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Updated: 2015-09-17T03:11:57.126-05:00

 



Sharing Our Less-than-fair Share of Oil Revenue

2008-07-06T17:43:10.718-05:00

Thank you, bayoustjohndavid, for reminding me about this.Sen. Mary Landrieu called the Gulf of Mexico Energy Security Act of 2006 (GOMESA) the “fair share” bill. Not quite, if you compare it to what states get for onshore drilling on federal lands.A slide show from the Mineral Management Service outlines how offshore revenue in the outer continental shelf (OCS) - the federally administered seas - will be shared with the Gulf Coast states under GOMESA, just as onshore drilling revenue from federally administered land is shared with the states where it is generated. I am calling “unfair” on a few points.UNFAIR #1: Gulf Coast states will get a decreased share of OCS offshore revenue off their borders until 2017. The government will not share money generated from all federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico until 2017 (and we still won’t get any credit for leases sold before 2008). For the next nine years, Gulf Coast states will get a share of revenue in new federal leases in just two areas: 181 East and 181 South. Starting in 2017, we get a share of revenue from all new leases – but just new leases.The latest lease sale in March is a good example of what we are missing until 2017:Two federal sales of offshore oil and natural gas leases in the Eastern and Central Gulf of Mexico attracted more than $3.7 billion in high bids today…***The first sale, the Central Gulf of Mexico Sale 206, attracted a record-setting $3,677,688,245 in high bids. This sets the record in high bids in U.S. leasing history since area-wide leasing began in 1983.***For Eastern Gulf of Mexico Sale 224, MMS received 58 bids from 6 companies on 36 tracts resulting in $ 64,713,213 in high bids with an estimated 37.5 percent of that amount going directly to four Gulf producing States.Sale 224 had leases in the 181 areas, the areas that Gulf states get a share of. And, as the press release stated, we get 37.5 percent of those leases, or around $24.2 million – split between four states.That’s a lot of money. But, if this were 2017, the Gulf Coast states would be splitting 37.5 percent of both sales, which would come out to $1.4 billion – a big difference, and one that would help us out in our attempt to pull together the required matching funds for federal flood protection projects.UNFAIR #2: Four Gulf Coast states must share 37.5 percent of offshore revenue while onshore drilling states get (at least) 50 percent of the revenue generated on federal land in their state.That speaks for itself. It just sucks.Here is how the MMS divides onshore revenue from drilling on federally owned land:Distribution of revenues associated with onshore federal lands is split 50-40-10, with 50 percent of the money going directly to the state within which the specific lease was located. Forty percent is sent to the Reclamation Fund of the U.S. Treasury. This special account finances the Bureau of Reclamation's water projects in 17 western states. The remaining 10 percent goes to the Treasury's General Fund.One exception, Alaska, gets a 90 percent share of the revenues. The remainder goes to the U.S. Treasury. Emphasis mine.Not only does 50 percent go to the onshore drilling states (90 percent to Alaska), but if you live in one of the 17 western states that have Bureau of Reclamation water projects, then you get a share of another 40 percent. The Gulf Coast states, in contrast, *collectively* get 37.5 percent of offshore drilling revenues. For each individual state, that number is even smaller than it looks – split into 30 and 7.5. The state governments get the 30 percent, then divide it further among the four of them (Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Texas). And the oil-producing parishes and counties split up the 7.5 percent. This document shows the "42 subdivisions."UNFAIR #3: Offshore revenue has strings attached. Onshore revenue doesn’t.Half of onshore drilling revenue goes “directly to the state within which the specific lease was located.” According to a 2003 fact sheet, the onshore revenue can be “used as the States deem necessary[...]



More on murder rates: Jefferson Parish and New Orleans

2008-06-16T03:25:58.728-05:00

So, going by my previous post, the FBI says New Orleans had a murder rate of 95 murders per 100,000 residents in 2007. That’s high - probably too high, because the US Census population numbers for New Orleans were low. My calculation is more like a murder rate of 80 (that’s what I am using here).

What about Jefferson Parish?

By my count, Jefferson Parish (including incorporated and unincorporated JP) had at least 55 murders in 2007. By the US Census’ count, Jefferson Parish had 423,520 people last year. JP officials say that number is too low. I am okay with it as an average for 2007.

That makes the Jefferson Parish 2007 murder rate 13 murders per 100,000 residents.

Wow.

Jefferson Parish had a murder rate of 13 last year. New Orleans – right next door – had a murder rate of 80 (going by my count).

