00

Cord BloodQ: Where can I donate cord blood?A: If you are interested, or someone you know is interested, in donating cord blood, look for a Cord Blood Bank or collecting hospital within or close to your community. There are only a small number of cord blood banks in the United States, so donation to a local bank is not possible in many areas.If there is not an NMDP Cord Blood Bank in your community, refer to the Non-NMDP Cord Blood Bank list on this Web site or contact any major university hospital or medical center in your state to see if they accept cord blood donations. Q: Why isn't there a cord blood bank or collecting hospital in my area?A: Cord blood donation is currently not possible in many communities. Many communities do not have the technical and financial resources needed to establish and operate a public cord blood bank. Although cord blood banks are developing throughout the United States, the annual number of births far exceeds the expected need for cord blood storage.Q: Does it cost me anything to donate cord blood?A: There is no cost for donating. Unrelated donor cord blood banks will take care of the procedure and cover the cost of processing and storing your baby's cord blood unit. However, parents also have the option of storing cord blood exclusively for use within their own family for a fee. Several banks in the United States will collect and store cord blood reserved for private use. A list of these banks is available at www.parentsguidecordblood.com.Q: Are there any risks to donating cord blood?A: Donating cord blood is medically safe. Donating poses no health risks to you or your baby. Donating does not affect your baby or your birth experience because the cord blood is collected after your baby is born. If you or your baby experience any complications during delivery, your doctor will not collect the cord blood. Q: I have been approached, or contacted, by a self-storage program about storing my child's cord blood. Should I store the cord or donate it?A: Donating your child's cord blood or storing it for private use is a personal decision that only you can make. If you have a child with leukemia or other disease that may be treatable by transplant and you are pregnant, talk with your oncologist or pediatrician about saving your baby's cord blood. For more information see the Non-NMDP Cord Blood Bank list.Families may feel a great deal of pressure from the promotions and advertisements they receive from the for-profit private storage cord blood banks. The NMDP agrees with the policy statement of The American Academy of Pediatrics (AAP) issued in 1999:AAP's second recommendation follows: "Given the difficulty of making an accurateestimate of the need for autologous [donationfrom self] transplantation and the readyavailability of allogeneic [donation fromsibling or unrelated person] transplantation,private storage of cord blood as "biologicalinsurance" is unwise. However, banking shouldbe considered if there is a family member witha current or potential need toundergo a stem cell transplantation."(Words in italics added by the NMDP.)Q: What will happen to my child's cord blood if I donate it?A: After the baby's birth, the umbilical cord is clamped, breaking the link between the baby and the placenta. The small amount of blood remaining in the placenta and umbilical cord, typically three to five fluid ounces, is drained and taken to a cord blood bank where t[...]