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Talking about horse racing, betting, handicapping and free picks.



Last Build Date: Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:24:15 -0000

 



Re: Horse of the Year: Zenyatta, Blame or Goldikova?

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 14:24:15 -0000

Jane, Panda you're both right about the voting standards. It is very inconsistent, bordering on ridiculous.




Re: Horse of the Year: Zenyatta, Blame or Goldikova?

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 13:12:02 -0000

I think Zenyatta should get horse of the year; missed the BC win by inches and actually earned the same Beyer as Blame. And that because she didn't start her run soon enough.




Re: Horse of the Year: Zenyatta, Blame or Goldikova?

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 08:47:55 -0000

even a kidney wouldnt do it!!!!!




Re: Horse of the Year: Zenyatta, Blame or Goldikova?

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 08:45:43 -0000

Well if the horse of the year is the one that wins the breeders cup classic, then way in the hell didnt she get horse of the year last year? This is what has been going through my mind since last year. I think there is someone trying to make sure she doesnt get anything. I truly think even if she had won the classic this year too, she still wouldnt have got horse of the year. It all about who they like the best. or maybe there are some payoffs going on, its not like it hasnt happend before in the past.




Re: Horse of the Year: Zenyatta, Blame or Goldikova?

Fri, 12 Nov 2010 07:59:44 -0000

Great write, Derek, TY!
"In 2009, Grade I victories were held in high esteem; in 2010, they mean about as much as an "I Do" from Charlie Sheen."
Line of the year! Love it!
Also, looking at the basis of the awards for the last two yrs, it's bordering on "Well, we'll see what mood we're in when we wake up in the morning." If this panal is not careful, their ambivolence (or hypocrisy, if I dare) will drive away many of the new fans Zenny has worked to bring into the sport.
But taking into consideration all Zen had to make up in this yr's race, I say she should have HOTY, AND the apology from race writers!
I mean, for crying out loud, what else does she have to do to prove herself - donate a kidney???




Re: The Queen Still Reigns

Tue, 09 Nov 2010 23:51:49 -0000

Zenyatta lost by a mere 3 inches...it was a photo finish. It was Mike Smith's fault as he stated; but I don't think it was because of a bad beginning. I think Mike Smith should have started her run a little earlier. Horses race slower on the dirt than on synthetic tracks and a gaining horses's speed rate of change is also slower ie. smaller. It's calculus, which I'm sure jockeys don't study that much:) Say in this race, on the dirt; Blame ran 40 mph in the stretch and Zenyatta ran 41 mph in the stretch. 41/40 is .975 - Zenyatta's speed rate of change. Say that this race was run on a synthetic track and Blame was running 41 mph in the stretch and Zenyatta was running 42 mph in the stretch. 41/42 is .976 - a slightly larger speed rate of change for Zenyatta were the race run on a synthetic track.

I think the criticism that Zenyatta only runs on synthetic tracks is valid, not because she can't run on the dirt; but that her jockey has become accustomed to starting Zenyatta's run at a certain distance from the leader; knowing she can get ahead of the leader at the wire. Just because a horse is running 1 mph faster than another horse either on the dirt or synthetic in my hypothetical situation, doesn't mean the horse can finish ahead at the same distance as on a synthetic track. That .001 rate of change difference for the dirt track demands more distance to win.




Re: The Queen Still Reigns

Tue, 09 Nov 2010 15:47:08 -0000

Without a doubt I believe Zenyatta would have won,I felt as if Mike Smith, held her back too long, perhaps wanting that big dramatic close for her finial race.She still is "The Queen" and 19 is a remarkable amount of wins to secure her prominence in Thoroughbred Racing History...what a magnificent Horse, with not only her racing record but also for bringing so many people together into the sport,and raising the level of interest in racing. You don't see too many Zenyatta's in one's lifetime so, lets enjoy all she's given us, here's to you Queen Zenyatta!

Suzanne M.




