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... M's rotation for 2006: Felix, Washburn, Moyer, Jo-El, and a trade, or a kid ... that's about +70 runs on paper, barring a breakout by Carvajal, Foppert, or Nags ...



Updated: 2015-09-16T22:45:02.964-07:00

 



THE NEW HOUSE IS READY!!!!

2005-12-27T13:25:28.533-08:00

check it out at http://detectovision.com

This site will shut down soon. Please make your comments at the new site only. See you there.



2006 Offense: +70 Runs?

2005-12-27T03:07:01.723-08:00

.
Here are the 2006 projections from the Bill James Handbook. Jason Churchill did us a fave and typed them all in for us.

Note that these projections are NOT done by James himself, as is stated in the book, but the projections are fun because they're done by a third party. Nobody is going to accuse these projections as being homer-age. ;-)


(image)

As we'll explain in a second, if the 2006 M's were to hit the targets projected by the James Handbook, the club would have a very good offense:

Ichiro Suzuki - .326/.374/.431, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 45 BB, 63 K -- .806 OPS
Jeremy Reed - .294/.363/.412, 5 HR, 50 RBI, 48 BB, 58 K -- .775 OPS
Adrian Beltre - .274/.331/.479, 25 HR, 85 RBI, 41 BB, 90 K -- .810 OPS
Richie Sexson - .260/.357/.521, 37 HR, 112 RBI, 77 BB, 158 K -- .878 OPS
Raul Ibanez - .279/.346/.444, 19 HR, 79 RBI, 55 BB, 90 K -- .789 OPS
Jose Lopez - (337AB) .264/.295/.418, 7 HR, 45 RBI, 12 BB, 44 K -- .714 OPS
Carl Everett - .264/.336/.448, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 28 BB, 67 K -- .785 OPS
Yuniesky Betancourt - (209 AB) .273/.309/.397, 3 HR, 21 RBI, -- .706 OPS
Chris Snelling - (394 AB) .317/.387/.470, 10 HR, 56 RBI, 45 BB, 66 K -- .857
OPS


Not on there, Kenji Johjima or Matt Lawton. Let's plug them in at 770 and 750, respectively ... Lawton's production coming in about 300 AB's against righthanders.

Let's toss out the Snelling projection and let's assume that the bench, aside from Lawton, combines for a 675 OPS.

.

We'll Take It!, Dept.

If accurate, this would leave the 2006 M's at an OPS of around 770, compared to their 2005 OPS of 708, and compared to the 2005 Yankees' OPS of 805 and the 2005 Red Sox' OPS of 811.
Per the OPS rule of thumb in the post below, this means a gain of +70 runs, offensively, over 2005. Since the 770 OPS is already adjusted for Safeco, the Mariners would have one of the AL's best offenses ...

IF what? If their hitters performed approximately as they do in the projections above, the Mariners will have a very good offense.

It gives a good idea of what the target performances are. Is that realistic? ...you're asking Adrian Beltre to bounce halfway back, and for one of the young talents (JLo, JuBet, Reed) to have a nice year.

Which, as we all know, is in fact what the M's need in order to score 770 runs in Safeco. A rebound by Beltre, and a good year by any one of the kids, and the offense will be effective.

Cheers,
Dr D




OPS

2005-12-27T02:39:13.470-08:00

Team OPS = Season Runs Scored?

Cameron noticed an interesting pattern that if a team's OPS is 750, that it will score about 750 runs in 162 games. If true, and it is probably loosely true, it makes teamwide analysis very simple.

Simplifying numbers is the concept behind Win Shares, for example -- it allows you to look at more macro issues.

Dr. D has used OPS+ constantly when scanning year-to-year team changes for macro patterns. I'll be interested in seeing how well this little device works out, when reviewing historical teams. Good stuff.

And good read at ussmariner.com.

=================================

Why does it work?...

... people ask? Is it magic?

Because OBP and SLG are the two halves of run-scoring. You're going to be able to move these two numbers around to create lots of RS stuff. If you have OBP and SLG, you've mostly got runs scored, because you're getting on base and then you're batting them around the bases.

Mat Olkin, 10 years ago, realized that OBPxSLGx31 is a great way to estimate ERA. ...the number 31 just happens to be the constant that converts OBP and SLG to the ERA scale -- like converting Fahrenheit to Celsius.

As it happens, OPS + SLG (x 100) estimates runs x 162 ... when you use the constant 162, which is the number of games in a year.

It so happens that when you add OBP and SLG, and multiply by 100, then 162 is the constant you divide by, to get probable runs in nine innings. It is a mathematical coincidence that "about 160" is the constant that converts one metric (OPS) into the scale of the other metric (RS), as well as being the constant that MLB owners picked as the games in a season.

That OBP and SLG generate runs is no coincidence; it's the nature of moving runners around. OPS *must* be closely related to runs scored.

The fact that ~160 is the right constant here, for converting OPS to the team-season-runs scale, that's a nice coincidence. The roundness of this constant is what USSM indirectly noticed. Good catch.

Cheers,
Dr D



POTD: Scott Boras

2005-12-26T15:46:32.826-08:00

So Boras pegs Millwood's value at 5/$60m ... and now it begins to look like Millwood might not even get the 4/$44m that the Seattle Mariners did in fact offer him.Much hooting and hollering by us M's fans at Boras' miscalculation, but Mariners Wheelhouse counters strongly with this fine analysis at SportSpot:I'm just not as anti-Boras as most folks here are.Boras' job is to represent his clients' interests, and he does that very well. No GMs are being forced against their will to sign contracts with Boras players - every deal Boras negotiates is a deal willingly entered into by the team. No player is forced take on Boras as his agent against his own will.From reports that I have seen, when Boras conducts contract negotiations, he is usually better prepared than the team he is negotiating with. His staff has completed an analysis of the team's financial position and available revenues, what the team's needs are, the team's available options to fill those needs, and the probable impacts of those options on the team's performance and profitability. Of course the team has done that also, but Boras' analysis is usually more detailed and more complete than are most team's analyses. Then he uses his salesmanship to spin the data in his clients' favor.Boras' organization also continually monitors his players while they are under contract, working with team staffs on conditioning programs, providing support services such as counseling, reviewing video and analyzing performance, and other matters to maintain and enhance his players' performance and value.Boras doesn't generate his edge because he is nefarious and evil. ...Boras is successful because he is better prepared, more organized, and harder working than amost every other agent and team. If you combine talent and brains with hard work, discipline, preparation, focus, and organization, you're going to be successful at what you do. It's really not Boras' fault if he is better at what he does than the guys with whom he is negotiating are at their jobs. Let's say that he does end up overshooting on Millwood this season; we chalk that up as a miscalculation by him. Even so, his overall record of successes and failures would far outstrip every other GM in baseball and every other player agent around.A lot of times we get angry with Boras simply for the fact that he is a very aggressive negotiator.On Millwood in particular, Boras' position had a lot of merit, that he might be worth more than Burnett. Peronsally don't blame him at all for pegging Millwood's eventual value at 5/$60m.Lost Words Dept.That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Wheels agreed with me that ... 'aggressive negotiators' can sometimes cross the line into the territory of greed.Greed is a word that has been made obsolete in America, at least as it applies to the underdog.Many sports commentators, including almost all of them at BP, apply "greed" to owners but never apply the word "greed" to a player or agent. To BP, a ballplayer cannot be too greedy. We recall one memorable diatribe in Alex Rodriguez' favor, "proving" that the margin between $210,000,000 and $252,000,000 might make a huge difference in his life. :-) "Who are we to tell him he can't have the extra $40m if he has plans for it?"This is a reflection of BP's liberal orientation towards always justifying the side in a dispute that has the least money. The liberal analysis is simple: It identifies the side that is less rich, less male, and less white, and notches every debate-point up in the favor of the "little guy's" side, in this case that being Kevin Millwood's side. It defends the poor, the female, and the minority position, regardless of ideology. The conservative mindset, by contrast, is not tethered to the side that is more white, or more male, or richer. A conservative is free to take the side of the player or the owner, the Japanese ballplayer or the American, the side of Condolezza Rice or of Alan Keyes, the side of Iraq or the USA or Afghanistan, depending on wh[...]



