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Last Build Date: Wed, 20 Sep 2017 03:43:35 +0000

 



Comment on Impressions from the European Meteorological Society’s annual meeting in Dublin  by Dan DaSilva

Wed, 20 Sep 2017 03:43:35 +0000

Title by Keith L. Seitter: "Being as disciplined in our engagement with society as we are in our scientific research" If scientists wish to be disciplined in their engagement with society they should back away from the defense of the that which has no defense. Just call it crap and move on. The validity of your scientific studies does not depend on defending bad science. Be righteous my brothers and it will be given unto you.



Comment on Why extremes are expected to change with a global warming by Brian Dodge

Wed, 20 Sep 2017 02:38:31 +0000

Steve Case says: 18 Sep 2017 at 9:15 AM "Dr. Hansen should re-do his study using TMax if he wants to talk about summer temperatures." Been done (by others). Improved our knowledge of the interactions between water vapor, clouds, and aerosols. By the way, Hansen et al looked at Northern hemisphere temperatures, which is a somewhat larger dataset than just the Eastern US. "In contrast to the widespread global warming, the central and south central United States display a noteworthy overall cooling trend during the 20(th) century, with an especially striking cooling trend in summertime daily maximum temperature (Tmax) (termed the U.S. "warming hole"). Here we used observations of temperature, shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF), longwave cloud forcing (LWCF), aerosol optical depth and precipitable water vapor as well as global coupled climate models to explore the attribution of the "warming hole". We find that the observed cooling trend in summer Tmax can be attributed mainly to SWCF due to aerosols with offset from the greenhouse effect of precipitable water vapor." https://openi.nlm.nih.gov/detailedresult.php?img=PMC4221782_srep06929-f2&req=4 Attribution of the United States "warming hole": aerosol indirect effect and precipitable water vapor. Yu S, Alapaty K, Mathur R, Pleim J, Zhang Y, Nolte C, Eder B, Foley K, Nagashima T - Sci Rep (2014)



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Obs

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 23:00:18 +0000

NOAA TCHP ( http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html ) appears not to be updated for days > 9/9/2017. Any ideas?



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Mal Adapted

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 18:01:43 +0000

Scott Strough:
Grasslands on the other hand, can be a huge powerful pump of carbon into the stable fraction of soil. Many many tonnes per hectare.
Once the large-scale anthropogenic transfer of fossil carbon to the climatically active pool ceases, soil sequestration is theoretically an excellent way to draw that pool down again. Even with atmospheric CO2 capped, however, setting aside and sustainably managing enough grassland to draw it down at a useful rate and store it 'in perpetuity' would be at least as challenging, economically and politically, as reducing fossil carbon emissions to zero at a rate sufficient to avert global tragedy. Worse, the rise in atmospheric CO2 to date means the next several generations of humans will have adapted to a warmer world, making the choice of how far to bring GMST down again even more fraught. I'm glad I didn't have offspring.



