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Last Build Date: Sun, 30 Apr 2017 17:26:30 +0000


Comment on Unforced variations: Apr 2017 by Hank Roberts

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 17:26:30 +0000

for "generic commenter" (seriously, you should find yourself a name) The orange you're seeing there in that nighttime view looking down from the ISS is from amber streetlights. That light is passing directly upward through the atmosphere. Light passing vertically through the atmosphere doesn't interact with very much air -- one thickness Light passing at a low angle through the atmosphere interacts with far more air -- many times the thickness of the atmosphere. The orange/red you see in the atmosphere at sunset is the light remaining after the blue has been scattered by the atmosphere -- you're seeing sunset light that passes at a very low angle through a whole lot of atmosphere. There's now more red showing up in sunsets due to coal smoke than people saw before the fossil fuel era began. For the same reason the moon looks orange during a total lunar eclipse, it's lit by the "sunset" light around the edge (the "limb") of the planet, again it's light that's following a very long path through the air. LMGTFY:

Comment on Unforced variations: Apr 2017 by Hank Roberts

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 17:17:09 +0000

New estimate of the current rate of sea level rise from a sea level budget approach First published: 22 April 2017 DOI: 10.1002/2017GL073308 Abstract We revisit the global mean sea level (GMSL) budget during the whole altimetry era (January 1993 to December 2015) using a large number of data sets. The budget approach allows quantifying the TOPEX A altimeter drift (amounting 1.5 ± 0.5 mm/yr over 1993–1998). Accounting for this correction and using ensemble means for the GMSL and components lead to closure of the sea level budget (trend of the residual time series being 0.0 ± 0.22 mm/yr). The new GMSL rate over January 1993 to December 2015 is now close to 3.0 mm/yr. An important increase of the GMSL rate, of 0.8 mm/yr, is found during the second half of the altimetry era (2004–2015) compared to the 1993–2004 time span, mostly due to Greenland mass loss increase and also to slight increase of all other components of the budget.

Comment on Judy Curry’s attribution non-argument by MA Rodger

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 17:05:18 +0000

Frank @69, You tell us of Christy's testimony:-
"He said that same methodology was used to process both observations and models when separating changes in the stratosphere from changes in the troposphere. If the UAH troposphere record is contaminated with stratospheric cooling, then so are the models."
I think you need to be showing what was actually "said" by Christy. His testimony is only a dozen pages but I cannot see what you are referring to. Perhaps it is a different document you are introducing into the discussion.

Comment on Judy Curry’s attribution non-argument by Brian Dodge

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 06:53:07 +0000

"If the UAH troposphere record is contaminated with stratospheric cooling, then so are the models." Not. Even. Wrong. How, pray tell, would model MT temperatures be "contaminated" by stratospheric cooling? The models don't determine the modelled MT temperature by modelling microwave emissions from oxygen as seen through the stratosphere, they calculate the temperature directly.

Comment on Snow Water Ice and Water and Adaptive Actions for a Changing Arctic by b fagan

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 05:47:47 +0000

@13 I should have taken a moment and looked beyond the news article. The researchers have set up a web site about the frozen debris lobes at

Comment on Snow Water Ice and Water and Adaptive Actions for a Changing Arctic by b fagan

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 05:15:49 +0000

Omega Centauri @13 - in Alaska, has a July 2014 article titled "Sliding mass threatens pipeline, Dalton Highway". The geologists named probably have updates. "An immense glacier-like mass of soil and rock is inching its way toward the Dalton Highway, threatening to cut off the only access road to the North Slope and putting the trans-Alaska oil pipeline at risk. The slow-moving mass of earth is known as a frozen debris lobe, a term coined by geologists Ronald Daanen and Margaret Darrow. Daanen, a former University of Alaska Fairbanks, is now with the Alaska Department of Natural Resources. Darrow, formerly with the Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, is an associate professor of geological engineering at UAF. There are 23 such features in the Brooks Mountain Range in the direct vicinity of the Dalton Highway. The debris lobe most closely scrutinized by researchers is pushing its way down the hillside to the east of the roadway at 219 Mile of the haul road."

Comment on Unforced variations: Apr 2017 by generic commenter

Sun, 30 Apr 2017 00:54:10 +0000

Hank 137&138 or anyone, what would the 'orange' layer be, in this photo?

Comment on Unforced variations: Apr 2017 by Kevin McKinney

Sat, 29 Apr 2017 22:06:40 +0000

One of 100,000 plus in DC today. Inspiring to see the youthful energy and aged endurance. Learn this word, guys: "Intersectionality."

Comment on Judy Curry’s attribution non-argument by Alastair McDonald

Sat, 29 Apr 2017 21:06:49 +0000

Frank @69 Eric's explanation that the Mid troposphere satellite temperatures are being contaminated with stratosphere temperatures does not explain why the radiosondes agree with the MSUs. In other words, the models do not match the radiosonde measurements. Why the MSUs and models disagree has been an open question for 20 years now. How much longer is it going to take for the models to be investigate with the same intensity as the satellite data. Actually the answer is in my poster from EGU 2016 here: A Paradigm shift to an Old Scheme for Outgoing Longwave Radiation.

Comment on Judy Curry’s attribution non-argument by Eric Swanson

Sat, 29 Apr 2017 20:03:18 +0000

Frank #69 - Here's a quote from Christy's written testimony on 29 March: "In this testimony I shall focus on the temperature of the bulk atmospheric layer from the surface to about 50,000 ft. – a layer which is often called by its microwave profile name TMT (Temperature of Mid-Troposphere)." Christy then proceeds to present a plot of results from the Canadian climate model, which indicates an expected warming above the tropical region and outlines the area which he says is represented by the TMT. The plot does not indicate that the TMT also receives emissions from higher up into the Stratosphere and nowhere is there any indication that the graph is adjusted to represent simulated TMT measurements. Christy then writes: "The first type of observational datatset is built from satellites that directly measure the bulk atmospheric temperature through the intensity of microwave emissions." Again, there's no mention of the stratospheric component, which causes the TMT to exhibit a lower trend. Further on, Christy writes: "The second type of measurement is produced from the ascent of balloons which carry various instruments including thermistors (which monitor the air temperature) as the balloon rises through this layer. From these measurements a value equivalent to the satellite TMT profile is calculated." Christy has added Reanalysis data and describes these data thus: "From the information at the vertical levels the TMT quantity is generated for an apples-to-apples comparison with models, satellites and balloons. Christy continues, writing: "In Figure 2 we show the evolution of the tropical TMT temperature since 1979 for the 102 climate model runs grouped in 32 curves by institution....The curves show the temperature evolution of the atmosphere in the tropical box shown in Fig. 1." The problem I have with this is the insinuation that the TMT actually represents the temperature history of the troposphere, (which it clearly does not) and that his analysis applies to the modeled trends in Figure 1. Nowhere does Christy describe the process to create the various simulated TMT data and there's no reference material to consult. In a blog post, Spencer gave some numbers for the weighting values applied at different pressure levels, but there's no discussion of how these weights were derived and whether they were applied to all latitudes and for all seasons. Of course, the model results are zonally averaged, so it's impossible to distinguish local effects, such as ocean vs. land, high elevations and any changes in storm intensity producing hydrometeors. In other words, Christy's results are themselves based on a model, which is not discussed but which is at the core of his comparisons.