Using my population numbers (260,000 for NOLA, which is different from the US Census, and 423,000 for JP), the combined JP/NOLA murder rate for 2007 is 38 murders per 100,000 – still in the top 10 highest 2007 murder rates according to the FBI:
1. Gary, IN – 73 (pop. 97,048)
2. Richmond, CA – 46 (pop. 102,471)
3. Baltimore, MD – 45 (pop. 624,237)
4. Detroit, MI – 44 (pop. 860,971)
5. St. Louis, MO – 40 (pop. 348,197)
6. Birmingham, AL – 38 (pop. 227,686)
7. JP/NOLA – 38 (pop. 683,000)
8. Newark, NJ – 37 (pop. 280,158)
9. Baton Rouge – 31 (pop. 228,446)
10. Oakland, CA – 30 (pop. 396,541)
A more optimistic calculation would use a NOLA population of 300,000 and a JP population of 445,000. Those numbers seem high to me. Nevertheless, the “optimistic” combined murder rate would be 35 per 100,000 residents – still in the top 10 highest.

My point here is to show that something is going on. New Orleans’ murder rate is way too high. Even factoring in JP’s 2007 population – anywhere from 150,000 to 200,000 more people – and JP’s lower murder total, the combined 2007 murder rate is still near the top in the country.

Something is going on.



The New Orleans murder rate is still really high

2008-06-15T14:49:36.211-05:00

I haven’t posted in a while, but I have continued to track murders in the city. As of June 15, we are up to at least 88 murders in New Orleans.On June 9, the FBI released its Preliminary Annual Uniform Crime Report for 2007, which “is based on information that the FBI gathered from 12,032 law enforcement agencies that submitted six to 12 comparable months of data to the FBI for both 2006 and 2007.” For reported murders in 2007, here are the ten cities with the most murders, followed by their counts:Total Murders in 20071. New York, NY – 4962. Chicago, IL – 4433. Philadelphia, PA – 3924. Los Angeles, CA – 3905. Detroit, MI – 3836. Houston, TX – 3517. Baltimore, MD – 2828. Phoenix, AZ – 2139. New Orleans, LA – 20910. Dallas, TX – 200New Orleans isn’t #1 when it comes to total murders. We’re #9. That’s good news.But I am sure you noticed that one of these cities is not like the others. Here are the same ten cities in order of their official 2007 populations:1. New York, NY – 8,220,1962. Los Angeles, CA – 3,870,4873. Chicago, IL – 2,824,4344. Houston, TX – 2,169,5445. Phoenix, AZ – 1,541,6986. Philadelphia, PA – 1,435,5337. Dallas, TX – 1,239,1048. Detroit, MI – 860,9719. Baltimore, MD – 624,23710. New Orleans, LA – 220,614That population difference translates into an incredibly high murder rate (murders per 100,000 residents) for New Orleans when compared to the other cities. Here’s are the same ten cities is order of murder rates:1. New Orleans, LA – 952. Baltimore, MD – 453. Detroit, MI – 444. Philadelphia, PA – 275. Houston, TX – 166. Dallas, TX – 167. Chicago, IL – 168. Phoenix, AZ – 149. Los Angeles, CA – 1010. New York, NY – 6Now, an important note: New Orleans officials dispute the US Census number for 2007. They say the US Census number is too low. One local estimate put the year end population of 2007 at 300,000. Of course, in the case of a rapidly repopulating city, you can’t use December numbers for the entire year. The number I like to use for New Orleans’ 2007 population is 260,000, which is in the middle of the US Census estimate and the year end estimate. But even with the higher number of 260,000, New Orleans sits atop the murder rate list with a rate of 80 murders per 100,000 residents.In fact, if you use the year end population of 300,000, New Orleans still is atop the above list with a murder rate of 70.Another important note: the above list is not the top 10 murder rates in the country going by the FBI numbers. I am using the cities with the top 10 total murders and reordering them according to their murder rates. I do this because the total amount of murders is a concrete number, a “real” number. It doesn’t change when you factor in percentages. If 209 people are violently killed in your city, 209 people are dead whether you divide it by the total population or not.Here are the cities with the top ten murder rates in 2007 (going by official US Census numbers):1. New Orleans, LA – 95 (pop. 220,614)2. Gary, IN – 73 (pop. 97,048)3. Richmond, CA – 46 (pop. 102,471)4. Baltimore, MD – 45 (pop. 624,237)5. Detroit, MI – 44 (pop. 860,971)6. St. Louis, MO – 40 (pop. 348,197)7. Birmingham, AL – 38 (pop. 227,686)8. Newark, NJ – 37 (pop. 280,158)9. Baton Rouge – 31 (pop. 228,446)10. Oakland, CA – 30 (pop. 396,541)One more thing. If you use New Orleans' population before the storm of 454,000 with 2007’s murder count of 209, we get a murder rate of 46. That would have still put New Orleans tied with Richmond, CA, at #2 on the top 10 murder rate list.My point: the murder rate is really high in New Orleans. It’s a problem, no matter what population numbers you use. The FBI numbers I used can be found here.[...]