Winter Scoreboard: +120 runs so far !?!

2005-12-24T02:53:36.856-08:00

.The rule among journalists (don't say sportswriters) and baseball scouts (don't say bird dogs) is, that the most pessimistic assessment implies the most level head, the most objectivity, and the most accurate analysis. :-) No cheering in the press box, babe. So it falls to D-O-V to point out, much to its humiliation :-), that the 2006 Mariners have -- on paper -- already turned themselves into a 90-win team.No joke. Right now, they start the season today Seymour? ... on paper the M's are miles better than in 2005, and on paper are in fact one of the best teams in the AL.Remember, in 2005 they were -52 below .500, and here are +120 runs hard on the barrelhead..YAHTZEE, Dept.RF - 0LF - 0CF - 0 (?)1B - 02B - 0 (?)SS - 0 (?)3B - 0 (?)C - +30DH - 0#10 - +20SP1 - +40SP2 - +30SP3 - 0SP4 - 0SP5 - 0=====================SP1 is Felix for another 2/3 of a year, over Aaron Sele at 0 VORP.SP2 is Jarrod Washburn at a 4.25 Safeco ERA, over Gil Meche at a 5.09 Safeco ERA (plus Joel Pineiro cutting his ERA from 5.62 to 5.09).C is Johjima at .265/.330/.425 over last year's black hole.#10 is 350 PA's of Lawton over 2005 bench AB's like 1B-Bloomquist's (.249/.289/.333).Drive Home Safely, Everybody, Dept.And you have to be pretty stingy not to pencil improvements at SS, 2B, 3B, and/or CF. Figure those position for even 30 runs total between all four positions, and you have your theoretical +150 runs (and your +100 runs differential).No, that doesn't sound right to me, either. But there's the math, for your holiday reading info-tainment. :-)========================Crafty Lefthander Dept.Like Jamie Moyer handing out comfortable 0-for-4's, the Mariners' offseason has quietly been making progress without anybody figuring out what is going on. The M's have been wrapping nonstop quality MLB tourniquets where last year there were gaping wounds.It hasn't been exciting -- until you add up the cumulative effect. Like in a Moyer start, the other guys think they're having a good night, and they look up in the 7th and wonder what's going on....The Good, The Bad & The Ugly Dept.Zippity-do-dah, zippity-ay ... Lawton IS here as a 4th OF!? ... and that, gentlemen, makes Matt Lawton a major contributor to a potential pennant run.And the +20 runs hard on the barrelhead. Ka-ching!===================The bad: Mike Morse sunk without a bubble...===================But as to the ugly, riddle me this. You made $7,500,000 last year. You were an All-Star just the year before, 2004. Why in the world would you sign so quickly in the offseason, for so little, to play on the bench?!Lawton is a good solid .370-OBP platoon hitter. On Oct. 2, would you have thought such a screamin' deal possible? Did anybody here suggest a $400,000, .370-OBP platoon hitter for the bench?!Be Afraid,Dr D[...]



POTD: Matt Clement

2005-12-24T00:56:26.596-08:00

.Q: Would the Sox really deal him? A: Word is that the Red Sox have offered Matt Clement plus a valuable prospect for Jeremy Reed and a nominal prospect. The Red Sox are pushing on Clement-for-Reed, but the M's aren't too interested. With Papelbon and Lester ready, as well as Wade Miller and the usual suspects like Schilling, Arroyo, and Wakefield .... the Sox would like to clear $9m and get the kids in there..Q: Is Clement the TOR starter the M's need?A: Are the Seattle Seahawks a Super Bowl contender?All the pieces have been in place for Clement, but he has not delivered the results of a TOR starter. He's got the tools, he has the results in the micro sense (K, BB, HR), he has the experience, he's got the body and the arm, hey, he's got the goatee. But he has not been a TOR starter, yet..Q: What's the holdup here?A: To put it short and sweet, in Lou-speak: Clement keeps "spitting the bit."In 2004, for example, Clement threw great in the first half -- but then tanked so badly under pennant pressure that the Cubs yanked him from the rotation.In 2005, Clement again was brilliant in the first half (10-2 or something; All-Star selection) and then threw nervously down the stretch and was pounded. Including an embarrassing playoff loss against the White Sox, IIRC, in which he HIT the leadoff hitter and spun out of control from there.Is it that Clement is just wearing down in the second half? Or is he just not comfortable under pressure? D-O-V says it's both, but mostly that he is not comfortable under the pressure. Clement is fussy and fidgety during "game" rallies, seems uncertain and unsure of himself when the game is on the line, etc.Clement has a high "meltdown index" as Bill James would put it ... marginal BB rates, high HBP rates, high WP rates, etc.The diagnosis is simple. Clement is a very talented pitcher who does not like pressure. And that's coming from a Doc who is very, very slow to diagnose "makeup problems"..Q: Can he learn to pitch under pressure?A: I think most pitchers like Clement -- talented ones, that is -- DO learn to pitch under pressure, given time.Randy Johnson and Roger Clemens are notable examples of pitching stars who long held reputations for losing in the playoffs. The Big Unit was like 0-7 in the playoffs for awhile, IIRC; Clemens had similar travails, including a humiliating meltdown and ump-ejection against Dave Stewart early in his postseason career.But both backed the truck up, and revved the trailer at the ramp again, and conquered their gremlins, and even became great postseason pitchers.To win in the playoffs, most athletes need to have been there before. I expect Clement to pitch with poise in his very next attempt at it..Q: What does he throw?A: Strikeout slider, plus fastball, plus-plus sinker. He's a legit 7k a game guy.Unfortunately has not found the touch on his command at 31; his BB's are a little too high and at times his control totally frazzes out. In the 2nd half of 2004, for example, he walked 4.9 men per 9 innings..Q: Does he have a breakout, Cy Young season in him?A: The Boston Red Sox gave Clement a big contract assuming that he was going to break out in 2005. Which he did, in the first half...Clement's walk rate -- 3.5 to 4.0, with periods of 5.0+ -- is way too high for a pitcher who has gotten past 30. ...at any time, you would expect Clement to iron out the last wrinkles in his game, push the BB's under 3, and simply "break out."Except for the makeup, Matt Clement is the ideal Roto candidate for a bustout, 21-6, 3.25 season. That's not to say he will -- only that he has all the criteria you'd want for a breakout candidate..Q: Most-comparable pitcher?A: Freddy Garcia is comparable in a lot of ways.Clement's stuff has a bit more bite than Freddy's does nowadays, but they are big righties, enigmas with power stuff, untapped potential, and a seeming lack of focus. They occupy about the same place in the AL's pitching echelon.Freddy the last[...]



