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The Disciplined Investor



Investment Disciplines and Timely Advice.The Disciplined Investor is all about you, your money and the markets. We will discuss the most relevant topics that are affecting your money and look for good planning ideas. Stocks and markets will be covered and



Last Build Date: Wed, 28 Sep 2016 13:38:55 +0000

Copyright: 2008 + The Disciplined Investor
 



DHUnplugged #331: We’ve Been Smeckledorfed

Wed, 28 Sep 2016 08:11:00 +0000

Twitter (TWTR) rumored to be up for sale, Facebook (FB) video ad controversy and the continuing saga with Wells Fargo (WFC) are in focus. Also, we look at the latest takeaways from the first Presidential debate. Crude oil surging again after some comments that a production freeze will happen – then sinks, then surges. Markets […](image)



TDI Podcast: Listener Q&A (#477)

Sun, 25 Sep 2016 21:22:12 +0000

In this episode we focus on listener questions.  From concerns about the Fed to what investments may be most appropriate for a portfolio – we help to shed some light on what you are asking… Of course the latest Fed decision as well as the Bank of Japan’s stimulus tweaks are discussed along with some […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/7waqFwNNHi8/tdi_episode477.mp3




DHUnplugged #330: The 11th Sector

Wed, 21 Sep 2016 07:51:00 +0000

A fun week lies ahead for Central Bank fixated traders and investors. More terrorism on U.S. soil – what to make of this and how does that impact the U.S. elections? Another tech hardware announcement that has been long awaited – comes and goes. Is this going to be a game-changer? The S&P’s 11th sector, […](image)



TDI Podcast: A Frank Look at Curzio Research (#476)

Sun, 18 Sep 2016 16:58:15 +0000

Guest, Frank Curzio and Andrew discuss some of the speakers and topics from the recent Delivering Alpha conference. Frank literary had front row seats and gathered some great information that he shares. We also talk about the recent Apple (AAPL) meeting and release of new hardware, markets, the economy as well as Frank’s an update […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/HpwRg3aK0ec/tdi_episode476.mp3




DHUnplugged #329: Switch Flipped

Wed, 14 Sep 2016 07:22:00 +0000

Last week we discussed that volatility and volume could increase as traders are back to the trading desks – summer is over and now we may see trading volume pick up as there is plenty of news that may move markets. And right on cue… Bonds have been under pressure as yields are starting to […](image)



TDI Podcast: A Warning About Fixed Income Investments (#475)

Sun, 11 Sep 2016 20:06:58 +0000

Markets had a bad week as information was digested from Fed speakers as well as the ECB. Not much of a surprise here as there has been too much range-bound complacency building for weeks. The lack of central bank support was only part of the reason for the sell-off. Listen-in as we go through some […](image)


Media Files:
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DHUnplugged #328: Hakuna Matata Markets

Wed, 07 Sep 2016 07:17:00 +0000

Back to the trading desks – summer is over and now we may see trading volume pick up as there is plenty of news that may move markets. ISM manufacturing and services reports point to a slowdown while markets remain calm and investors ready to buy any dip. Markets now seem to be in a […](image)



TDI Podcast: High Probability Trading with Carley Garner (#474)

Sun, 04 Sep 2016 13:18:12 +0000

Carley Garner is our guest as we delve into the topic of futures and commodities. Carley helps us better understand some of the basic and more advance features of trading oil, grains and equity futures. In addition, we look at what beginners need to know about trading this volatile area of markets – before they […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/XSPfncUGR8Q/tdi_episode474.mp3




