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Don Marti



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Last Build Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2017 19:53:41 GMT

 



Notes and links from my talk at RJI

Sun, 03 Sep 2017 05:00:00 GMT

This is OFF MESSAGE. No Mozilla policy here. This is my personal blog. (This is the text from my talk at the Reynolds Journalism Institute's Revenue Models that Work event, with some links added. Not exactly as delivered.) Hi. I may be the token advertising optimist here. Before we write off advertising, I just want to try to figure out the answer to: why can't Internet publishers make advertising work as well as publishers used to be able to make it work when they were breathing fumes from molten lead all day? Has the Internet really made something that much worse? I have bought online advertising, written and edited for ad-supported sites, had root access to some of the servers of an adtech firm that you probably have cookies from right now, and have written an ad blocker. Now I work for Mozilla. I don't have any special knowledge on what exactly Mozilla intends to do about third-party cookies, or fingerprinting, or ad blocking, but I can share some of what I have learned about users' values, and some facts about the browser business that will inform those decision for Mozilla and other browsers. First of all, I want to cover how new privacy tools are breaking web advertising as we know it. But that's fine. People don't like web advertising as we know it. So what don't they like? A 2009 study at the University of Pennsylvania came up with the result that "most adult Americans do not want advertisers to tailor advertisements to their interests." When the researchers explained how ad targeting works, the percentage went up. We have known for quite a while that people have norms about how they share their personal information. Pagefair study That Pennsylvania study isn't the only one. Just recently a company called Pagefair did a survey on when people would choose to share their info on the web. Research result: what percentage will consent to tracking for advertising? | PageFair They surveyed 300 publishers, adtech people, brands, and various others, on whether users will consent to tracking under the GDPR and the ePrivacy Regulation. Some examples: The survey asked if users would allow for tracking on one site only, and for one brand only, in addition to “analytics partners”. 79% of respondents said they would click “No” to this limited consent request. And what kind of tracking policy would people prefer in the browser by default? The European Parliament suggested that “Accept only first party tracking” should be the default. But only 20% of respondents said they would select this. Only 5% were willing to “accept all tracking”. 56% said they would select “Reject tracking unless strictly necessary for services I request”. The very large majority (81%) of respondents said they would not consent to having their behaviour tracked by companies other than the website they are visiting. Users say that they really don't like being tracked. So, right about now is where you should be pointing out that what people say about what they want is often different from what they do. It's hard to see exactly what people do about particular ads, but we can see some indirect evidence that what people do about creepy ads is consistent with what they say about privacy. First, ad blockers didn't catch on until people started to see retargeting. Second, companies indirectly reveal their user research in policies and design decisions. Back in 1998, when Google was still "google.stanford.edu" I wrote an ad blocker. And there were a bunch of other pretty good ones in the late 1990s, too. WebWasher, AdSubtract, Internet Junkbuster. But none of that stuff caught on. That was back when most people were on dialup, and downloading a 468x60 banner ad was a big deal. That's before browsers came with pop-up blockers, so a pop-up was a whole new browser window and those could get annoying real fast. But users didn't really get into ad blocking. What changed between then and now? Retargeting. People could see that the ad on one site had "foll[...]



Some ways that bug futures markets differ from prediction markets

Wed, 30 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

Question about Bugmark: what's the difference between a futures market on software bugs and a prediction market? We don't know how much a bug futures market will tend to act like a prediction market, but here are a few guesses about how it may turn out differently.

Prediction markets tend to have a relatively small number of tradeable questions, with a large number of market participants on each side of each question. Each individual bug future is likely to have a small number of participants, at least on the "fixed" side.

Prediction markets typically have participants who are not in a position to influence the outcome. For example, The Good Judgment Project recruited regular people to trade on worldwide events. Bug futures are designed to attract participants who have special knowledge and ability to change an outcome.

