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Updated: 2016-10-02T21:48:47-07:00

 



Current Links

2016-09-27T09:23:56-07:00

**Most-Recent Must-Reads:** * **Scott Sumner:** _[Who Is Peter Navarro?][]_: Tyler Cowen linked to a paper by Peter Navarro.... It's a complete mess... * **Emmanuel Saez and Stefanie Stantcheva**: _[A Simpler Theory of Optimal Capital Taxation][]_: We derive formulas for optimal linear and nonlinear capital income taxation... [A Simpler Theory of...



Procrastinating on September 28, 2016

2016-09-28T11:41:56-07:00

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must-Reads:** * _[Beating America’s Health-Care Monopolists: Fresh at Project Syndicate - Equitable Growth][]_ * _[The Stakes of the Helicopter Money Debate: A Primer - Equitable Growth][]_ * _[Musings on the Science of "Scaling": Blum Center U.C. Berkeley - Equitable Growth][]_ * **Nick Bunker**: _[Underemployment for recent...



Links for the Week of September 25, 2016

2016-09-19T05:03:58-07:00

**Most-Recent Must-Reads:** * **hrtbps**: _[Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!][]_ * **Nick Rowe**: _[Cheshire Cats and New Keynesian Central Banks][]_: How can money disappear from a New Keynesian model, but the Central Bank still set a nominal rate of interest and create a recession by...



Weekend Reading: Barry Eichengreen: Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy

2016-09-25T09:42:42-07:00

**Barry Eichengreen**: _[Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy][]_: >It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks. Having done this twice before, in 2011 and 2013, this affords me the opportunity not... Barry Eichengreen: Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy: It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks. Having done this twice before, in 2011 and 2013, this affords me the opportunity not just to highlight some insights from this year’s papers but also to look back at the conclusions of those earlier conferences and see how they stack up in light of recent events. In 2011 the focus was on Asia’s role in what the organizers optimistically referred to as the “post-crisis global economy.” The main conclusions—that Asian countries would remain deeply integrated into the international economy and that their influence over global economic prospects would, if anything, increase over time—have clearly been borne out by events. Integration has deepened further as countries like China have taken additional steps to relax regulations limiting the integration of their financial markets with those of the rest of the world. Further evidence of financial integration lies in growing off-shore borrowing, mainly in Europe and the United States, of corporations in a variety of Asian countries, a phenomenon that is now widely seen as something of a mixed blessing. Earlier this year, starting on August 11, we saw how even a minor change in Chinese exchange rate policy could have major repercussions for global financial markets. Changing views of the prospects for Chinese economic growth now affect assessments of the economic outlook for countries in every part of the world. Global commodity prices have been shaped by events in Asia. Expectations about interest rate normalization by the Federal Reserve have been shaped by events in Asia. The tendency until recently for the growth of global trade to outstrip the growth of global gross domestic product (GDP) and now for the growth of trade to lag has been heavily shaped by events in Asia, first as regional supply chains developed and then as they approached their limits. Contributors to the 2011 Asia Economic Policy Conference (AEPC) were right to highlight these implications. The other emphasis in 2011 was the linkage between monetary and financial policies. Strikingly, there was extensive discussion of what we would now call macroprudential policy, not least because the macroprudential policy toolkit was being pioneered by Asian countries like South Korea. There was extensive debate about whether it would be possible to develop a macroprudential tool-kit sufficiently powerful to allow interest rate policy to be assigned exclusively to the central bank’s inflation target, or whether it might be necessary to use interest rates to “get into all the cracks” of supervision and regulation, as Jeremy Stein subsequently put it. The debate then was inconclusive. It is fair to say that this remains the case today. In 2013 the topic of the AEPC was Asia’s growth prospects. The focus, not surprisingly, was on China and Japan, given the challenges of Chinese rebalancing and the advent of Abenomics. For China, the questions were whether the rate of economic growth was poised to slow and whether leaders were serious about rebalancing the economy from investment to consumption and from manufacturing to services. On the first question, the nearly unanimous answer was yes, on the grounds that no economy can grow by 10 percent per annum indefinitely (a point also emphasized by Stanley Fischer in his remarks at this year’s conference), that the pool of underemployed labor had essentially been drained, and that raising service-sector productivity—C[...]