DHUnplugged #327: Contra-Dick-Shuns

Wed, 31 Aug 2016 07:15:00 +0000

It was quite the week. First, there was the Fed’s Vice Chair talking up a rate hike – just after Janet Yellen provided a rather dovish speech. Then contrary to what Bill Ackman told the world about Carl Ichan looking to sell his large stake in Herbalife (HLF) – only to announce after the close that he bought another 2.5 million shares. To top it off, Iran said they will pump as much oil as possible, even after the Saudi’s talked up a production freeze. But wait… now we find out that Saudi Arabia pumped the most oil they ever have over the last few weeks. (oil fell on all of this production news. In this episode we get down to the real stories on all of this and more… Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Markets in wait-and-see mode. Coming up this week – THE EMPLOYMENT REPORT The Jackson Hole gathering – once again, Yellen has slightly hawkish headline and underneath ultra-dovish – Vice Chair Fisher upset markets with his speech saying that rate hike this year possible. (that move markets lower for most of the day Friday – finished with slight loss) – Yellen noted that there could be another $2 trillion available for bond purchases if any economic shock.. On the hints of a rise in rates and with the employment report on the horizon – the USD is rising against major currency basket – just crossed above the 50 day moving average – USD Chart Herbalife (HLF): This is fun… Ackman comes out Friday morning with news that Jeffries approached him about selling a large block – they were shopping it. Ackman said it was Ichans shares and that he was selling because Ichan knows the company is “toast”. – Shares down all day on the news.. – After the close, Ichan announces that he bought 2.5 million shares of HLF to increase his position on Friday. Said that Ackman has no idea what he is talking about – shares pop 4% after hours. – Ichan game to break Ackman? – New complaint: After U.S. multi-level marketing company Herbalife settled a probe of its sales practices with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission last month, top executives assured investors that the company would be able to thrive under the new rules. JCD – Massive Tweeting lately? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Bitcoin Poll Results – Click below Bitcoin Poll Results Mylan Labs (MYLN) in the hot seat after they increased the price of the life saving EpiPen. That caught the interest of Hillary Clinton who put out a public hand-slap and promise to go after the greedy biotech/healthcare industry. – A day later Mylan came out with a new plan to provide end users a coupon for up to $300 on the generic to make it more affordable. – Supposedly, Mylan only takes in $275 on each two pack – even though the retail price is over $650… – Price was $100 for two-pack in 2009 (Explain why price is going up?) Regarding Vaping: “Our goal for Japan is to switch every consumer we have to this,” said Paul Riley, who joined Philip Morris in Sydney in 1988 and became its Japan unit’s president last September. “For me, it’s like a no-brainer. The biggest thing is we know that smoking kills. If we’ve got an alternative to that, that’s a pretty good reason to switch.” Google is moving onto Uber Technologies Inc.’s turf with its own ride-sharing service in San Francisco that would help commuters carpool at far cheaper rates, according to a person familiar with the matter, jumping into a booming but fiercely competitive market. – News that Uber is not profitable in the U.S. – how is that possible? Love the Show? Making some $$ from the Weekly Stock ideas? Then how about a Donation? Current CTP – Twitter (TWTR) DHUnplugged CTP Cu[...]



TDI Podcast: Naked Spreads and Strangles with Kirk Du Plessis (#473)

Sun, 28 Aug 2016 22:10:28 +0000

Naked Spreads and Strangles – it doesn’t get much sexier that that. Yes, we are talking about options – but don’t be afraid as our guest, Kirk Du Plessis of OptionAlpha walks us through some “complex” strategies that are really much simpler that you think. We discuss spreads, strangles, condors and other ways to profit […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/dmVjgpe4pHw/tdi_episode473.mp3




DHUnplugged #326: Mayo’s Slippery Slope

Wed, 24 Aug 2016 07:15:00 +0000

OPEC is at it again – trying to rescue the price of oil by scare tactics and promises of “potential” production freeze. Unfortunately, while the Saudi oil minister says one thing, IRAQ and IRAN say another. New home sales in the U.S .are on on fire as interest rates are near record lows. Meanwhile the housing market in London appears to be imploding. Friday brings another round of Fed talk with Janey Yellen headlining at the Jackson Hole economic confab. Is there any reason to believe that she will be the slight bit hawkish? Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Markets back to sideways chop with buyers still absorbing selling. Can be seen by a few technical readings that there is distribution, but buyers are there to keep prices up. Looks like there is some magnet to the 2,200 level on the S&P that someone wants to tag. (Now just a few points away) – What will Impressive : July New Home Sales 654K vs 580K Briefing.com consensus; M/M change +12.4% Coming Friday – Janet Yellen will be speaking at the annual Jackson Hole confab. Most are expecting more dovish talk, even with several key Fed members stating that a rate hike this year is very possible. (is Gold and Silver in play ?) Oil – Over the weekend, IRAQ said that they are looking to ramp up production. Oil had one of the best weeks in a long time after Saudi oil minister said that they a production freeze may be something that could be in the cards. (BS Meter alert) – On the news, oil slid 3% – – API data showed a build of 4.46 mln mln barrels of oil for the week ended Aug 19, compared to last week’s draw of 1.0 mln barrels. – If OPEC continues to cry wolf – they will be on a oil soaked slippery slope that could crash prices Bitcoin – had a very interesting conversation regarding Bitcoin on TDI Podcast – want to know from audience/listeners: Is Bitcoin a viable currency – now and in the future (poll on DH Sidebar) Best Buy (BBY) blows away the earnings and revenue estimates – stock up 15% – Best Buy beats by $0.14, beats on revs; guides Q3 EPS in-line, revs above consensus; raises FY17 profit guidance  (32.80) — Is this possibly due to lack of smartphone buying – people have money to spend on something other than iPhone? Did we discuss? The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission is looking into whether a San Francisco-based food technology startup broke the law by not disclosing that it was buying its own vegan mayonnaise from stores, which made the product appear to be more successful than it was, according to people familiar with the matter. The agency is trying to determine whether Josh Tetrick’s Hampton Creek Inc. improperly recognized revenue from purchases made with company money. (Is this any different from share buyback to goose profits?) President Barack Obama visits Baton Rouge, Louisiana, to tour flood-damaged areas and meet with emergency officials. Look at who is taking our ideas – St Louis Fed – FredCast [LINK] FREDcast “economic forecasting game from the St. Louis Fed. FREDcast players give their best predictions for four important economic indicators: GDP, employment, unemployment, and the consumer price index. Forecasts are then compared with the actual release numbers and scored for accuracy. Players can judge their performance by looking at their rankings within leagues or among all FREDcast users. “ DOJ sent a memo – they want to shut down private prisons (GEO), (CXW) – stocks tumble then recover a bit. Love the Show? Making some $$ from the Weekly Stock ideas? Then how about a Donation? Announcing the Winner of  – Shake Shack CTP *** NEW INTERACTIVE CHARTS *** DHUnplugged CTP Cup for DJIA (DIA) ANNOUNCI[...]