Prediction markets are designed for gathering knowledge. Bug futures are for incentivizing tasks. A well-designed bug futures market will monetize haters by turning a "bet" that a project will fail into a payment that makes it more likely to succeed. If successful in this, the market will have this feature in common with Alex Tabarrok's Dominant Assurance Contract.

Prediction markets often implement conditional trading. Bug markets rely on the underlying bug tracker to maintain the dependency relationships among bugs, and trades on the market can reflect the strength of the connections among bugs as seen by the participants.




hey, kids, 2x2 chart!

Tue, 29 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

What's the difference between spam and real advertising?

No signalingSignaling
Interruptionspamadvertising
No interruption organic socialcontent marketing

Advertising is a signal for attention bargain. People pay attention to advertising that carries some hard-to-fake information about the seller's intentions in the market.

Rory Sutherland says, What seems undoubtedly true is that humans, like peahens, attach significance to a piece of communication in some way proportionally to the cost of generating or transmitting it.

If I get spam email, that's clearly signal-free because it costs practically nothing. If I see a magazine ad, it carries signal because I know that it cost money to place.

Today's web ads are more like spam, because they can be finely targeted enough that no significant advertiser resources stand behind the message I'm looking at. (A bot might have even written the copy.) People don't have to be experts in media buying to gauge the relative costs of different ads, and filter out the ones that are clearly micro-targeted and signal-free.




Want to lose a hacking contest or win a reputation contest?

Sun, 27 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

Doc Searls: How the personal data extraction industry ends. Our data, and data about us, is the crude that Facebook and Google extract, refine and sell to advertisers. This by itself would not be a Bad Thing if it were done with our clearly expressed (rather than merely implied) permission, and if we had our own valves to control personal data flows with scale across all the companies we deal with, rather than countless different valves, many worthless, buried in the settings pages of the Web’s personal data extraction systems, as well as in all the extractive mobile apps of the world. Today's web advertising business is a hacking contest. Whoever can build the best system to take personal information from the user wins, whether or not the user knows about it. (And if you challenge adfraud and adtech hackers to a hacking contest, you can expect to come in third.) As users get the tools to control who they share their information with (and they don't want to leak it to everyone) then the web advertising business has to transform into a reputation contest. Whoever can build the most trustworthy place for users to choose to share their information wins. This is why the IAB is freaking out about privacy regulations, by the way. IAB member companies are winning at hacking and failing at building reputation. (I want to do a user focus group where we show people a random IAB company's webinar, then count how many participants ask for tracking protection support afterward.) But regulations are a sideshow. In the long run regulators will support the activities that legit business needs. So Doc has an important point. We have a big opportunity to rebuild important parts of the web advertising stack, this time based on the assumption that you only get user data if you can convince the user, or at least convince the maintainers of the user's trusted tools, that you will use the data in a way that complies with that user's norms. One good place to check is: how many of a site's readers are set up with protetcion tools that make them "invisible" to Google Analytics and Chartbeat? (script) And how many of the "users" who sites are making decisions for are just bots? If you don't have good answers for those, you get dumbassery like "pivot to video" which is a polite expression for "make videos for bots because video ad impressions are worth enough money to get the best bot developers interested." Yes, "pivot to video" is still a thing, even though News from the "pivot to video" department, by Lara O'Reilly, at the Wall Street Journal: Google is issuing refunds for ads that ran on websites with fake traffic... ... Google’s refunds amount to only a fraction of the cost of the ads served to invalid traffic, which has left some advertising executives unsatisfied... ... In the recent cases Google discovered, the affected traffic involved video ads, which carry higher ad rates than typical display ads and are therefore an attractive target for fraudsters. (read the whole thing. If we're lucky, Bob Hoffman will blog about that story. "Some advertising executives unsatisfied"? Gosh, Bob, you think so?) The good news here is that legit publishers, trying to transform web advertising from a hacking game into a reputation game, don't have to do a perfect job right away. Incrementally make reputation-based, user-permissioned advertising into a better and better investment, while adfraud keeps making unpermissioned tracking into a worse and worse investment. Then wait for some ambitious marketer (and marketers are always looking for a new angle to reinvent Marketing) to discover the opportunity and take credit for it. Anyway, bonus links. Facebook Figured Out My Family Secrets, And It Won't Tell Me How This App Tracks Political Ads To See Who Is Targeting Your Vote–And Why Designers are using “dark UX” to turn you into a sleep-de[...]



