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The Big Picture



Macro Perspective on the Capital Markets, Economy, Geopolitics, Technology, and Digital Media



Last Build Date: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 21:30:03 +0000

 



Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 2.24.17

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 21:30:03 +0000

Succinct Summations for the week ending February 24th, 2017. Positives: 1. The Dow rose 11 days in a row, the longest streak since 1987. 2. Jobless claims rose to 244k, but the 4-week moving average is the lowest since 1973. 3. Existing home sales rose from 5.49M to a SAAR of 5.69M. They rose 3.3% m/o/m…

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It’s all about housing debt

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 17:00:53 +0000

From Torsten Sløk, Ph.D.: Per capita debt levels have moved essentially sideways over the past decade, see chart below, and student loan, auto loan, and credit card balances are all very low compared with mortgage debt levels. For example, student loan balances currently stand at $4920 per capita; this compares with around $34000 per capita…

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Swedroe’s Lessons for 2016

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 14:00:43 +0000

Larry Swedroe is director of research for the BAM ALLIANCE. The following was his take on what we learned last year.   Lessons for 2016 Lesson 1: Active Management Is a Loser’s Game Lesson 2: So Much of Returns Come in Very Short and Unpredictable Bursts Lesson 3: Events Occur That No One Predicted Lesson 4:…

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10 Friday AM Reads

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 13:00:15 +0000

My end of week train beach reads: • Understanding the Trump Rally (Bloomberg View) • 2017 Outsourced-Chief Investment Officer Survey (CIO) • America Needs a New Milton Friedman (Bloomberg View) see also Economists in Denial (Project Syndicate) • Paris attempts to lure business from London with new skyscrapers (Financial Times) • Your Biggest Online Security Risk Is You: How to guard against…

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2016 Aston Martin DB11

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 11:00:34 +0000

Aston always makes a good looking car:       Source: Classic Driver

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Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth?

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 10:00:52 +0000

Does Growing Mismeasurement Explain Disappointing Growth? David Byrne, John G. Fernald, and Marshall Reinsdorf FRBSF Economic Letter, February 13, 2017           Slowing growth in U.S. productivity after 2004 is sometimes blamed on measurement problems, particularly in assessing the gains from innovation in IT-related goods and services. However, mismeasurement also occurred before…

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Mauboussin on Why Poker Explains Passive vs Active Management

Fri, 24 Feb 2017 00:00:31 +0000

  Odd Lots: How Poker Explains the Battle Between Passive Investing and Active Management Source: Bloomberg  

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World Stock Markets 1899 vs 2016

Thu, 23 Feb 2017 18:30:52 +0000

Relative Sizes of World Stock Markets, 1899 vs 2016 Source: Credit Suisse via @EconomPic    

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What Would John Templeton Think?

Thu, 23 Feb 2017 14:00:26 +0000

  “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.”   You likely have heard that quote before from John Templeton, an investing hero of mine. My prior boss, another great investor, often cited it and I felt that it was an important guide in gauging what stage…

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10 Thursday AM Reads

Thu, 23 Feb 2017 13:00:18 +0000

The sea was angry that day. Let our morning train beach reads cheer you up: • “You Have to Stop” Renaissance Technologies Exec Tells Boss About Trump Support (Wall Street Journal) • Passive investing is winning despite the fog of war (Monevator) • Grantham: ‘Twas capitalism that killed capitalism (MacroBusiness) see also GMO Quarterly Letter 4Q 2016 (GMO) • Multiple Points of View…

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