TDI Podcast: World of MoneyCraft with David Ackerman (#472)

Sun, 21 Aug 2016 15:28:27 +0000

Guest: David Ackerman gives us some important insight into the world of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.  With all of the recent news regarding hacks of the system, is this a viable currency (now and in the future)? Not much in the way of economics this week, however coming up this Friday – Yellen will be speaking […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/jewP4HuvsZk/tdi_episode472.mp3




DHUnplugged #325 – Don’t Raise the Bridge, Lower The River

Wed, 17 Aug 2016 07:22:00 +0000

Now that central banks are starting to get the point that more of the same is not working, they are looking to change their targets. Markets slip from all-time highs as China and U.S. economic data softens. Inflation tame, GDP slow, just another day at the eco-office. Many of the well-known hedge funds are dumping Apple (AAPL) while Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is buying. Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Market volumes are anemic, but buyers still pushing in as they are in TINA mode. THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE Twitter (TWTR) – Was this genius? Twitter in talks to have Twitter on Apple TV… With NFL stream does that mean that Apple TV will have NFL streaming? – Is this end run around NFL? Stock now over $20 /share… — Twitter Inc. is offering about a quarter of the space at its San Francisco headquarters complex for sublease, adding to a growing amount of excess offices available in the city as the technology industry cools. About 78,800 square feet (7,320 square meters) is listed for sublease on the seventh floor of 1355 Market St., a renovated 1930s furniture mart, and 104,850 square feet is available along three floors in an adjacent building at One Tenth St., according to marketing materials from Cresa, a commercial real estate firm. GoPro (GPRO) share on the move since their latest earnings announcement. Up ~ 50% since the lows in July. Sustainable? Chart looks as if there are some open air levels that could continue to squeeze shorts. Twilio (TWLO) – Recent IPO – UP UP UP –  See chart Twilio Chart Don’t raise the bridge – Lower the River….Fed’s Williams says considering raising or replacing 2% inflation target; reiterates need for fiscal policies; says central banks should target nominal GDP not inflation (More dovish than he has been as he discusses removing the 2% inflation target, suggesting the Fed is content with overshooting this target to drive growth) U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in July on falling gasoline costs, but solid gains in industrial output and home building suggested a pickup in economic activity that could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. TrimTabs Investment Research reported today that announced stock buybacks in earnings season through Monday, August 15 have fallen to the lowest level since the summer of 2012, averaging just 3.3 for $1.8 billion daily. – “Buyback activity has been disappointing in earnings season,” said David Santschi, chief executive officer of TrimTabs.  “The reluctance to pull the trigger on share repurchases suggests corporate leaders are becoming less enthusiastic about what they see ahead.” ** September – murmurs that there may be some backtracking to markets that is followed with an uptick. Several seasonality indicators showing it could be a tough month.. ** At a meeting – heard about the “Year 7 Cycle” – years ending with 7 seem to be tough for markets (2007, 1987, 1977. 1937) – However that is not true – 1987 actually was an up year and so was 2007 – maybe some weaker returns, but this is reason not to get too caught up in just what someone says. Japan’s Economic Growth Slows as Business Spending Slumps – GDP misses estimates and now there is even more evidence that the Abeonomics plan is not what it was cracked up to be. – YEN – Falls below $100 in overnight trade Tuesday (99.50) then saw some selling – possible BOJ intervention. Now Yen is up 18% YTD In a sign that investors are content with passive investing: Billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones on Tuesday laid off roughly five dozen employees, or about 15 percent of his workforce, [...]



