Subscribe: Grasping Reality with Opposable Thumbs
http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/atom.xml
Added By: Feedage Forager Feedage Grade B rated
Language: English
Tags:
health care  health  income  interest rates  monetary policy  monetary  policy  reinhart rogoff  reinhart  rogoff  top income  trump 
Rate this Feed
Rate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feedRate this feed
Rate this feed 1 starRate this feed 2 starRate this feed 3 starRate this feed 4 starRate this feed 5 star

Comments (0)

Feed Details and Statistics Feed Statistics
Preview: Grasping Reality with Opposable Thumbs

Grasping Reality with All Tentacles: bradford-delong.com:





Updated: 2017-04-30T20:19:19-07:00

 




2017-04-24T15:16:37-07:00

---- ### **Plus: Must-Reads:** * **Matthew Yglesias**: _If you really respect Trump voters, tell them the truth_: "A wave of recent columns argue that what Trump superfans... * **Ezra Klein**: _The GOP’s biggest health care achievement has been making Obamacare more popular_: "It is bizarre watching House Republicans persuade themselves that the problem they face on health care... ---- **Links:** * **Alan Auerbach et al.**: _How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms_



Procrastinating on April 24, 2017

2017-04-24T16:30:11-07:00

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must- and Should-Reads:** * **A Low-Pressure Economy Is Not Only Dark But Invisible in the Horserace Noah Smith is Running… | Equitable Growth** * **Bridget Ansel**: _Weekend reading: “This post is tax-ing” edition | Equitable Growth_ * **Matthew Yglesias**: _If you really respect Trump voters, tell them the truth_: "A wave of recent columns argue that what Trump superfans... * **Ezra Klein**: _The GOP’s biggest health care achievement has been making Obamacare more popular_: "It is bizarre watching House Republicans persuade themselves that the problem they face on health care... * **Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan**: _Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes_: "IRS and SSA data reveal diverging patterns in top income shares... * **Kevin Drum**: _We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time_: "The most remarkable feature of this chart... * **Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor**: _Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?_: "How do we know that higher interest rates will bring prices under control?... * **Chris Hayes**: _On escaping the “doom loop” of Trump's presidency_: "I tend to think of it in terms of my own behavior... * **Hyun Song Shin**: _Accounting... Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads: A Low-Pressure Economy Is Not Only Dark But Invisible in the Horserace Noah Smith is Running… | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/a-low-pressure-economy-is-not-only-dark-but-invisible-in-the-horserace-noah-smith-is-running/ Bridget Ansel: Weekend reading: “This post is tax-ing” edition | Equitable Growthhttp://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-this-post-is-tax-ing-edition/ Matthew Yglesias: If you really respect Trump voters, tell them the truth: "A wave of recent columns argue that what Trump superfans... http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/24/15375206/respect-trump-voters-truth Ezra Klein: The GOP’s biggest health care achievement has been making Obamacare more popular: "It is bizarre watching House Republicans persuade themselves that the problem they face on health care... https://www.vox.com/obamacare/2017/4/20/15373092/republicans-made-obamacare-more-popular Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes: "IRS and SSA data reveal diverging patterns in top income shares... http://papers.nber.org/w23321.pdf Kevin Drum: We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time: "The most remarkable feature of this chart... http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/04/were-now-second-biggest-housing-boom-all-time Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?: "How do we know that higher interest rates will bring prices under control?... http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/april/monetary-policy-medicine-using-quasi-random-experiments/ Chris Hayes: On escaping the “doom loop” of Trump's presidency: "I tend to think of it in terms of my own behavior... https://www.vox.com/2017/4/19/15356534/chris-hayes-donald-trump-media-elections-2016-criminal-justice Hyun Song Shin: Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix: "In emerging market economies especially, a weakening of the domestic currency against the dollar saps both cross-border bank lending and investment... http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp170419.htm Interesting Reads: Alan Auerbach et al.: How the Growing Gap in Life Expectancy May Affect Retirement Benefits and Reforms http://papers.nber.org/tmp/16516-w23329.pdf Martin Wolf: Dealing with America’s trade follies https://www.ft.com/content/fca7e9a4-2366-11e7-a34a-538b4cb30025: "Its policies will fail to reduce deficits—for which foreigners will be blamed..." Benjamin Wallace-Wells: The Despair of Learning That Experience No Longer Matters http://www.newyorker.com/news/benjamin-wallace-wells/the-despair-of-learning-that-exper[...]




