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Asia Prop





Updated: 2011-08-29T15:01:28.813+08:00

 



Stopped writing? its the end of August...

2010-08-27T20:59:10.384+08:00

Stopped writing? its the end of August...



As for protectionism is a logical call. However, i...

2010-01-07T13:57:08.418+08:00

As for protectionism is a logical call. However, it hasn't happened up till now, so its hard to say why it'll happen in 2010. because importing countries are EVEN more upset ? I think China will continue to canabalise Western manufacturing until the West forces them to stop. Until now the West has shirked away from this, will it man up in 2010 ?



Sok Mun > you are right about the buying, heari...

2010-01-07T13:53:15.332+08:00

Sok Mun > you are right about the buying, hearing same in Taipei as well. The hardest thing is to reconcile the data with the buying. I've stopping trying to beleive the numbers and started to beleive my eyes. Can it be enough, I don't think so. But i don't think the US Consumer shrivels up completely either.



... a possilbe call for 2010 would be protectionis...

2010-01-05T20:19:55.649+08:00

... a possilbe call for 2010 would be protectionism and a continued drop in global trade levels. China is annoying everyone with their peg and it will not be long before concrete measures are taken.



I am curious about whether the China consumer spen...

2010-01-05T19:55:45.267+08:00

I am curious about whether the China consumer spending can drive the Greater China economy like the US consumer spending has driven the US economy in the past.
The Chinese are REALLY buying. I was in HK and could not find one boutique without a customer from China. All the fine dining are booked way in advance.



The irony of all this is almost all economic trend...

2009-12-11T14:34:05.760+08:00

The irony of all this is almost all economic trend forecasters and big picture analysts see 2010 as the pivotal year when all the pressures of past government and central bank policy errors and the unresolved insovency of the US banking system comes to roost. Gerald Celente, Leap2020 are in the armageddon category but even mild economist all see double dip. And the markets are ignoring it. Remember 2007? As subprime first reared its ugly head in March07, there was a small sell off followed by a senseless liquidity driven rally. 2008 was the year of reckoning. Now, we have even worse economic and banking sector distress (one only has to dig a little to see the tsunamis heading our way: CRE, OptionARM, Prime, Student Loans, Sovereign default etc) and yet no one wants to leave the party. Combine that with the political backlash from the 2008/9 bailout of the financial system and ongoing deterioration of the real economy and we have the potential of systemic failure again, AND this time, stakeholders will be paying the price, not the common populace. The clock is ticking now, and no matter what the CNBC pundits or the myopic sell side analysts say, the time for reckoning is not far. What do you want to be when that happens? Long or Short or on a farm in NZ?


It pays to leave the burning house early, even though the wine and food and music is good. Leaving too late usually ends in tears.



Wow, Tim that is indeed a bleak view of 2010. As f...

2009-12-10T16:52:04.130+08:00

Wow, Tim that is indeed a bleak view of 2010. As far as what I wrote, I don't think I meant to infer you could never have a systemic fail, only that that it is the mindset of Benanke et al to never allow it.

I share you view that the banks are woefully under capitalized, and expect to see them pushed and prodded into doing something about this in Q1
My point was more that until this is hapens the Fed can't raise rates. On which I see we agree.

I don't know if the banks are able to recapitalize. I don't know what the trigger is for them to be forced to recognize losses ... although I agree they are steadily accruing them.

But from a PA perspective, long vol, short riskies into Q1 makes sense to me. I wonder if everyone is waiting for a Jan rally to sell into ?



You do know that is an impossibility, especially n...

2009-12-09T10:28:31.864+08:00

You do know that is an impossibility, especially not with the next round of writeoffs and defaults that is forthcoming. The Fed is out of options. It cannot raise rates, but the market might raise it for them. Lets keep it simple. US$1.5trn of new US treasuries is not going to fund itself. On top of that, bank capital will take bigger hit when all the Level 3 marks are proven to be false when the actual defaults start to occur. Look at the amounf of loss provision the banks have provided in the last 3 quarters. Only JPM comes even close to providing a reasonable amount (and that is on the most optimistic of economic outlooks). So I do expect Q1 to have the unexpected consequences of the fiscal and monetary policies of the last 12mths to come come home to roost. Remember, there will always be consequences for bad policies.



Ah.. the mythical wall of money. Ironically, I do...

2009-12-09T10:10:06.696+08:00

Ah.. the mythical wall of money. Ironically, I don't think it exists. What we have (again ironically) is leverage, but only in certain asset classes. Equities is clearly one where levereage has not disappeared. Financial leverage in derivatives (futures, options) too have increased. And then, there is the Fed taking investment grade assets for repo> All this leads to an influx of liquidity that attempted to reverse the fallout of Lehman. Can it last? Like all bubbles, it requires ever higher levels of leverage and liquidity to keep markets at current levels or move it higher. Is it likely? Well, unless you expect the fed to double its balance sheet again, or the Treasury to go into surplus or massive M1 increase by the Fed etc etc.. Methinks the end is nigh.



I think i-banks stopped buying equities in October...

