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Preview: Phil's Stock World

Phil's Stock World



Daily stock picks and option trades, market analysis, and investing strategies for investors and traders of all types.



Last Build Date: Tue, 21 Nov 2017 08:48:29 +0000

 



Monday Market Movement – Dead Week Ahead

Mon, 20 Nov 2017 13:35:35 +0000

(image) Why are you here? 

I told you it was going to be a pointless, slow week.  You need to take advantage of these things and take vacations.  Surely you didn't become a trader so you could be chained to a desk all day, right?  Get out there and have some fun, the market will still be here when you come back.  

We took a quick $338 per contract profit off the table already on our oil shorts and that's a nice $3,380 on 10 contracts to fly us down to Florida and have a big old turkey dinner with the family and THAT is why I like being a trader – just a little bit of work for a lot of reward (after putting in years and years of hard work and practice, though).  Still, the point is you have to learn to enjoy yourself, that's why our tag-line is: "High Finance for Real People – Fun and Profits."  If you're not having any fun – what good are the profits? 

(image) As I noted in our Portfolio Reviews last week, we're trying to emphasize the LONG-term investing strategies.  Futures trades like the one above are fun but they are a lot more fun when you KNOW you have a good collection of stocks working for you 24/7 to keep new money pouring in.  In the case of our Long-Term Portfolio (LTP), we're collecting $50,000 a year in dividends alone and we just added another dozen big dividend-paying stocks to our Watch List.  

Our Portfolios have been pretty much locked in neutral since October, with only our Buttefly Portfolio putting up big returns because it's already self-hedging and doesn't really care whether the market goes up, down or sideways.  If I had to trade just one strategy the rest of my life – that would be the one I'd pick (though I'd be SO bored!).  Boredom is why we play the Futures.  Good trading is BORING – it's supposed to be boring as you grind out steady, consistent gains.  If your tading is exciting, you are probably doing it wrong…

One of our Memberships at PSW is our Top Trade Alert and we've sent out 6 Alerts in the
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Fearless Friday – Markets Head into the Holidays at All-Time Highs

Fri, 17 Nov 2017 13:18:16 +0000

(image) Next week is nonsense

In the US, Thanksgiving is Thursday and the markets are closed and many people take the whole week off and almost everyone is in vacation mode by Wednesday and Friday (a half-day on Wall Street) is a total joke for those who show up – often the lowest volume day of the year.  So we don't expect much action next week and certainly not a move higher and then, after Thanksgiving it's Christmas time and then New Years so let's just meet back here on Jan 2nd and see where things are, OK? 

We've been reviewing our porfolios in our Live Member Chat Room and we're well-locked in neutral already with very little gained in the past month but that's OK, as the market has made very little gains in the past months.  In fact, our last Portfolio Review was October 28th and the S&P closed that Friday at 2,581 and, this morning, we're at 2,585 so – happy holidays – see you in Januray!  

If you do insist on hanging around, you can expect more of the same in December – unless the Trump Tax Plan fails to pass the Senate, then we are likely to break below the range.  At the moment, as we've discussed before, most people are holding their equities (including us) into next year, so we can take our profits when the taxes are lower.  If no one is willing to sell (and take high-tax profits), then the new buyers are forced to offer higher prices and the market does drift higher but the low volumes indicate it may be very hard to find buyers once people do want to cash in their gains. 

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There are good strategies for locking in gains and I'll tell you a few.  Apple, for example, is at $171 and let's say you bought 1,000 shares for $120 ($120,000) and you have a $51,000 gain.  If you take that gain now, you will be taxed, for example, 38.5% ($19,635) but if you wait and next year you pay just 25% ($12,750) you are saving almost $7,000.  So your 1,000 shares of AAPL would have to fall more than $7 (4%) for it to be…
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$450M Thursday – A Least It’s a Nice Frame

Thu, 16 Nov 2017 13:27:50 +0000

(image) $450,000,000!  

That's a lot of money to spend on a painting and yet another justification for my daughter to go to art school!  It just goes to show you how rich the rich are gettin as the previous record for a painting at auction was $300M for Kooning's "Interchange" 2 years ago and this painting was previously purchased in 2013 for "only" $127.5M – how's that for inflation?  So, on this trajectory, we're only a few years away from the first Billion-Dollar painting – just in time for Madeline to graduate with her art degree!  

The buyer is mystery but look for a guy with a 26" space on his wall – that's probably him.  That's right, this is a pretty small painting but it is cool that it was painted by DaVinci 500 years ago though how they prove that, I can't say.  There was a VanGough that went for "only" $81.3M that I liked better – and it's more in my price range.

This is an indicator of how drastic income inequality is becomming in the US.  There was a roomful of people yesterday, bidding hundreds of Millions of Dollars on a painting while their pet Congresspeople are screaming to the cameras that these art lovers need massive tax breaks in order to "create jobs".  In order to give the art lovers these tax breaks, we have to give up our nacent universal health insurance, we have to cut Medicare, cut Student Loan Funding and cut Farm Subsides – all while taking on $1,500,000,000,000 in additional debt (minimum), which is enough money to buy 3,000 more paintings!  

Going long Sothebey's (BID) might be the best way to play along at home because all this money we, The People are scrificing is going to just 3M of our fellow citizens in the Top 1% and this chart is old as they now control 50% of the wealth in this country – and guess where they took the other 10% from?

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That extra blob of green on the chart is what was cut off from the top of the top 90% and it belongs to the Top 97, 98 and 99th percentiles and yes, a
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Will We Hold It Wednesday – NYSE 12,250 Edition

Wed, 15 Nov 2017 13:31:41 +0000

(image) Aren't you glad we're hedged? 

Just yesterday, in our Morning Report, we gave you an example of our Members' Portfolio Hedges we use at PhilStockWorld.  Later in the day, in our Live Member Chat Room, we made some aggressive adjustments to our main hedges in the Short-Term Portfolio Review and tightened up some covers in our Butterfly Portfolio Review.  I don't know if this week's pullback is the sign of things to come – I just know I sleep a lot better knowing we are well-hedged if things do turn sharply south.  

The big line to watch at the moment is 12,250 on the NYSE and we finished the Day just 30 points above that 50-day moving average.  Looking at the position of the MACD line (lower part of the chart) compared to the last time we crossed under the 50 dma (Aug 9th), it would now be surprising if the Senior Index doesn't drop 100 points below that line – at least.  Already this morning we're seeing some early weakness, but perhaps that's just because North Korea has declared that Trump deservs the death penalty and is calling Trump a coward for cancelling a visit to the inter-Korean border.

Or perhaps the markets are down this morning because the GOP Senate has, for some insane reason, decided to wrap up the Trump Tax Plan in a Bill to Kill Obamacare – now putting two very unpopular measures on the same bill.  We fought hard to stop this insanity back in July and here we go again (see: "Trump Orders GOP to Kill Over 4,000 People Per Month").   I know Trump's Asia trip was a disaster, but he doesn't have to come home and take it out on the poor, does he?

(image) If they fail (and God help us all if they don't), Republicans will enter the midterm election year with their message muddled, without a victory on tax reform, and having spent a year's worth of time trying and repeatedly failing to dismantle Obamacare with nothing to show for it but bad headlines. 

The Republicans want to use the $338Bn it costs to cover the uninsured ($33Bn/yr) to hand out bigger tax breaks to Billionairs – like Trump!  4M people will lose health
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