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Forex - EUR/USD, EUR/SGD Flows: ECB Noyer: Onus is on Greece; 1.3300 Options Fri, 10 Feb 2012 08:12:51 GMT Published at 07:52 (GMT) 10 Feb ECB/ BdF Christian Noyer said Greece situation must be resolved. Onus is on Greece, and Greece must accept that it needs to help itself, Other countries have made great efforts for Greece. Bank of France hold about 2,500 tons of gold. Signs of recovery already exist. ECB is doing everything to ensure liquidity. French economy is not in recession. French growth is "flat", economy on verge of redbound. - Europe 1 Radio - BBG. Separately, French December Industrial
Technical Major Currencies Report Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:43:40 GMT EUR/USD The pair couldn't hit SMA 100 and started to show a slight bearish tendency as seen on the provided daily graph. Meanwhile, trading continued above the pivotal support of 1.3230 and also above SMA 50. The bearish picture will not come back into focus unless we witness a daily closing below the aforesaid level. The contrarian between the above mentioned factors forces us to stay aside over intraday basis until an actionable setup presents itself to pinpoint the upcoming big
Asian stock markets are under pressure this morning Fri, 10 Feb 2012 07:24:01 GMT Key news Eurozone Finance Ministers late Thursday decided to hold back aid for Greece until new austerity measures have passed the Greek Parliament. The tough stance on Greece has derailed the otherwise strong sentiment in the US and Asian stock markets are under pressure this morning. Markets Overnight Yesterday the market cheered after an austerity agreement had finally been reached by Greek politicians. Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos arrived in Brussels last night for the
Forex - Chart NZD/USD Update: Deeper setback in focus Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:59:15 GMT Published at 06:24 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb NZD/USD Daily Settling back from the .8407 mid-wk high and break of the .8300 level expose the .8285 support to retest. Failure here will confirm a small top pattern on daily chart and triggers stronger pullback towards the .8249/30, support and channel area. Res is at .8320/30 and .8380 ahead of .8407 high. [P.L] R5: .8500 figure R4: .8460 * 5 Sep high R3: .8407 * 8 Feb high R2: .8378/80 9, 3 Feb highs R1: .8320/30 intraday level S1: .8285 * 6 Feb low
Forex - Chart USD/CNY 1-Yr Update: Intraday trade exposed corrective strength Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:44:07 GMT Published at 06:08 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD/CNY 1-Yr NDF Daily 06:07 GMT - Spurred by the bullish implication of Piercing-pattern last session, intraday trade is seeing gain above 6.2711 resistance and expect further recovery strength to eye next hurdle at 6.2810. Only move below 6.2505 support to help bears regain focus towards strong support at 6.2470. [W.T] R5: 6.3066 18 Jan high R4: 6.3015 13 Jan low R3: 6.2971 * 23 Jan high R2: 6.2905 * 24/25 Jan highs R1: 6.2810 * 6 Feb high S1: 6.2655
Forex - Chart USD/THB Update: Intraday trade exposed recovery strength Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:37:51 GMT Published at 05:55 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD/THB Daily 05:56 GMT - Intraday trade exposed recovery strength with prices swinging towards the higher end of Wednesday's 30.690-30.880 range and need clearance above 30.880 to warrant call for stronger rebound. On the downside, slippage below 30.690 support will see bears back on firm footing. [W.T] R5: 31.13 31 Jan high R4: 31.03 27 Jan low R3: 30.98 * 6/7 Feb highs R2: 30.88 8 Feb high R1: 30.85 previous congestion lows S1: 30.77 intraday level S2:
Forex - Chart USD/KRW Update: Intraday trade cracking the 1123.90 resistance Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:31:50 GMT Published at 05:38 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD/KRW Daily 05:39 GMT - Intraday trade exposed strength with prices cracking the 1123.90 resistance and need a sustained lift above latter to confirm a bullish breakout of 1-week double-bottom and signal room for stronger correction towards next target at 1131.00.[W.T] R5: 1140.2 * 18 Jan low R4: 1137.3 * 20 Jan high R3: 1133.0 20 Jan low R2: 1131.0 * 1 Feb high R1: 1124.5 1 Feb low, gap S1: 1117.8 intraday level S2: 1114.8 * 6 Feb low S3: 1110.2 * 4
Crude oil closed higher on Thursday following Tuesday's key reversal up Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:36:39 GMT ENERGY CRUDE OIL closed higher on Thursday following Tuesday's key reversal up. The high range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bullish signalling that a low might be in or is near. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to confirm that a short term low has been posted. If it renews January's decline, December's low crossing is the next downside target. NATURAL GAS closed lower on Thursday and the low range close sets the