#10 Hitters

2005-12-23T13:56:41.840-08:00

.Overrated vs Underrated Dept.Coke - is overratedIce Water - is underratedSUVs - are overrated (just rented one)Ford sedans - are underrated (just bought one - 202,000 miles ago)Entertainment - is overrated (watching something, expensively)Recreation - is underrated (doing something, cheaply)BP - is overratedSportspot, Churchill, Bedir - are underratedCommuting - is overratedThe Bus - is underrated$50 seats - are overratedThe 3rd Deck - is underratedBill Bavasi's saber-orientation - was overrated (by Dr. D)Bill Bavasi's ability to calculate a chess variation six moves deep - is being underrated (by everybody)LAST Year's VORP - is overrated (and VORP is always last year's)Clubhouse chemistry - is underrated (just ask Pythag and the M's)95 mph fastballs - are overrated2.0 walk rates - are underratedThe M's roster today - is overrated (in its relevance)The M's remaining offseason ammo - is underratedClosers - are WAY overrated (free Eddie!)#10 hitters - are WAY underrated .Said All That To Say ThisCan anybody tell us, in one-syllable words so we can understand it ...... why teams spend $10,000,000 per season for "closers" who improve their team by, oh, 20-30 runs .... whereas they can spend $400,000 for a legit #10 bat who improves their team by, oh, 20-30 runs? Matt Lawton, if used as a #10 hitter as D-O-V says that he will be, improves the 2005 Mariners by +30 runs. Lawton in 300-400 AB's as a lefty will produce about +20 runs over a AAA player; the M's bench hitters in 2005 would clip the team for at least -10 runs over the same timeframe.That's about as much as Kenji Johjima improves them, about as much as B.J. Ryan would, about as much as Esteban Loaiza will improve the A's. And Lawton cost less than the bamboo "flute" that a Jamaican just sold my teenager when I wasn't looking. #10 hitters are underrated. And if Lawton is the #10 bat for 2006, he is precisely the #10 hitter that Dr. D has been clamoring for, since Mark McLemore. As the #10, he would be a huge piece of a championship puzzle.C'est la vie,Dr D [...]



POTD: Matt Lawton

2005-12-23T14:21:58.176-08:00

.By The Numbers, Dept..280/.380/.400/.780 - Mark McLemore's AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS in his glory 2001-2002 years in Seattle.273/.377/.428/.805 - Matt Lawton vs RHP, 2005.277/.372/.436/.808 - Lawton vs RHP, 2003-2005.268/.348/.466/.814 - Jacque Jones vs RHP, 2005.280/.333/.474/.807 - Jones vs RHP, 2003-2005801 - Career OPS, Raul Ibanez791 - OPS, Raul Ibanez, 2005Lawton - Who has had a higher OPS vs RHP, 2003-2005, Lawton or Jacque Jones ;-)$16m - Jones' contract$400k - Lawton's contractYes - Is Jones better with the glove than LawtonNo - Is corner OF defense worth $16 millionNo - Would Ozzie Smith's defense be worth $16 million145 - strikeouts, Lawton, vs RHP, last 3 years140 - walks, Lawton, vs RHP, last 3 yearsOBP - What is Matt Lawton's specialtyOBP - What do the Seattle Mariners need97 - runs per 650 plate appearances, Lawton, 2003-2005 (vs RHP)23.2 - VORP, Lawton, Pittsburgh (445 PA's)-10 - approximate VORP from #10 slot, M's, 2005Yes - Is it typical for a 34-year-old lefty to have trouble getting around on LHP'sNo - Does Matt Lawton project to have trouble with RHP's in 20061.6 - Lawton's groundball ratio (1.1 average)15-20 - Lawton's HR range in fulltime play16-20 - Raul Ibanez' HR totals, last 3 yearsYes - Is "topspin" hitting valuable in Safeco$400,000 - What is Lawton guaranteed for 2006Bench - Does $400k suggest that Lawton is scheduled to start.Now That's What I'm TALKIN' About, Dept.If platooned as a lefthanded hitter, Matt Lawton is comparable in value to Raul Ibanez. Lawton has less power (RBI), but more speed/OBP (R). Overall it's a wash.Again, if used as a 300-400 AB hitter in the 10 slot, Matt Lawton figures to add the Mark McLemore dimension to the 2006 Mariners -- a three-four-days-a-week sub who, instead of giving you an automatic out, gives you a plus hitter.Most managers like to use their bench to reinforce their leadership. If you have a Willie Bloomquist and a Greg Dobbs sitting next to you, your position as "Skip" is a little more secure.But for managers who are willing to reinforce their own leadership, the Earl Weaver / Lou Piniella type of manager -- if a ballclub is willing to put a legit bat in the 10 slot, it can smack down an extra 30 runs. Easy as pie.D-O-V has wanted a #10 bat since 2002. If Matt Lawton is it, he is as important an addition as would be a #3 starting pitcher.BABVA,Dr D[...]



D-O-V Mailbag: Corey Patterson

2005-12-23T15:19:33.606-08:00

You can toss letters, postcards, or ticking packages into the Mailbag via the Pos-I-Tronic Net (blue circle), if y'have y'r own question...Hey Doc,How ya been doin'? I havn't seen ya around the boards for a little while, so I figured you were probably getting ready for the holidays since it's just a few days away. (Traveling the last two weeks - Dr D)Anyways, I always hate to bother you about questions with the M's, lol, but you're always [cool about it]... so maybe you could help me out. (No bother, true dat, and prob'ly not ... heh!)And NO it's NOT about Griffey for ONCE, lol. Anyways, it's about Corey Patterson... there's been talks about Meche going to the Cubs for Corey Patterson... that is, of course if Jeremy Reed gets traded to the BoSox for either Aaroyo, or Clement. But the M's just signed Matt Lawton, who is hopefully going to be a bench player. So you've got Lawton, Everett, and Ibanez who can all play LF, or RF. Yet you could either stick with Reed or get Patterson who both play tremendous CF. So have you heard any truth to this rumor? and do you think by opening day we can see Mr.Patterson wearing a Mariners uniform? Thanks Doc,Have a great Christmas!- Bobby -.Take No Thought For The Morrow Dept.The M's idea is to shove the chips into the pot to improve the 2006 team, and to do that, the M's will consider moving their young blue-chippers (for whom they would prefer not to wait).M's indeed are looking at a variety of RLP center fielders, so as to free up Jeremy Reed who is, in fact, in high demand.... not at all unlikely that Patterson could wind up here; he's no worse than some of the names the M's have looked at, such as Brady Clark....At 25, it's wayyyyy too early to write off Corey Patterson with the stick, especially given his travails with the strike zone ...He is definitely not my first choice for center, but if Reed goes out in return for a true marquee player, remember that Patterson could be a wash for Reed offensively in the short term, and it's Adam Jones anyway in the long term...Look amigos. In 2001, the M's tried to control 2004, and they found out to their great sorrow that "sufficient unto the day was the evil thereof." There has been entirely too much Mariner hand-wringing about five years down the line. You cannot control five years from now; you can't even control today.Give it everything you got, now, right this minute. If the Mariners have suddenly gotten hip to the Billy Beane idea that you can only win NOW, I'm there, babe.Same applies to Jose Lopez. If you could (say) deal Lopez for Barry Zito ... well, Lopez' bright future, that's a shame, but the fact is, the 2006 ballclub just got a lot better. Prospects might or might not become 60-homer men, kiddies.Reed-for-ace, Patterson to fill CF, then Adam Jones? I do it in a heartbeat. Hang the 2009 season in which Reed gets eight votes for the All-Star team.Cheers,Dr D[...]



