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Comments on: Obama in the lead

DPF's Kiwiblog - Fomenting Happy Mischief since 2003

Last Build Date: Wed, 21 Mar 2018 08:08:38 +0000


By: philu

Mon, 10 Mar 2008 05:25:43 +0000

and i withdraw my withdrawal of the accusation that mccain would torture.. he would torture.. phil(

By: philu

Fri, 07 Mar 2008 20:30:17 +0000

then there is this (scary) aspect of mccain.. ..and does everyone feel aok about an 80 year old having their finger on the nuclear-trigger..? phil(

By: philu

Fri, 07 Mar 2008 09:47:59 +0000

mccain looks like one of those old guys in the supermarket..whose 'job' is to push the trolley.. ..while his wife pours over the cans of 'whatever'.. mccain looks like an old guy flogging haemmorroid cream on the telly.. mccain could play the role of 'coach' the remake of 'cheers'.. mccain is so..last millenium.. phil(


Fri, 07 Mar 2008 00:00:05 +0000

McCain looks old enough to have owned Obama's grandfather? How about, no black actually descended from slaves would go to Pyonyang or Havana because they love their freedom too much ... but maybe one whose relatives live in a one party state without free and fair elections might.

By: philu

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 22:17:03 +0000

didyaknow that kennedy money came from bootlegging..? that 'pappy' kennedy 'ran' the canadian border..? so what..?.. unless there is clear evidence of institutional/endemic corruption on obamas' part.. rezko will not hurt obama.. obama is not only fighting clinton/the entrenched 'interests' in the democratic party.. he is also fighting the republican party.. the last thing they want is young/vibrant obama.. ..up against 'old man' mccain.. and if you think of a president serving two terms.. (pappy bush..bush-the-failure-the-first..was unusual in getting tossed out after only one term..) mccain..(aged 80)..! (mccain looks like the kind of old guy you can tell is wearing adult-diapers..) (apologies for stealing lettermans' 'riff'..) mccain looks like the kind of old guy..who..if he was wearing a hat..and driving a would 'swerve' to avoid.. mccain looks like the old guy who comes out on the verandah..and shakes his fist at the neighborhood children..while mumbling incomprehensibly.. mccain looks old enough to have 'owned' obamas' grandfather.. phil(

By: kiwi in america

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 21:52:49 +0000

you're on phil - except I aint going into Cosmic Corner or Nandor's old shop to get one - come to think of it neither will you because I will win this bet in a canter! Everyone knows Obama came out of TX with more delegates than Clinton because he won the caucus and was only 3% behind her in the primary. But guess what - even the MSM media are focussing on her comeback and the faction fight emerging in the Democratic party. Truth is even if Obama sweeps her 80 - 20 in every primary/caucus from now until the Convention (unlikely), he's still going to need the supers to get over the line. If his campaign has been weakened by normal press scrutiny that up until now he has not had, if his national poll numbers vs Clinton continue to head south, if his head to heads with McCain worsen and Clinton's improve, if she wins big in PA and gets closer than expected in other contests he should've easily won, guess what the supers are going to be thinking about who'se best to go against McCain in Nov. I know you think he's a secular messiah but the press haven't even begun to probe him hard on Rezko's cosy little house sale arrangement on Obama's South Side mansion. The ONLY answers he has given the press were a series of vague and weak written answers he gave to the Chicago Sun last year. The Chicago political press corps have been chomping at the bit to interview Obama but he won't agree to one. When it came up at his San Antonio presser after Super Tuesday II, he showed his glass jaw, stumbled and mumbled and then ran before he could answer any more probing questions about Rezko. That's not change but Chicago politics as usual.

By: philu

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 19:01:25 +0000

this is also relevant.. and..can i have a 'brand new shiny' vaporiser..?..instead of a bong..? phil(

By: kiwi in america

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 15:26:06 +0000

Actually philu the exit polls in TX showed Obama won the 7% of GOP voters who crossed over 54 to 46. That is a smaller margin than prior exit polls looking at who GOP primary voters went for in previous open primaries. Don't misunderstand me phil - I hate Clinton and will vote for McCain in the general. On the starboard side of the isle, we just want to prolong the agony of the port side for as long as possible and Hillary's performance on Tuesday ensures this will be so for at least another 2 months. I'll bet you a brand new shiny bong we have already seen the best of the Obama wave.