Asia Session: No deal for Greece... yet Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:19:45 GMT The RBA cut its growth and inflation forecasts for 2012 as uncertainty surrounding economic conditions offshore flow into the domestic economy. On Tuesday, the bank decided to keep interest rates at 4.25%, surprising a market that was looking for a 0.25% cut, however this recent report is more dovish than expected which means economists might get there cut next month. Australia’s 2012 growth forecast is now 3.5%, down from the RBA’s November estimate of 4%. The bank’s 2012 inflation forecast
Forex - Hong Kong Flows: USD/HKD choppy; residential land auction misses estimates Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:21:31 GMT Published at 05:32 (GMT) 10 Feb Some choppy movements in USD/HKD, as pair bounced towards 7.7565 in the morning session after slipping briefly below 7.7545 in overnight trades as markets bought on dips. Losses in equities also helped keep pair supported. HSI last seen down 0.6%. Back home, some focus on the latest residential land auction, where a Tuen Mun site was sold at a price below surveyors' estimates, highlighting the softer investment appetite in the property sector. The correction in
Eur/yen, stay long, just the start of the gains Fri, 10 Feb 2012 06:16:22 GMT In the Feb 1st email on eur/yen, said want to be long but with risk for further ranging nearby, to wait for a break above the bearish trendline from Nov 1st before entering. Broke above there on Tue (then at 101.30, closed at 101.75), getting long. The market has rallied further since, breaking above the Jan high at 102.20, toward 104.00/15 (50% retracement from the Oct high at 111.35), and potentially much higher ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, the market is seen within wave 3 or C
Gold prices fell on Thursday Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:45:53 GMT Market Commentary Key Notes: Greek political leaders concluded a long-delayed deal on reforms and austerity measures to secure an international bailout and avoid a disorderly default. In U.S., initial jobless claims dropped unexpectedly to 358,000 in the latest sign of recovery in the U.S. labor market. Today, U.S. will release University of Michigan / Thomson Reuters report, with consensus expecting the sentiment reading to drop from 75 to 74.5. The lower expectation factored in the results
Forex - Chart USD/INR Update: Corrective upmove extending Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:39:56 GMT Published at 05:34 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD/INR Daily 04:16 GMT - Corrective upmove extending within sight of the strong resistance at 49.820 and with daily MACD poised for a positive cross-over, break of the latter will expose more upside potential. It would take a slippage below last session's low of 49.200 to reverse current recovery. [W.T] R5: 50.405 23 Jan high R4: 50.245 * 25 Jan high R3: 50.060 19 Jan low R2: 49.920 24 Jan low R1: 49.820 * 27 Jan high S1: 49.200 9 Feb low S2: 48.980 8
Gilt futures dropped to a 2-month low Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:33:12 GMT Market Commentary US Equities: U.S. stocks advanced for a third successive day after Greece reached a deal to clinch a financial bailout, but investors were vigilant after weeks of advances. Technology counters, led by Apple Inc, lifting the Nasdaq index and were the yesterday’s strongest sector. PepsiCo Inc dropped 3.7% after the beverage maker forecast below expected 2012 earnings and said it would reduce thousands of jobs. LinkedIn, networking service, rose 6.3% after the bell on Q4 2011
Technicals Non-Confirming in Narrow Up-Session Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:25:48 GMT The stock market indices had an up-day today, but the technicals were not very confirming, and did lead to concern here. The day started out with a big pop to the upside. They then pulled back sharply, held secondary support, and then came on with a bang as shorts were getting squeezed higher. They reached new multi-week rally highs, getting up to 2567 and change on the Nasdaq 100, and just over 1354 on the S&P 500. In the afternoon, they consolidated, backed and filled, and pulled back in
Apple Due for Profit-Taking Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:13:22 GMT Apple (AAPL) has rocketed into a French Curve upside vertical assault right to its upper channel zone between 480.00 and 488.00, which should put a lid on the current up-leg from the Jan 24 low at 419.00. Allowing for a 1% overshoot beyond the upper channel line at 488 -- which puts it into the 492-94 area -- my work argues that some profit-taking in AAPL is warranted "up here." A decline should press the stock towards 460.00.
