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Climate science from climate scientists...



Last Build Date: Sat, 01 Oct 2016 21:35:15 +0000

 



Comment on Unforced Variations: Oct 2016 by wili

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 21:35:15 +0000

Hurricane Matthew has certainly been exhibited some interesting behavior. It blossomed quickly from a tropical depression to a full category 5 hurricane in spite of some wind shear (that usually rips nascent hurricanes to shreds). Now it seems to be headed north, possibly hitting the eastern seaboard at some point. Worth watching and discussing, it seems to me.



Comment on Unforced Variations: Oct 2016 by Russell

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 19:09:05 +0000

Anthony Watts has once again declared himself the greatest living climate blogger, but something seems rotten in the stats of Wattsmark.



Comment on The Snyder Sensitivity Situation by DP

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 17:05:30 +0000

Re#16 and those temperature reconstructions the green line (Hanson et al) the temperatures seem far too high. In the Cretaceous and soon after the planet would surely have been to hot to support complex life, especially large vertabrates if they were true.



Comment on Unforced Variations: Oct 2016 by MA Rodger

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 15:38:10 +0000

Thomas @274(Unforced Variations: Sept 2016), I wasn't directly questioning your "510ppm by 2050" figure, although it may need some correction. It was your "365 ± 30 PgC" that I was claiming to be wrongly used. The impact of such an error on your calculation would be important as the proportion of emissions from LUC has dropped greatly over the period 1750-2011. As for checking the source of your "365 ± 30 PgC", IPCC AR5 Ch6 presents a summary of cumulative CO2 emissions thus:-
"Anthropogenic CO2 emissions to the atmosphere were 555 ± 85PgC (1 PgC = 10^15 gC) between 1750 and 2011. Of this amount,fossil fuel combustion and cement production contributed 375 ± 30 PgC and land use change (including deforestation, afforestation and reforestation) contributed 180 ± 80 PgC.
Your "365 ± 30 PgC" appears in drafts of chapter 6 (eg here) being the original value for FF+cement emissions. Thus the value for all sources was also set lower at "545 ± 85 PgC". As cement emissions are about 10Pg(C), this obsolete "365 ± 30 PgC" IPCC value is pretty good for FF on its own.



Comment on Unforced variations: Sep 2016 by Thomas

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 01:38:56 +0000

Most people alive today set to witness dangerous global warming in their lifetime, scientists warn. Average temperature could rise to two degrees Celsius above the norm by 2050 or ‘even sooner’ The world could hit two degrees Celsius of warming – the point at which many scientists believe climate change will become dangerous – as early as 2050, a group of leading experts has warned. In a report called The Truth About Climate Change, they said many people seemed to think of global warming as “abstract, distant and even controversial”. But the planet is now heating up “much faster” than anticipated, said Professor Sir Robert Watson, a former chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and one of the authors of the report. http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/global-warming-truth-about-climate-change-dangerous-2c-a7337871.html Been thinking and saying the same things for over a decade. Maybe I'm a new age John the Baptist or an alien spy planted on the earth? lol



Comment on Unforced variations: Sep 2016 by Thomas

Sat, 01 Oct 2016 01:33:09 +0000

Global warming set to pass 2C threshold in 2050: report September 29, 2016 Signatories have submitted voluntary national pledges for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Those pledges, however, are "totally inadequate", the report said. "If governments are serious about trying to achieve even the 2 degree goal, they will have to double and re-double their efforts—now," Watson said. "I think it is fair to say that there is literally no chance of making the 1.5 C target," he added. Urgent steps needed to decarbonise the global economy include improving energy efficiency, switching to renewable energy production, and removal of fossil fuel subsidies, said the report, entitled "The truth about climate change." http://www.energylivenews.com/2016/09/30/world-on-track-to-reach-2c-warming-by-2050-scientists-warn/ http://www.ipbes.net/article/press-release-ipbes-elects-new-bureau-and-sir-robert-watson-chair



Comment on The Snyder Sensitivity Situation by David McGee

Fri, 30 Sep 2016 23:33:48 +0000

Thank you for this helpful post, Gavin. Just one small question: Am I right that the equation should be ~1 x S/3.7 W/m2 (rather than ~1 x S/3.7˚C as written), with 3.7 W/m2 representing the RF of a doubling of CO2?