By: philu

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 06:26:00 +0000

and ..y' does staying over the other side of the white house while bill got blow jobs from interns..? ..especially qualify her for the role of president..? phil(

By: philu

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 06:23:39 +0000

this is a temporary hiccup.. the obama-wave will now get even stronger.. you have totally ignored the fact that republicans tactically voted in the texas primary.. against obama.. phil(

By: kiwi in america

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 06:18:41 +0000

Craig Your assumption re Hillary v McCain is correct however her fight right now is with Obama. Clinton's whole strategy vis a vis foreign policy was to run to the left but not too far so that she could tack back to the centre for the General in November hence her refusal to reupdiate her 2002 vote for the Iraq war. Trouble was that Obama and Edwards were so far to her left particularly on the war that for some time she played 'me too' with them. There is very little that she can differentiate herself from Obama - unlike McCain who has a smorgasbord of lefty issues to hit Obama hard on and she she is trying to play up one of the few perceived differences - that of experience. We all know her resume is only a few mm thicker than his - her life experience being mostly as a de facto presidential advisor to Bill which is not the same as the real world experience of a property elected official. Her team will reason: if it worked in TX and OH it should work in PA and that is now her main target plus the intense lobbying of the super delegates to hold the line

By: Craig Ranapia

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:36:21 +0000

4. The Red Phone ad worked in TX - look for it again and again and for her to beat the drum of his skinny resume and wishy washy ‘lets talk’ approach to dealing with dictators such as Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Ill and terrorists such as Hamas.
I don't think so -- because one rather important factor has changed: McCain has the republican nomination locked, and he's going to be free to start reminding people that when Hillary was handing the red phone to Bill, he was in the Senate and formidably well-informed on military and foreign policy. Nor do I think Senator Clinton's diaries and Senate attendance records are going to stand up to much scrutiny, that's assuming the media are going to keep letting her play the passive-agressive victim.


Thu, 06 Mar 2008 05:06:09 +0000

To divert and then come back to this thread issue. Hamas was elected to the governance of the Palestinian Authority, yet this PA was formed as part of the peace process which Hamas opposes. This made their tenure untenable. Particularly while their military wing was engaged in war with Israel. Obama would be elected to the office of Presidency - head of state of the USA. A former President led his country to the occupation of Iraq. It is said that the occupying power is required in international law to be responsible for the well being of the citizens of the occupied country. This responsibility is now owned by the United States of America, and is one inherited by those in the POTUSA office. To now simply withdraw, as Obama suggests, may be as "illegal" as the occupation itself. That said McCain's position is in support of the temporary surge (one of the few things that has had a modicum of success), yet once the surge is over there is some doubt whether the gains would be sustained. If the surge was sustained, by becoming a policy of having a higher permanent troop level (as long as it takes), it would undermine global security/deterrent capability. The Democrats can beat the Republicans on domestic policy issues and wider foreign policy issues if Iraq is neutralised (which Clinton does best). In many ways the super delegates vote Obama, if they want to leave Iraq (and believe that is his policy) and they think they can win with this policy, or despite this policy. The Republicans will say withdrawal from Iraq would be the action of a shallow callow, immature and irresponsible President, unless of course he can show how he would better defend freedom around the world by not having the US military capability tied up in Iraq. Yet this is inconsistent with visiting Pyonyang and Havana and Nairobi to visit undemocratic one party state regime leaders. In the end, unless Obama can get the majority of the US people behind his foreign policy/defence/free world leadership vision, the Democrat super delegates will probably choose Clinton.

