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Editor's Blog

Updated: 2016-10-24T20:15:00Z


Was IBD/TIPP The Most Accurate in 2012? Nope


For days Donald Trump has been banging this gong about being ahead in the IBD/TIPP poll which he says was the most accurate poll in 2012. They're now claiming it was also the most accurate in 2008 and 2004. This has been driving me a bit nuts since this is unquestionably false. I decided to check my memory. So I went back to look the latest polls in 2012. Here's what I found.

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We're in the Universal Derp Implosion


Donald Trump is giving a raging, rambling speech with accusations against everyone and everything. But there's one thing he flagged that everyone needs to understand the details about.

Here's what he said ...

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Like a Bad TV Movie Now


Trump takes a sarcastic dig at adult film star accuser: "I'm sure she's never been grabbed before."




The retiring Harry Reid tells TPM's Lauren Fox that he has set the stage for Democrats to nuke the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees if Republicans block Clinton's nominee(s).

"They mess with the Supreme Court, it'll be changed just like that in my opinion," Reid said, snapping his fingers together.

Worth reading.


Was the Debate Dodge Trump's Undoing?


Given the outsized impact of David Fahrenthold's reporting on the election, I've been wondering for a while what the genesis of that reporting was. The first it came across my radar was when Fahrenthold managed to prove and then shame Donald Trump into actually coughing up the $1 million for veterans' causes that he had pledged during a fundraiser he held in January. I figured that was the origin of it. Now we have confirmation.

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10/24 Election Update


It's October 24 and the PollTracker Average stands at Clinton 50.2 percent, Trump 42 percent, an 8.2 percentage-point spread

The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 323, Trump 177. Evan McMullin is leading in Utah, worth six electoral votes. Alaska, Arizona, and Ohio are in the Toss Up category.

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Trump's Low Energy Close?


For months, more than a year actually, I've been writing about the hunger for dominance and revenge that drives Trump and the campaign and movement he's built in his image. Even in the face of looming defeat he's cultivated an atmosphere of menace, calling the country's voting system rigged and hinting he may defy an adverse verdict at the polls. And yet, coming off the final debate, even with continued talk about rigged elections and cherry-picked polls which duck the trend predicting a devastating defeat, we seem to be seeing something different: the emergence of bitter and dejected low-energy Trump.

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The Internals of the ABC Poll Could Be a Big Deal


It is only one poll, as they say. But this ABC poll may be a big deal. See this not as something that is happening but a sign of a possible trend which, if backed up by other polls over the next two weeks, could be the story of the 2016 election.

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In response to my post last night about voting lines, I had a number of people write in saying they've never waited more than a few minutes to vote - often people in their 50s or 60s and older, so people who've voted in a lot of elections. And most of those people asked, how does that even happen? What's the root cause? Obviously in any given election, in any given precinct, you can have a random malfunction or screw up that leads to long lines. In theory, that can happen anywhere. But the cause of long lines in the vast majority of cases is really, really simple. Depending on where you vote, the number of voting machines and precinct workers per eligible voter can vary wildly. If one polling station has one polling machine per x eligible voters and another has one per 50x eligible voters, the outcome is pretty obvious. And there are numerous studies showing that precincts with a lot of poor and/or non-whites have on average many fewer voting machines, poll workers, etc. Some of this is by design; some of it is a recapitulation of the same structural dynamics that leave underprivileged communities under-resourced across the board. Same difference.


The Shame and the Glory


We're now seeing numerous examples across the country of extremely long lines and long waits to vote - especially in states which took steps since 2012 to make it harder to vote and vote early. North Carolina is one of the best examples of this. People are waiting three and four hours to vote. It's genuinely shameful that we, as a society, find this acceptable. And yet millions of people are lining up to vote. They are undeterred.

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Let's Talk about the Senate


The TPM Senate Scoreboard currently stands at 49(D)-48(R) with three states in the toss-up category: North Carolina, Missouri and Nevada.

But I'm starting to get the sense that Democrats may significantly over-perform what has been a close fought, essentially tied race for control of the Senate. Here's why.

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Four More


We are four sign-ups away from 15,500 TPM Prime members. We keep making progress toward the goal of ultimate goal of 20,000 members. Help us get to today's milestone. Click here.


First Term Agenda: Suing the Liars


Donald Trump is laying out out his agenda for his first hundred days in office. A major part will be suing all the "liars" who accused him of sexual assault. “All of these liars will be sued after the election,” Trump told a crowd in Gettysburg. He'll also use discovery to unearth evidence against the Clintons being involved in creating the false accusations.


PA GOP on Board with Trump Vote Suppression


The Pennsylvania GOP has sued to allow Pennsylvania to be poll watchers outside the counties they live in - which is not currently allowed by state law. It sounds very much like Trump's call for supporters to go to "other communities" to patrol for voter fraud.


Thank God for Airbags


Thank God for airbags and car safety. Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) was in a high speed car crash Thursday afternoon but he and apparently all others involved are basically fine, albeit a bit bruised up. Safety belts, airbags. They really make a difference.


Just 37 More!


We're just 37 Prime signups shy of 15,500 total members! Help us get there tonight. Just click right here.


This Is Kind of Fun


My sons came home from school today wanting to play an online 'Win the White House' game they learned about and played at school. A bit worn out from covering the real thing, I first kind of begged off. But my sons are highly persistent - especially one of them who shall remain unnamed. So I finally agreed. And you know what? It was pretty fun.

It was fun playing with them of course. But it was even enjoyable and a bit challenging in its own right. It's pretty straightforward. You have a national electoral map. You can fundraise, poll, run media and make appearances. And it's basically a matter of a matter of figuring out where to focus your resources based on the best opportunities to pick up or not lose electoral votes. In other words, something like the real thing. Along the way, you have to identify campaign messages tied to specific issues. That's most of the educational aspect - understanding basic formulations and positions on high profile policy issues - taxes, gun, environment, energy, spending, etc. Pretty basic if you're an adult politics junkie. But definitely educational for a kid and some non-kids. Anyway, if you have children of almost any edge (you can play at different educational difficulty levels) you might want to give it a spin. And if you don't have kids, frankly, I found it pretty fun anyway. Here's the link.


My New Podcast: Episode #7


Concerned about voter suppression? Bands of feral Trumpers descending areas with large populations of black or Hispanic voters to harass and vet voters? Me too. So in Episode #7 of the Josh Marshall show I talked to my favorite election law expert, Professor Rick Hasen. Rick isn't just an election law experts he's one of the most knowledgable and vocal experts on bogus claims of 'vote fraud' and voters suppression. We talk about all these issues, incredibly pressing in the lead up to election day, in Episode #7 of the Josh Marshall Show.


Bye, Chris


Bridget Kelly, former deputy chief of staff to Gov. Chris Christie now on trial for her role in Bridgegate, says yes Christie knew all about the scheme.

Remember, Christie got the State of New Jersey to spend millions of dollars on an investigation, run by his own lawyer, which exonerated him.


Trump Has a New Enemy


Her name is Michelle Obama.