Last Build Date: Tue, 27 Sep 2016 15:49:35 +0000
Tue, 27 Sep 2016 15:44:43 +0000
The media consensus seems to be that Clinton did much better than Trump yesterday, but she didn’t roll a natural 20 and Trump didn’t roll a natural 1, so we get two more of these. My prediction for the narrative, based on every election since 2000, is that Trump will be deemed to have improved [...]
Sun, 25 Sep 2016 17:27:28 +0000
The Republican Party is in a bind. Their nominee is doing incredible damage to their brand, and even if he wins he will likely bring the country into multiple constitutional crises. Plenty of Republicans know this and don’t want to endorse him. On the one hand, if the party wants to remain an effective, electable [...]
Fri, 02 Sep 2016 16:46:03 +0000
I have only one thing to say about Trump’s immigration speech: Agree or disagree with him, but he has staked out his stance, he has made his contrast, and it is a sharp one. One way or another, this contest will tell us something, as opposed to a contest between centre-left and centre-right.
On a [...]
Sat, 27 Aug 2016 18:50:31 +0000
In the past week, two things have happened:Ann Coulter released a book in which she said that the only way Trump could lose support is if he softened his immigration stance. Trump started to soften his immigration stance.
I have been convinced for some time that Trump’s goal is to destroy the Republican Party, [...]
Sun, 21 Aug 2016 17:44:37 +0000
ISIS just bombed a wedding party in Turkey, killing 50 people. Sounds like somebody is getting their training from the US government.
Wed, 17 Aug 2016 16:07:15 +0000
The House Republicans love 1998 as much as I do, and they plan to go after Clinton for lying under oath.
You know what I said when I first heard about this? I said ‘Hallelujah!’ to the sixteen loyal fans.
OK, honestly, I think it’s pretty clear that Hillary Clinton got away with shit involving [...]
Thu, 11 Aug 2016 17:12:17 +0000
I just read a book about a certain topic in public policy. I won’t name it because I don’t want to get bogged down in particulars. (Though, because this post involves conspiratorial thinking I will say that the policy issue in question is not closely tied to national security or foreign policy, so that takes [...]
Wed, 10 Aug 2016 02:21:49 +0000
I’m not sure I know what it means to say that ISIS is operating in Libya. I’m sure that there are violent people in Libya who say that they are on the same side as the guys in Iraq and Syria, but Libya has more than enough of its own problems, and there were people [...]
Wed, 03 Aug 2016 20:44:37 +0000
In 2016 the Democratic presidential candidate enjoys her strongest electoral support in New England and parts of the West, and draws substantial financial and institutional support from Wall Street and the security establishment. The Republican candidate is a racist populist whose strongest bases of support are in the South and rust belt. A re-alignment that [...]
Wed, 03 Aug 2016 17:30:53 +0000
I still privately believe that the Trump campaign is a massive prank pulled for the purpose of destroying the GOP. Between the Rick Roll at the convention, repeatedly playing “You Can’t Always Get What You Want”, his decision to fight the people who are trying to support him, and his reported 2015 conversations with Bill [...]
Sat, 30 Jul 2016 05:03:49 +0000
At the Democratic Convention some people started an anti-war chant, but were drowned out by people chanting “U-S-A! U-S-A!” They nominated a candidate supported by big business and the national security establishment, and drawing her strongest electoral support from New England and parts of the West. Considering that Clinton is running against a racist drawing [...]
Fri, 29 Jul 2016 02:20:59 +0000
Yesterday’s post speculating on an impeachment and making analogies with the California gubernatorial recall came across more tongue-in-cheek than I intended it. What I sincerely believe is that Republicans will rationalize their loss on the grounds that Trump wasn’t a legitimate candidate, and thus Clinton’s was not a legitimate win. OK, they would de-legitimize any [...]
Thu, 28 Jul 2016 02:07:59 +0000
In 2002, the California Republican Party nominated a guy that the base loved. He was soundly defeated by Gray Davis, a moderate Democrat whom nobody liked very much. As a show of how unpopular the two major candidates were, together they only got 89% of the vote in November.
A year later, Gray Davis was [...]
Wed, 27 Jul 2016 21:23:56 +0000
Donald Trump shooting his mouth off to say that Russia should spy on Hillary Clinton does not both me as much as it bothers some people. I pretty much expect him to say terrible things. It’s part of his media strategy. And while all of the experts seem to agree that the hack of the [...]
Sat, 23 Jul 2016 20:59:30 +0000
Let me start this by assuring everyone that I agree that Trump is dangerous, and if you live in a swing state I think the safest move is to vote for Clinton.
Now, let’s talk about everyone who isn’t in a swing state. Some polls have Gary Johnson above 10%. I have no great hope [...]
Sat, 23 Jul 2016 19:13:34 +0000
I’m less worried about a Trump victory at this point. The convention was apparently a massive act of trolling, complete with a Rick-Roll in Melania Trump’s speech. Protests outside the convention did not result in any national media spectacles to scare people into voting for the strongman. And as to Clinton and her VP pick, [...]
Mon, 18 Jul 2016 16:15:37 +0000
The other day I said to a friend that I cannot see America electing a Jewish socialist in November, no matter what polls might have said in May, so in that sense I think it is good for the Democratic Party that Sanders was not nominated. My friend, on the other hand, thinks that Sanders [...]
Mon, 18 Jul 2016 16:06:34 +0000
I still do not think that Trump will win. Every instinct tells me that enough voters will recoil from him and the division that is a third of what powers his campaign. But the two-thirds are celebrity (a powerful force in media-driven elections) and a completely accurate feeling that the modern American elites care not [...]
Mon, 11 Jul 2016 21:23:26 +0000
To be clear, I’m not terribly interested in whether Hillary Clinton’s email server was secure from hackers or spies. My assumption is that most governments more or less know what most governments are up to in most things, and any protestations to the contrary are simply polite diplomatic fictions. I’m more concerned about the use [...]
Mon, 11 Jul 2016 14:32:34 +0000
The Democratic Party’s platform committee is endorsing “a reasoned path to marijuana legalization.” It’s weak language, but it’s more than one might have hoped for from a major political party in the not too distant past. Less significant than the nonexistent power of the platform committee (we’re not a parliamentary system; party platforms are of [...]