Forex - India Flows: USD/INR swings up, bond; Dec IP due shortly Fri, 10 Feb 2012 05:33:50 GMT Published at 04:52 (GMT) 10 Feb USD/INR was squeezed up to 49.72 soon after the opening bell on strong onshore demand (vs yest close at 49.49), with oilers/importers also likely to avail of rupee's recent rally to fulfill payments. Pair has since settled within 49.65-49.70, with pressure to the upside as EUR/USD rally loses steam and shaky risk-appetite. Breach of 49.82 will expose 49.92 tech barriers. Benchmark bond yields meanwhile were softer at 8.24% ahead of USD 2.4bn debt sale later
Aussie declined after the RBA's Statement Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:16:36 GMT All of the foreign currency futures but the Aussie consolidated in the Far East after news that the Greek officials agreed on the terms of the lifeline from the Eurozone, even though nothing was signed. The Eurozone is not in a better place, but in the short run, we don’t have to watch more news about Greece. In a few weeks we will see the status of the Portuguese and Italians crises. The Aussie declined after the RBA’s Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy noted the central bank had room to
Greece Austerity Budget goes to the Vote Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:08:56 GMT U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the market sentiment improved on the Greece announcement that there had been an agreement between the EU/IMF and a new Austerity budget to be now voted on over the weekend. Weekly Jobless Claims fell to 358k and is another solid release adding to the improving jobs argument. The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD traded at fresh highs briefly above 1.3300 on the back of the Greece breakthrough and ECB President Draghi comments that there were tentative signs of stabilization to
Forex - Australia: What's Priced In- RBA Expectations (OIS) 10 Feb 2012 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 04:02:13 GMT Published at 03:57 (GMT) 10 Feb
Forex - EUR/USD, EUR/AUD Flows: ECB can do more to buy bonds in secondary markets - Fitch Fri, 10 Feb 2012 03:56:56 GMT Published at 03:53 (GMT) 10 Feb DJ: Fitch's Stringer on the wires saying that the he feels the ECB can do more to buy bonds in secondary markets. He also expects some move towards mutualization of Eurozone debt. Unlike previous days, EUR is still trading at relatively high levels despite failing to break above its 100 day MA yesterday. Some short covering in EUR crosses was seen this morning, with EURAUD trading to a high of 1.2368. The market was generally expecting a more dovish statement
Forex - USD/JPY, USD index Flows: Japan PM Noda to meet frequently with head of BOJ Fri, 10 Feb 2012 03:51:27 GMT Published at 03:34 (GMT) 10 Feb Japan's PM Yoshiniko Noda said on Friday he will meet frequently with the head of the Bank of Japan so the central bank can take decisive monetary policy steps at an appropriate time. "I am in agreement with the BOJ governor that we will actively have unofficial discussions. We'd like to increase the frequency of such discussions and exchange opinions so that the Bank of Japan will be able to make monetary policy in a decisive manner and at an appropriate time."