Quick view from a 'net cafe :-)

2005-12-21T22:01:57.830-08:00

Carl "Blackheart" EverettI guess what a lot of us are saying is why on earth would we pro-rate his stats upward (for more games played) in his age 35-36 seasons?1) 'cuz if he knocks in 23 and 87 in 135 games, you also add the production from whichever player takes the other 27 games.23 HR and 87 RBI in 135 games is better than 23 HR and 87 RBI in 155 games. ;-)I'm not saying he'll get better: I'm saying, notice that 23/87 in 135 is nothing to sneeze at. And he goes to a park that favors him.===========2) I don't look for Everett to collapse at his age because when in doubt, I like the extra-talented players. It would be *overachievers,* such as Raul Ibanez, that I would worry about age-declines the most with.Again, I'm not saying Everett was my choice. I'm just saying you are talking about Carl bloomin' Everett, here. C'mon. Let's not make him out to be Willie Bloomquist.To me, Everett actually underperformed his career-arc in 2005. For a guy who slugged nearly .600 at his peak, to be down to .435 in his early '30's, that suggests a "soft" level of performance, with upside.If we weren't so emotional about Everett, we wouldn't be projecting his performance so harshly.==========3) Your question (above) does change tack, at least... you're going from "he's useless" to "he will get worse and then be useless." :-)That's progress :-)Jarrod "Worst SP In The League" WashburnQuestion came up about Washburn finishing in the bottom five among qualifying SP's in fielding-independent ERA?A1) As a minor opening quibble, note that this makes him 40th, or something -- or a #3-4 SP if you divide by 14 teams. Any stat by which only 45 AL starters qualify, automatically amputates the worst 30% of the pitchers in the league off the bottom of the list. So don't make too much about "bottom five."=====================A2) Washburn's xERA, and translated ERA, and actual ERA, were all excellent.What a poor "fielding-independent ERA" is emphasizing, is simply that Washburn puts the ball in play a lot.The sabermetrician leaps from this fact -- that Washburn keeps the ball in play -- to a false conclusion -- that the Seattle Mariners should have obtained a theoretically excellent pitcher.There is a difference between seeking a pitcher who is, theoretically, the best pitcher in a neutral context -- and a pitcher who is, on the green grass of the Big A or Safeco, a 3.75 pitcher.Sabermetricians swing the pendulum a little too far here, and deny pitchers "credit" for exploiting their contexts. To sabermetricians, if a pitcher matches up with his conditions and wins a bunch of games, it doesn't count.Consider Bill James' quote on it: "In adjusting for park contexts, we must be careful not to edit wins and losses out of existence. If Wade Boggs has an actual ability to dump doubles off the Green Monster, then actual wins and losses will result from that ability."Jarrod Washburn doesn't walk anybody, and doesn't give up many HR's, and in a good park with a good defense he will be an above-average starter, period. The sabermetrician wishes to deny Washburn "credit" for what his defense does, but the real GM is one step ahead of him. The GM skips forward past the theoretical and asks, "how will THIS pitcher do in THESE conditions?"=====================3. The difference between Washburn and Moyer and Franklin is that Moyer's and Franklin's low K rates lead to precarious HR rates.Washburn, unusually, has proven beyond any doubt that he can maintain low HR rates despite low K rates -- so for him, the low K rates become much less meaningful.Safeco will only reinforce Washburn's HR-prevention ability.======================4. The REASON that Washburn can allow tons of contact, without tons of HR's?Who knows. We have heard only one expert theory on it, that being Inside Pitch's. "Washburn has a weird little hitch in his fas[...]



This 'N That

2005-12-19T22:09:28.806-08:00

Context.Matters.Always has.Always will.Most 'net folks who read anything I write (thanks to both of you by the way), know that context is like a sermon on Easter for me. You almost always know what you're going to hear. At least you know there is going to be some sort of reference to the word.So What's Your Point Padna? I Ain't Got The Time To Read Your Snippets AND Doc's Novels Too!What does "Crazy" "Jurassic" "Intolerant" "Child Abusing" Carl Everett bring to the Mariners? Without agreeing with any of those labels, Padna's position is that Everett will bring both pizazz and punch. What I will not do is the number crunching that has been going on ad nauseum trying to illustrate that "Randy Winn gave you x VORP per $ while Everett gives you x minus some fraction VORP per $, so why are the M's doing this?" This is not an Everett versus Winn comp in the first place, since Winn has already been translated into Foppert, Carvajal, and Gonzales. Are the M's in a better position now having translated Winn and signed Everett. I think the answer is obvious. While it's possible that none of the arms will pan out (that's always possible as we've found out), I'd much rather be in the position now of having the guys they have than how it looked even six months ago. Clubhouse fire and more long balls address two of the M's primary needs.So Why Washburn and Not Millwood?Instead of answering myself that question, it's important to note two things:The first, of course, is that we don't even know whether the premise of the question is even valid. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever that the M's could not sign Millwood if they wanted him, provided he was okay with coming here. But I'm not going to rehash the budget issues now. We can do that in July when we need three months of future FA."Either your signature or your brains will be on that contract tomorrow. The choice is yours."The second is that last I heard, extortion was still illegal. There's no guarantee that Millwood even wants to come here. It sure has been curiously quiet......Context.....uh....Dep'tWhat happens if the top targets do not want to come here? What does the org do? You've just had two seasons bad enough to have your fanbase erode to the point of threatening all that you've built. You cannot simply say, get younger and develop your kids in the business environment that exists now. Granted, the M's put themselves in the position they're in. But they do not have the luxury of not including a plan to make immediate improvements. If that means paying the going market rate for Civic instead of star, then so be it.The whole point of stars and scrubs is that you don't buy the Civic because you're averse to the Lexus. You buy a Civic when the Lexus is not available and you have a business reason to do so. This is a perfectly good time to invest in that Civic. It's not like you've got a Roy Oswalt who wants to come here and you're chiseling him. You can't wait on Boras and get left without a chair when the music stops.Signing Washburn now does two things.1. It puts a strong lefty starter at Safeco, which we all know is a pretty good thing.2. It maintains a decisive tone with an agent like Boras that "if you want the best deal, take my deal now or we need to move to our next plan." That kind of tone will bode well for future negotiations. Which, of course, there will be. BB always needs to keep that in mind.[...]



Johjima's 1.5MB Stream (Tape of his swing etc.)

2005-12-19T09:25:06.883-08:00

Background: IT company SoftBank and Yahoo Japan just announced a new company called TV-Bank. TV-Bank is a company now in beta stage to transfer TV and movie contents over internet.
------------------
And as I searched at TV-Bank they had a tape about Johjima!!!
(Johjima played for SoftBank Hawks)
Go to the title link.
There are 3 yellow squares with Japanese kanji to click. Click the bottom left one. You will get a 1.5MB stream of Johjima.
(Some seconds of commercials first)
Perhaps this service is only available to Japanese residents.
If so you must go with a Japanese proxy.
I don't know about Japanese proxies.
Anyway try.
Hope this information was worth a blog.
----------------
Inka-Wolfy reports that this site is only accept Japanese IPs.
So a proxy is a must.