2017-04-24T15:55:34-07:00

**Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias**: _If you really respect Trump voters, tell them the truth_: "A wave of recent columns argue that what Trump superfans... >...or at least some hazily imagined, hard-pressed Northern working-class version of them—really want is respect. By all appearances, though, the opposite is the case. Those voters want what most voters want from politicians: to be disrespected, via shameless pandering and the occasional blatant lie. This was true of the men I spoke to in Bucksport, Maine, in the summer of 2016.... They seemed most of all to want to be told that reopening the [paper] mill was a realistic dream, even though it almost certainly is not. That doesn’t make Trump fans unique. It makes them normal.... >But if you really respect people and really want to help them, you need to level with them.... When my grandparents were growing up in Brooklyn, it was a great hub of American manufacturing. Those jobs vanished, hard times ensued, and between 1950 and 1980 the borough lost nearly 20 percent of its population. Things have turned around over the course of my lifetime. But the specific lost jobs never came back.... Seattle, San Francisco, and other prosperous metropolitan areas,...



A Low-Pressure Economy Is Not Only Dark But Invisible in the Horserace Noah Smith is Running...

2017-04-24T15:49:32-07:00

I think the estimable Noah Smith gets this one wrong. He writes: **Noah Smith**: _Cracking the Mystery of Labor's Falling Share of GDP_: "Economists are very worried about the decline in labor’s share of U.S. national income... >...For decades, macroeconomic models assumed that labor and capital took home roughly constant portions of output—labor got just a bit less than two-thirds of the pie, capital slightly more than one-third. Nowadays it’s more like 60-40. Economists are therefore scrambling to explain the change. There are, by my count, now four main potential explanations for the mysterious slide in labor's share. These are: 1) China, 2) robots, 3) monopolies and 4) landlords..." There is, in my view, a fifth—and a much more likely—possibility: the low-pressure economy. The first misstep Noah takes is in saying that 100% of national income is divided between "labor" and "capital". It is not. Entrepreneurship, risk-bearing, innovation, monopoly rents, and other factors are rolled into the non-labor share as well. It's not the labor share and the capital share. It's the labor share and everything else. Suppose that you were not attached to sophisticated economic theory but just believed in the basic Adam Smith supply-and-demand: when something is in...



Weekend Reading: Henry Farrell: Fourteen Years of Krauthammer Days

2017-04-23T16:50:08-07:00

**Weekend Reading: Henry Farrell**: _Fourteen Years of Krauthammer Days_: "Today is the fourteenth anniversary of the day when Charles Krauthammer announced to the world... >>...Hans Blix had five months to find weapons. He found nothing. We’ve had five weeks. Come back to me in five months. If we haven’t found any, we will have a credibility problem. >It’s now been 168 months since that confident pronouncement–or, put differently, we’ve seen 33.6 Krauthammer Credibility Intervals come, and then go, without any sign of self-assessment, let alone personal acceptance of responsibility for his prominent cheerleading for a war that led to hundreds of thousands of deaths. Still out there opining.



Hoisted: Mike Konczal (2013): Reinhart-Rogoff A Week Later: Why Does This Matter?