2009-12-08T00:15:57.306+08:00

I think i-banks stopped buying equities in October, from here on in its real money that will lead us.



sorry a bit slow to respond. well now gold is fall...

2009-12-08T00:14:07.391+08:00

sorry a bit slow to respond. well now gold is falling, although not as quick as it rose. $1142 last I looked. as I have said in the past I don't quite get gold. The roll in the Comex went off ok and that could be a reason for it peaking. You could argue though that the role of gold as a non fiat store of value will become more of an issue in 2010 when the choice between taxes and more borrowing to pay for continued stimulus has to be made. Many just don't beleive QE will end this year.

For me the blessing that gold has of being a somewhat fixed supply asset is also its curse. It, like many commods can potentially be ramped up. So while I don't trust politicians not to debase their currencies I also don't trust gold not to be manipulated.

Not a very satisfying answer I know. So how about this. For me Gold is a product to trade, and nothing more. Not a store of value to the end of time. And right now it is falling. If it falls enough, maybe I'll buy it. But if i do, it will only be to sell later, not to hold forever.



gold goes up about a percent a day, every day almo...

2009-12-03T09:58:27.807+08:00

gold goes up about a percent a day, every day almost without fail... why is this so if broad measures of money supply are still falling? Is inflation really about to run away with itself? I doubt it... the other reason for the rise is that it is insurance against an economic collapse, but arent things getting less stressed? It appears to me that neither of the two main arguments for the ascent of gold presently hold true... I am confused... maybe it is this wall of money you are talking about?



Prior to 2008, Dec is usually a good month for equ...

2009-11-27T00:40:29.314+08:00

Prior to 2008, Dec is usually a good month for equities. Investment banks has book closure in Nov and Dec is like starting of a new year. But with ALL I-Bank now Commercial banks with Dec year-end, I am not sure if the same pattern will repeat itself this Dec.

Sok Mun



If you happen to be in Barbados, look me up.

2009-06-22T10:27:49.441+08:00

If you happen to be in Barbados, look me up.



So far I'm had many guesses, only 2 correct, 1 wit...

2009-05-20T14:54:55.936+08:00

So far I'm had many guesses, only 2 correct, 1 with a fair amount of help ... the other correct answer with much more limited prodding. But no completely independent winner. At least not yet...



Brazil is a fair thought - the Bovespa has a 11.8%...

2009-05-20T14:49:57.821+08:00

Brazil is a fair thought - the Bovespa has a 11.8% financial weight. Up 55% YTD though shows that Brazil is hardly a laggard.

As for H-shares, financials represent 57% although maybe less for FXI.. although ICBC makes up 8%by itself ! And 27.5% YTD means it its isn't a slouch this year.



I pick...but I favor number 1! EWZ - Brazil Index...

2009-05-20T11:45:37.181+08:00

I pick...but I favor number 1!

EWZ - Brazil Index has net assets of $3.4 billion, a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.0.

FXI - The 25 largest Chinese companies. Net assets are $5.9 billion, its P/E ratio 10.



cash has no outlet..

2009-05-14T06:49:00.000+08:00

cash has no outlet..



I owe 1M dollars and am about to go bankrupt but m...

2009-05-07T21:59:00.000+08:00

I owe 1M dollars and am about to go bankrupt but manage to get a 100k loan for the upcomming year from the Govt, am I better off a year from now when I now owe 1.1M dollars? It depends... For sure im solvent (+ve GDP) for the next year, but lots has to go right for my personal situation (better job/lower unemployment etc) for the answer to be yes.. That is the situation many of the world economies find themselves in now.



people are willing to pay up for physical .. just ...

2009-05-06T18:26:00.000+08:00

people are willing to pay up for physical .. just like gold stocks vs bullion . plus in property you get cheap, cheap, cheap leverage with NO collateral call. Which is why I always say mortgages, of all kinds are fundamentally mispriced.



What bothers me most is that property prices in HK...

2009-05-05T23:52:00.000+08:00

What bothers me most is that property prices in HK seem rather resilient... If you compare the property prices vs the property stocks prices, it's really tempting to switch from physical property into property stocks



if the flu doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger...

2009-05-05T18:36:00.000+08:00

if the flu doesn't kill you, it makes you stronger .. well mkts at least. As for Singapore property .. not yet, not yet ... I want to see prices fall another $2~300 psf first. Supply seems endless but if price is right I'd still come on down !



Tell me about it matey, you've nailed it. A pictur...

2009-05-05T11:41:00.000+08:00

Tell me about it matey, you've nailed it. A picture's worth a thousand words - who would have thought the swine flu + negative news flow on distress test reports only fortified the mkts, haha...

So how many units are you buying in S'pore?



I'm happier to have covered my bank longs more tha...

2009-04-21T18:31:00.000+08:00

I'm happier to have covered my bank longs more that the fact I went short. The short was too small, but will likely add if I get the opportunity. Asia didn't buy into the selloff today. i think that's a mistake. let's see.



oooh... I dont dare trying the sushi nor going lon...

2009-04-21T11:09:00.000+08:00

oooh... I dont dare trying the sushi nor going long mkts from here. Sharp move on shorting banks last wk. I tend to agree that we wud see further downside being exposed