[Response: No. The units are (1 W/m2) * (S ºC/2xCO2) / (3.7 (W/m2)/2xCO2) so it reduces to ºC. - gavin]




Comment on Unforced variations: Sep 2016 by Thomas

Fri, 30 Sep 2016 22:48:42 +0000

THURSDAY 29 SEPTEMBER 2016 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v6/n10/full/nclimate3103.html "Our findings confirm that climate change is already having an impact on parts of Australia," said Dr Abram from the Research School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science at ANU. "Antarctica and the Southern Ocean are remote but this region influences Australia's heat waves, affects whether our crops get the winter rainfall they need and determines how quickly our ocean levels rise." Winter rainfall in southwest Australia has declined by more than 20 per cent since the 1970s because of the shifting westerly rain belt, and Perth now relies on a desalination plant to supplement its water supplies. http://science.anu.edu.au/whats-on/all-news/australia-loses-vital-rain-climate-change-shifts-winds Another example of regional climate effects from AGW/CC. Of course the anecdotal knowledge about this has been obvious for well over a decade in both SW Western Australia and Tasmania. Farmers know from observation and experience what's going on long before anyone from the ANU pays attention, and decades before a politician would ... most of whom will happily ignore this science paper as well as all the others. Before this Paper the predominant wind shifts and lack of rain, which used to fall like clockwork, was not a secret nor unknown. Having a Paper confirm that definitively using science surely still helps (a little). Could it be that we will also get climate science papers confirming we have passed the non-return tipping point of the climate system 20 years after it happens? I suspect so. Which imo shows again that the problem to be solved here is not the quality climate science nor the scientists nor a lack of understanding of the climate system.



Comment on Unforced variations: Sep 2016 by Nemesis

Fri, 30 Sep 2016 22:08:49 +0000

Yeeez, the funny "elite" likes to give us the Truth bit by bit, you know :-): " 30.9.2016 - Scientists: Window for avoiding 1.5C global warming ‘closed’ " http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/06/29/scientists-window-for-avoiding-1-5c-global-warming-closed/ I got used to get the Truth from the funny "elite" bit by bit a long, long time ago already, so I am just glad, so glad, that I did not procreate. " 30.9.2016 - Climate Change: Most people alive today will witness its 'dangerous' effects in their lifetimes Most people alive today will witness the "dangerous" effects of global warming in their lifetimes, a group of leading scientists have warned. The earth is on track to warm up by 2C by 2050 unless governments at least double their efforts to limit greenhouse gas emissions, their report claims. Titled ‘the truth about climate change’, the report states that plans by almost 200 governments to cut greenhouse gases are not strong enough..." The Paris Climate Summit last December saw global leaders agree to try to limit global warming to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Before that, a 2C increase had been viewed by scientists as the point at which global warming becomes “dangerous”. However, this new report warns that the 1.5C target is already unrealistic. Robert Watson, a British-American scientist who was one of the study’s seven authors, told the Independent: "While the Paris Agreement on Climate Change is an important step in the right direction, what is needed is a doubling or tripling of efforts. “Without additional efforts by all major emitters, the 2C target could be reached even sooner.” This means that the majority of those alive today will be alive when global warming reaches this perceived dangerous level"." http://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/global-warming-most-people-alive-today-will-witness-the-serious-effects-of-temperauture-increase-in-a3357761.html



Comment on Unforced variations: Sep 2016 by Hank Roberts

Fri, 30 Sep 2016 21:45:51 +0000

https://climateimagination.asu.edu/everything-change/ Everything Change features twelve stories from our 2016 Climate Fiction Short Story Contest along with along with a foreword by science fiction legend and contest judge Kim Stanley Robinson and an interview with renowned climate fiction author Paolo Bacigalupi. Everything Change is free to download, read, and share