Anything change while I was gone?

2008-06-15T11:23:16.375-05:00

posted by m.d.


Okay, I think I’m back. Let’s see if I can post regularly again.

I’ll start off with an easy one:
The deputies and Drug Enforcement Agency special agents got permission to search the car, and a drug sniffing dog alerted them to the car's passenger side. The occupants were ordered out of the car, and patted down. During the pat-down, the U.S. Attorney's Office says, officers felt a large, hard object in the pants area on Keys.



Ashley Morris: the man

2008-04-06T11:39:58.923-05:00

posted by m.d.

I echo jeffrey's words. The few times I met Ashley in person, the dude was real.

When I mentioned in a post that I played tuba in high school, he asked me in an email if I still had the tuba. He said he had a drum and we could do a brass band thing.

I regret I did not still have that tuba to have shared that experience with the man.

Damn.

Help his family and donate to the Ashley Morris fund.

A website is being set up: rememberashleymorris.com.



A Recovery that Doesn't Work

2008-01-27T23:42:11.398-06:00

posted by m.d.If there are no workers:Thousands of blue-collar workers like Washington who never lived in publicly subsidized housing increasingly have no place to live in New Orleans. The planned demolition of 4,500 publicly subsidized apartments is less significant to the future, policy experts say, than Katrina's destruction of nearly 41,000 inexpensive rentals that once housed the city's self-sufficient working class.With no concrete plan to replace those apartments, some say the city's economic base erodes with every blue-collar worker pushed out by higher living costs.***Amid predictions affordable housing could be indefinitely out of reach for blue collar workers, state and federal agencies offered landlords a subsidy to accept lower-income tenants. The effort is falling short because landlords can get high rent in the post-Katrina free market without dealing with bureaucratic red tape. To date, there are only 550 of these subsidized apartments.Long term, the Bush administration has offered tax breaks to developers to build mixed-income housing. Two and a half years after the storm, little such construction is evident.No apartments, but plenty of homes:More than 8,800 houses are for sale in the New Orleans area – almost as many as were sold in the last 12 months, according to one of the city's leading real estate brokerage firms. High insurance costs and the crash in the mortgage market nationwide have slowed sales.Thousands more damaged houses are being bought by the state of Louisiana through its Road Home program. It pays homeowners for their losses in the 2005 hurricanes. These houses will be turned over to local governments for redevelopment or resale.Meanwhile, 27,500 families, mostly from New Orleans, are still living in tiny, tinny government-issued travel trailers across the state.If you have been waiting for rebuilding help that never came and now you want to sell, that's tough too:A new study of home prices around the New Orleans area shows that buyers rewarded sellers who gambled and rebuilt in devastated areas like Lakeview, eastern New Orleans and Chalmette. Renovated homes in those areas recovered much of their pre-storm value last year, while prices continued to tumble on homes that were gutted but otherwise left untouched.Wade Ragas, the retired University of New Orleans professor who prepared the study, said buyers have gotten wise to the amount of money and drudgery it takes to bring a damaged house back from the dead. Heartsick from being displaced for two years, distrustful of contractors and insurance companies, buyers are shopping for houses that have already been repaired for them.Tipping point? What tipping point?[Federal coordinator for Gulf Coast rebuilding Donald] Powell disagreed with Mayor Ray Nagin’s assertion that 2008 will be a tipping point in New Orleans’ recovery from the levee breaches that put most of the city under water and left behind massive destruction.The recovery seems to have entered a new phase, with Nagin and other local officials who had decried the pace of federal aid saying money is starting to flow more freely and that the responsibility now falls on them to put it to smart use.I've heard that something's "getting ready to explode."Duck.[...]



A Connection?

2008-01-27T10:23:46.868-06:00

posted by m.d.


Anthony Amato resigns as the Kansas City School District Superintendent in a similar way that he left New Orleans.

The last I heard, Sandra "18-Wheeler" Hester was living in Glasgow, a small city about two hours away from Kansas City.

Could it be... Sandra?



What a Wonderful Thing to Say

2008-01-25T22:59:56.338-06:00

posted by m.d.


Rev. Jack Battiste of the New Testament Baptist Church in the 9th Ward on why his church will make a comeback:
"The love of the city exceeds the hardship."
I just liked that. I liked it because I read it two ways. First, that the reverend's love of the city he lives in is greater than the hardships he faces. Then I looked at it again and read it as the city's love - the love the city feels for her residents - is greater than the hardships we face.

The city's love exceeds the hardships. I think that is important. The residents already love New Orleans. That's why they are here.

New Orleans must love her residents back.

