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Peterson Institute Press


Why Has the Stock Market Risen So Much Since the US Presidential Election?

Fri, 16 Feb 2018 10:15:00 -0500

Immediately following the US presidential election in November 2016, many economists were concerned that increased uncertainty over economic policy would lead to a decline in the US stock market. From the time of the election to the end of 2017, however, the stock market, as measured by the...

The New Tax Law’s Impact on Inequality

Mon, 05 Feb 2018 14:15:00 -0500

The centerpiece of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) of 2017 is the reduction in the corporate tax rate from 35 percent to 21 percent. The Joint Committee on Taxation has estimated the net revenue loss from the tax overhaul at $1 trillion over the next decade. The underlying premise of the...

Earmarked Revenues: How the European Union Can Learn from US Budgeting Experience

Thu, 25 Jan 2018 10:00:00 -0500

New challenges facing the European Union—immigration pressures, the need to decrease security dependence on an increasingly erratic United States, and the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union (Brexit)—are compelling EU leaders to consider overhauling the revenue side of the European Union’...

China Needs Better Credit Data to Help Consumers

Tue, 23 Jan 2018 15:15:00 -0500

Formidable barriers stand between the modern financial system and the hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens still using costly informal credit. For many, the financial data that could be used to give them a credit score that would lead to a fair priced loan exist but are not being used. This...

ECB Interventions in Distressed Sovereign Debt Markets: The Case of Greek Bonds

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 12:00:00 -0500

The authors study central bank interventions in times of severe distress (mid-2010), using a unique bond-level dataset of European Central Bank (ECB) purchases of Greek sovereign debt. ECB bond buying had a large impact on the price of short and medium maturity bonds, resulting in a remarkable “...

Do Governments Drive Global Trade Imbalances?

Fri, 22 Dec 2017 23:15:00 -0500

This paper examines the extent to which government policies are responsible for the pattern of current account (trade) imbalances and, by implication, the extent to which such policies might be used to achieve the G-20 goal of reducing imbalances. Fiscal balances and foreign exchange intervention...

Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates, November 2017

Thu, 30 Nov 2017 11:15:00 -0500

The early boost to the dollar following President Donald Trump's election—a Trump "bump"—has been replaced by a Trump "dump." The real effective exchange rate (REER) for the US dollar fell by 6.3 percent from its monthly peak in December 2016 to the October base period used in this study. As a...

Should We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?

Wed, 15 Nov 2017 10:45:00 -0500

Fifty years ago, Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy. Second, there is no long-run tradeoff between the deviation of unemployment from the natural rate and inflation...

A New Index of External Debt Sustainability

Tue, 14 Nov 2017 17:00:00 -0500

Debt sustainability is fundamentally a probabilistic concept: Debt is rarely sustainable with probability one. Blanchard and Das propose an index of external debt sustainability that reflects this uncertainty. They construct the index as the probability that, at the current exchange rate, net...

Will Corporate Tax Cuts Cause a Large Increase in Wages?

Wed, 08 Nov 2017 14:00:00 -0500

Proponents of lowering corporate taxes cite an estimate by the Trump administration’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) that cutting the corporate tax rate from 35 to 20 percent would raise average annual household income by $4,000 to $9,000, corresponding to an increase in wages ranging from 6 to...