List-based and behavior-based tracking protection

Tue, 22 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

In the news...

User privacy is at risk from both hackers and lawyers. Right now, lawyers are better at attacking lists, and hackers are better at modifying tracker behavior to get around protections.

The more I think about it, the more that I think it's counterproductive to try to come up with one grand unified set of protection rules or cookie policies for everybody.

Spam filters don't submit their scoring rules to ANSI—spammers would just work around them.

Search engines don't standardize and publish their algorithms, because gray hat SEOs would just use the standard to make useless word salad pages that score high.

And different people have different needs.

If you're a customer service rep at an HERBAL ENERGY SUPPLEMENTS company, you need a spam filter that can adjust for your real mail. And any user of a site that has problems with list-based tracking protection will need to have the browser adjust, and rely more on cleaning up third-party state after a session instead of blocking outright.

Does your company intranet become unusable if you fail to accept third-party tracking that comes from an internal domain that your employer acquired and still has some services running on? Browser developers can't decide up front, so the browser will need to adjust. Every change breaks someone's workflow.

That means the browser has to work to help the user pick a working set of protection methods and rules.

0. Send accurate Do Not Track

Inform sites of the user’s preferences on data sharing. (This will be more important in the future because Europe, but privacy-crazed Eurocrats will not save us from having to do our share of the work.

1. Block connections to third-party trackers

This will need to include both list-based protection and monitoring tracking behavior, like Privacy Badger, because hackers and lawyers are good at getting around different ones.

2. Limit data sent to third-party sites

Apple Safari does this, so it's likely to get easier to do cookie double keying without breaking sites.

3. Scramble or delete unsafe data

If a tracking cookie or other identifier does get through, delete or scramble it on leaving the site or later, as the Self-Destructing Cookies extension does. This could be a good backup for when the browser "learns" that a user needs some third-party state to do something like a shopping cart or comment form, but then doesn't want the info to be used for "ads that follow me around" later.




How is everyone's tracking protection working? An update

Sun, 20 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

When I set up this blog, I put in a script to check how many of the users here are protected from third-party tracking.

The best answer for now is 31%. Of the clients that ran JavaScript on this site over the past two weeks, 31% did not also run JavaScript from the Aloodo "fake third-party tracker".

The script is here: /code/check3p

This is not as good as I had hoped (turn on your tracking protection, people! Don't get tricked by ad blockers that leave you unprotected by default!) but it's a start.

The Information Trust Exchange is doing research on the problem of third-party tracking at news sites. News industry consultant Greg Swanson:

All of the conversations on the newspaper side have been focused on how can we join the advertising technology ecosystem. For example, how can a daily newspaper site in Bismarck, North Dakota deliver targeted advertising to a higher-value soccer mom? And none of the newspapers them have considered the fact that when they join that ecosystem they are enabling spam sites, fraudulent sites – enabling those sites to get a higher CPM rate by parasitically riding on the data collected from the higher-value newspaper sites.

More info: Aloodo for web publishers.