The article is written by a journalist from Northern Michigan. She also maintains a blog on her newspaper's website. In it, she writes of her experience in the Lower 9th and St. Bernard Parish:
It’s hard to believe it’s been more than two years since Katrina, judging from the state of neighborhoods like these. And seeing the devastation firsthand makes it seem all the more real.
Journalists keeping having that same reaction when they come down for the first time.

I must keep reminding myself that this year is the "tipping point."



Sunday Morning Peter Tosh

2008-01-20T10:43:19.020-06:00

posted by m.d.


When stuff like this happens, I think of this song.

(embed)



Last Murder Victim of 2007

2008-01-18T00:04:10.214-06:00

posted by m.d.


I hope.
Nearly five months after robbers opened fire on seven people in an eastern New Orleans home, fatally wounding three, a fourth victim has died, the Orleans Parish coroner's office said.

Kiengkay Chomsy, 42, of eastern New Orleans, died Tuesday at 4:30 p.m. at Canon Hospice, a day after he was transferred from University Hospital, chief coroner's investigator John Gagliano said. Chomsy died of complications from gunshot wounds to his head.
Another name on my list, which is now 207 murders in the city of New Orleans in 2007. I count murders that I can find reported on in the media. The NOPD’s official number was 209. I do not know if they will count this death as a 2007 or 2008 murder.

As for this year, we have 11 murders in the first 18 days. Once again, about a murder every other day. That rate has been fairly consistent, even with more people moving into the city. If the population growth is slowing down, that might be the rate per day we are stuck with.

Cliff’s Crib directed me to the field negro’s blog (that is the title of the blog – I feel like I need to point that out). On it, the field negro (once again, that’s the blogger’s name) is tracking media reports of murders in Philadelphia which he calls the “Killadelphia Murder Count.” When I visited yesterday, there were 11 homicides in “Killadelphia,” three of which were vehicular homicides.

Philadelphia has around 1.4 million people in it. I prefer the New Orleans estimate that's around 300,000 people.

I don’t expect the total of Philadelphia murders (not including vehicular homicides) to stay lower than New Orleans for long. Last year, the city had 392 murders.

But my first reaction was: “Wow. We have more murders than a place called Killadelphia. What does that make us?”

At a ceremony to reopen NOPD headquarters yesterday, Superintendent Warren Riley:
"We will reduce our violent crime by year's end," Riley said.
I wonder if he means total numbers or per capita. It makes a difference.



Sunday Morning Bob Marley

2008-01-13T09:55:54.421-06:00

posted by m.d.


(embed)

I just can't believe the loveliness of loving you.



The Mayor Is Wearing No Costume

2008-01-10T23:38:47.893-06:00

posted by m.d.


At the end of an article entitled "National Guard patrols slated for Endymion parade":
Chatting with reporters in a hallway, Nagin said he hasn't decided what his Fat Tuesday costume will be.

"Last year, people were asking 'Where is the mayor?' so I came as myself, " he said.
Is there a "C. Ray? Here I am!" t-shirt in the works?



Ensuring FEMA Reimbursements

2008-01-10T23:16:29.081-06:00

posted by m.d.


The City of New Orleans hired MWH, formerly known as Montgomery Watson Harza, to guide city rebuilding:
MWH's role will include monitoring the work; ensuring uniformity in documentation provided to the Federal Emergency Management Agency for reimbursement; and making the process more transparent, company chief executive Bob Uhler said.
I assume MWH will be trying to avoid situations like this:
The deal with Montgomery Watson Harza, however, has sparked questions from FEMA officials, who say it violates federal rules by tying profits to costs. The agreement also has raised eyebrows at the FBI, which issued subpoenas last year for documents related to a subcontractor linked to longtime water board member Benjamin Edwards.

The alleged problem with the contract's structure, which critics say provides no incentive to keep costs low, has spawned another reimbursement feud, which S&WB officials say has retarded further the progress of sewer system repairs.
More:
According to a Nov. 3 letter by Public Works Director Robert Mendoza, state officials are using the findings of the fiscal review as a reason to hold back $9.6 million that they already have received from the feds for the Montgomery Watson contract. The state department serves as the pass-through agency for disaster appropriations to local entities.
(All above emphasis mine.)

h/t jeffrey and his commenters



Black and White

2008-01-08T22:46:21.663-06:00

posted by m.d.


