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The Big Picture



Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media



Last Build Date: Wed, 22 Nov 2017 23:00:10 +0000

 



James Simons: Conquering Wall Street with Mathematics

Wed, 22 Nov 2017 23:00:10 +0000

A speech and Q&A with billionaire and the second richest hedge fund manager in the world, James Simons. In this speech James talks about his life, career and the events that lead him to starting Renaissance Technologies. James also goes on to speak about why Renaissance technologies is so successful and his guiding principles for…

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Black Friday Forecasts Still Suck

Wed, 22 Nov 2017 19:00:45 +0000

Holiday Sales Forecasts Still Stink Just say no to unreliable methodologies. Bloomberg, November 22, 2017     It’s that time of year when we all gather to give thanks for our blessings, overindulge in various foodstuffs, and, of course, go shopping. Shopmas is also the time of the year when I call out the National Retail Federation for their bogus retail forecasts; they…

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Beware Lists of Giant Winners

Wed, 22 Nov 2017 14:00:09 +0000

You can tell we are getting later in the cycle of a market when people start to notice all of the giant winners they missed. In 2010 or so, you would not have seen a lot of these sorts of things, as everybody was suffering from the recency effects of the Great Recession. This list…

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10 Wednesday AM Reads

Wed, 22 Nov 2017 12:57:42 +0000

My pre-travel morning train reads: • Personalization Helps Retailers; Too Bad They’re Terrible at It (Bloomberg Gadfly) see also Retail Apocalypse Can Lead to Suburban Renaissance (Bloomberg View) • Not All Alternative Strategies Are Created Equal (WisdomTree) • German Meltdown: Everyone Loses in Coalition Collapse (Spiegel) • Seven reasons to be suspicious of the DOJ lawsuit to stop AT&T…

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MiB: VC asks: “What is this solution worth to a customer?”

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 17:00:14 +0000

Greg Sands, founder of Costanoa Ventures, has a deep background in technology. Sands was the first product manager at Netscape Communications, where he worked with Marc Andreesen and Jim Clark. Sands created the business plan for the company, and coined the name “Netscape.” Prior to founding Costanoa, Sands was a Managing Director at legendary venture…

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Student Loans Not a Macro Problem

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 14:00:29 +0000

We keep hearing that Student Loans will derail the U.S. economy, but from these data series, I cannot see how that happens short of a much bigger recession. Via Torsten Slok: “The latest data shows that 16% of student loan borrowers have a balance bigger than $50k. With 44 million student loans outstanding this means that…

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10 Tuesday AM Reads

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 12:57:03 +0000

My two-fer Tuesday morning train reads: • Why Worriers (Usually) Get the Market Wrong (Wall Street Journal) see also Declutter Your Life. Declutter Your Mind. (Medium) • The Buyback Boost Goes Bye-Bye (Bloomberg Gadfly) • Spam is back: It seemed like we had defeated electronic junk mail. Then the spammers rose from the dead. (The Outline) • How to Hire a Behavioral Scientist…

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What Stores Are Closed on Thanksgiving Day?

Tue, 21 Nov 2017 11:30:39 +0000

I hate that (some) stores are open on Turkey Day. Its just a grotesque example of consumerism run amuck, and not at all what the day is supposed to be about :   Stores closing on Thanksgiving Day A.C. Moore Abt Electronics Academy Sports + Outdoors At Home BJ’s Wholesale Club Blain’s Farm and Fleet…

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