2017-04-23T06:08:10-07:00

**Hoisted from Mike Konczal's Archives:Mike Konczal** (2013): [Reinhart-Rogoff A Week Later: Why Does This Matter?](http://seekingalpha.com/article/1368661-reinhart-rogoff-a-week-later-why-does-this-matter): "Well this is progress... >...We are seeing subtle distancing by conservative writers on the Reinhart/Rogoff thesis. In Feburary, Douglas Holtz-Eakin wrote: >>The debt hurts the economy already. The canonical work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff and its successors carry a clear message: countries that have gross government debt in excess of 90% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are in the debt danger zone. Entering the zone means slower economic growth. Granted, the research is not yet robust enough to say exactly when and how a crisis will engulf the US, but there is no reason to believe that America is somehow immune.' (h/t QZ.) >Today, Holtz-Eakin writes about Reinhart and Rogoff in _National Review_, but drops the 'canonical' status. >Now they are just two random people with some common sense the left is beating up: >>In order to distract from the dismal state of analytic and actual economic affairs, the latest tactic is to blame... two researchers, Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff, who made the reasonable observation that ever-larger amounts of debt must eventually be associated with bad economic news. >That's not actually what... Hoisted from Mike Konczal's Archives:Mike Konczal (2013): Reinhart-Rogoff A Week Later: Why Does This Matter?: "Well this is progress... ...We are seeing subtle distancing by conservative writers on the Reinhart/Rogoff thesis. In Feburary, Douglas Holtz-Eakin wrote: The debt hurts the economy already. The canonical work of Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff and its successors carry a clear message: countries that have gross government debt in excess of 90% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) are in the debt danger zone. Entering the zone means slower economic growth. Granted, the research is not yet robust enough to say exactly when and how a crisis will engulf the US, but there is no reason to believe that America is somehow immune.' (h/t QZ.) Today, Holtz-Eakin writes about Reinhart and Rogoff in National Review, but drops the 'canonical' status. Now they are just two random people with some common sense the left is beating up: In order to distract from the dismal state of analytic and actual economic affairs, the latest tactic is to blame... two researchers, Carmen Reinhardt and Kenneth Rogoff, who made the reasonable observation that ever-larger amounts of debt must eventually be associated with bad economic news. That's not actually what they said, and if you read Holtz-Eakin in February Reinhart-Rogoff is sufficient evidence to enact the specific plans he wants. Now there's no defense of the 'danger zone' argument, just the idea that the stimulus failed. Retreat! This is getting a bigger audience. (If you haven't seen The Colbert Report on the Reinhart/Rogoff issue, it's fantastic.) But going forward, a plan beats no plan. And a critique isn't a plan. So what should we conclude about Reinhart-Rogoff a week later, now that the critique seems to have won? How should the government approach the debt? One thing about the 'cliff' metaphor is that there's no tradeoff that would make it acceptable. If you are driving, there are all kinds of trade-offs you make with your route, but you'd never agree to a trade-off that has you driving off a cliff. There were numerous other ways of describing this scenario, either the technical 'nonlinearities' or the 'danger zone' of Eakin just a few motnhs ago. With the danger zone metaphor now out of play, perhaps economists can see the relevant trade-offs more clearly. Reinhart-Rogoff stand with a small negative relationship between debt and growth, one that is likely driven by low growth rather than high debt. And despite what you've heard, there's no literat[...]




2017-04-23T05:57:15-07:00

**Must-Read: Ezra Klein**: _The GOP’s biggest health care achievement has been making Obamacare more popular_: "It is bizarre watching House Republicans persuade themselves that the problem they face on health care... >...is cutting a deal between the Freedom Caucus and the Tuesday Group rather than crafting legislation that people actually like, and that will actually make some part of the health care system noticeably better. But the GOP’s refusal to take public opinion even mildly into account has put them in a disastrous position. >I’m not sure Republicans realize how deep a hole they’re in on this issue. But here’s a way to make it clear. Obamacare is now significantly more popular than Donald Trump, Mike Pence, Paul Ryan, the Republican Party, or the American Health Care Act...