New Orleans public school enrollment numbers as of Oct 2007:
Recovery School District (RSD) – 11,608 students
97.49% black
0.56% white

RSD Charter Schools
UNO - New Beginnings Schools Foundation – 886 students
98.42% black
0.23% white

New Orleans College Preparatory Academies – 120 students
99.17% black
0.00% white

Esperanza Charter School Association ¬– 322 students
50.00% Hispanic
48.45% black
1.55% white

NOLA 180 – 119 students
99.16% black
0.00% white

Broadmoor Charter School Board – 341 students
97.95% black
0.88% white

Pelican Education Foundation – 445 students
95.51% black
0.67% white

Dryades YMCA – 701 students
99.43% black
0.00% white

Friends of King – 554 students
100.00% black
0.00% white

New Orleans Charter School Foundation – 595 students
97.48% black
1.01% white

Choice Foundation – 613 students
98.21% black
1.79% white

Treme Charter Schools Association – 473 students
100.00% black
0.00% white

Algiers Charter Schools Association (ACSA) – 3,472 students
96.37% black
0.52% white

SUNO Institute for Academic Excellence – 320 students
96.88% black
1.25% white

Knowledge Is Power Program (KIPP) N.O. – 712 students
95.79% black
3.37% white

Middle School Advocates, Inc. – 367 students
98.64% black
0.82% white

RSD & RSD Charter Total – 21,648 students
96.76% black
0.67% white

Type 2 Charter Schools
International School of Louisiana – 452 students
46.46% black
27.43% white
24.34% Hispanic

Milestone/SABIS – 330 students
97.58% black
0.00% white

Orleans Parish & OPSB Charter Schools – 9,719 students
75.89% black
15.40% white
6.03% Asian
2.57% Hispanic

All New Orleans Public Schools – 32,149 students
28,855 black students (89.75%)
1,765 white students (5.49%)



It’s Hard Not To Be Morose

2008-01-06T14:39:03.205-06:00

posted by m.d.


Six days, five murders in New Orleans. All shot.

Also, two non-fatal shootings. One is not life threatening. One victim was in critical condition.

A year later, and we are still on our bloodied knees.

Once again, the murder rate is not a blip.

In decidedly less morose news, I can start eating king cakes again. As of last year, and with the demise of McKenzie’s, my favorite king cakes come from Hi-Do Bakery on Terry Parkway in beautiful downtown Terrytown.

And, yes, this post contained murders and king cakes in it.



Sunday Morning Bob Marley

2008-01-06T00:33:43.750-06:00

posted by m.d.


(embed)

Said I'm a living man.
I've got work to do.



I Don't Care Much For Politicians

2008-01-05T22:40:48.950-06:00

posted by m.d.But it worries me when they leave office to become Washington lobbyists, as Representative Richard Baker is considering:In an interview, Baker said he will enter into talks with the Managed Funds Association, the Washington trade group representing the $1.8 trillion hedge fund industry. He said he could decide within "a week or ten days" whether he will take a job as president and chief administrative officer.***If he takes the job, Baker said he could step down by early February. His departure would be the latest in a sudden exodus from Capitol Hill of Louisiana lawmakers.From MFA’s website, emphasis mine:MFA meets regularly with policy makers and their staff. To date MFA has met with more than 140 Members of Congress and staff. MFA testifies at hearings on Capitol Hill on a variety of issues, including systemic risk, pensions, and taxation: March 13, 2007—MFA Director and Clinton Group Founder and CEO George Hall, MFA Member and Taconic Capital Advisors Co-Founder and Principal Kenneth D. Brody, and MFA Member and Kynikos Associates Founder and President James S. Chanos testified before the House Financial Services Committee for a hearing entitled “Hedge Funds and Systemic Risk in the Financial Markets.”From Baker’s bio page, emphasis mine:Baker also serves as a longstanding member of the House Financial Services Committee, where he is widely viewed as an expert on capital markets, insurance, and housing finance.I know Baker filed some papers under the new Honest Leadership and Open Government Act of 2007. But, what about the one year cooling-off part?MEMBERS AND OFFICERS OF THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES- (i) Any person who is a Member of the House of Representatives or an elected officer of the House of Representatives and who, within 1 year after that person leaves office, knowingly makes, with the intent to influence, any communication to or appearance before any of the persons described in clause (ii) or (iii), on behalf of any other person (except the United States) in connection with any matter on which such former Member of Congress or elected officer seeks action by a Member, officer, or employee of either House of Congress, in his or her official capacity, shall be punished as provided in section 216 of this title.`(ii) The persons referred to in clause (i) with respect to appearances or communications by a former Member of the House of Representatives are any Member, officer, or employee of either House of Congress and any employee of any other legislative office of the Congress.If he takes the job, whom would Baker lobby if not a “Member, officer, or employee of either House of Congress and any employee of any other legislative office of the Congress?”Oh.Although former lawmakers cannot lobby members of Congress or their staff, they can lobby executive branch officials and direct a firm's congressional lobbying efforts."It's a completely ineffectual restriction on the revolving door," said Craig Holman of the left-leaning watchdog group Public Citizen, which found that 18 members of Congress who left office in 2004 had lobbying jobs by July 2005.That commentary was given before the final passage, though I believe it applies.Baker is also Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Water Resources and the Environment, which holds jurisdiction over the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers wetlands projects.Yey, hedge funds.[...]