Forex - Chart AUD/NZD Update: Under pressure Fri, 10 Feb 2012 03:13:23 GMT Published at 03:07 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb AUD/NZD Daily Under pressure as consolidation below the 1.2964 high seeing slippage under the 1.2900 level to expose the 1.2889/70 support. Failure here will return focus to the downside for retest of the 1.2830/26 lows. Break see resumption of the fall from 1.3275 high. [P.L] R5: 1.3092 2 Jan low R4: 1.3055/60 * 19 Dec, 28 Nov lows R3: 1.3028/35 25, 17 Jan highs R2: 1.2990 * 8-wk upper channel R1: 1.2964 7 Feb high S1: 1.2889 8 Feb low S2: 1.2870 18 Jan
Forex - Chart USD/IDR Update: Decline staged last session checked by strong support at 8880 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 02:04:22 GMT Published at 01:53 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD/IDR Daily 01:45 GMT - Another attempt to break the lower end of 2-week plus consolidation at 8880 failed and this is enforcing the strength of this support with prices settling at the mid-session of the wider 8880-9045 band. Approach of the 9045 resistance should attract strong selling. [W.T] R5: 9140 * 13 Jan low R4: 9100 * 6 Jan low R3: 9063 30 Dec low R2: 9045 * 25 Jan high R1: 9005 3 Feb high S1: 8880 * 25 Jan low S2: 8820 31 Oct low S3: 8795 * 28
Forex - Chart USD/PHP Updates: Bears extending decline despite oversold daily tools Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:31:48 GMT Published at 01:22 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD / PHP Daily 01:18 GMT - Despite the oversold posture seen on daily technical tools, bears are still extending decline and targeting the strong support at 41.900 and expect the latter to attract strong profit-taking from existing shorts. An upside break of 42.380 resistance will kick-start corrective upmove. [W.T] R5: 42.75 30 Jan low R4: 42.70 6 Feb high R3: 42.63 7 Feb high R2: 42.53 28 Oct low R1: 42.38 8 Feb high S1: 42.08 9 Feb low S2: 41.90 ** 1
Forex - Chart USD/MYR Update: Still in corrective move Fri, 10 Feb 2012 01:22:23 GMT Published at 01:01 (GMT) 10 Feb 10 Feb USD / MYR Daily 00:06 GMT - Corrective upmove further boosted by the positive cross-over seen on daily stochastic and risks further gain towards 3.0270/0350 resistances. The overall bearish outlook remains bearish and expect current recovery to attract sellers and break of 2.9950 support will see bears back on strong footing. [W.T] R5: 3.0600 * 30 Jan high R4: 3.0410 31 Oct low R3: 3.0350 * 2 Feb high R2: 3.0270 3 Feb high R1: 3.0150 9 Feb high S1: 2.9990
Forex - Chart NZD/USD Update: Settling back, support at .8285, .8249 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:46:32 GMT Published at 23:39 (GMT) 09 Feb 10 Feb NZD/USD Daily Settled into range below the .8400 level with support at .8321/14 area then the .8285 higher low. Failure here to trigger a small top and see stronger pullback towards the 9-wk channel support at .8249. Break here gets deeper correction underway. Resistance at .8380 then .8407 high to cap for now. [P.L] R5: .8542 1 Sep high R4: .8500 figure R3: .8460 * 5 Sep high R2: .8407 * 8 Feb high R1: .8378/80 9, 3 Feb highs S1: .8314 7 Feb low S2:
Forex - Chart EUR/AUD Update: Still in corrective upmove Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:38:41 GMT Published at 23:32 (GMT) 09 Feb 10 Feb EUR/AUD Daily 23:10 GMT - Corrective upmove from 1.2127 low is still in play and would like to see a sustained push above the 1.2320/36 resistances to garner upside impetus to 1.2416. Failure to clear 1.2336 and a setback below 1.2263 support would indicate shift of focus towards downside. [W.T] R5: 1.2504 6/9 Jan highs R4: 1.2475 * 30 Jan high R3: 1.2416 31 Jan high R2: 1.2336 1 Feb high R1: 1.2320 * 3 Feb high S1: 1.2263 9 Feb low S2: 1.2226 8 Feb low