TDI Podcast: Vitaliy Katsenelson – Humility and Patience (#471)

Sun, 14 Aug 2016 22:22:36 +0000

Guest: Vitaliy Katsenelson helps us to see what exactly is involved in the concept of value investing – it may not be exactly what you were thinking. Crude surges as the Ministers cry wolf again, is this anything more that another Hail Mary? Markets ease from all-time highs as economic data soft as big box […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/TIDA4AzJM_g/tdi_episode471.mp3




DHUnplugged #324: The 3-Day Workweek

Wed, 10 Aug 2016 07:25:00 +0000

Employment numbers keep on showing signs of a strong economy. On the other hand, productivity showed a massive drop. Market continue to creep higher – even in light of valuations and headwinds as the search for yield continues. Olympic update! What is the deal with advertisers dropping Facebook? And much more … Click HERE for Show Notes and Links New highs! markets continue to creep higher after a breakout post employment report. The employment report came in strong with 255k added to payrolls. The official unemployment number now stands at 4.9%. The average workweek was steady at 34.5 hours with a slight uptick to average hourly earnings.  Employment Chart With the employment report – markets surged – the S&P 500 hit an all-time high after floating sideways for the past few weeks. – Productivity is down hard last month and inventories on the rise. What does that portend? Walmart is buying Jet.com for $3 billion. Now that is going to be interesting competition for Amazon. Trump’s economic plan recently announced: No American company will pay more than 15% in its income; reducing taxes from 35% to 15%. Will cut regulations ‘massively’. Lower business tax will kill corporate inversions. Plans to eliminate the estate tax. Proposed reducing income tax to 3 levels not 7 (12%, 25%, and 33%); Prior high for this was 25%. Will target tax-specific loop holes in tax laws. Says no family will have to pay the death tax. Says will kill all ‘illegal and over reaching’ executive orders. Wants to renegotiate the NAFTA deal; says if U.S. does not get what it wants then he will walk away from the deal. Says will eliminate the Trans Pacific Trade Pact. Reiterates he would repeal Obamacare. Olympics: A Sky News reporter tweeted that an Olympic kayaker on a practice run capsized after hitting a sofa. The Olympic organizers are currently investigating. (Water where they race is very polluted) What is with the cupping ? Plenty of Olympic athletes have the red/purple circles from cupping procedures. Dutch gymnast Yuri van Gelder has been expelled from the Olympics for “gravely” violating team rules by going out for a night of drinking in Rio after qualifying for the finals of the rings event, the Dutch team said. Medal count? [LINK] 3-day workweek – Carlos Slim (Mexico’s richest person) – “It’s important that people don’t retire at 50, 60, or 65 years old. I think people should retire later, because they’ll have more knowledge and experience. And I think they should work three days a week, so that it creates space for others.” ” This way, there will be less need for transportation. Nations wouldn’t have to face early retirements that are financially destabilizing. The quality of life and having four days a week free would encourage a lot of economic activities—more tourism, entertainment, sports, culture, and education. People can take advantage of those extra days to keep learning.” It looks like Volkswagen’s diesel scandal could keep rolling as reports claim that the automaker has three hidden software programs in its 3.0-liter engines. – That secret software in Volkswagen’s 3.0-liter diesels can turn off the vehicles’ emissions controls, Reuters reports, citing the German newspaper Bild am Sonntag. The emissions control system allegedly shuts off after 22 minutes, when most emissions tests take about 20. Nikkei Asian Review reported Monday that AMZN Japan was raided by antitrust officials in Japan. Amazon Japan pricing deals with competitors are under antitrust investigation Walt Disney Co’s quarterly prof[...]