Links for the Week of April 23, 2017

2017-04-23T05:51:37-07:00

**Must-Reads:** 1. **Kevin Drum**: _We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time_: "The most remarkable feature of this chart... 2. **Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor**: _Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?_: "How do we know that higher interest rates will bring prices under control?... 3. **Rick Perlstein**: _I Thought I Understood the American Right. Trump Proved Me Wrongs_: "Direct-mail pioneers like Richard Viguerie created hair-on-fire campaign-fund-raising letters... 4. **Financial Times**: _Donald Trump Beats a Retreat_: "Another week, another series of flip-flops by America’s president... 5. **Ezra Klein**: _The GOP’s problem on health reform is they’ve spent years hiding their real position_: "The most interesting policy argument... is the debate between conservatives’ real position on health care and their fake position... ---- ---- **Should-Reads:** * **Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan**: _Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes_: "IRS and SSA data reveal diverging patterns in top income shares... * **Chris Hayes**: _On escaping the “doom loop” of Trump's presidency_: "I tend to think of it in terms of my own behavior... * **Hyun Song Shin**: _Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix_: "In emerging market economies especially, a weakening of... Must-Reads: Kevin Drum: We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time: "The most remarkable feature of this chart... http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/04/were-now-second-biggest-housing-boom-all-time Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor: Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?: "How do we know that higher interest rates will bring prices under control?... http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/april/monetary-policy-medicine-using-quasi-random-experiments/ Rick Perlstein: I Thought I Understood the American Right. Trump Proved Me Wrongs: "Direct-mail pioneers like Richard Viguerie created hair-on-fire campaign-fund-raising letters... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/magazine/i-thought-i-understood-the-american-right-trump-proved-me-wrong.html Financial Times: Donald Trump Beats a Retreat: "Another week, another series of flip-flops by America’s president... https://www.ft.com/content/039d80ae-21cb-11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16 Ezra Klein: The GOP’s problem on health reform is they’ve spent years hiding their real position: "The most interesting policy argument... is the debate between conservatives’ real position on health care and their fake position... http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/4/17/15325366/gop-problem-on-health-reform Should-Reads: Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan: Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes: "IRS and SSA data reveal diverging patterns in top income shares... http://papers.nber.org/w23321.pdf Chris Hayes: On escaping the “doom loop” of Trump's presidency: "I tend to think of it in terms of my own behavior... https://www.vox.com/2017/4/19/15356534/chris-hayes-donald-trump-media-elections-2016-criminal-justice Hyun Song Shin: Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix: "In emerging market economies especially, a weakening of the domestic currency against the dollar saps both cross-border bank lending and investment... http://www.bis.org/speeches/sp170419.htm Nick Bunker: What would rules-based monetary policy look like?: "All of this isn’t to say that the reaction functions of central banks or individual central bankers aren’t important..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/04/what-would-rules-based-monetary-policy-look-like-equitable-growth.html Mark Thoma: The Fed’s Inflation Goal: What Does the Public Know?: "'Lately, various Committee members... and Chair Yellen... http://economistsview.typepad.com/econo[...]



For the Weekend...

2017-04-22T07:18:37-07:00

width="600" height="338" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/VHKTbSuuOGM" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen>





2017-04-21T11:46:06-07:00

**Live from the Central Asian-Mediterrean Cultural Interface: Shrimp Saganaki:** * 15 ounce can cannellini beans * 3/4 pound shrimp (add near end) * 1 pint grape or cherry tomatoes, halved * 6 ounces feta cheese, crumbled (add at end) * ½ cup vegetable stock * ½ cup pitted kalamata olives * ½ cup chopped fresh flat-leaf parsley * 1 small onion (add near beginning) * wine * 1/4 cup chopped fresh dill * 2 tablespoons olive oil (add at beginning) * 2 garlic cloves, thinly sliced (add at beginning) * 2 tablespoons chopped fresh oregano * black pepper * ½ teaspoon red pepper flakes * ¼ teaspoon salt Cf.: [Odeum](http://odeumrestaurant.com)




