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Felix is ours.

Updated: 2017-11-21T16:30:59-08:00


Lookout Landing’s Mariners 2018 Off-Season Plan



All the moves we’d love to see the Mariners make, in one convenient place

Here is our 2018 off-season plan in stream form for your perusal. This should make it easy for you, dear reader, to quickly locate our predictions and just laugh, and laugh, and laugh when Jerry trades the entire Tacoma Rainiers team to Tampa Bay (including their front office staff—sorry, Brett and Casey, hope you like humidity).

So far we’ve already taken one major hit at the 1B position, where we thought the Mariners would spend thanks to a deep free-agent class; others are sure to follow. What we are most proud of as a staff, however, is not the specific predictions, but the comprehensive nature of this plan, which addresses everything from upgrades at the utility position to building depth at the minors. While each of us have our personal hobbyhorses we championed throughout the process [pause to genuflect to picture of Tyler Chatwood propped up on my desk], in the end we compromised on a plan that we think will deliver the most short-term upgrades without sacrificing the future of the team. The names might change but hopefully the broad-brush ideas (spend money on pitching, stay athletic and relatively inexpensive in center field, don’t give 300 plate appearances to a negative-WAR utility player when you’re trying to rest starters) will mostly hold true.

A lot of work went into this and we are—justifiably, I think—very proud of the result. We hope you’ve found as much enjoyment in this series as we found in creating it. Let us know what you think!

Go Mariners.

Lookout Landing’s 2018 Mariners Off-Season Plan: The Conclusion


It’s like Candyland, if Candyland was made up of numbers and charts [In case you’ve missed the rest so far, you can find Parts I (pitching), II (1B+OF), and III (the rest) of the offseason plan linked above. Thanks for your patience, here is our final offseason decree.] We were so close, y’all. As we were tinkering with our tables and discussing our final preferences Wednesday afternoon, Jerry Dipoto made his first move, and rendered our Carlos Santana-centric plans moot. Following Dipoto for two years has trained us for surprising moves, however, and with Ryon Healy in the fold as the full-time 1B, being paid the league minimum, we’re pivoting to video a more aggressive plan to improve elsewhere. Namely, that means leaning into our Scenario A from the first leg of this plan, which involves reeling in Yu Darvish with that extra sweet, sweet cash. Farewell, Tyler Chatwood. We could have been beautiful together. That team looks only a few players different than our original preferred team, but those players are noteworthy. With 1B and DH fully off the table, the plausible positions available to improve shrink to OF and P. For our money, we decided to take the payroll freed up by Healy’s acquisition and swing bigger. Yu Darvish remains a longshot for the Mariners, but electing to go cheap at 1B shifted a Darvish signing from a pipe dream to a… small fish tank dream? I’m not sure quite how that metaphor works, but Darvish is a much more attainable (and necessary) target now than he was a week ago. At the very least, he’s one we felt Seattle could wrangle within their budget, if they’re willing to make a commitment. Jerry Dipoto has yet to sign any free agents to deals longer than two years in Seattle, but negotiating a contract extension for Jean Segura showed a willingness to commit years and dollars to the right player. Yu Darvish (6/$144) might not be the perfect player, but along with returning veteran CF Jarrod Dyson (2/$16), established UTIL Eduardo Nuñez (2/$18) and versatile swingman RHP Yusmeiro Petit (2/$12), Seattle can put together a team with playoff capability, flexibility, and even a hint of depth. Speaking of depth, without further ado, our Official 2018 Seattle Mariners Depth Chart: Tee Miller Originally, we planned on the Mariners pulling in a smaller fish like Tyler Chatwood or Jaime Garcia. As mentioned, however, with Healy in Santana’s place at 1B, it would have been difficult to justify another few small upgrades and be confident in the team’s initial position in the playoff hunt. Darvish is a big gamble, and extending him a six-year/$146 MM deal with an opt-out after 2019 that’s paid in increments of $18/23/25/26/27/27 could obviously burn the Mariners. Granting Darvish an opt-out, however, is unfortunately what may be the best way to set Seattle’s offers apart from the rest, particularly if they cannot outbid other teams with cash alone. Pursuing another path of smaller investments is more likely, but with uncertainty at 1B again, Seattle needs to pack a punch in its rotation. In a true ideal offseason, Shohei Ohtani is signed, in which case he’d slot in as Seattle’s No. 3 starter behind Paxton and Darvish. ZiPS projects Ohtani for 3.3 WAR as a pitcher (139.1 IP) and 1.4 WAR as a hitter/position player (300 PAs). As much as we’d love to slap those numbers onto our current totals, we figured it better to plan for reality as much as possible and let true uncertainties sort themselves out. Please do come to Seattle though, Shohei. Please. The rest of the lineup looks largely as expected, with Nuñez as the major addition. If you’re uncomfortable with the financials (which are discussed in greater depth below), trading Taylor Motter and Nick Vincent for Wilmer Difo and ~$500k in international bonus money fits the bill too. Difo has outperformed Motter and is younger, but is out of options, rendering him cheaper for the bullpen-starved Nats. Still, Nuñez has been one of the league’s premier utility players[...]

Mariners Moose Tracks, 11/21/17: Shohei Ohtani, Mariners Spring Training, and The Hall of Fame



Some links to get your Tuesday started.

Good morning everyone and happy Tuesday! Although we were supposed to find out if Japense sensation Shohei Ohtani was allowed to come to the states last night, the two sides agreed to move the deadline.

This trade feels similar to the Gamel trade, although Sears is more polished than either of the pieces who went in that trade, both of whom were rookie-level pitchers. But the process is the same: dealing from the lower levels of the organization to impact the upper levels. Rumbelow has major league time—in 15 innings with the Yankees he had a 3.84 FIP—and looks to make an impact in the major-league bullpen in 2018.

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