The Skeletons of New Orleans

2008-01-05T13:07:35.541-06:00

posted by m.d.


Parts of New Orleans were abandoned before the storm:
The Orleans Parish coroner's office is seeking the identity of a person whose skeletal remains were found by workers in the unoccupied C.J. Peete public housing complex Friday morning.

***

The body was in an area where people apparently had taken up residence though the complex had been closed since before Katrina and was fenced in. There were blankets, food, a place where fires probably had been made, and an ice chest.
Related – two homeless people freeze to death.

A commenter on nola.com regarding the homeless deaths:
The freeze did not kill these people. Their decision to not accept shelter killed them.

Now the TP writer is putting freeze in the same class as guns and SUVs. They all need human participation to become lethal.
Freezing temperatures do not kill people. Human participation in freezing temperatures kills people.

The world keeps giving me more to think about.



Four Days into 2008, Two Murders

2008-01-04T23:50:45.432-06:00

posted by m.d.First murdered person this year, shot and then burned. He had “RIP” tattooed on his arm. The second, shot near his home in Algiers.The violence continues at the same rate as last year – a murder every other day.New Orleans Post-Katrina Murder RateThe higher murder rate post-Katrina is not a blip, nor is it made up of a series of blips. It has been consistent.Looking at NOPD numbers for 2006 and my count for 2007, we can see this in the quarterly results:2006 Jan – Jun: 17 murders2006 Apr – Jun: 382006 Jul – Sep: 532006 Oct – Dec: 53* 2007 Jan – Mar: 482007 Apr – Jun: 502007 Jul – Sep: 532007 Oct – Dec: 55The population of New Orleans was still recovering through the first half of 2006, so the number of murders were thankfully lower. In July, the U.S. Census had the city’s population at 223,000.To calculate the murder rate, you take murders per 365 days. Then, divide the population by 100,000 (murders per 100,000 residents). Now, divide the murders-per-365-days by the population-divided-by-100,000.There have been 367 murders in 730 days (2 years), which is equal to 183 murders in 365 days.Using today’s estimated population of 300,000 – which is high for 2006 through the first months of 2007 – I get a murder rate of 61 murders per 100,000 residents in the City of New Orleans in the first two years after Katrina. Using higher population numbers makes the murder count lower. But there is nothing low about a murder rate of 61.And from July 2006 to the end of 2007, the quarterly (3 months) number of murders stays consistently around the average of 51, even with more people moving into New Orleans. What that suggests to me is that the people moving here are not killing anyone. I want to say it could mean law enforcement tactics are starting to work because the numbers of murders are not going up with the growing population. But the murder rate is too high to say that anything in the criminal justice system is “working.”It does support law enforcers’ claim that a small group of the usual suspects are causing all the violent crime problems, as was made in August 2007:There have been more than ten shootings in the last five days, five of them fatal – and NOPD Sergeant Joe Narcisse said past trends reveal the same suspects. "We have a small group of individuals that are committing most of the crimes, they are responsible for a large portion of the actual crimes that happen here in our city."If that is true, then we need to put most of our resources into the area where this small group of individuals operates – and I don’t mean more police. I’m talking more recovery resources. I’m talking CDBG money. I’m talking new schools, new community centers, new housing, new roads, new businesses.That's it.****I count one more than the NOPD because they count the last murder in 2006 as a 2007 murder. And for 2007, the NOPD count is three higher (209) than mine (206). I have not found a media report for the three I don’t count. Possibly, the murder I count in 2006 is one of the three 2007 murders I don't have.[...]



Who Was Murdered in 2007

2008-01-02T22:49:28.173-06:00

posted by m.d.


They were mostly men.

Of the 206 New Orleans murders in 2007 that I could find reported on in the media, 188 were men, 16 were women. I could not identify two people’s gender. At least 91% of the people killed were men.

They were mostly under 30.

The average age of a person murdered was 28.

22.8% (47) were under 21 years old.
23.7% (49) were 21 – 25.
17.9% (37) were 26 – 30.

That makes 64.5% (133) of those murdered 30 years old or younger.

They were mostly shot.

194 were shot. 94% were killed by a bullet.

Race?

I don’t know. The media generally does not print the race of the murder victims. NOPD press releases gave the race at the beginning of the year, but quickly stopped. Of the few they printed, they were mostly black. Based on personal experience as a news photographer, my guess is that "mostly black" is accurate all the murders. But, I can not back that up with facts.