SEO hats and the browser of the future

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

The field of Search Engine Optimization has white hat SEO, black hat SEO, and gray hat SEO. White hat SEO helps a user get a better search result, and complies with search engine policies. Examples include accurately using the same words that users search on, and getting honest inbound links. Black hat SEO is clearly against search engine policies. Link farming, keyword stuffing, cloaking, and a zillion other schemes. If they see you doing it, your site gets penalized in search results. Gray hat SEO is everything that doesn't help the user get a better search result, but technically doesn't violate a search engine policy. Most SEO experts advise you not to put a lot of time and effort into gray hat, because eventually the search engines will notice your gray hat scheme and start penalizing sites that do it. Gray hat is just stuff that's going to be black hat when the search engines figure it out. Adtech has gray hat, too. Rocket Fuel Awarded Two Patents to Help Leverage First-Party Cookies to More Meaningfully Reach Consumers. This scheme seems to be intended to get around existing third-party cookie protection, which is turned on by default in Apple Safari and available in other browsers. But how long will it work? Maybe the browser of the future won't run a "kangaroo cookie court" but will ship with a built-in "kangaroo law school" so that each copy of the browser will develop its own local "courts" and its own local "case law" based on the user's choices. It will become harder to predict how long any single gray hat adtech scheme will continue working. In the big picture: in order to sell advertising you need to give the advertiser some credible information on who the audience is. Since the "browser wars" of the 1990s, most browsers have been bad at protecting personal information about the user, so web advertising has become a game where a whole bunch of companies compete to covertly capture as much user info as they can. Today, browsers are getting better at implementing people's preferences about sharing their information. The result is a change in the rules of the game. Investment in taking people's personal info is becoming less rewarding, as browsers compete to reflect people's preferences. (That patent will be irrelevant thanks to browser updates long before it expires.) Adfraud is the other half of this story. Fraudbots are getting smarter at creating human-looking ad impressions just as humans are getting better protected. If you think that a web publisher's response to harder-to-detect bots, viewing more high-CPM video ads, should be "pivot to video!!1!!" I don't know if I can help you. And investments in building sites and brands that are trustworthy enough for people to want to share their information will tend to become more rewarding. (This shift naturally leads to complaints from people who are used to winning the old game, but will probably be better for customers who want to use trustworthy brands and for people who want to earn money by making ad-supported news and cultural works.) Bonus links One of the big advertising groups is partnering with Digital Content Next’s trust-focused ad marketplace Partisanship, Propaganda, and Disinformation: Online Media and the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election ANA Endorses TrustX, Encourages Members To Use Programmatic Media-Buying Stamp Of Approval Call for Papers: Policy and Internet Special Issue on Reframing ‘Fake News’: Architectures, Influence, and Automation Time to sink the Admiral (or, why using the DMCA to block adblockers is a bad move) I'm a woman in computer science. Let me ladysplain the Google memo to you. Easylist block list removes entry after DMCA takedown notice Will Cities Ever Outsmart Rats? Uber drivers gang up to cause surge pricing, research says Google reveals s[...]



cdparanoia returned code 73

Fri, 18 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

Welcome, people googling for the above error message.

I saw the error

cdparanoia returned code 73

and it turns out I was trying to run two abcde processes in two terminal windows. Kill the second one and the error goes away.

Hope your problem was as simple as that.




