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The Numbers



Latest box office news from the web's leading movie box office web site



 



2017 - Holiday Gift Guide - Part III - Limited Releases, Classics, Foreign Imports

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Both the first installment First-run Releases and the second installment, TV on DVD releases, were shorter than I would have liked, as this hasn’t been a great year for either wide releases or TV on DVD releases. That said, the third installment of our Holiday Gift Guide deals with limited releases, classics, and foreign imports and this list can get out of hand rather quickly. There will more releases on this list than the previous two, starting with...




Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi Tops Tracking with $104.78 million Opening Day

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The Last Jedi topped last night’s estimate, earning $104.78 million on Friday. It is only the second film to reach the century mark during its opening day. It is still 12% lower than the $119 million The Force Awakens opened with, but if it has the same legs, it will earn $218 million during its opening weekend. The reviews are practically identical and both films earned an A from CinemaScore, so having similar legs is more likely. Sequels usually have shorter legs, but The Last Jedi had better growth from Thursday previews to Friday’s numbers, so this could be a good omen. Maybe it will earn $220 million during its opening weekend.




Early Friday Estimates Update: The Last Jedi Tracking Ticks Higher now at North of $100 million Opening Day

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Disney is really on top of the The Last Jedi hype train sending updated tracking of its opening day. Instead of aiming for $94 million to $99 million, the studio is aiming for $99 million to $104 million, putting on pace to be only the second film to earn $100 million during its opening day. Furthermore, CinemaScore released their final rating and it was a solid A, exactly what the reviews would suggest. The studio expects the film to make $205 million to $215 million over the weekend, which is close enough to our prediction that I’m happy.




Early Friday Estimates: The Last Jedi on Track for Nearly $100 million Opening Day

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Disney just sent out updated tracking for The Last Jedi’s opening Friday. The studio expects the film to earn in the mid- to high-$90 million range, which puts it on pace for approximately $200 million. If the film doesn’t get to $200 million over the weekend, then it will be more front-loaded than we anticipated and more front-loaded than the reviews would suggest. We will keep you posted as more numbers come in.




International Box Office: The Last Jedi Two-Day Total hits $60.8 million

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Star Wars: The Last Jedi opened in another 34 markets on Thursday, helping it reach $60.8 million internationally after just two days of release. At the same point in its run, The Force Awakens had $72.7 million, while Rogue One had $37 million. The Last Jedi is slightly closer to the high end rather than the low end, but not by enough that we need to adjust our prediction.




Thursday Night Previews: The Last Jedi Earns Second-Best Previews with $45 million - Updated with Ferdinand

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We expect Star Wars: The Last Jedi to have an opening weekend box office total almost exactly in the middle of The Force Awakens and Rogue One. Since those two films earned $57 million and $29 million respectively during their previews, The Last Jedi would need $43 million to be on target. According to Disney it pulled in $45 million last night, making it the second-best Thursday preview of all time. (The Force Awakens is number one, while Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part II was pushed into third place with $43.5 million.) That’s not a lot above where we needed it, but does make $210 million for the weekend more likely. Additionally, the reviews remain impressive at 93% positive, while the average score given by the critics so far is 8.2 out of 10. There were some grumblings that the audiences were less impressed; however, this appears to be internet buzz and not reflective of the real world. We don’t have the full ComScore grade yet, but they reported 90% positive results last night, as well as 82% in the “Definitely recommend” category. That’s simply fantastic. We will have a better picture by this time tomorrow when the Friday estimates arrive and we can compare legs with the previous two Star Wars films.




Limited and VOD Releases: Birdboy and the Forgotten Limited Releases

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Star Wars: The Last Jedi opens in theaters today and that’s scaring away all of the competition. There’s barely more than a dozen films we have release dates for, and none of them are earning serious buzz. If we limited ourselves to films with 10 or more reviews on Rotten Tomatoes, then this week’s list would be embarrassingly short. The best film on this week’s list is Birdboy: The Forgotten Children, but it is an foreign animated movie, so I’m not expecting much at the box office.




International Box Office: First Numbers for Last Jedi: $5.30 million Australian Debut

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The first box office numbers for Star Wars: The Last Jedi were released and it earned $5.30 million in Australia. This was $7.06 million in local currency, which is almost exactly in the middle of the local currency debuts for The Force Awakens ($9.45 million) and Rogue One ($4.78 million). It was short of exactly in the middle by less than 1%, which suggests an opening here of just over $200 million and that’s close enough to our prediction that I don’t feel the need to make a change there. Of course, that could change once we see the preview numbers later today.




Theater Counts [Update 2]: Last Jedi Launches in 4,232 Theaters

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As I predicted last week, the final theater count for The Last Jedi is about 100 more than Disney’s original projection. The latest from the Star Wars franchise will play in 4,232 theaters on Friday, 78 more than screened The Force Awakens two years ago.




Contest: Last Chance to Win - Last Minute Reminder

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Our final box office prediction contest closes in less than 24 hours, so I just wanted to give a last-minute warning to our readers so they all have a chance to enter. There are lots of prizes, including three copies of Game of Thrones: Season Seven on Blu-ray. You can go here to read the full rules, or click here to send in your prediction for Star Wars: The Last Jedi’s opening three-day weekend.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don’t delay!