When I started as a freshman at Jesuit High School, I was 13 years old (I have a late birthday). I was 17 when I graduated. A lot of my friends were 18. So, high school age is from 13 to 18.

25 murder victims were 15 to 18 years old – high school age. That’s a classroom full of teenagers who died instead of graduating high school. 24 were young men.

Did they ever have a chance? I wonder if they sensed that they had lived half their lives or more when they turned nine. I am in my thirties and I expect to live another thirty.

Then again, to quote a recent commenter on a previous post: “Damn life really aint promised.”



The Parish Line

2008-01-01T14:56:35.722-06:00

posted by m.d.


The NOPD says 209 people were murdered in New Orleans in 2007. I found 206 media reports of murders in 2007. For the rest of this post, I will use my numbers because I know where they came from.

In Jefferson Parish, the Sheriff’s Office reports 30 murders through September. In this December 28 T-P article, JPSO says there were 44 murders in unincorporated Jefferson Parish in 2007. I found 13 murders in October, November, and December on the JP Crime Tracker map. Add the Dec 28 murder, and that adds up to 44 in 2007.

Kenner PD says there were 9 murders or non-negligent manslaughters through October there. I can find 8 media reports or KPD press releases for murders in the same period. Since I am not sure if there was one non-negligent manslaughter, I will only count 8. I found one more media report of a murder in Kenner in November, which makes 9 total in 2007.

I know of two in Gretna. I believe there were none in the other JP cities.

That makes at least 55 murders in Jefferson Parish.

206 in New Orleans. 55 in Jefferson Parish. That’s a big difference.

Here’s a bigger difference. New Orleans has an estimated population of around 300,000. Jefferson Parish has about 445,000 people in it (98% of pre-Katrina).

206 murders with 300,000 people equals a murder rate of 68 murders per 100,000 people.

55 murders with 445,000 people equals a murder rate of 12 murders per 100,000 people.

That's a big difference.

The combined rate is better – 261 murders with 745,000 people equals a murder rate of 35 murders per 100,000 people. But, it masks the problems in the New Orleans if you combine them. Geographically, only a parish line divides New Orleans and Jefferson Parish. There should not be this big a difference.

Official numbers will come out later this year. There might be more murders in Jefferson Parish than I am counting, but not enough to catch up to New Orleans.

Graphing the murders in JP and NOLA by month using my numbers, the second half of the year stands out. When murders went down in New Orleans, they went up in JP, and vice versa.
(image) I’ll have to think about what that means.



