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Comments on Climate Observations: Reproducing Global Temperature Anomalies With Natural Forcings





Updated: 2017-05-04T03:58:35.514-04:00

 



Carl: I have no plans to the Heartland Conference...

2009-01-26T20:11:00.000-05:00

Carl: I have no plans to the Heartland Conference, not unless someone invites me down to New York for a cup of coffee. There are a few people I'd like to meet, though.

NOMADS is undergoing updates to include 2009 data and the long-term "All" selection for ERSST.v2 data is currently not available. I've exchanged emails with the person working on it. No word on when it will be corrected.

You can always use the KNMI Climate Explorer website. The data starts in 1880, but at least it's data.

There are a few more things I want to try before I go back and do other checks. With that in mind, I'm going to get back to preparing Part 2 of the post so I can get to the "new" things.

Regards



Great post. Have you considered attending the Hear...

2009-01-26T18:58:00.000-05:00

Great post. Have you considered attending the Heartland's Int'l Conference on Climate Change? Too many scientists and amateurs are too focused on the sun and cosmic rays. Maybe you could get some more attention directed at ENSO by attending and passing out papers. I'll be attending and I'll deffinately try to draw attention to oceanic responses to ENSO.

Also, have you been able to use this site lately? http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/ncdc-ui/define-collection.pl?model_sys=sst&model_name=ersst&grid_name=999
I specify the dates I need, but now it will only give me data back to 1955.

It would be interesting if you adjusted the entire global temperature record for the immediate effects of ENSO events and then compared that dataset with the modeled response pre-ENSO noise. That would be the real test to see if your model is reproducing observed temperature trends.



This is a very interesting construction Bob. Like ...

2009-01-25T21:38:00.000-05:00

This is a very interesting construction Bob. Like you I consider that the effects of ENSO on global temperature must be accounted for before one can begin to account for other factors that might or might not be involved. However, I believe that the ENSO effects play out via a change in cloud cover (changing the amount of sunlight reaching the surface) in the regions that feed water into the tropics around the globe, in particular in the southern hemisphere. I am in a position to demonstrate that and will post that data soon. It can be seen that temperature increases occur in the surface waters of the South East Pacific, south of Nino 1+2 prior to and synonymous with the change in Nino 1+2 temperature. This increase in temperature in the surface waters south of Nino 1+2 is preceded by a fall in sea level atmospheric pressure and a rise in the temperature of the upper troposphere.

In August each year the upper troposphere at 30-40°S reaches a strong thermal maximum at a time when surface waters are at their thermal minimum. There is another 200hPa temperature peak in February.

This August upper air maximum temperature is associated with a season peak in ozone content. From August to March 200hPa temperatures stay high with ozone gradually decreasing but short wave solar radiation increasing over the period. If an El Nino event begins, this is when it manifests.

Each year in southern winter the southern stratosphere cools and the cool zone gradually descends towards the troposphere between mid and late year. Ozone descends with it. If solar influences react with that ozone in Southern Spring and summer, warming occurs down into the upper tropsophere. That warming, when sufficient, drives El Nino events.