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Climate science from climate scientists...

Last Build Date: Sun, 19 Nov 2017 09:15:23 +0000


Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by Killian

Sun, 19 Nov 2017 09:15:23 +0000

Why most of you don't "get" permaculture aka regenerative systems design: It is first principles, but all the conversations here are deeply embedded in present paradigm, keeping you stagnant, like bugs in amber.
“I think it’s important to reason from first principles rather than by analogy. The normal way we conduct our lives is we reason by analogy. [With analogy] we are doing this because it’s like something else that was done, or it is like what other people are doing. [With first principles] you boil things down to the most fundamental truths…and then reason up from there.” ― Elon Musk
In order to create a new system that cannot rely on virtually any of the underpinnings of the present, it is necessary to return to the very nature of life as humans within the womb of nature and create a new future that does not violate this. In the 1960's and '70's Mollison noticed during field studies that things humans kept failing at, Nature did with simplicity, connections, resilience and no waste over the long term. This is not magic, nor ignorance, nor wishful thinking, it is returning to First Principles. It is not asking what others think, but looking to see whatis there in front of our eyes. The current paradigm is broken and suicidal, yet virtually all of the conversation on this site is completely embedded in it. As Einstein said, you can't solve a problem with the same thinking that created it. Looking at you, Kevin McKinney. You're right that you can't do simplicity as long as you choose to give to Ceasar what is Ceasar's rather than create what Ceasar cannot.

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by prokaryotes

Sun, 19 Nov 2017 02:28:04 +0000

Scientists Discover Carbon Secret beneath Rainforest

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by Omega Centauri

Sun, 19 Nov 2017 00:58:44 +0000

But of course the US emissions do matter. Even 18% of the current world emissions is too much for long term stability. But, mostly a highly visible laggard provides a powerful straw-man argument for foreign interests to exploit for their own agenda. Remember how for decades the Republicans largely blocked the US AGW agenda, by claiming it was pointless, because the Chinese would go along. Now fossil interests in China and India can scream, "It's pointless, because the Americans". Also the US has been an incubator for many of the technologies needed for the global energy transition. Now, much of that innovation is dispersing, and China is rapidly becoming the world leader. But, what happens in the US, still impacts the trajectory of the rest of the world.

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by Killian

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 15:27:47 +0000

Regarding sustainability and economics: Equality is neessary. Gotta get that Gini Coefficient down below 0.20. Only one way, Commons. Suck it up, peanuttles.

Comment on O Say can you See Ice… by Eric Swanson

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 14:11:06 +0000

After my post #10, I thought to call my own bluff, so to speak. I used the techniques from my recent paper to analyze the RSS TLT for the Arctic. I applied the band pass filtering process to both the land and ocean time series, which allowed the visualization of the remnant annual cycle which resides in those time series. The band passed results exhibit little long term trend, as most of the trend is captured in the 25 month filtered series. However, there is an unusual annual cycle contained within the filtered results. I split the band passed series in half, with an April thru September portion for Melt season and an October thru March portion as a Freeze season. The UAH LT also exhibited a cycle similar to that in the RSS TLT, though the magnitude was less. These results support my claim that trends the satellite data for the Arctic Ocean are negatively impacted by changes in the annual sea-ice cycle. The RSS results showed a pronounced cooling trend in the ocean data for the Melt season and a warming trend for the Freeze season. The months of June and July exhibited the strongest cooling, while December and January showed the strongest warming. Looking at the land only data showed a different seasonal result, with week warming or cooling over the year. There are several complicating factors in this result, such as the use of a 2.5x2.5 degree grid, which would include both land and ocean in many grid boxes, as well as the fact that the ocean area includes regions which have not experienced sea-ice during the recent past. A more detailed analysis may provide stronger evidence of the impact of the sea-ice cycle on the satellite data over the Arctic. Analytical support for this conclusion can be found in the paper by Groody et al. (2004), Appendix A. (I hadn't previously noticed that Groody et al. referenced my 2003 GRL paper in their Appendix A. How time flies...)