ePrivacy and marketing budgets

Wed, 16 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

(Update 18 Aug 2017: this post is also available at Digital Content Next.) As far as I know, there are three ways to match an ad to a user. User intent: Show an ad based on what the user is searching for. Old-school version: the Yellow Pages. Context: Show an ad based on where the user is, or what the user is interested in. Old-school versions: highway billboards (geographic context), specialized magazines (interest context). User identity: Show an ad based on who the user is. Old-school version: direct mail. Most online advertising is matched to the user based on a mix of all three. And different players have different pieces of the action for each one. For user intent, search engines are the gatekeepers. The other winners from matching ads to users by intent are browsers and mobile platforms, who get paid to set their default search engine. Advertising based on context rewards the owners of reputations for producing high-quality news, information, and cultural works. Finally, user identity now has a whole Lumascape of vendors in a variety of categories, all offering to help identify users in some way. (the Lumascape is rapidly consolidating, but that's another story.) Few of the web ads that you might see today are matched to you purely based on one of the three methods. Investments in all three tend to shift as the available technology, and the prevailing norms and laws, change. Enough background. Randall Rothenberg of the IAB is concerned about the proposed ePrivacy Regulation in Europe, and writes, The basic functionality of the internet, which is built on data exchanges between a user’s computer and publishers’ servers, can no longer be used for the delivery of advertising unless the consumer agrees to receive the ads – but the publisher must deliver content to that consumer regardless. This doesn't look accurate. I don't know of any proposal that would require publishers to serve users who block ads entirely. What Rothenberg is really complaining about is that the proposed regulation would limit the ability of sites and ad intermediaries to match ads to users based on user identity, forcing them to rely on user intent and context. If users choose to block ads delivered from ad servers that use their personal data without permission, then sites won't be able to refuse to serve them the content, but will be able to run ads that are relevant to the content of the site. As far as I can tell, sites would still be able to pop a "turn off your ad blocker" message in place of a news story if the user was blocking an ad placed purely by context, magazine style. Privacy regulation is not so much an attack on the basic functionality of the Internet, as it is a shift that lowers the return on investment on knowing who the user is, and drives up the return on investment on providing search results and content. That's a big change in who gets paid: more money for search and for trustworthy content brands, and less for adtech intermediaries that depend on user tracking. Advertising: a fair deal for the user? That depends. Search advertising is clearly the result of a user choice. The user chooses to view ads that come with search results, as part of choosing to do a search. As long as the ads are marked as ads, it's pretty obvious what is happening. The same goes for ads placed in context. The advertiser trades economic signal, in the form of costly support of an ad-supported resource, for the user's attention. This is common in magazine and broadcast advertising, and when you use a site with one of the (rare) pure in-context ad platforms such as Project Wonderful, it works about the same way. The place where things start to get problematic is ads based on user identity, placed by tracking users from site to site. The more that users learn how their data is[...]



Moral values in society

Tue, 08 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

Moral values in society are collapsing? Really? Elizabeth Stoker Bruenig writes, The baseline moral values of poor people do not, in fact, differ that much from those of the rich. (read the whole thing).

Unfortunately, if you read the fine print, it's more complicated than that. Any market economy depends on establishing trust between people who trade with each other. Tim Harford writes,

Being able to trust people might seem like a pleasant luxury, but economists are starting to believe that it’s rather more important than that. Trust is about more than whether you can leave your house unlocked; it is responsible for the difference between the richest countries and the poorest.

Somehow, over thousands of years, business people have built up a set of norms about high-status and low-status business activities. Craftsmanship, consistent supply of high-quality staple goods, and construction of noteworthy projects are high-status activities. Usury and deception are examples of low-status activities. (You make your money in quarters, gambling with retired people? You lend people $100 until Friday at a 300% interest rate? No club invitation for you.)

Somehow, though, that is now changing in the USA. Those who earn money through deception now have seats at the same table as legitimate business. Maybe it started with the shift into "consumer credit" by respectable banks. But why were high-status bankers willing to play loan shark to begin with? Something had to have been building, culturally. (It started too early to blame the Baby Boomers.)

We tend to blame information technology companies for complex, one-sided Terms of Service and EULAs, but it's not so much a tech trend as it is a general business culture trend. It shows up in tech fast, because rapid technology change provides cover and concealment for simultaneous changes in business terms. US business was rapidly losing its connection to basic norms when it was still moving at the speed of FedEx and fax. (You can't say, all of a sudden, "car crashes in existing fast-food drive-thrus are subject to arbitration in Unfreedonia" but you can stick that kind of term into a new service's ToS.) There's some kind of relativistic effect going on. Tech bros just seem like bigger douchebags because they're moving faster.

Regulation isn't the answer. We have a system in which business people can hire lobbyists to buy the laws and regulations we want. The question is whether we're going to use our regulatory capture powers in a shortsighted, society-eroding hustler way, or in a conservative way. Economic conservatism means not just limiting centralized state control of capital, but preserving the balance among all the long-standing stewards of capital, including households, municipalities, and religious and educational institutions. Economic conservatism and radical free-marketism are fundamentally different.

