Last Build Date: Thu, 30 Mar 2017 02:08:12 +0000
Wed, 29 Mar 2017 12:34:28 +0000align="right" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="180" scrolling="no" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4b-by5e4saI?ecver=1" width="320"> Oh baby you know what I like Chantilly lace and a pretty face And a pony tail a hangin' down That wiggle in the walk And giggle in the talk Makes the world go round There ain't nothin' in the world Like a big eyed girl That makes me act so funny Make me spend my money Well Brexit is official as the UK finally sent it's breakup letter to the EU (not a text, mind you, the UK is classy that way) and now there is a definitive 2-year countdown clock before they officially divorce – unless they decide to extend it – then it could be longer. Makes you kind of wonder what all the panic was about. It's like when your parents get divorced but keep living in the same house. The markets continue to be divorced from reality as we watch the S&P run a textbook 5% Rule™ correction as it falls 2.5% to 2,340 from 2,400 and that's a 60-point drop so our fabulous 5% Rule™ predicts a 20% weak bounce (12-points) to 2,352 and a 40% strong bounce to 2,364 which, no coincidentally at all, happens to be the 50-day moving average on the S&P. Of course we are shorting at the 50 dma. I put a note out to our Members this morning in our Live Chat Room, saying: /YM testing 20,600 from above – off a bit from yesterday's close. /ES 2,350, /NQ 5,406 and /TF 1,361 – all off their highs and we can play the laggards below those lines (5,400 on /NQ and 1,360 on /TF). As noted above, these are just the weak bounce lines we expected to get to (and fail) after last week's sell-off so, if we're breaking down here – it's a good sign to short the indexes again. …[...]
Tue, 28 Mar 2017 12:33:19 +0000
(image) Too political? Well F you!
Today, the lunatic in the White House will sign an executive order (no Congressional approval – just his own insane plan) to unravel the climate-change policies Barack Obama enacted in the hopes of saving the Planet Earth. Oh, and fun fact for you Republican voters – WE LIVE ON PLANET EARTH!!!
Now, I'm not asking you to believe in climate change. I'm simply asking you to believe in logic. The Republicans like to say: "The science isn't conclusive" and let's say we accept the fact that your child has a high temperature that may prove fatal if it gets higher and 97 doctors you take him to say you need to IMMEDIATELY get his temperature down or he might die but 3 say – we don't know for sure it will kill him so let it run its course.
So, what do you do? Do you just let you child sweat and shiver and get worse and worse while you watch and do nothing or do you TRY to do something to make him or her better? Well, Donald Trump just decided not only not to do anything but to stop every other parent on this planet from doing something. In fact, although 97% of the scientists believe man-made carbon-dioxide is causing the problem – Donald J Trump (to be known as "Trump the Terrible – Destroyer of Earth" in our future) is also passing laws to INCREASE our production of CO2.
(image) As noted by Stephen Colbert, in that clip from 2014, Exxon (XOM) was a major force in the climate-denying movement and it is THEIR PAID SCIENTISTS that are the 3 out of 97 that deny climate change and, by the way, who signed their checks at the time – Rex Tillerson – our very own new Secretary of State, back when he was just the lowly CEO of Exxon.
(image) Of course it's not a "conspiracy" – it's simply a coincidence…
Mon, 27 Mar 2017 10:42:37 +0000
(image) And down we go!
I'll bet those hedges are looking better and better every day now, right? Now that the enthusiastic GOP investors have learned their first (of many) political lessons of the Trump Error (and we had plenty under Obama when we had both houses), we'll see how their enthusiasm for the market holds up because, as we've noted before – there is/was a huge disparity between economic optimism of Republicans and Democrats and, if the Republicans begin to doubt to the Power of Trump – all those confidence numbers can drop like a rock tied to a bigger rock.
Even as I write this we're getting mail from people trying to explain gravity to us. Yes, we get it, it was an expression! On the other hand, a lot of the basics need to be explained to the Trump camp and their supporters if they are going to get anything other than executive orders passed this term (however long that lasts). The Futures, meanwhile, are following through to the downside this morning and we ran our 5% Rule through the Charts in this morning's Alert to our Members. Here are the Dow notes as an example:
So Dow 21,000 less 5% is 19,950 and 2.5% is 20,475 so we'll look for that for support and the 525 drop we can call 20,500 the line that matters with 100-point bounces to 20,600 and 20,700 but I'd start shorting at 20,600 – if we even make that. Worse would be failing to retake 20,500 – then it's almost a certainty we drop another 500.
This is happening despite us being wrong about the Dollar on Friday morning, as 99.50 did not hold and we are now at 98.90, which is down $700 per contract (/DX) at the moment but I still have faith but, if I'm right, that will be bad news for the indexes as the weak Dollar is the only thing keeping them from those 5% corrections that we think are inevitable at this point (so you may was well lay back and enjoy it – hat tip…
Fri, 24 Mar 2017 12:25:54 +0000Utter chaos! As noted by the GOP leadership: "There is no Plan B" to the TrumpDon'tCare Act. Either the GOP guts health care and takes insurance away from 24M Americans and begins to defund Medicaid or, as Trump now states "Obmacare Stays." I know – WTF? Is it possible that the GOP has purposely put forth an unpassable bill BECAUSE they realize Obmacare is too good to kill? Keep in mind this is just the House Vote on Health Care, which was supposed to be easy, the Senate vote is next and the changes they made in the bill could cause it to fail simply under the parliamentary rules (because they changed it to a simple majority, which caused other rules to kick in). If 3 GOP Senators defect, the Bill dies and, even if it passes, the Dems can tie it up in court for a long time. Since they have a 44 vote advantage in the House (10%) and can't get them in line, it's reasonable to assume they are going to have trouble with at least 5 Senators and Senators have to Represent whole states – this is a suicide mission for Republican Senators from Democratic states. It's very possible this battle will cost the GOP the Senate next year and the Senate gets to do all those fun investigations. So that's the upside on the Bill – the downside is TOTAL CHAOS! Of course, that may be exactly what the White House wanted because, clearly, they did not have a real Health Care plan but, much more importantly, you forgot all about Trump's false accusations that Obama tapped his phone and, even though Devin Nunes jumped on a grenade for Trump and tried to convince the American People that mentions of the Trump team in some investigations justified Trump's paranioa (destroying his own reputation in the process) - no one really fell for it but, suddenly, Health Care distracted us – how convenient! Yesterday, I was on the Benzinga Pre-Market Report at 8:30 and they asked me how to play the Dow and I told them (20 minutes in): "Figure…[...]