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by MA Rodger

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 13:51:30 +0000

mike @178, My apologies indeed. Quite what latched me on to the El Nino rather than the La Nina (to be precise, we have rather weak La Nina 'conditions' in place) I know not. The comment had been talking El Nino and with the predictions for the ENSO state quite recently (August) predicting a coming El Nino, or perhaps SOI being upside down from ONI/MEI, or... ...too much rush is a more likely explanation.

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by MA Rodger

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 13:49:38 +0000

NOAA have posted the October temperature anomaly at +0.73ºC, a little down on the last few months and the coolest of the year-so-far. (Conversely GISS showed a rise for October and BEST showed a larger rise.) It is the =4th warmest October on the NOAA record (2nd in both GISS & BEST), in NOAA lying after October 2015 (+1.00ºC), 2014 (+0.79ºC) and 2016 (+0.74ºC) and equal with 2003. October 2017 is =57th warmest anomaly in the full NOAA all-month record (=17th in GISS & 16th in BEST). When things start going in opposite directions it is perhaps worth looking for the underlying reasons. (The TLT satellite anomalies have been on a different path to surface measurements in recent months, showing a strong rise in temperature over the southern oceans.) The drop in the NOAA record results from northern ocean temperatures cooling, with the southern oceans unchanged and land in both hemispheres averaging a strong increase. The table below ranks years by the Jan-to-Oct average and for NOAA 2017 is now pretty firmly set in third spot for the full year (for GISS & BEST it is second spot), requiring a Nov/Dec average above +1.16ºC top topple 2015 from second spot and below +0.19ºC to drop into 4th below 2014. ........ Jan-Oct Ave ... Annual Ave ..Annual ranking 2016 .. +0.98ºC ... ... ... +0.95ºC ... ... ...1st 2015 .. +0.88ºC ... ... ... +0.91ºC ... ... ...2nd 2017 .. +0.86ºC 2014 .. +0.74ºC ... ... ... +0.75ºC ... ... ...3rd 2010 .. +0.72ºC ... ... ... +0.70ºC ... ... ...4th 1998 .. +0.66ºC ... ... ... +0.63ºC ... ... ...8th 2005 .. +0.66ºC ... ... ... +0.66ºC ... ... ...6th 2013 .. +0.66ºC ... ... ... +0.67ºC ... ... ...5th 2009 .. +0.64ºC ... ... ... +0.64ºC ... ... ...7th 2007 .. +0.64ºC ... ... ... +0.61ºC ... ... ...12th 2012 .. +0.64ºC ... ... ... +0.63ºC ... ... ...9th

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by zebra

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 11:46:52 +0000

nigel 167, About me being "wrong": Whether you or Killian, pronouncements and assertions without the support of evidence or reason are useless. Dude, read the freakin' Wikipedia article on TOC! It's a complicated concept; people with expertise don't all agree on it. Just using the phrase in a rhetorical way because it sounds good isn't helpful. And yes, we all agree that there's this list of things "we could do" that sound good. So what? I don't mean this in a personally angry or condescending way, but you live on some paradise-type island that some see as the ultimate haven from the apocalypse, and you're telling me: "The Republicans in America are just going to have to accept this." ??? Come visit, nigel, and you can look at my neighbor's Trump signs that are still up. You can go to a store with me and my African-American friend and get stared at and followed around. Look, I live in a country where people-- wealthy people-- get into physical altercations over lawn care practices, and in some cases it ends in gunfire. So pardon me if I am a bit cynical and pessimistic about humanity and its monkey-nature, and see wishful thinking about what "we can do" as a waste of time. We all know the goals. But getting there involves conflict, as uncomfortable as that may make the comfortable.

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by RUSSELL

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 03:33:36 +0000

A new climate policy model has just been sold at auction for a half billion dollars .

Comment on Unforced variations: Nov 2017 by Thomas

Sat, 18 Nov 2017 02:17:23 +0000

"The USA is the source of all evil..." It's called putting words in other people's mouths by exaggeration in a low grade attempt to win an "argument". But I ain't arguing. Not very "scientific" nor "logical" or "evidence based". In fact the opposite.