By: kiwi in america

Thu, 06 Mar 2008 01:09:26 +0000

philu Your blind faith in Obama is touching but I'm afraid you're reading stuff that's over a week old. There will be no seceding apace of super delegates to Obama - Clinton's victories in the large (TX, CA, NY etc) and battleground (OH, NH etc) states have caused them to pause - so says Susan Estridge one of the leading Dems who helped create the supers in the first place. HRC led by 10 in Pennsylvania before last night's comeback results and with demographics very close to OH, she will win big there again. Gov Crist of FL is now saying a fresh primary in his state is fine by him so I'm picking the issue of the unseated delegates from FL and MI will be sorted by fresh elections. Assuming both states break even only slightly for Hillary and she wins PA (and the cluster of neighbouring states with demographics like WV and KY) she would overtake Obama in the popular vote due to her winning all the big population states and she would come very close to his pledged delegate total. Obama won only 3 counties in OH and the heavily black county around Cleveland by a slender margin - it was a very poor showing in a swing state that no winning President has ever failed to win his own party's primary in. So in the 7 weeks until PA, watch for the following trends that will even further take the messianic gloss off Obama and bring him down to earth: 1. Rezko Rezko Rezko - this trial will be intensely watched and reported on and Obama will face increasing press scrutiny on his ties. On Monday he fumbled through a Chicago press conference accepting only 8 questions before running away due to the grilling he got from the hardened Chicago press corp who are less blinded by Obamania. This will INCREASE over the coming weeks if the wider MSM sense he is running away or not ready to face a proper press grilling which we all know he has not really been receiving. Contrast McCain who answered 36 qs at the presser over the NYT hit piece on lobbyists and he stayed to the end until all qs were answered. 2. NAFTA - his campaign was caught in a lie and Obama was part of it - look for Clinton's people to make hay over the deception more than the issue of NAFTA now that Ohio is out of the way. 3. Obama's failure to hold a single meeting of the Afganistan Senate oversight committee he chairs due to his "campaign commitments" - he admitted as much in the TX debate - watch for Clinton to play that clip over and over. 4. The Red Phone ad worked in TX - look for it again and again and for her to beat the drum of his skinny resume and wishy washy 'lets talk' approach to dealing with dictators such as Chavez, Ahmadinejad, Kim Jong Ill and terrorists such as Hamas. 5. The Clintonistas ramping up the pressure to re-hold the MI and FL primaries 6. The head to head polls all have reversed showing McCain more likely to beat Obama now with Clinton making it a closer race. This will cause Obama leaning supers to think again as winnability in November is their key objective. 7. Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking have Clinton ahead now and slowly increasing the gap. 8. Obama will be more gaffe prone - he will try to attack Clinton back but she and her team are used to being attacked - he will try to be more aggressive in the debates as he slips behind in the national polls which will do nothing but to bring him down from his lofty holier than thou perch into the more normal mire of mere mortal politicians (which he always was). 9. Whilst Clinton attacks Obama from the few areas she can attack him on, the GOP consider Obama to be the most target rich Dem nominee since peacenik George McGovern in 1968. Count on McCain and other GOPers to fir[...]

By: philu

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:26:08 +0000

"..helped to dim the messianic brightness of Obama and reveal him for what he really is - a dirty fighting old fashioned Chicago pol who used his legal training to destroy his IL State Senate opponents so he ran unopposed. His undeniable connections with Rezko further drags Obama back to the mud of Chicago Democrat politics - a term synonymous with underhand tactics and smoke filled rooms.." 'smoke-filled rooms'.. you do write absolute drivel..don't you..?..expatriate new zealander..? obama organised low-paid workers into a union... he was a star at harvard.. and is the person for the times.. (and..a gangster in chicago..? say..?..who'd have thought..? phil(

By: philu

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:18:28 +0000

mccain will/could beat hillary.. but not obama... clinton is nearly 'as old' as mccain..and signifies 'no change at all'.. whereas obama has 'change'..and more importantly..youth..all over him.. whereas 'old man mccain' is just the opposite.. republicans know this..that is why they want clinton to win.. which is why they voted in texas for clinton.. obama is still ahead in delegates.. and super-delegates are seceding to him apace.. obama will still win.. both the candidacy..and the presidency.. phil(


Wed, 05 Mar 2008 23:02:10 +0000

Interesting. I believe that Hillary is beatable by a Republican candidate, but Obama would be trickier... Heres an update: Hillary's victory is in question.

By: PaulL

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 20:42:22 +0000

Very interesting. It will go to the wire, I think that ultimately Clinton will probably get it, Obama will fade before then.

By: NeilM

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:56:18 +0000

deleted by author - duplicate post

By: NeilM

Wed, 05 Mar 2008 19:49:44 +0000

Gallup have Clinton in the lead nationally again 48% - 44%. It's fascinating to see how their support has oscillated - Same with Rasmussen - 48% - 43% But more intriguingly McCain's lead over Clinton is now less than his lead over Obama - so now Obama is the one that has less chance of winning in Nov (I take these match-ups with a large grain of salt, but the Obama camp have been taking them seriously when they favour him). That's going to be important if the race stays close.