Goodbye, 2007

2008-01-01T11:19:08.661-06:00

posted by m.d.In 2007, there were at least 206 murders in New Orleans. That’s a murder every 1.7 days – basically, a murder every other day. In a city of 300,000 people, that is a murder rate of 68 murders per 100,000 residents.On at least 147 days in 2007, a person – or more than one person – died a violent death on the streets of New Orleans.We here about most of their deaths, but we don’t hear many of their names. Here are their names, or at least as many as I could find:Corey HayesCedric JohnsonHilary Campbell Jr.Randall ThomasKevin WilliamsHelen HillJealina BrownSteve BlairJeffery Santos Chivas DoyleChristopher RuthTyrone Andrew JohnsonRonald HolmesJames McGittigan Jr.Roy Warner Jr.Eldon GaddisDavid CraterDaniel AllenChrishondolaye LamotheTamara GabrielRobert DawsonMichael DunbarDamon BrooksIvan BrooksAlden WrightHarrison MillerRoy GrantDavid CagnalattiLionel Ware IIIAaron AllenJosh RodrigueHerbert PrestonByron LoveRonnie KeelenMitchell PierceKevin PhamKevana PriceWarren ThompsonGlynn Francois Jr.Sean RobinsonLarry Ramee IIIWarren SimpsonAntoine WilliamsTerry DespenzaEldridge EllisTravis JohnsonPhillip R. BoykinsCharley ZenoCarl Anthony McLendonTerry BrockCleveland DanielsAlexander WilliamsTerry HallDominic BellGregory SingletonDamont JenkinsTroy ThomasArtherine WilliamsKeith MooreNicholas SmithEligio Bismark EspinozaDaniel L. PrietoCurtis Helms Jr.Troy DentCurtis BrensonMichael CombsJay LandersMark OnealCorey ColemanEmanuel GardnerEdward Charles BalserArthur DowellMontrell FaulkinAnthony PlacideErnest WilliamsHarry Heinzt Jr.Robert BilliotWillie SimmonsTammie JohnsonLarry HawkinsTerrell CeazerGeorge HammondPersale R. GreenJoseph MageeAlbert PhillipsSamuel GonzalesDarryl WilliamsRobin MaltaJason WynneJerrell JacksonChristopher RobertsSamuel Williams Jr.Jeremy TillmanJennifer WilliamsGary WallsArthur Jackson IVHenry NewmanJohnny Martin IIITravan CoatesJeffery TateJerome BanksEric FobbsKeith PageAdrian DavisPaul BurksLeon Williams Jr.Dallas JeromeJames JohnsonAnthony WhiteDellshea LeBlancJohn W. Barrow IIIKevin UnderwoodPablo Mejia Jr.unidentified manThomas Jacksonunidentified manDemond PhillipsMichael PhillipsLuong NguyenAnjelique VuTerry JohnsonChauncy SmithCornelius CurryNia RobertsonKadeem WisePercy ReadFreddie Davis IIEdwin StuartCorwin ShafferJulio Benitez-CruzWilford HolmesPerry L. OliverDonald GullageKong Kham VongvilayWisan InthamatBoon RoopmohLouis HeimBrandon SnowtonCarnell WallisThomas DominickLarry GoodenGerald HowardLarry Butler Jr.Phillip A. Carmouche Jr.unidentified manAaron HarveyMario Anthony GreenJason SnyderPerry WattsLionel J. HillsWarren Martin Dwayne LandryDon SmithDemetrius GoodenTownsend Bennettunidentified manThelonius DukesGregory HayesCharles MillerEddie Bernardunidentified manCarmen Leona Reese Cedrick Brooks Waldon Howardunidentified manAntwon McGeeJason AndersonArchie SoletShana ThomasBrian LeeDavid Bryan Alford Jr.Brett Jason JacobsHoward PickensDarryl DaggonsMatthew QuallsAubrey PowellJohn BatisteToran LandryAnthony WalkerLester DenisCardero Davis Javier SanchezJulian MathinsTheodore J. LeachDaniel Baham Jubbar Scott Tyrone Lanaux Jr.Andre Toussaint Eddie SpillerCarlos MillerSheldon DeanRigoberto DominguezAngela Thomas BryantBrandon BrownJermaine TurnerAlejandro Pecina RuizGeorge Hankton IIIAaron WilliamsFrank Whittingtonunidentified personJesse JonesChanell Sanchell James JonesWendell MillroElizabeth ChapmanClayton Johnson Jr.I write “at least” for my numbers because I am only counting murders I can find[...]



I Think I See the Problem

2007-11-09T00:05:54.813-06:00

posted by m.d.


From the T-P:
Six bank accounts belonging to the Orleans Parish District Attorney's Office were frozen Thursday by a court order seeking payment for the $3.4 million judgment brought on by former DA Eddie Jordan's firing of scores of white employees in 2003.
The new D.A.:
In fact, just yesterday I met with the Mayor, City Council, business community, and other community leaders to provide a detailed analysis along with potential plans for finding a win-win solution.
The Mayor:
I have met with the new DA, members of City Council, business and community leaders to fully analyze the financial impact of the Federal judgment against the District Attorney's Office and to evaluate the steps needed to avoid a disruption in our criminal justice system.
Is any one talking to the plaintiffs’ attorneys?



Comparing Disasters

2007-11-06T11:58:58.847-06:00

posted by m.d.


It looks like Katrina in Mexico, except for one thing:
Images of filthy water engulfing Mexico's southern city as residents clung to the rooftops were reminiscent of the flooding that devastated New Orleans in 2005. But in the desolation of Villahermosa, there has been no widespread breakdown in law and order or four-figure death tolls. On the contrary, observers here say that Mexico's rapid response to its worst flooding in recent history was a factor in averting a catastrophe on the level of Katrina.

***

"You never felt that the government had totally disappeared even though our homes and city had been destroyed. You saw that officials were here and some help was coming in," said Javier Mendoza, 43, who fled his house with his family of eight on a navy boat.
The cynic in me wants to say, "Just wait two years."



NOLA's 40+ Under 21

2007-11-06T11:17:46.340-06:00

posted by m.d.


Not to take anything away from Gambit's 40under40 issue, but there is another 40 list I'd like to point out.

As of today, (at least) 41 people under the age of 21 have been murdered in the city of New Orleans in 2007.

width="300" height="300" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" marginheight="0" marginwidth="0" src="http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?ie=UTF8&hl=en&om=1&s=AARTsJotDOxWVEjSfmzweltQovQtEvTelA&msa=0&msid=112612075823542291054.00043e4538b6612643e5e&ll=29.966237,-90.066605&spn=0.178456,0.205994&z=11&output=embed">
View Larger Map

Just think about it. Instead of going to high school or college, they are dead. Nine in Central City alone.

And going by Greg Rigamer's new population estimates, New Orleans' murder rate for 2007 is 74 murders per 100,000 residents. 182 reported murders to date.