D-O-V's Pitcher Evaluation Algorithm

2005-12-23T13:51:36.790-08:00

But Mom Always Made A Great Ham, Dept.Story goes about the bride who prepared a nice dinner for her new husband. She set down the ham and scalloped potatoes, and laid aside a bowl of minced ham for the morning's omelettes."Looks great, poofster," says the groom. "But why did you cut the ends off the ham?""That's the way you cook a ham, pouska," says she."Why's that?," says he."Don't ask questions about things you don't understand, pouska," replies she, sweetly but with a certain sandpapery tone.Next morning, Mr. goes off to work, and honeybunny races to the phone. "Mom! Why did you always cut the ends off the ham when you cooked it?"Mom stops, and doesn't really know why ... "You know, your Grandma taught me that," says Muds, "but I never really asked why."So Mudsy hangs up, and calls Gramma. "Mom, why did you always cut the ends off the ham?"Grams laughs. "I used to, sweetheart," says she. "But now they are making the pans larger."In The Land Of Blog Dept.... we use a lot of fancy formulas to evaluate pitching: xERA, DIPS, FIP, xFIP, PERA, BPV, STP, CIA ... the fancier they get the more we like them.Have you ever actually looked up the formulas behind those acronyms though? They all do the same thing: they take a pitcher's K's, BB's, and HR's ... and then they start threshing them like wheat in a combine tractor.One guy wants to normalize the HR's by flyball rate. Another guy wants to normalize for defense. Some other guy wants to give bonus points for Sunday-only starting. You can get any kind of light or dark bread you care to order.But they all start with the same rice, corn and wheat: they all start by assuming K, BB, and HR define a pitcher's skill.And in doing so, they make too much stew out of one oyster.PERA and FIP create impressively precise ERA's. But have you ever noticed this? ...Lotta NOISE In Those HR Rates, Dept.Consider that Carl Pavano's (translated) HR rate was 1.4 last season, and 0.6 the year before. Do you know of any pitchers who struck out 7.0 batters per game in 2005, but only 3.0 the year before? No, because strikeout rate and walk rates persist well, but HR rates generally don't!Jamie Moyer's HR rates the last four years: 1.0, 1.5, 0.7, 1.0. Do you know of any pitchers whose K rates the last four years were 5.0, 7.3, 3.5, and 5.0?Derek Lowe's HR rates last year: 1.1. The year before: half that, 0.6. Know any pitchers who stayed healthy, but whose K rates doubled, or were cut by 50%, last year?Qwibbles & Bits, Dept.Now, for some guys, HR rate is more consistent than that. But the fact remains! HR rate swings by 25% either way, based merely on a few balls blown foul or not.And then we take the luck-based HR rate, and try to build a PERA formula that shows great precision.Yes, we know some formulas try to extrapolate HR rate from simple flyball rate. That's assuming too much also.If you use a duller meat cleaver, yes there ARE four kinds of pitchers, in terms of mistake avoidance:1) Low-HR pitchers (AJ Burnett)2) Normal-HR pitchers (most of them, such as Jarrod Washburn)3) Gopheritis guys (Ryan Franklin)4) Guys who are very erratic (Jamie Moyer fighting age; unhealthy pitchers)Cut Out The Middleman Dept.So if xERA is a filet knife that is based on such sloppy, tinfoil material (HR rate), why not just cut out the middleman?What if you used K/BB ratio directly, and skipped all the xERA formulas? How well would that work?Bill James "The Heart Of Baseball Is The Strike Zone" Dept.Here are the top AL starters, 60 or more IP, with a 2.5 or better control ratio, except for HOF'ers Schilling and Kevin Brown.ERA is in the left column, for your viewing pleasure:ERA CTL SP3.44 7.89 C. Silva (Min - SP)2.41 5.40 R. Halladay (Tor - SP)2.87 5.29 Jo. Santana (Min - SP)4.45 5.10 D. Wells (Bo[...]



Intensity In Ten Cities, Dept.

2005-12-17T20:27:28.306-08:00

One thing that's kind of funny, and kind of nice, is that the blog-o-sphere isn't picking up rocks (behind the one or two ringleaders) to media-lynch Everett as a worthless human being.But the odd flip side to that coin is that the blog-o-sphere, in general, is worrying that Everett has nothing left in the tank. That part of it is mystifying.Everett:1) Was a bona fide MVP-level player at his peak (and being far more gifted than, say, Raul Ibanez, tends to a later decline)2) Hit 23 HR's last year3) Hit about 6-8 additional doubles in Chicago that woulda been out of Safeco (=30 HR) and is a dead pull LH hitter4) Has been playing dinged upEverett is kind of in the Griffey, Nomar class. Always take the mega-gifted athlete to surprise high, rather than the Ibanez-, Aurilia-style overachievers.Honestly, whoever Everett was playing for, if they had a friendly RF, I'd figure him for around 25-30 bombs and they will be big ones.Everett is approximately a lateral move from Randy Winn and Jacque Jones, offensively, though with a louder bat. And no matter what the saberdweebs tell you, Everett will bring a lot more LH presence to the M's lineup than did winn..Chemistry 101No jokes about Phillips, please... :-)But note this carefully. Sabermetricians, if they had been around in 1994 like they are now, would have graded Bill Bavasi's 1994-1995 offseason an F. ...and yet the reality was, he had turned a .400 team into a dominating one!Sabermetricians are absolutely colorblind to factors like those presented by Tony Phillips. And that is why every year, year after year, there are at least three teams that perform 20-30 games differently than expected -- like the 2001 and 2004 Mariners -- and sabermetricians shrug and say, "it's just one of those things." ...what it actually is, is a manifestation of the huge part of baseball that we don't understand.Though a (roughly) lateral move offensively, there's little doubt that Bill Bavasi does see Carl Everett as the Mariners' version of Tony Phillips.And I don't know how you disagree with him about that. Did the 2005 Mariners not need a Tony Phillips? ...and who else would you have gotten to fill the role?BABVA,Dr D[...]



POTD: JARROD WASHBURN

2005-12-17T15:44:14.943-08:00

Aloha from Jamaica-mon and G'die from the Louvre. Or something. My wife will let me know where we are when she comes and kicks my 'net-cafe chair over. Garcon, another doppio. Only got a half hour to see if there are any baseball fans left in Seattle (or who frequent Vission de Detectair) anymore.Q: Quick, Doc, what's the good news?!A: ::winning smile:: VERY few people get the disease named after them!And the therapy qualifies as experimental, so we'll pick up the tab on that too. Everything's coming up gold..Q: If you even try to reverse your field on the WashBURN signing now, we are prepared to pitch-and-flame your castle...A: ::see smile at top left of homepage:: I'm always open to new experiences, provided they're righteous. An unruly mob can't be any better or worse than Jarrod Washburn for 4/$36m or an hour of Dodgeball with cheaters in 95% humidity.The fact that the Mariners are willing to give this contract to Jarrod Washburn, and UNwilling to give Kevin Millwood ONE MORE STEENKING YEAR? That, in one move, sums up everything that Silentpadna and I have been crying and moaning about for four bloomin' years.Washburn-for-4 over Millwood-for-5 absolutely sums up the Mariner business organization, and it sums up the root cause of their wussiness on the field.Sorry. Can't dance around the question. When the generals have no mojo, the troops won't either.And as you and I know, bulldogging the calf in a half-hearted way is the very FASTEST way to go to the hospital (or to 96-loss City). The Mariners' very cowardice is precisely what makes their worst nightmares come true.In this case, that nightmare is the fact that they are one of the worst 5 teams in baseball, and the only one of the bottom 5 that is rich. Lincoln and Armstrong are turning in Tampa Bay results with $90m payrolls. Their refusal to give Kevin Millwood the 5th year is one more swing-and-miss that keeps them there..Q: You still think the Mariners will contend in 06?A: They could, yes. ... The M's start at -52 runs ....Felix +40, Johjima +20-40, Everett =, Washburn +30 ... That's about +100 runs. ... then there are the improvements from the young kids, further trades, etc.On paper, the difference between Washburn and Millwood is probably only about 20 runs or so. It's not the 2006 dealbreaker..Q: Are you trying to say Washburn will be effective in 2006?! A: Washburn has never been anything but effective.He'll be very effective again in 2006. He'll probably be in the top 25 in the league in ERA. I'll have him about #20 on my AL SP draft list.His K's are marginal and he's tricking people, BUT:1) His BB rates, the last 5 years, have ranged from 2.1 to 2.5.2) His HR rates, the last 5 years, have ranged from 0.8 to 1.2.3) His translated ERA's, the last 5 years, have ranged from 3.18 to 4.01.Here, get a load of Washburn's translated ERA's. They have been, and remain, as good as Kevin Millwood's:2000 - 3.382001 - 3.522002 - 3.182003 - 3.862004 - 4.012005 - 3.48Career - 3.62And his on-field ERA is 3.93 for his career..Q: On further review, you think Washburn is a good pitcher?A: He is, yes. Having heard what Inside Pitch has to say on it, and suddenly realizing that Washburn is a card-carrying member of the Tommy John Family of Pitchers, and realizing that his K's have been down since 2003, while he has maintained low HR's and low XERA's ...Yes, you have to admit that Washburn is a solid #3 starting pitcher, a 15-game winner on a good team.That's why the M's had to pay $36m -- because other MLB teams saw that also.Q: Why are his skills so predictable year-to-year?A: Because he's a gamer, because his fastball moves (as Pitch pointed out), and because he's a graceful lefty with consistent me[...]



