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Comments on: Year in Prediction Markets

My opinions only. I do not represent any organization in this publication.

Last Build Date: Mon, 05 Feb 2018 01:21:56 +0000


By: Every post and category in 2005q1 on lite fizzle mode – Mike Linksvayer

Sun, 31 Mar 2013 08:07:24 +0000

[...] Year in Prediction Markets. None of the highlights matter 8 years later. Also see a previous refutation re what I did care about. [...]

By: Housing (Ad) Bubble « Mike Linksvayer

Fri, 23 Dec 2011 03:40:59 +0000

[...] price Hedgelets are still very thinly traded and only go out six months, a slight improvement over one quarter as of the beginning of this year. (Another complaint about HedgeStreet and to a lesser extent [...]

By: Harnessing The Collective Mind « Nova Spivack – Minding the Planet

Sun, 17 Jan 2010 20:27:27 +0000

[...] This prediction markets portal also has collected interesting links on the topic. Here is an informative blog post about recent prediction market attempts. Here is a scathing critique of some prediction [...]

By: Mike Linksvayer » Blog Archive » Google Futures

Thu, 22 Sep 2005 18:59:07 +0000

[...] On the subject of punditry, i.e., predictions made without consequence for the predictor, Art Hutchinson has claimed over the past several months that use of internal prediction markets is on the upswing. I said so in January. :-) [...]

By: Chris. F. Masse

Mon, 17 Jan 2005 13:30:14 +0000

Thanks for your interesting RSS tip. cfm

By: Mike Linksvayer

Sun, 16 Jan 2005 23:17:47 +0000

If you can run php scripts on your webserver you (or a friend who barely knows php) could generate a feed in the manner I described above using RSSWriter. I read that Luskin is saying that you picked his page, not the other way round, though I suppose any time one links to a page one "picks" the page.

By: Chris. F. Masse

Sun, 16 Jan 2005 22:02:04 +0000

Thanks for your tip. I use NVu (.com) and yes I just copy the files to my web server. Hey, here's a link I found: Content feeds with RSS 2.0 By the way, neocon Donald Luskin has picked my webpage: Ciao, Chris.

By: Mike Linksvayer

Sun, 16 Jan 2005 18:39:39 +0000

Bonjour Chris, Sure, if there has to be a single litmus test I agree the US presidential election is it. How you go about setting up a site feed is entirely dependent upon the software used to manage your site. Are you using any sort of "Content Management System" or are you simply copying HTML files to your server? If you're using CMS/blog software, it probably supports RSS out of the box. Just figure out how to turn it on. If not you need to adopt such software or write a custom script that generates a feed based on file modification timestamps or similar.

By: Chris. F. Masse

Sat, 15 Jan 2005 11:05:35 +0000

Hello Mike, #1. The US presidential election is the litmus test of any prediction exchange, and of the whole prediction markets field, in my view. 20 million bucks at stake, plus dozens more of free publicity in the Press (mostly by incompetent stenographers who republish PR releases, but this is another story). #2. That's what I've just wrote to Chris Hibbert (the zMarket guy), I really need to install the RSS stuff. It's such a mutant technology. I was not able to find a page that could explain it to an amateurish webmaster like me in "simple" terms. Can you think of any link of interest? Thanks for all the readers that you brought to my page. Who needs the search engines anymore now that we have the blogosphere?

By: Mike Linksvayer

Mon, 10 Jan 2005 20:44:03 +0000

Chris, apologies for misreading you as a Bush fanboy. I certainly agree that getting predictions right deserves praise. But the U.S. presidential election winner is only one prediction. Would be interesting to compare various markets' track records across multiple predictions. If you have a RSS feed for updates to your site please point it out. Happy new half decade!