People blame trashy media for the erosion of norms among the poor, so let's borrow that explanation for the erosion of norms among the rich as well. Maybe our problem with business norms results from the globablization and sensationalism of business media. Joe CEO isn't just the most important corporate leader of Mt. Rose, MN, any more—on a global scale he's just another broke-ass hustler.




Pragmatists for copyleft, or, corporate hive minds don't accept software licenses

Sun, 06 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

One of the common oversimplifications in discussing open-source software licenses is that copyleft licenses are "idealistic" while non-copyleft licenses are "pragmatic." But that's not all there is to it.

The problem is that most people redistributing licensed code are doing so in an organizational context. And no human organization is a hive mind where those who participate within it subordinate their goals to that of the collective. Human organizations are full of of people with their own motivations.

Instead of treating the downstrem developer's employer as a hive mind, it can be more producive to assume good faith on the part of the individual who intends to contribute to the software, and think about the license from the point of view of a real person.

Releasing source for a derivative work costs time and money. The well-intentioned "downstream" contributor wants his or her organization to make those investments, but he or she has to make a case for them. The presence of copyleft helps steer the decision in the right direction. Jane Hacker at an organization planning to release a derivative work can say, matter-of-factly, "we need to comply with the upstream license" if copyleft is involved. The organization is then more likely to do the right thing. There are always violations, but the license is a nudge in the right direction.

(The extreme case is university licensing offices. University-owned software patents can exclude a graduate student from his or her own project when the student leaves the university, unless he or she had the foresight to build it as a derivative work of something under copyleft.)

Copyleft isn't a magic commons-building tool, and it isn't right for every situation. But it can be enough to push an organization over the line. (One place where I worked had to a do a source release for one dependency licensed under GPLv2, and it turned out to be easist to just build one big source code release with all the dependencies in it, and offer that.)




More random links

Sun, 06 Aug 2017 05:00:00 GMT

Not the Google story everyone is talking about, but related: Google Is Matching Your Offline Buying With Its Online Ads, But It Isn’t Sharing How. (If a company becomes known for doing creepy shit, it will get job applications from creepy people, and at a large enough company some of them will get hired. Related: The Al Capone theory of sexual harassment) Least surprising news story ever: The Campaign Against Facebook And Google's Ad "Duopoly" Is Going Nowhere Independent online publishers can't beat the big surveillance marketing companies at surveillance marketing? How about they try to beat Amazon and Microsoft at cloud services, or Apple and Lenovo at laptop computers? There are possible winning strategies for web publishers, but doing the same as the incumbents with less money and less data is not one of them. Meanwhile, from an investor point of view: It’s the Biggest Scandal in Tech (and no one’s talking about it) Missing the best investment advice: get out of any B-list adtech company that is at risk of getting forced into a low-value acquisition by a sustained fraud story. Or short it and research the fraud story yourself. Did somebody at The Atlantic get a loud phone notification during a classical music concert or something? Your Smartphone Reduces Your Brainpower, Even If It's Just Sitting There and Have Smartphones Destroyed A Generation?, by Jean M. Twenge, The Atlantic Good news: Math journal editors resign to start rival open-access journal Apple’s Upcoming Safari Changes Will Shake Up Ad Tech: Not surprisingly, Facebook and Amazon are the big winners in this change. Most of their users come every day or at least every week. And even the mobile users click on links often, which, on Facebook, takes them to a browser. These companies will also be able to buy ad inventory on Safari at lower prices because many of the high-dollar bidders will go away. A good start by Apple, but other browsers can do better. (Every click on a Facebook ad from a local business is $0.65 of marketing money that's not going to local news, Little League sponsorships, and other legit places.) Still on the upward slope of the Peak Advertising curve: Facebook 'dark ads' can swing political opinions, research shows You’re more likely to hear from tech employers if you have one of these 10 things on your resume (and only 2 of them are proprietary. These kids today don't know how good they have it.) The Pac-Man Rule at Conferences How “Demo-or-Die” Helped My Career [...]