DHUnplugged # 323: Welcome To Zikami

Wed, 03 Aug 2016 07:20:00 +0000

Stocks are reaching levels that may not be sustainable. With European stress tests under scrutiny, banks within the region are getting hit hard while Greek banks have been upgraded from selective default. The CDC is now warning people to stay away from Miami as the Zika virus has been showing up more frequently – specifically in the town of Wynmoor in Miami. Where else can you hear a discussion about Whale poop? Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Markets – 7 days down for DJIA – but nothing major… Atlanta Fed President Lockhart says keeping a close eye on asset prices as they are particularly buoyant at the moment; need to watch valuations How much?? The chart below from the Congressional Research Service describes the costs to taxpayers of the four former presidents and one widow, Nancy Reagan, who were given pensions and benefits in fiscal year 2015. In total, taxpayers spent more than $3.2 million on the four former presidents — a tiny sum relative to the $3.7 trillion federal budget, but a healthy chuck of change to spend on people who can earn millions through speaking fees, book deals and other sources of incomes. The president’s fiscal 2017 budget requested an increase to $3.865 million to cover the costs of adding Obama as a former president. Former Presidential Costs Table LARRY! In acquisition news, Oracle has agreed to buy NetSuite for $109 a share, or about $9.3 billion. Larry Ellison already owned about 40% of NetSuite, so the deal will net him about $3.5 billion. European Banking Authority (EBA) releases 2016 EU-wide stress test results: No surprise – With one exception, all banks show CET1 capital levels well above the benchmark of 5.5% used in 2014 in the hypothetical adverse scenario. This reflects the robustness of overall capital levels at the banks tested in the EBA led stress tests. (Italy’s Monte Dei Paschi was the only “failure”) UBER OUT IN CHINA – Lost billions… (Approx $35billion) Didi Chuxing announced a strategic agreement with Uber under which Didi Chuxing will acquire all assets of Uber China–including its brand, business operations and data–for operation within mainland China. This landmark transaction signals a new stage in the development of China’s rideshare industry. In exchange for the Uber China assets, Uber will receive 5.89% of the combined company with preferred equity interest which is equal to a 17.7% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. In addition, Baidu (BIDU) and other Chinese shareholders will receive a 2.3% economic interest in Didi Chuxing. Under the agreement, Didi Chuxing will also obtain a minority equity interest in Uber. Cheng Wei, founder and chairman of Didi Chuxing, will join the board of Uber. Travis Kalanick, founder of Uber, will join the board of Didi Chuxing. With this transaction, Didi Chuxing becomes the only company with common investment from Tencent (TCEHY), Alibaba (BABA) and Baidu. Just to show how bad a long-term investment the some of the leveraged ETFs are – The UVXY (2X Short-term Vix) now trades at about $25.25. If you would have owned it since inception ….. See Chart UVXY Long-Term Chart New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo has asked the state’s Department of Corrections and Community Supervision (DOCCS) to bar registered sex offenders from playing the game Pokémon Go, citing concerns that pedophiles could use the app to find or lure victims. – Supposedly 100 million downloads and company pulling in $10million/day – Welcome to Zikami – The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an unprecedented travel warning Monday, advisin[...]



TDI Podcast: Tips From The Teen Traders (#470)

Mon, 01 Aug 2016 00:18:28 +0000

Teen Traders, Getty Hill and Tristen Najarian tell us how they see the markets – from a teenager’s perspective. We discuss the ways they decided to get more involved with markets and how they research. They also provide us a few of their favorite stock picks as well. In this episode, we start with a […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/06OJdCQ6_iU/tdi_episode470.mp3