+150 Runs Scoreboard

2005-12-17T15:13:15.256-08:00

DELTA, Free Agent Dept.The 2005 Mariners were -52 runs below .500 (699 for, 751 agin'.)As always, +100 runs above .500 would be plenty to have you in the fight for the World Series. The Yankees were +97 runs, Boston +103, Chicago +97, LA was +115, Oakland +109.Here y'go, amig-O.+40 Felix+30 Washburn (assumes 4.25 ERA)+30 Johjima (assumes lukewarm year)+00 Everett (assumes league-average bat)The M's have added +100 runs so far to their 2005 team. On paper..DELTA, Returning Player Dept.Check the other possible ways the M's might pick up a run or ten, beyond the Big Five:+20 Everett if he has a healthy, up, park-aided year+10 Adrian Beltre if he returns to a +26 VORP player (was +16 in 2005; was+70 in 2004)+10 Adrian Beltre if he returns to a +36 VORP player+10 Adrian Beltre if he returns to a +46 VORP player+10 Jose Lopez if he is a mediocre +15 VORP player like the '05 Beltre (Boone +5 VORP this year)+10 Jose Lopez if he is a +25 VORP player (Robinson Cano +28 at .296/.316/.457)+10 Yuniesky Betancourt if he hits for +10 VORP ... vs the 0.0 VORP of Valdez-Bloomquist-Betancourt+10 Yuniesky Betancourt if he hits for +20 VORP+10 Jeremy Reed if he posts a measly +15.7 VORP+10 Jeremy Reed if he has a Randy Winn year +25 VORP+20 Jo-El Pineiro if he has as good a year as Jamie Moyer 2005 (vs. the 13 VORP assumed above)+10-30 Marcos Carvajal /Clint Nageotte/Jesse Foppert if the M's get a pitching surprise+10 George Sherrill over, say, Matt Thornton+10 Mike Morse and the rest of the bench, compared to 2004's benchIf the Mariners did ALL of the above, they would gain +270 runs and win about 110 games. The above are possibilities for improvement. The M's need 1/3 or 1/2 of them to happen -- net -- in order to be one of the best teams in the league..2005 RUNS OVER AAA LEVEL+45 Ichiro+ 5 Reed+40 Ibanez+56 Sexson+15 Beltre+15 Winn (later -1 Dobbs and +12 Morse)+ 4 Boone (later +1 Lopez; negative first trip, positive second trip)-13 Olivo (later -7 Borders and +0 Torrealba)-08 Valdez (later +3 Betancourt)+30 Moyer+13 Franklin+ 4 Jo-El+ 0 Meche- 1 Sele (2/3 season), later +29 Felix (1/3 season)[...]



Tony Phillips 1995

2005-12-17T20:28:52.600-08:00

In 1994, Bill Bavasi's Anaheim Angels were -21 below .500 ... in a strike-shortened season.For 1995, he brought in the scary-tempered, controversial Tony Phillips -- and the Angels ran away with the division (until the M's miracle). Mariners Wheelhouse points out the parallel to Carl Everett at the usual hangout (SportSpot): Da SpotBavasi comments on Phillips:Q: So was his intensity somewhat contagious?He is THE single most influential and best player I’ve been around... What put getting Phillips over the edge for us was Matt Keough who played with him said, “I guarantee he will made Jim Edmonds and J.T. Snow and other guys better players. He will absolutely influence them and drive them hard”. That put it over the edge for me. There was a time during that year Tony had something like seven cortisone shots in his hamstring just to stay on the field. And he was driving Edmonds…you can look at Edmonds’ career, that was the big jump. J.T. Snow didn’t always over-perform that year but Tony would go into the training room and flush any player out, get them out on the field, and say, "what are you doing in here"…we’re playing today, you are playing. That was the big jump (for the team). Tony has had his struggles in different parts of his life, but this guy made me think I could be a GM because of the way we played that year. That was our first significant trade…more nerve wracking than a free agent signing. Tony absolutely made that deal work. I’d give a bunch of players for one of those guys. .Don' Mess Wif MY Money, Bro', Dept.The 2004-2005 Sonics improved by 89 games, or something, based on exactly two significant additions:1) They added a backup point guard.2) They added a big inner-city guy with a scary temper who didn't like playing with pantywaists.==========What Were You THINKING, Bill?, Dept.Bill told us what he was thinking, but we waved him off, because he didn't tell us what we were thinking.He told us that Carl Everett would be a credible threat from the left side (which he will), and that he would make the players around him better (which he will).We have proceeded to analyze eighty-five kinds of statisticial trees, and lost sight of two simple forests: 1) Carl Everett will hit 25+ homers at Safeco, and2) Carl Everett will restore a Lou Piniella presence to the dugout..Eight Key Decisions Dept.Bill James stated that Theo Epstein's year would turn out well based on a critical 8-to-10 decisions each year. This year, for Bavasi, those included:1. Johjima2. Easy Eddie3. The #2 SP4. The #3 SP5. The LF6. WHAT TO DO ABOUT THE WUSSY TEAM PERSONALITYAmigos asked Dr. D all the time: "If we get Millwood and Burnett, does that make us a 90-win team?"I said, all the time, "on paper, yes, but with this team you never know. There is a huge, overarching negative: the team plays gutless. It underperforms. It is always -6 under Pythag and that is no accident."The Mariners could have made EVERY roster move perfectly, and been torpedoed by the overarching negative that they are not in it to win it -- that they play soft. Bavasi's decision about what to do about the team character, sez Padna and I, matter more than every other offseason decision put together..Everett Is The Hammer To That NailMost saberdweebs believe in leadership like they believe in Santa Claus.But most saberdweebs watch sports from behind computer monitors and horn-rimmed glasses. (We mean that in a good way). Most saberdweebs have never been in an important sports tournament. Most saberdweebs have never had a very large inner-city brother go haywire and get in their face, on the bench, after they have screwed up. [...]



Second fiddle

2005-12-17T11:23:27.400-08:00

(image)
Washburn is one of the oldest guitar makers in America, but the Fender Strat's, Gibson Les Paul 's, and Rickenbacker's are build elsewhere.
Apparently, the M's got tired of playing second fiddle and air guitar in the free agent market and got their own real one, a Washburn model named "Jarrod". The price is steep and they intend to play with it for 4 years. It maybe a solid guitar with a great, soft sound but it surely isn't the Riffmaster we all hoped for. Joe Satriani would have spent the money elsewhere.
I don't know if Washburn owns a Washburn or if he knows how to play at all. He is a good pitcher, with the 4th best ERA in the AL last year. He is very familiar with the AL West and Safeco. But he won more than 11 games only once in his career which got him a ring. He is not the ace everyone was hoping for. He is not the second part of the 1-2 punch (with Felix) at the top of our rotation.
Steve Kelly from the Times puts him nicely in perspective (title link). I believe it takes more than a Washburn to get back near the top of the Billboard charts, not to mention a number one hit.



back in the doghouse temporarily

2005-12-15T08:27:59.353-08:00

(image)
our new home at http://detectovision.com starts off like Tom Hanks' "Money Pit". After the staircase broke down, getting stuck in a hole in the floor and a collapsed scaffolding while covered in white paint, I had to call in the contractors. The good news is it will take up only 48 hours max. to repair.
Until then, we moved back temporarily to our old and cozy little doghouse. Comments are turned on, so fire away.

Edit to add: I forgot to mention the episode with the fountain in the garden....


