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Preview: Comments on: Carlos Ruiz Gets Bought Out

Comments on: Carlos Ruiz Gets Bought Out



Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary



Last Build Date: Sun, 22 Apr 2018 17:24:52 +0000

 



By: Chris

Sat, 09 Oct 2010 01:10:17 +0000

Why don't you look at this contract now? CHONE and ZiPS were not too accurate....



By: bflaff

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 23:13:39 +0000

Can't be that many Met fans left.



By: schmenkman

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 20:47:32 +0000

Update: It's 1.9mm, 2.75mm, 3.7mm, with a $500k buyout in year 4, totaling 8.85. http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Au0L2Q33V0bbR4r0SYb7g0sRvLYF?slug=ap-phillies-ruiz&prov=ap&type=lgns



By: Larry Smith Jr.

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 18:13:28 +0000

To me, this ironically makes their decision not to keep Cliff Lee more baffling. I don't live in Philly and I'm not privy to the general Phillies fan pulse, but if I were a Phillies fan the only way that I could forgive my FO for not keeping Lee is if they win a championship. Even being a runner-up again isn't good enough. As a Tigers fan who saw them field a horrible team from basically the mid 90s into the mid 00s primarily due to bad drafts and development (which started around the time the '84 championship core began to decline), I fully understand the desire and need to replenish/restock the farm system. However, windows to win the World Series are not large unless you're the Yankees,and while they got back three good and intriguing prospects they didn't get back any *CAN'T-MISS BONAFIDE SUPERSTAR* level prospects. I suppose only time can tell, but it seemed to me as much as anything that the decision to trade Lee was as much of a no-confidence vote in the scouting department as anything. I think if you truly trust your scouts, then you trust they will get you 2 quality players in the draft (that you would receive next year when Lee is a type A). I understand that getting two AA guys and a hi-A guy with roughly 6 or 7 pro seasons between them provides a better ability to project than two college and/or H.S. draft picks, as well as gives you guys who are theoretically closer to the majors, but like I said......if you trust your scouts, you pay them to make the right calls. That has been my impression all along. Now in this discussion there seems to be agreement that the Phillies have done pretty well in scouting, and the evidence provided seems sound. So if their scouts are doing a good job........why not keep Lee and maximize your chance at a title with a Halladay/Lee/Hamels trio at the top of the rotation? These re-ups clearly show that they're committed to spending now and in the future, and signings of players like Ross Gload seem wasteful when you're claiming poor on Lee. To my mind, they should've gone for it all here and let Lee walk and take the picks. Time will tell, but if I personally were a Phillies fan, it'd be championship or bust. And I'm not the type of person who normally thinks in such black/white terms, especially with the huge luck factor that is involved with the MLB playoffs. However it seems that they unnecessarily didn't go for it all, so to me the only way to validate that is to win it all anyway.



By: Matt Klaassen

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 18:00:05 +0000

Interesting point, BoBo. I suppose we could have waited another day or two to post on this. Still, as you acknowledge, the impact ends up be $1.3M in "real value." That amount wouldn't change my analysis very much, if at all. I wrote utilizing the information I had available to me at the time. I'm not sure how that qualifies as "laziness," (maybe the slapdash evaluation of Ruiz's skills?) but I'm sorry I let you down so badly, I guess.



By: Bobo

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:14:38 +0000

Matt, I think you've made a gross oversimplification in your analysis. Assuming that the payments Ruiz recieves over the life of this contract to be annual skews the results. You calculated 16.3mm by averaging the contract over 3 years to be 3mm a year. But if the contract is structurerd as such 2mm, 3mm, 4mm, then the total value is only 15mm. You can quibble at the difference but is has an impact. What if the salary is 1.75mm, 3mm, 4.25mm, then the total value is 14.7mm. I think these articles are nice, but why don't you wait for the actual payroll figures to become public before analyzing them. I feel like this site strives for accuracy in so many of their own metrics, yet at other times is guilty of some pretty lazy analysis. The Phils are likely getting a good (if not great) deal on Ruiz in 2010, but why they bought out all three years I'm not sure I understand, I'd go year to year and take my chances. Either way, we should probably wait to see the annual figures before deciding who got what.



By: bluethree

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:23:05 +0000

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/1707415/chucha_vs_chooch_clearing_up_a_misunderstanding.html?cat=14



By: BATTLETANK

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 15:18:45 +0000

chooch. like the choo choo train. solid signing. and i think all of the defensive metrics have him slightly underrated.



By: Joe R

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 14:27:37 +0000

Well their scouts did help nab Victorino in the Rule 5. It really is impressive how much of Philly's talent is either in-house or guys other teams didn't want. 6 of their 8 starters fall into that group. Someone's doing good work when that's happening.



By: NEPP

Tue, 26 Jan 2010 14:26:45 +0000

My guess would be Mets fans.