2016-09-25T09:30:09-07:00

**Must-Read: Barry Eichengreen**: _[Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy][]_: >It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks... [Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy]: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/files/full-conference-volume-AEPC-2015.pdf >Having done this...




2016-09-25T09:18:14-07:00

**Must-Read:** Nick Rowe continues his long twilight struggle to try to explain what is really going on in the New Keynesian DSGE model to the world. I think this is a Sisyphean task: **Nick Rowe**: _[Cheshire Cats and New Keynesian Central Banks][]_: >How can money disappear from a New Keynesian...




2016-09-25T08:44:49-07:00

**Must-Read: hrtbps**: _[Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!][]_: If your workplace requires people to call you “my right honourable friend”, don’t talk to me about safe spaces https://t.co/mS0M3EmuuG— hrtbps (@hrtbps) September 14, 2016 [Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!]: https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/776025681016786945

Must-Read: hrtbps: Your Workplace Requires People to Call You: “My Right Honourable Friend”!:





2016-09-25T05:13:00-07:00

**Must-Read:** Since Dick Schmalensee left the GHWB Council of Economic Advisers, it has been nearly impossible to get any Republicans on board for a serious push to do smart pro-growth regulatory reform--patents, copyrights, occupational licensing, land-use NIMBYism. Instead, Republicans' ideas of regulatory "reform" have been either a broad-brush approach that...




2016-09-25T04:18:38-07:00

**Taped from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna:** One reason we are in so much trouble now is that our TV and newspaper "journalists" have spent and continue to spend so much of their time and energy grasping at straws and finding excuses to normalize that which not should be normalized. Sarah...




2016-09-24T15:52:05-07:00

**Must-Read: Mark Pesce**: _[Zombie Moore's Law: Hardware Eats Software][]_: >Intel announce some next-generation CPUs that aren’t very much faster... delays... some of its 10nm process CPUs; and Apple’s new A10 chip, powering iPhone 7, is as one of the fastest CPUs ever... [Zombie Moore's Law: Hardware Eats Software]: http://www.theregister.co.uk/2016/09/22/the_evolution_of_moores_law_suggests_hardware_is_eating_software/ >Intel’s...



Brookings Productivity Puzzle Panel: VIdeo

2016-09-24T12:40:47-07:00

_[The Productivity Puzzle][]_: >On September 9, 2016 the Initiative on Business and Public Policy and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings hosted a forum on the policy implications of the growth slowdown. [The Productivity Puzzle]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dojtWYrjnbc&feature=youtu.be&ab_channel=BrookingsInstitution

The Productivity Puzzle:

On September 9, 2016 the Initiative on Business and Public Policy and the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at Brookings hosted a forum on the policy implications of the growth slowdown.

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2016-09-24T06:12:55-07:00

**Live from Trumpland: David Frum**: _[Donald Trump and the Seven Broken Guardrails of Democracy][]_: >Many conservatives and Republicans recognize Trump as a disaster for their institutions and their ideals. Yet they have found it impossible to protect things they hold dear... [Donald Trump and the Seven Broken Guardrails of Democracy]:...




2016-09-24T05:55:32-07:00

**Must-Read:** The conventional wisdom in the communities in which I sit is that commercial bankers are being extremely stressed by the fact that interest rates are so low and they cannot charge for deposits. The longer-run point that raising interest rates may well crash the economy and crash the value...



Monday Smackdown: Economists for Trump Not Even Phoning It in Department...

2016-09-24T05:41:54-07:00

**Live from Trumpland**: Various twits are telling me that the [Economists for Trump][]--Eugene Fama in the lead, with June O'Neill, Richard Vedder, Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Larry Kudlow, Arthur Laffer, David Malpass, James Miller III, Steve Moore, and a half-dozen or so others--are not for Trump, but rather "Concerned by Hillary Clinton's...