Inka




Lukewarm Stove

2005-12-15T08:09:35.913-08:00

The winter meetings are over and it seems that most GM's and player agents are using the opportunity to get their Christmas shopping done. The hot stove has cooled down to a modest lukewarm, even the rumor mill is grinding as slow as my grandma's. The good doc picked the right time for his vacation on Richard Branson's private island, leaving us behind with not much to report. Perhaps he will bring us a few leftover boxes of Veuve Clicquot's finest, coinciding with the M's signing of Millwood. One can only hope.Rumor has it, Jarrod Washburn received a 4/40 offer from the Nats. To put it in one perspective, it would match Pavano's contract numbers from last year who at the time was considered as the third best pitcher on the FA list after Clemens and Pedro. A list in 2004 that included Matt Clement, Odalis Perez, Jaret Wright, Brad Radke, Russ Ortiz, Matt Morris, Eric Milton, Jon Lieber, David Wells, Derek Lowe, Kevin Millwood, Esteban Loaiza, Orlando Hernandez, Paul Wilson, Paul Byrd and Steve Kline. Many of those pitchers ended up as a complete bust. The guys in italics, who decided to sign one year deals are looking like geniuses today, if you compare it to Pedro's contract, a 4 year/$53 mil deal. What a difference a year makes!Another rumor says that the Red Sox and Mariners are talking about a deal that would involve Matt Clement and Jeremy Reed, if Damon goes elsewhere. Perhaps Ichiro is headed for centerfield after all 'til Adam Jones is ready?? Who knows....Gem'sGum'sGym'sMg'sFm'sEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionarylukewarmEdit...Revert to "luke warm"Bran son'sBran-son'sBronson'sBrandon'sBrannon'sEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryVerveWe'veWeaveVivieWiveEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryClique'sAliquotsClout'sCalcutta'sCalico'sEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryMill woodMill-woodMellowedEllwoodMilledEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryWash burnWash-burnWishboneWashbasinWashboardEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryNa tsNa-tsNat'sAntsNataEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryPavanoPaving'sPacino'sPaean'sParvenu'sEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryDalisIdealiseIdealsOrdealsIdaliaEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryJarretJaredCaretJarrettGarretEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryRakeRetakeRakedReadeTakeEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryLibberLobberLubberLimberLiederEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryMill woodMill-woodMellowedEllwoodMilledEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryLizaLouisaLazarLoisLizEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionarySixSocSaxSexCoxEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionaryOchreCharoItchierCheriAchierEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionarycenter fieldcenter-fieldcenterfoldcentrefoldcenterfoldsEdit...Ignore allAdd to dictionary[...]



Oh, what's up?

2005-12-10T18:02:01.190-08:00

I take that last post as an invite to run around naked... so to speak... anyway, here goes.The WBC Japan Team roster was announced yesterday. If you haven't seen it yet, here it is -- 29 and counting on Hideki Matsui to make it 30. As soon as Hideki meets with whatever astrologist he needs to consult, or whatever....Pitchers:Naoyuki Shimizu, CLMShunsuke Watanabe, CLMHiroyuki Kobayashi, CLMTsuyoshi Wada, FSHToshiya Sugiuchi, FSHDaisuke Matsuzaka, SLKoji Uehara, YGHiroki Kuroda, HCSoichi Fujita, CLMYasuhiko Yabuta, CLMKyuji Fujikawa, HTHirotoshi Ishii, YS Akinori Otsuka, San Diego PadresCatchers:Tomoya Satozaki, CLMMotonobu Tanishige, CDShinnosuke Abe, YGInfielders:Tsuyoshi Nishioka, CLMToshiaki Imae, CLMNobuhiko Matsunaka, FSHMunenori Kawasaki, FSHMichihiro Ogasawara, NHFAkinori Iwamura, YSTakahiro Arai, HC Tadahito Iguchi, Chicago White SoxOutfielders:Kazuhiro Wada, SLTatsuhiko Kinjo, YBSHitoshi Tamura, YBSNorichika Aoki, YS Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle MarinersJust one question: What's with the "BayStars dominated outfield"?Tatsuhiko Kinjo (.324/.361/.439 - 12HR, 87RBI)Hitoshi Tamura (.304/.369/.578 - 31HR, 79RBI)Oh-kantoku says:''The players on this roster were chosen on the basis of their performances this past season,'' Oh said. ''And I also picked players who help us play the Japanese style of baseball -- like (submarine right-hander) Shunsuke Watanabe, whose pitching mechanics are not familiar to our opponents.''Weren't these guys sitting at the front of the class (based on their performances this past season), waving their hands, shouting "Oh, oh, pick me!"?Kosuke Fukudome (.328/.430/.590 - 28HR, 102RBI)Tomoaki Kanemoto (.327/.429/.615 - 40HR, 125RBI)Maybe they had respectfully declined an invitation. I don't remember hearing about it.Anyway, I never meant to write a "snubs piece" -- they're cliche... you know, all those "All-Star Snubs" articles that come out after the votes are in.Chiba Lotte Marines players make up nearly 1/3 of the team (eight of 29, so far), this may be Oh's way of getting rid of the competition in the Pacific League.Nah, I'm just playing.Anyway, no Toyoda. No Miura, nor teammate Kadokura, etc, etc....So, what?Here's a projected lineup for a game one, say:1 RF Ichiro (Seattle Mariners)2 2B Iguchi (Chicago White Sox)3 DH Matsunaka (Fukuoka Softbank Hawks)4 CF Matsui (New York Yankees)5 LF Wada (Seibu Lions)6 1B Ogasawara (Nippon Ham Fighters)7 3B Iwamura (Yakult Swallows)8 C Tanishige (Chunichi Dragons)9 SS Nishioka (Chiba Lotte Marines)SP Watanabe (Chiba Lotte Marines)Should be fun to watch all the same.Edit to add:For those interested, please click away:mb7.scout.com/fbaseballfrm42Sorted by PA for now. Differences among leagues the major caveat.K:BB ratios 2005Player PA K:BBIchiro Suzuki 739 66:48Tomoaki Kanemoto 662 86:98Norichika Aoki 649 113:37Tatsuhiko Kinjo 642 63:32Akinori Iwamura 618 146:63Kosuke Fukudome 612 128:93Takahiro Arai 587 126:37Tadahito Iguchi 581 114:47Michihiro Ogasawara 580 114:61Nobuhiko Matsunaka 575 85:76Kazuhiro Wada 542 66:60Toshiaki Imae 509 62:22Hitoshi Tamura 499 108:43Tsuyoshi Nishioka 493 51:31Munenori Kawasaki 458 52:26[...]



Out To Lunch

2005-12-09T22:08:18.856-08:00

.
Hold The Applause Dept.


(image)
.
Dr D and all the mini-Dr D's be gone for a spell ...

Jammin' with the volume up to 11:

Inka-Wolfy on the electric HTML keyboard and the Daily News synthesizer

Dr Naka grindin' lead NPB axe with garstar duelin' along

Silentpadna holdin' down the bottom end on his Ditto-Bass

Mikey Jay blowin' sax on the occasional Aubrey Huff POTD

And the usual gang of suspects ...

If it's too much of a SCUD for SportSpot, I guess you can fire from this Turkish airbase ;-) but Inka-Wolfy will cheerfully nuke anything that displeases him and gets a salary bonus for each comment snuffed ... rumor has it that Inka-Wolfy has an even hotter carburetor in mind for D-O-V.