DHUnplugged #322: Earnings Deluge

Wed, 27 Jul 2016 07:39:00 +0000

Investors are waiting for the Fed to help prop up markets as over 200 companies are scheduled to report earnings this week. While 68% of companies are beating earnings, not so much discussion about the currency tailwind they are seeing. What happened to transparency? The RNC and DNC have some great scandals on their hands – if nothing else makes for some very entertaining times. Much more and plenty of ideas to chew on in this episode. Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Trouble at the DNC – nice timing on the release of the emails by WikiLeaks. DNC Chair steps down – (but now on Clinton Campaign?) – Can we discuss why they send emails for sensitive info that can get them in a bind? – What is wrong with the people that write these types of things down? – Is this a help to the Republicans? Blame the Russians:  The FBI is investigating the cybertheft of emails from the Democratic National Committee amid concerns hackers working for Russia are attempting to use the breach to influence the presidential election. Bernie Sanders, who lost the nomination to Hillary Clinton, told his supporters it was important to vote for her to stop Donald J. Trump. Yet many booed that sentiment, and other protesters picked up on the Republicans’ chant of “Lock Her Up.” Looks like the RNC convention and the DNC email fiasco is lifting Trump in the polls Latest CNN Presidential Poll The DNC started off with a bang! Michelle Obama provided a powerful speech… Final Roll Call – Clinton is the official Dem candidate! DNC Roll Call Count Yahoo! (YHOO) core assets bought by Verizon (V) for just under $5 billion. Meyers stays on….But what is the benefit for Verizon? What is Meyers going to do with a simple holding company? Earnings this week – over 200 companies +/- from S&P 500 are reporting this week. Including Apple, Facebook and other major names – what will this do for markets? Earnings season update – about 25% of the S&P companies have reported. Estimates are for a drop of 3.7% on a growth basis for earnings this quarter – better than the 5.5% estimated just a few weeks ago. 65% of companies have beat ES estimates and about 58% beat sales estimates. Current P/E ratio on forward basis is still high at 17.5% given conservative estimates. Apple (AAPL) beats on EPS, in-line on revenue. All major metrics soft as compared to last year same quarter. (Stock up 6%) (Oh – 3rd straight quarter of sales/revenue drop) Apple Q3 EPS $1.42 vs $1.38 Capital IQ Consensus; Rev $42.4 bln vs $42.10 bln Capital IQ Consensus; Sees Q4 rev $45.5-47.5 bln vs. $45.8 bln consensus Margins were better than expected which is good considering concerns about cheaper product mix Q3 iPhones 40.4 mln vs 40.2 mln ests vs 47.5 mln last year. Q3 iPads 9.95 mln vs 8.7 mln ests vs 10.9 mln last year. Q3 Macs 4.2 mln vs 4.6 mln ests vs 4.4 mln last year. Twitter beats by $0.04, reports revs in-line; guides Q3 revs below consensus; Raises low end of FY16 EBITDA guidance (Stock down 10%) Conference call notes: Seeing an improvement in engagement driven by product changes not associated with live content it has launched (has only done 2 events). DAU to MAU ratio remains stable; saw an improvement in tweet impressions. Focused on Live sport, news/politics/ and entertainment. For guidance, evaluating what has happened in July and how quarter ended; factoring in bookings and what it sees happening; launching more streaming products in September (notes only two NFL games in quarter so will not have a big impact in Q3). Video is [...]



TDI Podcast: The Behavioral Doc Is Da House (#469)

Sun, 24 Jul 2016 21:08:17 +0000

Dr. Daniel Crosby helps us understand several types of risk and how it impacts our trading and investment outcomes. From ego risk to confirmation bias, we look into what make traders/investors tick and how they can better understand ways to make better decisions. In this episode Andrew looks at some of the important earnings ahead […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/k6aNinVkm84/tdi_episode469.mp3




DHUnplugged #321: Energizer Bunny Markets

Wed, 20 Jul 2016 07:10:00 +0000

Markets acting like the Energizer Bunny – Keeps going an going and going… Seems that world events, economic headwinds and even coup attempts are not enough to dissuade investors from throwing their money into stocks. Earnings season is well underway with hundreds of companies reporting over the next couple of weeks. John nails it with his latest pick ! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Markets unfazed by escalating violence and coup in Turkey – setting all-time highs almost daily for DJIA and SP500. How full of shit are they? IMF’s Christine Lagarde said that Turkey’s central bank did a great job containing markets and currency moves in response to Coup attempt. (No! – Lira off by 4% and markets down 5%) – Update Lira now lower than when coup was headline…. – Massive move by Erdogan govy to take control, fire judges, politicians and seek to bring back death penalty Softbank buys ARM Holdings (ARMH) with a 45% premium. Brexit may be some of reason with BP Netflix Q2 International Net Additions 1.52 mln vs 2.00 mln guidance; For Q3 NFLX expects addition of 2 mln, expectations were in the range of 2.70-2.85 mln; Q1 Adds was 4.51 – US Net additions only 160k – Churn due to higher rate on older subs that got rate hike – International lower than expected – Company beat on EPS by $0.07 (expectations of $0.02) – guided lower than expectations – Company commentary about why they fell short was focused on the churn (they don’t expect that to continue) and also spent a lot of time trying to show that it was not competition – STOCK DOWN 14% IBM prelim Q2 $2.95 vs $2.89 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $20.24 bln vs $20.06 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate – had one segment (Watson) that showed growth. Goldman Sachs (GS) Beat by 0.67 – however this was on lowered estimates. Looking at March estimates – company just met.. (Big revisions to estimates over the past several months to make bar lower) Yahoo! said that its revenue in the second quarter fell 15 percent, after excluding accounting adjustments, and its operating profit fell 64 percent. Yahoo also acknowledged that Tumblr — its biggest acquisition under its current chief executive, Marissa Mayer — was now worth only one-third of the $1.1 billion that Yahoo paid for it in 2013. Microsoft prelim Q4 $0.69 vs $0.58 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; revs $22.64 bln vs $22.14 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate  – Stock up 3% after-hours JCD Called it: British voters, it turns out, can’t actually remove their country from the European Union. Only their elected leaders can do so. Since the June 23 referendum, the debate has turned to whether the new prime minister, Theresa May, can initiate the country’s EU exit without first seeking permission from Parliament. The question has sparked what could turn into a wave of legal challenges, known as judicial reviews. The first one begins Tuesday. More Brexit fallout: Concerns over the U.K.’s Brexit referendum significantly hampered confidence in Germany’s economy in July, with the ZEW survey of economic sentiment sliding to the lowest level since 2012. The indicator slumped to negative 6.8 points, down from 19.2 in June. Big trouble at RNC – Seems that there was some plagiarism: Here is Trump, on Monday: “From a young age, my parents impressed on me the values that you work hard for what you want in life, that your word is your bond and you do what you say and keep your pro[...]