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by MA Rodger

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 17:52:51 +0000

NOAA have also posted for August with an anomaly of +0.83ºC, identical to July and =3rd coolest month of the year-so-far. (This roughly mirrors GISTEMP). It is the 3rd warmest NOAA August on record after Aug 2016 (+0.90ºC) and Aug 2015 (+0.88ºC) ahead of Aug 2014 (+0.79ºC) & 2009 (+0.70ºC). For all months, Aug 2017 is the =26th warmest anomaly on the full NOAA record (GISTEMP =25th). Of the top warmest anomalies, very few are not from the last few years 2014-17, the five exceptions in the top thirty being two months from 2010 and single months from 2007, 1998 & 2013 (identical to GISTEMP bar a 2002 month replacing a 2013 month). The years ranked by Jan-Aug Ave below are the same years as in the equivalent GISTEMP table with almost identical rankings. (The annual rankings show a bit more difference fronm GISS.) ........ Jan-Aug Ave ... Annual Ave ..Annual ranking 2016 .. +1.01ºC ... ... ... +0.94ºC ... ... ...1st 2017 .. +0.88ºC 2015 .. +0.85ºC ... ... ... +0.90ºC ... ... ...2nd 2010 .. +0.75ºC ... ... ... +0.70ºC ... ... ...4th 2014 .. +0.72ºC ... ... ... +0.74ºC ... ... ...3rd 1998 .. +0.69ºC ... ... ... +0.63ºC ... ... ...8th 2007 .. +0.65ºC ... ... ... +0.61ºC ... ... ...11th 2005 .. +0.65ºC ... ... ... +0.66ºC ... ... ...6th 2002 .. +0.64ºC ... ... ... +0.60ºC ... ... ...13th 2013 .. +0.64ºC ... ... ... +0.67ºC ... ... ...5th 2009 .. +0.62ºC ... ... ... +0.64ºC ... ... ...7th



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Hank Roberts

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 15:26:52 +0000

https://quantpalaeo.wordpress.com/2017/09/18/pattern-obfuscation-of-ocean-ph/
Pattern obfuscation of ocean pH Posted on 18/09/2017 by richard telford I noticed that my blog had been cited by a couple of papers, so I went to have a look. Albert Parker has a paper in Nonlinear Engineering. I'm sure this journal wasn't chosen for the relevant expertise of the editors and usual pool of reviewers. More likely the converse: Parker (2016) is neither good nor original, a Gish gallop of a paper, recycling bad ideas from climate denialist blogs....



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Charles Hughes

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 05:39:26 +0000

Mal Adapted says: 16 Sep 2017 at 2:06 PM Russell: Killian says” look up Liebigs Law…” Always the only guy who knows anything, is our Killian. He seems not to imagine that when others of us say something, we rarely say everything we know. Still, some of his comments are good. Some are even new. Sadly, what is good is not new, while what is new is not good 8^(. Your last line is spot on. I used to enjoy reading killian's posts. Lately, not so much. That last one looked like a Thomas production.



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Victor

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 04:16:51 +0000

286 CCHolley says "Victor @280 'What we DO know is that sea levels have been steadily rising for well over one hundred years, long before CO2 could have become a major factor.' Wrong. CO2 has been a major factor since pre-industrialization and most certainly the last 100 years." A factor, yes -- a major factor, no. Actually it's more like 200 years: http://jonova.s3.amazonaws.com/graphs/sea-level/jevrejeva-sea-levels-1700-1800-1900-2000-global-2.gif



Comment on Why extremes are expected to change with a global warming by Victor

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 03:56:00 +0000

Rolling up my sleeves, I decided to look into the history of volcanic eruptions during some pertinent historic eras. Beginning with the Novarupta eruption of 1912 through the warming peak of 1940 is a period of 28 years. During that time, according to the Wikipedia records (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_large_volcanic_eruptions_of_the_20th_century), there were 20 "large eruptions," with a "Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI)" ranging from 4 through 6. Adding all the VEIs during that period we get a total of 86. For the previous 28 years, we find a total of only 16 major eruptions, with a VEI total of 63. Scratching my head here. Since the volcanic activity of the previous 28 years is less intense, in both numbers and explosivity, then where does the claim of LESS volcanic activity leading up to the peak of 1940 come from? Even if less volcanic activity were somehow able to increase warming (which makes no sense as far as I'm concerned), the claim would be moot since volcanic activity during the 28 year period of extreme warming was actually more than that during the previous 28 year period. Curioser and curioser.



Comment on Unforced Variations: Sep 2017 by Kevin McKinney

Tue, 19 Sep 2017 02:36:09 +0000

...and in related news, the UK Met calls the end of the 'slowdown', and relates it to a phase change in the PDO: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2017/a-pacific-flip-triggers-the-end-of-the-recent-slowdown The PDO video at the bottom of the page is worth a look.