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Last Build Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2015 11:00:52 +0000


Comment on Reply to Aretae on Immigration by Frito Bandito

Fri, 14 Aug 2015 11:00:52 +0000

Are you Indian?

Comment on About by contemplationist

Sat, 08 Jun 2013 19:39:12 +0000

my username@ google's mail system [dawt]kom

Comment on About by aretae

Thu, 30 May 2013 05:35:17 +0000

Trying to find an email for you to add you to my blog readership

Comment on Reply to Aretae on Immigration by immigration lawyer in chicago

Thu, 22 Dec 2011 06:42:53 +0000

Immense post. What government want from all these things we don't understand. We cant decide whether these steps taken by government are positive or negative.

Comment on Stupidity v Malice by tenkev

Fri, 16 Dec 2011 18:00:40 +0000

Just because one is intelligent does not mean that their mind cannot be infected by incorrect ideology. In fact it may increase the chance.

Comment on Reverend Bayes Eschews Politics by contemplationist

Sat, 03 Dec 2011 01:38:30 +0000

Yes I was also confused by the standard explanation for Monty Hall. Bayesian reasoning on complex topics requires even more care, which is my point - it is notoriously easy to misuse. $X million dollars donated by oil industry to climate change skeptics => AHA! Discount to 0! Oh but I didn't realize that BILLIONS of dollars go to climate scientists to support AGW. An easy example.

Comment on Reverend Bayes Eschews Politics by The Other Eugenicist

Sat, 26 Nov 2011 01:27:15 +0000

I find the standard way that the Monty Hall problem is explained is harder to understand than the following: 1. What ever you choose, you have a two thirds probability of being wrong. That is, the car is more likely behind one of the other two doors. 2. When the host reveals that it is not behind one of those doors, you have a two thirds probability that it is behind the remaining door (the one you did not choose), so you should switch. The likelihood that you are wrong is only 33% (the original probability that you had chosen the correct door). However, I still Bayesian stuff hard.

Comment on Reply to Aretae on Immigration by rightsaidfred

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 07:13:45 +0000

Just looking a bit at the big picture, we have Germany and China, relatively immigrant free, showing good economic growth, while America the Inviter less so. I'd say in general that recessions and immigration are not a linked issue. In the current instance, however, we had the dynamic of the housing boom inviting immigrants to build and buy houses, and all that flowing through the system, and then the downturn putting pressure on unskilled labor, so I would say that there is some linkage. Economics may have started as the study of political economy, but now many seem to just worship at the altar of GDP growth.

Comment on Reply to Aretae on Immigration by contemplationist

Tue, 27 Sep 2011 00:55:01 +0000

rsf Thanks for dropping by. From all I've read, its really hard to prove immigrants' positive (or negative) contribution to the economy. So I rely on comparative advantage. This sets me apart from most immigration skeptics who usually tend to be anti-free-trade as well. I accept Aretae's purely economic position on immigration. But the politics overwhelms the economics in the long run. Also, I'm not sure what "purely economic" means, economics started as the study of Political Economy - this analysis would be right up in there. Also, personally I don't believe immigration has anything to do with recessions, or if they do, at least not this one.

Comment on Reply to Aretae on Immigration by rightsaidfred

Sun, 25 Sep 2011 16:41:54 +0000

Excellent points about the long term political consequences of immigration affecting economics. Aretae wants to focus on purely the economic aspects, but I don't think he carries the day on that matter. The US has recently taken in more immigrants than the rest of the world combined, and yet with all these immigrants running around supposedly creating value, our economy still tanked as bad or worse than others.