TDI Podcast: Me And Mar Kets (#468)

Sun, 17 Jul 2016 20:18:16 +0000

Finally back from a wild trip to Myanmar and Thailand. What an amazing adventure that provides a good deal of perspective for those of us that live in homes with constant and reliable heating, electricity and running water. Earnings season is under way and we have some of the top name reporting. Listener questions on […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/Y2YBxWFYlKE/tdi_episode468.mp3




DHUnplugged #320: Pokeman GO Markets

Wed, 13 Jul 2016 07:43:00 +0000

Brexit turned out to be nothing. In fact markets making new highs as the promise of stimulus and liquidity quiet market fears. Meanwhile, several U.K. based real estate funds are denying withdrawals as investors are pulling out too much money. Bonds rallying hard along with equities as the flight to safety pushes sovereign debt “more” negative. Crazy times…. What comes next as earnings season begins? Click HERE for Show Notes and Links A teaser from Elon Musk: Master plan 2 for Tesla – Tweeted… What a master of manipulation! Stocks up post Brexit. S&P 500 hits ALL TIME HIGH – DJIA right behind. – Governments panic over Brexit pushed out liquidity and the potential for stimulus and now that there is not much fallout money rushing into stocks – US 10Y bond sub 1.5% – Commodities ramp (Gold, Silver, Copper) Update from Myanmar – incredible trip – posted some pix on Twitter. Very poor country – highlight was cooking class on Inle River. Click to view slideshow. Interesting culture of food – most meals come with an array of salads (Penny Wort, Asparagus flower, Pickled teea leaves, tomatoes) – AND the river is like a giant hydroponic garden for most vegetables. Key Reversal Indicator flashing a warning sign that an imminent move lower is possible (may be shallow but market well overbought) KRI Indicator Pokeman GO app is something of a phenomenon. Going to be lots of injuries with this augmented reality app. -A man has suffered the full pains of Pokemon Go after accidentally becoming the owner of a gym. Boon Sheridan woke up to find that the hugely popular augmented reality game had decided that his house was one of the game’s important gyms. That means that people are rewarded for coming to it in real life – resulting in what he said was dozens of people outside his door. AND: At least one military base is warning service members against the dangers of wandering into unauthorized areas while chasing Pokemon. “Since Pokemon Go hit last week there have been reports of serious injuries and accidents of people driving or walking while looking at the app and chasing after the virtual Pokemon,” says the message posted this morning to the Joint Base Lewis McChord official Facebook page. “Do not chase Pokemon into controlled or restricted areas, office buildings, or homes on base.” ** Will the app be another way for advertising as perhaps the places that have the things to find pay to get on the game? (That is genius) In a recent development, Intel is jotting down the options for Intel Security and it might plan to sell the Antivirus maker software formerly known as McAfee. Six years ago, the same software maker was bought by Intel for $7.7 billion. Even though Intel has declined to offer any clarity on the issue, people who are part of the ongoing discussion have indicated that the Silicon Valley chipmaker might be considering options for selling their cyber security unit to bankers, and if at all the deal is materialized, it’d be one of the largest within the sector. SBUX – The coffee chain will boost prices on selected coffee beverages at company-operated U.S. stores, effective today. Starbucks said certain sizes of brewed coffee will see increases of 10 cents to 20 cents per cup. Seagate is cutting 6,500 jobs or about 14 percent of the hard disk drive maker’s global workforce. That announcement comes only a few weeks after Seagate anno[...]



