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Arms Control Wonk

an arms control blog network

Last Build Date: Mon, 16 Oct 2017 03:27:51 +0000


Act I: The Iran Deal Begins to Unravel

Sat, 14 Oct 2017 20:21:38 +0000

Quote of the Week: “Dear Mr. Fantasy play us a tune Something to make us all happy Do anything, take us out of this gloom Sing a song, play guitar, make it snappy” —Stevie Winwood Another wave of leaked accounts has washed through the media about Donald Trump’s unsuitability to have direct access to America’s …(image)

Guest post: Halloween comes early for the Iran Deal

Thu, 12 Oct 2017 22:24:29 +0000

President Trump has justified his threat to “decertify” the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or “Iran deal,” less by any material failures of compliance than by asserting that Iran has “violated the spirit of that deal,” which boils down to the observation that Iran and the USA are on the opposite sides of unrelated …(image)

Implement the JCPOA

Wed, 04 Oct 2017 17:05:10 +0000

Very shortly, the United States government will make decisions about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that may have immediate and profound implications for Iran and the U.S; for the future of the Middle East; and for global efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear arms. The JCPOA ultimately rests upon the authority of …(image)

Stale Thinking on Tac Nukes Reheated

Wed, 04 Oct 2017 13:43:15 +0000

Quote of the week: “Neither a viable posture nor a viable doctrine exist … for the employment of tactical nuclear weapons.” —William R. Van Cleave and S.T. Cohen, Tactical Nuclear Weapons (1978) As the confrontation with North Korea builds, there is growing sentiment within South Korea to reintroduce U.S. tactical nuclear weapons withdrawn when the …(image)

Guest Post: Consequences of Testing an H-Bomb in the Pacific

Mon, 02 Oct 2017 21:51:46 +0000

Friend and CNS Scientist-in-Residence Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress has written a detailed primer on what might happen if North Korea detonates a hydrogen bomb over the waters of the Pacific Ocean. We’re pleased to bring it to you here. Effects of a Potential Thermonuclear Test by North Korea in the Pacific Ferenc Dalnoki-Veress For more than fifty …(image)

Domestic UDMH Production in the DPRK

Wed, 27 Sep 2017 16:30:58 +0000

We were surprised by the recent debate about whether North Korea can domestically produce UDMH.  Working with my colleagues at CNS, we have translated several North Korean scientific papers documenting North Korea’s domestic production of UDMH and identified at least one of the sites probably associated with UDMH production, the February 8 Vinalon Complex in …(image)

Two Fantasists, No Exit Strategy

Wed, 27 Sep 2017 05:24:42 +0000

Quotes of the week: “This is a presidency whose defining feature isn’t ideology, much less policy. It’s neurosis.” —Bret Stephens, New York Times “If in a fit of pique he decides to do something about Kim Jong Un, there’s actually very little to stop him. The whole system is built to ensure rapid response if …(image)

Nuclear Deterrence and the Revenge of Geography

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 19:57:32 +0000

(Now with a handful of minor corrections and an update.)  With the President overriding his advisers to deliver insulting remarks and empty threats at the UN and Kim Jong Un responding personally and at some length, one really wonders where all this ends.   John Kelly, left, reacts as he listens to President Trump’s U.N. speech. (Photo: Mary …(image)

Deal Maker or Deal Breaker? Donald Trump’s Approach to Diplomacy

Fri, 22 Sep 2017 21:55:00 +0000

While I get bogged down in the details of how and when North Korea makes something go boom, the smart and much more diplomatic Sarah Bidgood takes a crack at understanding what President Trump’s statement at the UN General Assembly will do for multilateral negotiation.  Author: Sarah Bidgood I am assisting Dr. William Potter with …(image)

Pyrrhic Victories and Draws

Mon, 18 Sep 2017 15:32:17 +0000

Quote of the week: “What history will remember is not the ideals we were fighting for, but the methods we used to accomplish them.” — Hans Bethe In “Lonesome Day,” Bruce Springsteen offered this hopeful lyric: Hell’s brewing, dark sun’s on the rise This storm will blow through by and by House is on fire, …(image)