Re: Breeders’ Cup 2010

Sun, 07 Nov 2010 10:58:11 -0000

Even though Zenyatta lost by inches, I still say she proved she is a great racehorse; she did beat (most) of the boys on the dirt and earned the same Beyer as Blame. Mike Smith stated that it was his fault and that makes sense because if horses run slower on the dirt, the rate of speed change (Zenyatta coming from behind in the stretch) to the leader (Blame) is slower. Smith should have started Zenyatta's run a little earlier; as it was; had Zenyatta had one or two lengths more; she would have won.

I couldn't help noticing the huge $5,240,640 P6 pool! You can be sure the 6 winners were betting pools of up to $50,000-$100,000 on almost every horse paying out $800,160.40 for each betting pool. Something like this is a real investment and validates P6 betting pools.




Re: Breeders’ Cup Singles

Thu, 04 Nov 2010 03:22:11 -0000

agree on you with that, any horse could be beaten anytime, and winning is just pure luck




Re: Destination Twin Spires

Wed, 03 Nov 2010 11:23:59 -0000

Thanks Viv, I like it so much, I just might need to move down here! ;-)




Re: Destination Twin Spires

Wed, 03 Nov 2010 11:23:03 -0000

If Sydney's Candy wins I will give you credit, but I am not expecting that outcome.




Re: Destination Twin Spires

Wed, 03 Nov 2010 11:16:26 -0000

Welcome back to Louisville Brian! Sure wish you could stay longer.
Right-on argument on the 2 top horses for the Mile......it's going to be a fun one to watch.




Re: Destination Twin Spires

Wed, 03 Nov 2010 10:54:31 -0000

this is definitely not a 2horse race....i guarantee you and da apology will come in handy afyer da race.....see churchill's turf has this thing against favourites and plays favourable to california speed of which the outcome will attest to...lol.....show some genuine respect and awe for"LITTLE RED"my friend or you are awaiting for scintillating confirmation via results.......as is my forte,i see it before it happens......da art of handicapping......nice race ....second tier.........now the race of da ages pit da queen against very formidable competition(boys).....da outcome is huge.....zen wins,she is da greatest racehorse in history,,,,,bar none.......blame has sweet shot of overturning da apple cart............da kamikaze(espoir city)will definitely get some play from moi as imminent as da sun rises in da east and da mystique of da TWIN SPIRES looms large.




Re: Breeders’ Cup Singles

Sat, 30 Oct 2010 13:40:27 -0000

I appreciate the comments guys, but I honestly think that no horse is unbeatable. Singles are needed in some of the bets I mentioned, unless you have an unlimited bankroll, and these four are my opinions of the four most likely to win. They are not locks ... they are simply my closest chances to locks at the Breeders' Cup. Leave them off your tickets at your own risk.




Re: It’s Ba-ack…

Sat, 30 Oct 2010 12:51:08 -0000

** 4th lunation (not 2nd lunation); 2nd fav wins slightly more than 1st fav.




Re: It’s Ba-ack…

Sat, 30 Oct 2010 12:49:45 -0000

OMG! I really read my lunar charts wrong yesterday for some reason! You are right, Derek; the BC races are on the cusp of the 2nd & 3rd lunation. So I'm changing my betting pattern; the 2nd fav to win in the 1st day of BC racing; the 1st fav in the 2nd day of BC racing. That is the most basic way to connect the lunations with horseracing favorites; 1st lunation, 1st favs win slightly more than 2nd favs; 2nd lunation - about equal; 3rd lunation - 1st favs more; 2nd lunation; 2nd favs slightly more. Avgs out to 1st favs in the morning line win 33% of the time; 2nd favs in the morning line win 29% of the time ie. 1st & 2nd favs win 62% of races.




Re: Breeders’ Cup Singles

Sat, 30 Oct 2010 11:34:24 -0000

I'm not convinced at Midday's superiority. Love the animal and have backed her many times successfully and of course a Cecil/Midday win like Z and Goldi no one will give a damn what they backed.

However before the race....

Midday beat fast ground horse Plumania 3/4L on yielding ground last time. Plumania has won against colts - an unknown Debussy bt Midday easily before last year's oaks. Those getting excited because of Sarafina's next run should consider the 4th and 5th before getting too carried away. 1.5L 4th btn in a listed race after and won a listed dropped to 9F. 1.5L 3rd beaten in a G2 next time 1.25L. Arguably like the previous year's Opera Sarafina was prepping and the others after a G1.