Keep da faith,
Dr D




mini-POTD: Marcos Carvajal

2005-12-09T18:11:03.060-08:00

.g-moneyball on Luis GonzalezThe second player in the Torrealba deal is a 6' lefty reported to have a 90-92 fastball, average slider and change. He made the AA All-Star team in 2005.Catch g-money at World's Greatest Sports Chat*can't stop laughing*Man do we just keep piling on the Rockies.Luis is another Dodgers boy - much like Carvajal was before last year. Bavasi is stealing every interesting piece he can from his old team because the Dodgers may not know what they have in the system as well as Billy probably does, as he used to oversee their farm system.Luis is about to turn 23 and just reached the highest level of the minors. In AA last year before the All-Star Break (yes, he made the All-Star Game) he was 6-1 with a 1.91 ERA. He pretty much kept his team's bullpen afloat single-handedly.He's wild as all get-out and his Ks fluctuate all over the place, but he's got a ton of potential and is one of those guys you call "a gamer." The Dodgers have too much talent on that team to protect everybody, so the Rox drafted this guy for us and then traded him to us.If he works out, fine, if not we can send him back to the Rockies or Dodgers. The Twins drafted Ryan Rowland-Smith from us in last year's Rule 5 but sent him back in ST when it wasn't working out.This is us taking an absolute steal from the Rox in Carvajal and then being completely greedy and taking a no-risk flier on a talented but inconsistent minor-leaguer as a 2nd addition..Um, Yeah, We Can See Why You Wanted A Sweetener With This GuyCarvajal is 6'4", 175, super-slender with a whiplike pitcher's body, is from Felix Hernandez' home country, Venezuela, and in 2005 he became the youngest pitcher ever to appear for the Rockies -- only a year older than Felix at his own debut.Carvajal pitched very well in the NL at 20, against good solid competition, though few people seem to have found this notable. LOL.All reports agree that he throws a legit 92-96 with a hard slider and an effective changeup..Baseball Prospectus 2005Dominated the Sally League with very live stuff at the age of 19. He'll start the year at high-A, but he's got a long way to go, especially as he battles the injury concerns so prevalent with precocious arms (they mean, just generally with young flamethrowers - DrD). He throws hard, which is why the Brewers picked him up in the Rule V Draft, and sold him to the Rockies. So you might well get a chance to see him doing mop-up duties at Coors Field (at 20 - DrD). And with the Rockies, that could be 350 innings of work.Dr. D on the 2005 Translated StatsAt the age of 20, Carvajal's Rockie performance -- his MAJOR league peripherals -- were, translated:8.3 k3.0 bb1.0 hrIf Carvajal did that for 200 innings as a starter, he would be one of the ten best pitchers in the league, of course. ...He did it for 53 innings in relief, with the Rockies, which is still a closer-worthy season, if you normalize it.Wow. Twenty years old. Who is this guy?.John Erhardt, August 2005Free pitchers are good. Free pitchers who rank fourth on your team in VORP are even better. Marcos Carvajal came from the Dodgers (via the Brewers) in last winter's Rule V draft (yes, Erhardt put in Rule V inadvertently, so feel free to charge him with "not knowing what he's talking about" - DrD).Scouting reports weren't terribly optimistic about him, as he'd thrown just 3 innings higher than low-A ball before this season. (Say WHAT?! At 19 he's behind the curve if he isn't in AA?!- Dr D)He's made the jump nice[...]



Texas Two-Steps Dept.

2005-12-09T18:00:27.173-08:00

.Here 'n There1) It turns out that the take on A.J. Burnett was spot on. Burnett wanted St. Louis badly, but the Cards dug in on the 5th year, and blew the deal. So, Toronto has the "Be Afraid" rotation for October.It doesn't matter who signs who, whether the Tigers step in front of a Kenny Rogers bus and get pancaked, or who's left to bid. It is 5 years for Millwood for find a different SP, amigos.Y'understand, Boras takes these trophy contracts back to the next crop of FA's and says, "look, I got Millwood 5 years.".2) The Seattle Mariners did call on Barry Zito, but Beane wants an MLB-ready starter (at least Carvajal-level, ahem), a serious bat in Austin Kearns territory, plus a Grade A prospect. Nada..3) The Red Sox would trade Manny Ramirez and they would pick up about $3m of his annual salary if they got back a real nice package right now. But the Red Sox are assuming a sensible deal won't happen, and are trying to mend fences with him. It's all too rich for the Mariners' blood, who haven't been whispered on it, and besides, the M's need a lefty like Carl Everett, right? :-).4) Yes, the Marlins did ask for Reed, Lopez, and a blue-chip arm for Juan Pierre. Most MLB GM's perceive Pierre as a minor star. He is neither the piece of crud that semi-saber 'net rats think he is, nor an All-Star candidate, but he is a useful player. ...Anyway, his perceived value around baseball is well in excess of Jeremy Reed. ...along these lines, DG notes that the M's also asked about Brady Clark to coil the spring on a Reed-eject button..5) Not sure why we didn't pay more attention to Bavasi's wink that he is into a ton of "IF/THEN" scenarios "that could blow a hole in our lineup" and that are bigtime deals. Beltre, Reed, and Lopez are the amigos who could be traded in blockbusters.Seriously - show a little more faith in Bavasi. :-) He wants impact players worse than you do.Don't run screaming into the night every time you hear a rumor about a lukewarm player. Billy will git 'r done. You heard it here first. LOL..6) Carl Everett could easily be an IF/THEN -- brought in to free Raul Ibanez up ... Ibanez-for-Kris Benson has been discussed (Dr. D passes). ... we'll just guess, you might try to work a multiplayer around Matt Clement *if* Millwood fell through.Everett is a league-average hitter, but with that megatalent upside and he is a pull hitter in Safeco. .... If everything broke right he could go .280/.350/.500 with 28 dings and 100 RBI in Safeco, and because he's suited to the park, could (feasibly, now, not probably) be an impact bat. .7) Milton Bradley is an impact CF if you powerflush Reed. Are you kidding? At 28 he has already slugged .500, twice, and is a plus CF and switch-hitter. Bradley would be a genuinely exciting get..The M's don't want to, um, play games with Milton Bradley -- but they do want to dance with Carl Everett? The Oakland A's do want Bradley's issues -- they're chasing him right now. How come they can pull off stuff we can't?.8) Miguel Tejada is not a serious candidate for Seattle because he likes the East Coast now and because even Bill Bavasi doesn't have the ... um, chutzpah to throw a mistake back in Lincoln's face. But supposedly Florida would deal Miguel Cabrera. Any four guys except Felix, amigos..9) Orlando Hudson is the quintessential Mariner second baseman if Jose Lopez is the key to another deal .... league-average bat, terrific defense. Asdrubal Cabrera would be ripe on the vine, ju[...]



mini-POTD: Carl Everett

2005-12-09T13:42:06.920-08:00

.As a ballplayer, I don't especially want Everett. But that's not to say that he might not help the Mariners. He certainly helped the White Sox in 2005.1) Carl Everett's scatter chart implies that he could be the best LH home run hitter the Mariners have had in Safeco. There are many, many doubles he hits in other parks that could go out of Safeco.Seriously -- Everett is very well-suited to the Safeco ballpark. He becomes the first hitter that really attempts to hit left-handed homers there.2) Everett has been only league-average the last two years, and yes, he could decline, but he also has upside. He is a mega-talent compared to Raul Ibanez, has more talent in his little finger than the hard-working and admirable Ibanez ever had. The cold, hard fact is, that Everett could draw on that talent to rebound after 30, like Nomar could, and like Griffey just did.Everett has been injured and he could perform better in 2006 than he did in 2005. If the stars align and the moon is full, Everett could have a 2006 season in which he is a real impact player.Of course, he could also decline. But then, he's cheap. The risk/reward is good here, amigo.3) In any case, Everett is likely to have the #2 HR and #2 RBI total for the 2006 Mariners. 27 HR and 90 RBI is not at all unreasonable to hope for -- and in Safeco that's worth 35-100 someplace else.4) Between Sexson and Beltre, he does in fact give Hargrove what Hargrove wants - a lefty hitter with pop that opposing managers respect.5) Everett plays the outfield better than given credit for (about average). In 2003, he filled in, in CF, and since then his stats at the corners have been middling.6) Everett comes very cheap and on a very short contract. If you obsess over risk/reward, you like Carl Everett for 1/$4m better than you like Brian Giles for 3/$36m.7) Everett frees the Mariners up to trade Raul Ibanez..Again, I don't want Everett. But let's not overlook the things that the Mariners see.Especially if he is the 2nd bat in, let's say Ibanez traded, a Jenkins type in, and Jenkins-Everett-Johjima the offseason upgrade, then yes, Carl Everett could help the Mariners.Enjoy,Jeff[...]