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Preview: National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

NHC Eastern North Pacific



Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific



Published: Wed, 23 Aug 2017 06:54:48 GMT

Copyright: none
 



Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 05:22:27 GMT


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1500 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:36:56 GMT

...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 22.6, -134.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.



Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 19

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:36:56 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 230236
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 134.0W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 134.0 West. Kenneth is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is
expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Continued weakening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to
become a remnant low by early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 19

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:36:27 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

000
WTPZ23 KNHC 230236
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017
0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 133.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 19

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:37:27 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 230237
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132017
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Kenneth continues to slowly weaken.  The eye feature that was
evident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS
microwave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to
southerly shear.  A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed
maximum winds in the 55-60 kt range.  Assuming some weakening since
the time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt.
This estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and
CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University
of Wisconsin.

Kenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and
moving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear.
These hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening,
and the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low
in 36 hours.  The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as
depicted by the global models.  This intensity forecast is largely
an update of the previous one.

The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the
west side of a mid-level ridge.  This general motion with a
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while
the system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge.  By the
end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn
to the northwest in the low-level flow.  Little change was made to
the previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest
to the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:36:59 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017

000
FOPZ13 KNHC 230236
PWSEP3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19          
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132017               
0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR      
LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H.                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
25N 135W       34 41  45(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)   X(86)
25N 135W       50  2  25(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
25N 135W       64  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
30N 135W       34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 
30N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI                                               



Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics

Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:40:59 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:40:59 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 03:22:37 GMT