If they go no pace (looks like a scenario in F&M Turf and Turf) she sits 2nd she wins but that might be true of Plumania or any of them.

Harmonious was very impressive last time. Eclaire de Lune is a legitimate G1 winner.

Red Desire if I had not seen her in the flesh at Belmont I could like. Clearly she has physical problems hence heading for Lasix. Nonetheless if the juice works and off her decent prep on the wrong ground (arguably) having beaten colts and Buena Vista she arguably has as good a form as any of these.

Worthy favourite yes. Mortal Lock nowhere near. Most likely to adjust and run her race yes. Definitely the best of these at peak form arguable.




Re: Breeders’ Cup Singles

Sat, 30 Oct 2010 10:56:37 -0000

Winter Memories caught my eye winning her first Graded race but when Aidan O'Brien announced the shipping of Together I think her first serious challenger was announced. Winter Memories should win....but she'll find it hard.

As for Midday? Lock, lock and, once more, lock. She surely can't be beaten in the form she's in can she? Red Desire is extremely over rated for this race. Blind Luck is one my favourites and Goldikova will do all she can to hold off Paco Boy - for two years I've wanted Hannon to ship Paco to this and I just sense this may be Paco's finest hour




Re: It’s Ba-ack…

Fri, 29 Oct 2010 13:10:21 -0000

2nd favs in the morning line on the 2nd day, except for Zenyatta:)




Re: It’s Ba-ack…

Fri, 29 Oct 2010 12:51:45 -0000

Thanks Derek for the picks. You were wrong when you stated that the BC races are on the cusp of 2nd & 3rd lunation; they're on the cusp of 1st & 2nd lunation!:-(
That means the 1st day you can count on a number of 1st favs in the morning line to win; on the 2nd day; you can count on a number of 2nd favs in the morning line to win. I'll get your picks and then select the 1st fav on the 1st day, 2nd fav on the 2nd day and compare to see how I did against your picks. Your pace formulas will really work on the 2nd day; as in the dreaded 2nd lunation - if a horse can get to the middle of the pack halfway thru the race - stands a chance of winning; from then on it's pure random - but responsive to pace handicapping. A lot of 1st & 2nd favs in the morning line place and show during lunation; bettors might want to concentrate on place and show bets.




Re: The Truth About Beyer Figures & Zenyatta

Fri, 29 Oct 2010 01:02:43 -0000

Mike Smith says that once Zenyatta hits the front she thinks the race is over. Hence Smith waits as long as possible to make his final move. That's why you don't see Zenyatta drawing off and winning by "Secretariat Belmont" lengths. Zenyatta will post high speed figures only if her competitors are posting high speed figures - in other words, she runs only fast enough to win.

In any case, regarding Beyer figures anyone who seriously compiles their own speed ratings will realize how bad they are particularly for route races and any surface that favors closers regardless of whether the track surface is synthetic. People like Beyer will never have a horse like Kelso in their lists of great horses despite the fact that Kelso is the only 5 time Horse of the Year winner and a winner over all surfaces (dirt, turf, off track, etc.) from 6 furlongs to 2 miles.




Re: The Truth About Beyer Figures & Zenyatta

Thu, 28 Oct 2010 00:21:14 -0000

I know you are not knocking the Big Z. I enjoyed your article quite a bit for its fair mindedness and for the depth of info on speed figures, a topic that I've always found rather obscure. Thanks for that, and your reply. Your points on my "false construct" are well taken.




Re: Zenyatta’s Revenge, or …Ten Reasons Why I Should Never Doubt the Queen

Tue, 26 Oct 2010 08:45:31 -0000

Brian, Methinks you better, you better, you bet!




Re: Zenyatta’s Revenge, or …Ten Reasons Why I Should Never Doubt the Queen

Tue, 26 Oct 2010 08:44:32 -0000

thanKKK----YOU!!!




Re: Zenyatta’s Revenge, or …Ten Reasons Why I Should Never Doubt the Queen

Tue, 26 Oct 2010 02:38:43 -0000

Brilliant! This was so funny and clever, I laughed out loud, you almost made me want to root for Zenyatta