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Phil's Stock World



Daily stock picks and option trades, market analysis, and investing strategies for investors and traders of all types.



Last Build Date: Mon, 23 Apr 2018 19:16:03 +0000

 



Monday Market Movement – No News is Good News

Mon, 23 Apr 2018 12:50:51 +0000

(image) The Futures are up, of course.  

The Futures are always up on Monday morning as it's a low-volume event and "THEY" can start the week off on a good note.  Since lat night, at 6pm, the Dow was up at 24,550, down to 24,350 and now back to 24,450, which is 50-points better than Friday's crappy close so YAY!, I guess.  It's all total BS, of course and I don't even work Mondays anymore (this isn't me, this is PhilBot 3000, my AI work in progress that will take all of your jobs, starting with mine) so it just doesn't matter but, for the sake of having a post – we'll pretend that it does

Both the IMF and the World Bank had meetings this weekend in Washington, DC and the general consensus there was that the Global Economy is good but Debt and Trade Wars risk making it bad again.  Since Debt and Trade Wars are Donald Trump's go-to policy moves – we're probably screwed.  A communique by the IMF’s main advisory committee, released Saturday, represented a ratcheting-up of pessimism since the group’s last semiannual meeting in October.  “I don’t know where the trade dispute is going quite frankly,” Budget Secretary Diokno said in an interview. “President Trump keeps changing his mind.”   

(image) Central bankers sounded the alert that a trade war would leave them worrying more about the economic fallout than any boost tariffs would give to inflation. Colombia’s central bank president said a trade war would be "catastrophic," his Paraguayan peer said it would be "bad for everyone," while Japan’s chief described protectionism as "very undesirable."  Across the board, 2019 growth forecasts are moving lower while debt is getting quickly out of control.

In particular, according to Bloomberg, the IMF is worried that markets might be underestimating the threat of an inflation shock in the U.S., where the Trump administration is increasing fiscal stimulus with the economy at or near full employment. A surge in inflation might force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates faster than expected, a move that might cause turbulence in emerging market. The fund warned that global public and private debt has reached a record $164 trillion. A spike in interest rates would test the ability of borrowers to refinance
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Trump Tweets Oil Down to $67.50 Giving our Readers $2,000 Per Contract Wins!

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 12:34:46 +0000

(image) I am now a Donald Trump fan!  

Yesterday morning I was interviewed on the Benzinga Pre-Market Show where our trade of the day was to short Oil (/CL) (USO) Futures at $69.50 and, during the day yesterday we got had a nice $1,500 per contract gain as oil dropped to $68 and then, this morning, as oil climbed back to $68.50, where we wanted to short again, our beloved President, Donald J. Trump tweeted out exactly what I had said yesterday afternoon at my Nasdaq interview, with the President saying:

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align="right" allow="autoplay; encrypted-media" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="200" scrolling="no" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/2t1khMZxXvI" width="360">

Needless to say we are thrilled, not just with the money but with the President's ability to summarize what we say during a 5-minute interview in a single tweet – THAT'S LEADERSHIP!  Now, if the President would just put me in charge of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and stake me with the Treasury, we could pay off the National debt in no time buying and selling oil contracts.  

We wouldn't need OPEC to back down if we simply break the NYMEX and we could do that by calling their bluff and promising to sell their fake, Fake, FAKE orders for 223M barrels of oil for May delivery, which we said last Friday would be cancelled or rolled by today and, lo and behold, as of this morning, there are only 26,672 contracts left open for May delivery, representing just 26.6M barrels (90% cancelled) and that will be cut in half today, leaving the US with just 13Mb imported to Cushing at $67.50 per barrel when, earlier this month, we had "orders" for over 500M barrels at $62.50 that were canceled by the criminal NYMEX trading cartel WHO ARE UNDERMINING THE ENERGY SECURITY OF THE UNITED STATES, which happens to be TREASON!  

