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Phil's Stock World

Daily stock picks and option trades, market analysis, and investing strategies for investors and traders of all types.

Last Build Date: Wed, 26 Oct 2016 00:20:28 +0000


Tuesday Trauma – Credit Card Delinquencies Hit Post-Crisis Highs

Tue, 25 Oct 2016 12:08:08 +0000

(image) Good news for Visa!  

You know how you get that "teaser" rate on your credit cards or no interest for 12 months when you start?  Well, that all goes away when you have a delinquency and then they get to hit you with 22% interest FOR LIFE AND penalties and then you are DOOMED!!!!  Well, 2.2% of credit card holders are now in that category, the most since the market collapsed in the sub-prime loan crisis.  

Of course, we'd never make that mistake again, right?  So what have our beloved credit card companies been doing about it?  Well, they issued over 20M new credit cards to subprime borrowers in 2015 and that's up 56% from 2013.  And the borrowers paying those crazy penalty rates are, of course, the ones who can least afford them:

Missed payments in states with large oil or energy sectors continue to worsen. The share of card balances that were at least 90 days past due increased 12% in Oklahoma, 10% in Texas and 20% in Wyoming in the third quarter from a year prior, according to TransUnion. The Wall Street Journal reported in April that rising unemployment in the energy sector was pushing up delinquencies on credit cards and auto loans, raising the risk of new losses for banks.

(image) Don't worry about bank losses – we'll bail them out – where's the risk in that?  Speaking of criminal banking institutions, 14% of Wells Fargo (WFC) customers have decided to leave the bank, the other 86% seem oblivious to the news.  Of course the other banks are eager to meet the former WFC customers, so they can cross-sell the crap out of them!  This is how the free market is supposed to work, where the customers punish wrongdoers by withdrawing their support.  Unfortunately, you wouldn't know there we wrongdoers without regulatory oversight and, even then, it apparently takes years and years to uncover.

(image) Rather than put our money into WFC and expecting a recovery (and they are only down about 20% despite the fact

Manic Monday Markets – Propped Up Futures Give Us Another Opportunity

Mon, 24 Oct 2016 12:33:14 +0000

(image) Just another manic Monday.  

Europe gapped higher at their open (3am) and took our indexes up with it as no volume, of course, so we'll have to see what sticks but I already put up shorting lines for our Members in this morning's Live Member Chat Room.  Essentially, we're just shorting at the same bounce lines I laid out last Tuesday so nothing has changed – except it's Monday, not Tuesday.  Today though, we added the Nikkei (/NKD) short at 17,350, as strong data from Europe should strengthen the Euro and weaken the Dollar a bit (98.60).

This has, of course, been going on all year in a generally flat market, though that hasn't stopped us from ranging between 1,800 and 2,200 on the S&P – more than a 20% variance from highs to lows.  Logically, 2,000 is then, the middle of the range yet, despite 65% of the S&P 500 trading below their 50-Day Moving Average, we're still much closer to the high end of our trading range.  

Clearly the so-called smart money has been fleeing the markets all year, as evidenced by JackDamn's cash flow chart, which illustrates the massive outflow of money from the 500 in 2016.  Think of each block of outflows like Jenga pegs that are being removed – even as the tower is built higher and higher.  You KNOW what will eventually happen – you just don't know exactly when the whole thing will collapse.  Given that the outflows are increasing at the moment – we should keep a careful eye on this indicator. 


Oil (/CL) Futures tested $51 again early this morning but is already back to $50.34 so too late to short it if you weren't paying any attention to the last 3 week's worth of posts, where we shorted at $51 over and over again.  Speaking of last week's picks – you can still pick up Natural Gas (/NG) long as it crosses over the $3 line and use that line as a stop so very little to lose and much to gain on those futures.  

(image) Meanwhile, the markets have gone

Media Files:

Philstockworld Top Trade Review

Sat, 22 Oct 2016 12:22:46 +0000

(image) Who says we're not bullish?  

While we are, certainly, cautious on the market and well-hedged (just in case), we certainly do seem to find a lot of bullish positions to take.  That's because we're VALUE INVESTORS and there is almost always something of value to buy in any kind of market and our Top Trades are, of course, our top value picks – the ones we feel most confident in.  

In our first year, our Top Trade Ideas had an astounding 81.1% winning percentage with 86 out of 106 trades making money within a few months.  That's without even adjusting them.  We do not have a portfolio for Top Trades, we just do these reviews but many of our Top Trade Ideas do end up in one of our 4 Member Portfolios.  

Our August review took us through July 12th and July 12th was the last Top Trade Idea we had until August because I REALLY didn't trust the market in mid-July so this month, we'll just be reviewing our August trades as we like to give Sept time to cook before reviewing those.  We had a surprising amount of trade ideas in August though.  Our 15 May, June and July picks had 11 winners but, unfortunately, that actually bought down our percentage!  

Of course, when you are reading our reviews, those losing trades are often still opportunities.  CMG, CBI, PSO and SDS are all plays we still like from the last review – they are simply late bloomers!   SDS, in fact, is a hedge – it's not supposed to win if the others are doing well but we still count it as a loss. 

(image) Top Trade Alerts come from our Live Member Chat Room at Philstockworld and represent a very small portion of our trade ideas but they are a fair representation of applying our "Be the House – NOT the Gambler" strategy and you can learn a lot by reviewing the performance of these trades through up and down markets over the course of a year.  All PSW Basic and Premium Members have Top Trade Access (just make sure your smart phone number is in the box here if you want text alerts in addition to our EMail alerts). 


$500 Friday – A Ridiculous Week Comes to a Close

Fri, 21 Oct 2016 12:32:16 +0000

(image) Don't you just love oil trading? 

After making $4,000 in less than a day on our Live Trading Webinar Idea on Wednesday (replay available here) we took advantage of the last day's trading the November contracts over at the NYMEX to short Oil Futures (/CL) one final time.  As I said to our readers in yesterday's morning post:

Today is rollover day to the December contracts so anything can happen though, of course, we'll short below $51 or $51.50 if we get there on a bounce, using those lines as stops and, of course, we still have our longer-term Oil ETF (USO) puts.  We can only hope that, by making contract spoofing more expensive for the pumpers, we can do just a little to curb the practice at the NYMEX – God only knows the GOP Congress has done nothing to stop this madness, which robs Americans of Billions of Dollars at the pumps each year. 

(image) Remember, I can only tell you what is going to happen in the markets and how to make money by trading it – the rest is up to you!  

Another trade we left up to you was our call to short the S&P (also from our Webinar) Futures (/ES) at 2,140 and those gives us a nice ride down to 2,130, which was also good for $500 per contract and that's nice money to take home into the weekend so we're not being greedy if it stops us out (over our weak bounce line at 2,134 – also see yesterday's post), though we will short oil again as it struggles to take back $51 this morning though, now we're early in the December contract cycle, so there's less downward pressure, so it's a much riskier bet (so very tight stops above).

(image) Also, in favor of the oil bull, OPEC is having another meeting this weekend (as noted in our Webinar, they are now having streams of meetings to talk up the price of oil) and Now Russia's Oil Minister is saying that, with Russian output now over 11Mb/d (a post-Soviet record), they are still willing to discuss production cutbacks.  As…