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SPC Mesoscale Discussions



Storm Prediction Center



Published: Thu, 25 May 2017 12:25:02 +0000

Last Build Date: Thu, 25 May 2017 12:25:02 +0000

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SPC MD 838

Thu, 25 May 2017 12:24:03 +0000

MD 0838 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
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Mesoscale Discussion 0838
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0723 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

Areas affected...South Florida

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 251223Z - 251430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms may become marginally severe later
this morning, with hail or wind. But coverage may not warrant a
watch.

DISCUSSION...A weak cold front currently extends across south
Florida, with substantial tropical moisture to the south. The 12Z
MFA and KEY soundings both show PW approaching 2" along with
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE in place. Further, mid to upper level wind
fields remain strong, which is lengthening hodographs.

Scattered storms currently exist along the front and extending
southwestward over the Gulf, with a few showers ahead of the front
as well. With pockets of heating, a few of these storms could become
marginally severe with hail or wind. However, generally unfavorable
synoptic-scale conditions will ensue throughout the day with the
upper trough lifting away from the area. Thus, the overall threat is
not expected to be widespread or warrant a watch.

..Jewell/Guyer.. 05/25/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   24848054 24308181 24468194 24848268 25378296 26218251
            26738213 28158045 27087994 26167986 25228013 24848054 

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