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Climate science from climate scientists...



Last Build Date: Tue, 20 Feb 2018 03:45:04 +0000

 



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by Thomas

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 03:45:04 +0000

2018 CO2 ppm growth late february Now appears, all things being equal, that the second half, late Feb period is now heading towards ~409.30 ppm. IF this happens then it would place the back end of February at about +3.3 ppm above the 2017 Jan to Feb Avg of ~406. Not +4 ppm. That being said I have little confidence that it is reasonable to expect "all things being equal" at this particular point in time. So, wait and see for Feb and the rest of the year, and then wait and see right though 2019, and wash and repeat for 2020. That's BAU and that's what "all things being equal" typically looks like. Sad, but true.



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by Thomas

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 03:16:24 +0000

Summary of scientists of the basics on agw/cc in NC newspaper. This is quite above quality agw/cc communication to the public by scientists, imho http://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article200881589.html However, my issue however comes after the But ..... regarding choices. "But the most dire consequences of climate change are not inevitable." and but this means that every ton of carbon we do not release, because we choose renewable sources for our energy, or use energy more efficiently, or or stop destroying forests, makes the problem of global warming less severe. and especially this comment: In so doing, we choose what happens to our climate and we chose what sort of planet with bequeath to our children. --- OK well imho what they is totally false. Because WE collectively and to a great extent (99% of the time) do not in fact have a real choice in the matter. There are choices to do X or Y, obviously, but it is not WE who gets to make those choices. For only a very very tiny minority on this planet have the power, the authority, and the ability to make such choices. And that's a fact too. Naturally, many many people cannot see this as clearly as they could, in regard to what these scientists said above, ie "But the most dire consequences of climate change are not inevitable." I totally disagree about that unfounded belief, which I see as being quite delusional, or in other words another example of the Dunning Krugar effect (outside their area of expertise), and is seriously and glaringly Cognitive Dissonant. imho the very worst of known future consequences are inevitable. Remembering that I think their explanations as to what is happening re agw/cc now and it's scientific and real world observational basis is first class - one of the better simple short summaries I have read and which I believe a majority of "average" people in society would find easy to understand and accept as valid. "But" then they sell them a Lemon of False Hope and falsely claim those readers have choices when they in fact do not to the degree that those choices could ever make any difference to how they live their lives nor have any effect on lowering current or future CO2/e forcings and temperature increases accelerating to any "noticeable" degree which might make a difference. What do you think about this newspaper article by 'scientists'? Walter Robinson, professor of atmospheric sciences at NC State University, is a climate scientist. Lisa Falk is a geologist and teaches courses in Earth-system science at NC State. Justin Baumann is a doctoral student in marine sciences at the University of North Carolina Chapel Hill, who studies coral reefs. Read more here: http://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article200881589.html



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by nigelj

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 02:18:27 +0000

"You can’t solve problems like this if you ignore human nature. You have to use it to achieve your goals. Witness the Russia trolling attack on the US…they very effectively exploited already existing biases and fears to move things in the desired direction. They nudged." That's right, and calling people spammers and non quantitative thinkers or lying and ignorant, how well do you think that will go to "nudging things in the desired direction and persuading anyone of anything?" It ain't gonna work, and especially when its a false accusation. And there's a fine line between healthy positive and negative reinforcement, and the vile manipulation and appealing to the worst in people, coming from Putin and Trump.



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by Thomas

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 02:16:54 +0000

AGW/CC Impacts - Extreme Weather events Broome WA I recently posted link to science info regarding Rosby Cells/Polcar Vortex involved in these Cyclones http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-02-20/broome-smashes-annual-rainfall-record-after-less-than-two-months/9462962 eg Broome has officially endured its wettest year on record after more than two years' worth of rain fell on the Kimberley in the past two months. Tropical Cyclone Joyce in January, flooding less than three weeks later from a storm described as worse than a cyclone and then Tropical Cyclone Kelvin over the weekend have brought the rainfall total for the year so far to 1,502 millimeters, or 1.5 metres. That surpasses the previous record of 1,496mm set in (12 months of) 2000.