Well, the orders were not "cancelled" – they "roll" the orders into other months to FAKE demand there as well and this little shell game pushes the price of oil up and up and costs US Consumers Billions of Dollars at the pump every month.  In fact, this month's $5 gain x 20M barrels a day x 30 days is $3Bn we're being screwed out of in April alone.  On the
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Failing Thursday – Rally has a Hard Time Justifying Itself

Thu, 19 Apr 2018 12:06:17 +0000

(image) 2,707 on /ES (S&P Futures)

Technically it's bullish but we are sputtering out and I don't see enough good news to sustain us here – even though here is still 170 points (6%) off the January highs and only 150 points (6%) off the Feb and March lows.  So we've hit the lows twice and hit the highs once and now we're struggling at the halfway point?  That doesn't sound very good, does it?  

Apparently, it doesn't sound good to Bond traders, who have are close to inverting the Yield Curve for the first time since 2007, which led to a total melt-down of the Global Economy 18 months later.  The good news is, the markets didn't crash in 2007 – they just flailed along near the highs before completely collapsing.  I tried to warn people then too…

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If the barrage of Fedspeak this week is any indication, the persistent flattening is creating a dilemma for officials, who appear intent on gradually tightening policy. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard was the latest to weigh in, saying that central bankers need to debate the yield curve right now, and that it could invert within six months.  “A potential curve inversion should be taken as seriously as always,” Citigroup analysts led by Jabaz Mathai wrote in an April 13 report. “The historical relationship between the curve and implied recession probabilities is highly non-linear: implied probabilities grow very fast when the curve moves into inverted territory.”

A truly inverted curve “is a powerful signal of recessions” that historically has occurred “when the Fed is in a tightening cycle, and markets lose confidence in the economic outlook,” John Williams, the next president of the New York Fed, said Tuesday

I'll be on Benzinga Radio this morning at 8:35 and last time (Feb 23rd) I was on we discussed our GreenCoin (GRE) Trade, which was up to 0.004 at the time, a 10-bagger from where we picked it for them in January and now it's at 0.0098 so almost a penny!  Certainly it's doing a lot better than BitCoin, so we're
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Which Way Wednesday – S&P 2,700 Edition

Wed, 18 Apr 2018 12:19:43 +0000

(image) Here we go again:

As you can see from the chart (click to enlarge) we're still making one of those triangle squeezy thingy pattens but the top of the down wedge is still at our 2,740 line and it will be three more weeks of this nonsense (while earnings pour in) until it resolves itself but, with the nose of the triangle lower than where we are now (2,717) – the odds favor the short bet on /ES Futures.

We made a quick $300 per contract yesterday morning from our morning call as /ES fell from 2,700 back to 2,693 (stopping out at 2,694) but then lost $75 per contract trying to play it again as it popped over.  After that, we went to "watch and wait" mode, as planned – and that's where we are this morning, waiting to see which way things break.  There's a Beige Book release by the Fed at 2pm and then Dudley speaks at 3:15 on "Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy."

There's very little going on in the news and not much change in Fundamentals and earnings have been OK this week, with 31 (82%) out of 38 reports showing beats this week.  Of course, that's what we expected early in the season and if this can't lift the S&P back to at least 2,640 then WE'RE DOOMED!!!!  Sure, I think we're doomed anyway but that's only because of the Global Fundamentals and the market is usually pretty good at ignoring that.  

This morning, the Dow (/YM) can be shorted at 24,800, so that's a fun play but 6,850 on the Nasdaq (/NQ) Futures is always one of my favorite shorting lines and we can't argue with the classics – same strategy as yesterday, with tight stops over the lines.  

We have a Live Trading Webinar at 1pm where we'll go over some Futures Trading Techniques as well as reveiwing our 5 Member Portfolios.

(image) We're back to the ridiculous money-printing market conditions that caused us to cash out in December.  Since Jan 2nd, our Long-Term Portfolio has already gained $72,000 (14.4%), which is ridiculous as it's annualized at over 40% gains which, of course, are unsustainable.  I said to our
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