(Early) Monday Smackdown: David Glasner on the Ignorance of Macroeconomists Who Say "All Models Are False" in Self-Justification

2016-09-24T05:34:26-07:00

**David Glasner**: _[Paul Romer on Modern Macroeconomics, Or, the “All Models Are False” Dodge][]_: >I was just curious about where the little phrase “all models are false” came from.... I found... the British statistician, G. E. P. Box who wrote in his paper “Science and Statistics” based on his R....




2016-09-25T15:50:07-07:00

**Comment of the Day: Phil Koop**: _[Weekend Reading: Richard Feynman: Cargo Cult Science][]_: >I also thought of this [Feynmann speech] when I read Gellman's rant. There is nothing wrong with [Gellman's] timeline per se, and he even correctly diagnoses the underlying problem, which is experimental design, not the technicalities of...



Liveblogging the American Revolution: September 24, 1778: Siege of Boonesborough

2016-09-24T05:14:47-07:00

**KyForward.com**: _[Annual re-enactment of 1778 Siege of Boonesborough scheduled for Sept. 24-25][]_: >Fort Boonesborough State Park will host its annual “1778 Siege of Boonesborough” weekend, Sept. 24-25.... The event commemorates the September 1778 attack on the fort by Native Americans and French Canadians during the Revolutionary War. The settlers in...



For the Weekend...

2016-09-23T18:06:42-07:00

---- >This you knows. The years travel fast. And time after time I've done the Tell. But this ain 't one body's Tell. It's the Tell of us all. And you got to listen it and 'member. 'Cause what you hears today, you got to tell the newborn tomorrow. I's...

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This you knows. The years travel fast.
And time after time I've done the Tell.
But this ain 't one body's Tell. It's the Tell of us all.
And you got to listen it and 'member.
'Cause what you hears today, you got to tell the newborn tomorrow.
I's looking behind us now, into history back.
I sees those of us that got the luck and started the haul for home.
It lead us here and we was heartful 'cause we seen what there once was.
One look, and we knewed we'd got it straight.
Those what had gone before had knowing
of things beyond our reckoning...
even beyond our dreaming...
Time counts and keeps counting. And we knows now
finding the trick of what's been and lost ain't no easy ride.
But that's our track. We got to travel it.
And there ain't nobody knows where it's gonna lead.
Still and all, every night we does the Tell
so that we 'member who we was and where we came from.
But most of all we 'members the man
who finded us: him that came the salvage.
And we lights the city. Not just for him
but for all of them that are still out there.
'Cause we knows there'll come a night
when they sees the distant light,
and they'll be coming home.


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2016-09-23T18:05:17-07:00

**Live from Trumpland:** Blind Squirrel: **(1) Erica Grieder** (2011): _[The Trash Talker: Why Rick Perry Will Thrive][]_: >On the issues where he has been motivated to mastery... [Perry] typically has a commanding grasp of the facts. When I’ve interviewed him, I’ve been most concerned about economic issues, and have found...



Weekend Reading: Richard Feynman: Cargo Cult Science

2016-09-24T05:21:08-07:00

**Richard Feynman** (1974): _[Cargo Cult Science][]_: >During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. (Another crazy idea of the Middle Ages is these hats we have on today—which is too loose in my case.) Then a...



Procrastinating on September 23, 2016

2016-09-23T15:05:22-07:00

**Over at [Equitable Growth](http://EquitableGrowth.org): Must-Reads:** * **Marc Dordal i Carreras, Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, and Johannes Wieland**: _[Rethinking Inflation Targets for Long ZLB Episodes][]_: The estimated frequencies and durations are quite sensitive to individual country experiences... * **Robert Novy-Marx**: _[Is Momentum Really Momentum?][]_: Momentum is primarily driven by firms’ performance...




2016-09-22T17:35:41-07:00

**Comment of the Day: Kaleberg**: _[AI][]_: >One of the problems is that we don't always call them robots... [AI]: http://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/09/must-read-kaila-colbin-_the-real-reason-this-elephant-chart-is-terrifying_-a-shock-and-awe-wake-up-call-about.html?cid=6a00e551f08003883401b7c89215da970b#comment-6a00e551f08003883401b7c89215da970b >For example: We don't have robot lawyers, but we have eliminated thousands of lawyers and paralegals using advanced search algorithms, information retrieval and text processing. We don't have robot receptionists,...