2017-04-21T11:28:57-07:00

**Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Josh Barro**: _Trump makes GOP pretend health reform is on table_: "The Republican healthcare bill is supposedly coming back from the dead... >...pass the House within President Donald Trump's first 100 days in office. And yet, as a senior GOP aide told Business Insider's Bob Bryan: "The question is whether it can get 216 votes in the House and the answer isn't clear at this time. There is no legislative text and therefore no agreement to do a whip count on." >I think it is best to understand the periodic reemergence of the American Health Care Act as similar to the periodic searches for evidence that President Barack Obama really did "tapp" Trump's phones. Trump says he was wiretapped, so he sets off a frenzy as Republicans seek to substantiate that claim, even though they will never be able to. Trump says Republicans are still making great progress on a healthcare deal, so he also sets off frenzies among Republicans to substantiate that claim, even though they'll never be able to. Trump forces his staff and Republicans in Congress to spend energy trying to construct in the real world the alternate reality that exists...




2017-04-21T11:20:50-07:00

**Live from the Orange-Haired Baboon Cage: Josh Barro**: _'Art of the Deal' quote explains Trump's presidency_: "One quote from the book that keeps haunting me during Trump's presidency... >>...What the bulldozers and dump trucks did wasn’t important, I said, so long as they did a lot of it. >Trump was talking about... 1982, when he... wanted Holiday Inn to partner with him.... Trump aims to generate the appearance of activity, to do noisy things that demonstrate that he is a do-something president. Trump believes this strategy served him well in business. Indeed, Holiday Inn agreed to partner with him.... But less than 18 months after the Trump Plaza opened, the partnership with Holiday Inn had deteriorated to the point that Holiday Inn was suing him. In 1992, the Trump Plaza went bankrupt. In the long run, it matters what the bulldozers and the dump trucks do...




2017-04-21T11:07:44-07:00

**Should-Read: Fatih Guvenen and Greg Kaplan**: _Top Income Inequality in the 21st Century: Some Cautionary Notes_: "IRS and SSA data reveal diverging patterns in top income shares... >...due to the increasing importance of income accruing to pass-through entities (partnerships and S-corporations)... included in the IRS measure of total income but not in either the IRS or SSA measure of labor income.... The bulk of this growth... was concentrated at the very top... above the 99.99th percentile, a group that contains only about 12,000 households. The share of incomes above the 99th percentile (around $372,000 in 2012) but below the 99.99th percentile (around $7.2 million in 2012) has barely changed in the last two decades...




2017-04-21T11:01:08-07:00

**Must-Read:** There were three good reasons in the mid-2000s to believe that housing prices should jump substantially. The coming of secular stagnation—then called the "global savings glut"—greatly boosted demand by boosting how much households could afford to pay for America. The filling-up of America restricted supply: first cars and superhighways had meant that for nearly three generations there were greenfield potential housing sites within thirty minutes of everywhere, but that ended with the twentieth century. At some point the anti-global warming carbon tax will come, and when it does auto transportation will become much more expensive and that will tilt the location price gradient. How much were these worth? Not enough to boost housing prices to their 2005 values. But plausibly enough to boost housing prices to their values today. IMHO, the best way to view the graph is as a positive "displacement" boom caused by true fundamentals, a bubble upward overshoot, a crash downward undershoot, and now (we hope) equilibrium: **Kevin Drum**: _We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time_: "The most remarkable feature of this chart... **Must-Read: Kevin Drum**: _We're Now In the Second Biggest Housing Boom of All Time_: "The most remarkable feature of...