UK and European Interest Rate Decisions Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:22:10 GMT U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the positive momentum continued into Asia and Europe but stocks in the US failed to extend the recent rally as Greece negotiations staggered along and profit takers emerged. There was no major data out overnight with the market relative quiet ahead of the two central bank meetings today. The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD attempted to break strong resistance at 1.3280 but dipped on news that critical debt negotiations had stalled. The latest stumbling block is the pension
The appetite for risk improved on Thursday Thu, 09 Feb 2012 23:17:54 GMT The appetite for risk improved on Thursday, when the Greeks won the game of extracting a lifeline from the Eurozone without any real commitment. While the Greek officials agreed on the terms of the deal, nothing was signed, which all but assures that Greece will fail again to leave up to its promises. In a few weeks we will see whether the Portuguese and Italians mastered this game as well. I had been looking for a medium-term peak on Wednesday, but the quasi-success in Europe and the
NY Session: Risk stabilizes amid central bank meetings, Greek austerity deal Thu, 09 Feb 2012 22:15:25 GMT Sentiment was moderately higher after Greek leaders agreed on an austerity package ahead of a meeting between EU finance ministers. The dollar is mostly weaker against the majors with the exception of the JPY, AUD, and NZD as stocks and Treasury yields advance. Key central banks made policy announcements this morning with the Bank of England maintain rates at 0.50% and expanding its asset purchase target by 50B£ to 325B£ as expected while the European Central Bank kept rates on hold at 1.00%
EUR/USD: The pair finished the session higher Thu, 09 Feb 2012 16:50:44 GMT EUR/USD The pair finished the session higher following reports that Greek politicians have reached an austerity deal. In addition to that, although the ECB kept the benchmark borrowing rates unchanged at 1.00%, Draghi said that the governing council did not discuss rate change and that the stress in the financial markets has diminished due to monetary policy measures. As a result, the pair managed to climb back towards 1.3300 level, while EUR/GBP finished the session little changed at 0.8400.
The markets ended higher on Friday Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:59:32 GMT Markets The markets ended higher on Friday as employment numbers blue past expectatuins and other economic news also helped stocks see highs not seen since May 2008. The Dow rose 156.82 points to close at 12,862.23. This was the DJIA highest close in almost 3 and 1/2 years. The S&P 500 rose 1.46 percent, to finish at 1,344.90. The Nasdaq jumped 45.98 points to close at 2,905.66. It has not been this high since the tech bubble of 2000. DJIA CHART FOREX The Euro leaders are playing chicke
ECB Monetary Policy Meeting to Set Today's Trading Tone; S&P 500 Continues to Pressure 1350 Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:21:00 GMT The Euro continues to press higher ahead of today’s ECB monetary policy meeting where most of the attention is going to be placed on the statements released at the press conference after the meeting. The extent to which the ECB will be involved in the final Greek debt swap agreement is the main issue, given that markets are not expecting any changes to the base interest rate in the Eurozone. Recent price activity in the Euro is indicative of a generally optimistic tone so it looks
The Asia/Pacific stock indexes closed mostly lower Thu, 09 Feb 2012 12:03:09 GMT The appetite for risk is selectively on the rise ahead of the US open, despite another Greek failure, which is the norm. Greek leaders failed again to agree on a reform and austerity program, so the Greek Finance Minister will go to the country's financial backers with an incomplete deal. As I have warned you repeatedly, Greece will not change its ways; consequently, the Greek game is to delay “negotiations” ad nauseum and then, when its creditors moved from revolted to incredulous to tired, |
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