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by nigelj

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 01:35:40 +0000

Thomas @447 Thank's and you have an interesting history, and I hope your health improves. Overall I think you are one of the good guys fwiw. We agree I think on many issues, and sometimes we disagree strongly.That doesn't matter to me, adults have to be able to disagree without taking huge offence. But you must know that. In regard to MA Rodger, hes a scientist or possibly an engineer, just guessing. They are picky people and natural born sceptics, and have to be. People can't excuse blatant mistakes just for the sake of "solidarity with the cause". But he does get things confused a little sometimes. Nobody's perfect - me included. Im more of a generalist with a varied university background. I like joining the dots, the intersectionality thing. But I have a sceptical streak, hopefully the healthy sort. Maybe it sometimes goes wrong on me. Regarding Killian, I do see the wood for through the trees. I'm actually partly on board with the simple life idea, because I think its inevitable in some form either by choice, or it will be forced on humanity. But if people want to say we have to make huge 80% cuts to consumption, I think I have a right to ask for some reasonably robust proof, and not simply be called ignorant. There are times I think people deserve to be called idiots, but I mostly keep the thought to myself. Unmoderated websites just become shouting matches, and the focus slowly shifts from factual comment and interesting opinion, to crap. Its a tough one. A good shouting match does release tension, and Im no saint you should see what I say to my computer, but it can overtake internet threads. Likewise climate denialists should be locked up really, but I believe in freedom of speech, and I assume you do. How do we reconcile this? Man, its a frustrating one, but I come down on the side of free speech, gritting my teeth. But there's no place for blatant personal abuse and well off topic ranting. Its unpleasant and gets boring and distracting.



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by nigelj

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 01:01:43 +0000

Killian @445 The great thing about your page long posts is I have learned I don't need to read them past the first couple of sentences. Because you don't really say anything. "nigelj said Phlegm and gastric juices and effluent, all basting a goodly helping of hypocrisy!" I almost like the first part of that statement. Reminds me of the creature in alien. How does it now feel to be the recipient of the bile you give other people on a daily basis? All I expect is people to be able to justify their big claims with something of substance. This goes for Zebra as well. So who's a smart cooky eh? I'm not so sure its you.



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by Thomas

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 00:55:19 +0000

Bering sat view images 2017 v 2018 https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?action=dlattach;topic=2141.0;attach=97202



Comment on Forced Responses: Jan 2018 by Thomas

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 00:46:39 +0000

446 Mr. Know It All, I very much DID answer your question/s. You just do not like the answer. You have always had the FreeDumb to learn to answer such questions yourself. They really are simple questions anyway with quick easy answers. You also have the Freedumb to learn how to ask better questions. It's all on you Pal. Have you noticed my long-winded responses I often to do here? have you noticed how you never ever get a long detailed genuine response from me? That means something. What could that be? ;-)



Comment on Unforced variations: Feb 2018 by nigelj

Tue, 20 Feb 2018 00:28:26 +0000

Dan DaSilva @142 "Thanks for the reply, the worst thing is to be ignored. If we had a communist world government run by alarmists, climate change could be solved by force. The future of mankind would be secure, what do you think?" I think it's always nice to get a reply, something I always appreciate, however its not the biggest issue for me. I comment to be a bit thought provoking and hopefully constructive, rather than scream out for attention. I can play either game. Its a tricky balance to do both. Not getting a reply does not mean you are ignored. The trouble is communism is off topic and belongs more on forced responses! But very briefly here communism is normally taken where the state owns most of the means of production and normally communist states are dictatorships. I support neither, regardless of environmental issues. However I don't see some modest level of state ownership like in Scandinavia as communism. And the only thing holding some countries together are dictators. Life is not simplistic black and white.



Comment on The global CO2 rise: the facts, Exxon and the favorite denial tricks by nigelj

Mon, 19 Feb 2018 23:28:39 +0000

Al Bundy @206 "You have taught me much, Killian. You see, I see a lot of you in the self I’ve been actively working to discard" Me too. Some people subscribe to the New York shouting match school of communication, with its insults, authoritarianism and aggression. Please keep it in New York. Or at least be clever, playful and subtle with put downs. Like Graham Norton.