2017-04-21T10:53:41-07:00

**Must-Read: Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan M. Taylor**: _Monetary Policy Medicine: Large Effects from Small Doses?_: "How do we know that higher interest rates will bring prices under control?... >...And how do we know how much of the monetary “medicine” to administer?... The long history of international finance turns out to be an excellent laboratory to conduct monetary experiments.... Interest rates have sizable effects.... >Economies that fix their exchange rate but allow capital to move freely across borders effectively relinquish control of domestic monetary policy. In such situations, monetary policy may not respond to domestic conditions and hence may produce quasi-random variation in interest rates that is less sensitive to unobserved factors. We take advantage of this.... Figure 1 shows the response of inflation-adjusted GDP per capita in response to a 1 percentage point increase in short-term interest rates in year 0 calculated two different ways... controlled variation... peg variation.... In the first case, interest rates barely cause a ripple, whereas in the second, real GDP per capita is about 2% lower in year 4 than it was at the start.... The measured response of prices using controlled variation in interest rates is muted—prices are about 0.5% lower by...




2017-04-21T10:45:29-07:00

**Should-Read: Bridget Ansel**: _Weekend reading: “This post is tax-ing” edition_: "The increase in income inequality since 2000 is largely driven by higher capital income among the top .01 percent of earners... >...Kavya Vaghul compiles a roundup of graphics showing interesting trends in U.S. tax policies over the years.... In the past 10 years, student loan debt in the United States has grown by a whopping 170 percent, to $1.4 trillion.... Investments in childcare pay off for mothers and kids alike, especially for boys, and returned $7.30 for every dollar spent.... Vanessa Williamson debunks the myth that Americans hate paying taxes...




2017-04-21T10:40:54-07:00

**Should-Read: Chris Hayes**: _On escaping the “doom loop” of Trump's presidency_: "I tend to think of it in terms of my own behavior... >...Like, what am I going to do? How am I going to avoid the doom loop? My whole approach to the Trump era is to act as if reality matters, facts matter, the basic political gravity of whether you make people's lives better or worse matters, rigorous thinking, nonconspiratorial thinking, logical skepticism — all of these things, these principles I hold as a journalist, as a thinker, as a writer, as a citizen, they all matter. Act as if that's the case, even with the knowledge they may not. >I don't know if in the end they will matter, but I can't figure out how to conduct myself in my life or in my work if they don't...




2017-04-21T09:08:25-07:00

**Should-Read: Hyun Song Shin**: _Accounting for global liquidity: reloading the matrix_: "In emerging market economies especially, a weakening of the domestic currency against the dollar saps both cross-border bank lending and investment... >..Such effects flow through the dense interconnections of dollar lending in the global financial system. In devising policy for financial stability, a tight focus on underlying causes (excess leverage and funding risk) rather than on the symptoms (capital flows) stands a better chance of being more effective in addressing the vulnerabilities as they emerge...



Procrastinating on April 21, 2017

2017-04-21T06:48:50-07:00

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must- and Should-Reads:** * **Against Alasdair Macintyre’s “After Virtue” | Equitable Growth** : "That is a very powerful statement that what is sought after is successful managerialism–a successful managerialism with a preferential option for the poor..." * **Nick Bunker**: _What would rules-based monetary policy look like?_: "All of this isn’t to say that the reaction functions of central banks or individual central bankers aren’t important ..." * **Mark Thoma**: _The Fed’s Inflation Goal: What Does the Public Know?_: "'Lately, various Committee members... and Chair Yellen... * **Jamelle Bouie**: _The Muted Response to the Retail Apocalypse Shows Which Workers Count in Trump’s America_: **Fake Working Class**: "The retail industry’s recent decline... * **Rick Perlstein**: _I Thought I Understood the American Right. Trump Proved Me Wrongs_: "Direct-mail pioneers like Richard Viguerie created hair-on-fire campaign-fund-raising letters... * **Tim Carmody**: _Pour some out for the sites that aren’t here: Google Reader_: "Some of the best things ever seen or used on the web can’t be saved... ---- **Interesting Reads:** * **Tim Carmody**: _Jay Smooth’s Ill Doctrine is still the best_ * **Tim Carmody**: _The web’s most useful tools and sites_ * _FutureMe.org: Write a Letter to the Future_ * **Kevin...