DHUnplugged #319: Brexit Wrecks It

Tue, 28 Jun 2016 04:44:00 +0000

The Brexit vote sent shock wave throughout financial markets. What really happened and what is the outlook for Europe and the rest of the world? Is there a chance for a re-vote and an undo of the referendum? Markets jolted, financial leaders say be calm, but is this a short-term sell off or is something more ominous in store? Markets lost over $2 trillion over the last few days… We cover the ins and outs of the markets, what could be in store and some ideas on how to profit. Click HERE for Show Notes and Links Brexit – Brexit – Brexit – JCD explanation of what happened. – Is it true the most Google’d term in UK is “What is the European Union”  ?? – Listen to latest No Agenda show for amazing coverage – Open the Chunnel! [LINK TO MP3] – Can it be reversed? (U.K. politicans say NO!) Markets plunged around the world – MSCI Global equity index down 5% Friday, another 2% today – Us markets hit with DJIA down 600, S&P 500 down 4% and small caps down 4.5% – U.S. equity futures were locked down limit for about 30 minutes after the vote counted. – S&P cuts UK rating to AA from AAA; Outlook Negative – Crude oil down 5%, Gold up 5% Currencies were whipped around – British pound – 7.5%, Yen +3% (clipped 100) , Euro -3% (1.10) European banks hammered – down 15% – 25% – DB (-17%), SAN (-19%), RBS (-27%) , LYG (-23%), BCS (-22%) , BBVA (-19%) US Major banks – JPM (-7%) , BAC (-7%), MS (-10%), GS (-7%) – Smaller regions did much better European Insurers also slammed – ING (-19%), AV (-21%), ALIZF (-13%) US Airlines – DAL (-8%) , AAL (-11%) – Smaller regions did much better Over $2 trillion lost over past couple of days in markets – worst day ever loss in $ terms …. Let’s take a look how European markets did on Friday – (ETFs) Europe ETfs Time to buy some of these beaten down names???? (Trading in Barclays and RBS shares was suspended on Monday morning following heavy losses on the London Stock Exchange.) What is the chance that the Brexit will now cause further European Union referendums to exit. Grexit. Departugal. Italeave. Fruckoff. Czechout. Oustria. Finish. Slovlong. Latervia. Byegium.. until EU reach the state of Germlonely. You have to love the commentary coming out of the “experts” in high places: – IMF’s Lagarde: “Markets got Brexit vote it wrong, but don’t panic” Where does market go from here? Looking at fundamentals value could be seen at 1,930 – 1950 on S&P 500. Already DJIA is down 900 points since Friday. **** US 10-year treasury at 1.45%  – LOWEST ON RECORD ****  This week: – Tuesday, an E.U. leadership summit begins in Brussels; the Conference Board presents its June consumer confidence index; the April Case-Shiller home price index appears; the BEA issues its final estimate of Q1 GDP; and Nike reports quarterly results. – Wednesday, Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, European Central Bank president Mario Draghi, and Bank of England governor Mark Carney take part in a panel discussion at an ECB forum in Portugal; Wall Street will also pay attention to May pending home sales, May personal spending figures, and earnings news from General Mills, Monsanto, and Pier 1. – Thursday, a new initial claims report complements earnings from ConAgra Foods, Constellation[...]


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/7fOLUpGXmTg/NA-837-2016-06-26-Final.mp3




TDI Podcast: The Brexit Aftermath with Das (#467)

Sun, 26 Jun 2016 21:38:01 +0000

Das explains some of the obvious and not-so obvious implications of the Brexit vote. Some of the background as well as the next areas that could be impacted.  We also discuss why the peripheral countries were hit so hard as well as what this means to the U.S. economy. With central bankers just about out […](image)


Media Files:
http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/thedisciplinedinvestor/EBHR/~5/k9RxfqYeXvA/tdi_episode467.mp3




DHUnplugged #318: Two Days and Counting

Wed, 22 Jun 2016 07:28:00 +0000

Listen Now :Countdown to the Brexit vote – two days from now we will know the result. Some are predicting that if the U.K. were to vote to leave that the pound could drop and a global recession would ensue. Janet Yellen testifies to Congress over the next two days, shedding light on some of […](image)