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NHC Eastern North Pacific



Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific



Published: Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:59:15 GMT

Copyright: none
 



Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 05:09:56 GMT


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240509
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Jul 23 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Greg, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, on Tropical Storm
Hilary, located several hundred miles south of Manzanillo Mexico,
and on Tropical Storm Irwin, located several hundred miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Summary for Tropical Storm Greg (EP2/EP072017)

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:28 GMT

...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS GREG IS WEAKENING... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Greg was located near 14.4, -132.1 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.



Tropical Storm Greg Public Advisory Number 28

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:28 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 240847
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Greg Advisory Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...SATELLITE DATA SHOWS GREG IS WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 132.1W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2515 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Greg was
located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 132.1 West.  Greg is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a
west-northwest or northwest motion is forecast for the next couple
of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Additional weakening is expected during the next 48
hours, and Greg is likely to weaken to a tropical depression by
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Advisory Number 28

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

000
WTPZ22 KNHC 240846
TCMEP2
 
TROPICAL STORM GREG FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.1W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  45SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 132.1W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 131.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 133.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.4N 135.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.9N 137.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 140.8W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 17.0N 144.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 132.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 



Tropical Storm Greg Forecast Discussion Number 28

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:48:25 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 240848
TCDEP2

Tropical Storm Greg Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

ASCAT passes at 0542 and 0636 UTC suggest that Greg has weakened a
little.  The highest wind vector in either pass was 36 kt in the
northeast quadrant, and no winds exceeding 32 kt were observed in
any other quadrants.  Based on the ASCAT data, and sampling
considerations, the intensity has been decreased to 40 kt.

The ASCAT passes were very helpful in locating the center of Greg
and the initial motion estimate is 285/8 kt.  No significant change
has been made to the NHC track forecast.  There remains fair
agreement between the models that Greg will continue west-northwest
or northwestward, steered by an extension of a mid-layer ridge
centered to the northwest.  Once the tropical storm weakens to a
remnant low, the low-level flow should turn the remnant circulation
back toward the west or west-southwest until it dissipates.

Greg is not expected to recover from the dry air that is
contributing to its current weakening trend.  The vertical shear is
expected to increase as well in about 24-36 hours, which should
cause further weakening.  The new forecast is a little lower than
the previous one, mainly to account for the lower initial
intensity.  A few models, especially the GFS, suggest that Greg
could open into a trough within the 5-day forecast period, but this
isn't supported by the ECMWF, UKMET, or HWRF.  Out of respect for
those models, the forecast currently calls for Greg to remain a
closed circulation throughout the forecast period, but it would not
be surprising if it dissipated by day 5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.4N 132.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.8N 133.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 15.4N 135.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 16.2N 136.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 16.9N 137.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 17.4N 140.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 96H  28/0600Z 17.0N 144.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  29/0600Z 16.0N 147.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Greg Wind Speed Probabilities Number 28

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:28 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

000
FOPZ12 KNHC 240847
PWSEP2
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM GREG WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  28             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072017               
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GREG WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 132.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
15N 135W       34  1  34(35)   2(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)   X(37)
15N 135W       50  X   7( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
15N 135W       64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
15N 140W       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
15N 145W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 



Tropical Storm Greg Graphics

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:58:50 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:58:50 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:58:50 GMT



Summary for Hurricane Hilary (EP4/EP092017)

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:35 GMT

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 the center of Hilary was located near 14.0, -103.8 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.



Hurricane Hilary Public Advisory Number 12

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:35 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 240847
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Hilary Advisory Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...HILARY BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 103.8W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Hilary was located
near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 103.8 West.  Hilary is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
direction of motion with some increase in forward speed is expected
over the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Continued strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours, and Hilary is likely to become a major hurricane
on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles
(95 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Hilary Forecast Advisory Number 12

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

000
WTPZ24 KNHC 240846
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 103.8W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 103.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 103.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 



Hurricane Hilary Forecast Discussion Number 12

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:58 GMT

Issued at 400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 240847
TCDEP4

Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092017
400 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Hilary's overall cloud pattern continues to become better organized,
although inner-core convection is still fluctuating somewhat.
There is well-defined upper-level outflow, particularly over the
northwest and northeast quadrants of the circulation.  Dvorak
T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are now 4.0, which supports
upgrading the system to the fourth hurricane of the 2017 eastern
North Pacific season.  Hilary is expected to continue traversing
a warm ocean with weak vertical shear for the next couple of days,
which favors continued strengthening.  Rapid intensification is a
distinct possibility, since the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index
(RII) shows a 60 percent chance of a 30 kt increase in intensity
during the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast is in line with the
RII guidance, and is close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
intensity forecast through 72 hours, and a little below it
thereafter when SSTs beneath the cyclone are expected to cool below
26 deg C.

A west-northwestward motion continues, near 300/7 kt.  The flow on
the southern periphery of a large 500 mb ridge that extends westward
from the southwestern United States should be the main steering
mechanism for the next several days.  A slight strengthening of the
flow should lead to some increase in the forward speed of Hilary
over the next few days.  There is still the possibility of some
binary interaction with Tropical Storm Irwin to the west, but for
now this interaction is not expected to be very significant within
the forecast period.  The official track forecast is similar to the
previous one and is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical
model consensus predictions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.0N 103.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.4N 104.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 15.1N 106.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 15.8N 108.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 16.4N 110.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 17.5N 114.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 19.5N 121.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch




Hurricane Hilary Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:47:35 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 240847 PWSEP4 HURRICANE HILARY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HILARY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 105W 34 83 13(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) 15N 105W 50 18 45(63) 1(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) 15N 105W 64 3 29(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 110W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 42(58) 5(63) 1(64) X(64) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) X(25) X(25) 15N 110W 64 X[...]



Hurricane Hilary Graphics

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:52:50 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:52:50 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:52:50 GMT



Summary for Tropical Storm IRWIN (EP5/EP102017)

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:49:00 GMT

...IRWIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 the center of IRWIN was located near 14.8, -117.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.



Tropical Storm IRWIN Public Advisory Number 8

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:49:00 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 240848
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Irwin Advisory Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

...IRWIN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 117.4W
ABOUT 745 MI...1195 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Irwin was
located near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 117.4 West.  Irwin is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h), and a slow westward
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Irwin
is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Advisory Number 8

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:49:00 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 240848
TCMEP5
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP102017
0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.4W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 117.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 117.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY
 
 



Tropical Storm IRWIN Forecast Discussion Number 8

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:49:50 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 240849
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Irwin Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102017
200 AM PDT Mon Jul 24 2017

The convective structure of Irwin has improved quite a bit this
evening.  A recent AMSU microwave pass at 0541 UTC suggests that
deep convection is wrapping nearly all the way around a developing
mid-level eye.  It isn't yet clear if this feature is aligned with
the low-level center.  Current intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB,
and the UW-CIMSS ADT at 0600 UTC were all 45 kt, so that value has
been set as the initial intensity.

Determining the initial motion of Irwin has been tricky, since
recent microwave fixes of the center between 2100 UTC yesterday and
0600 UTC today suggest that the center has barely moved during that
time.  It is assumed that at least some westward motion is still
occuring, and the initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/5 kt.
In the short term, Irwin should continue slowly westward to the
south of a low- to mid-level ridge.  At days 4 and 5, there remains
a fair amount of uncertainty in the degree to which Irwin's track
will be affected by Hurricane Hilary to the east, with the global
models still generally showing more and the regional models less
interaction.  Although the NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly to the north at day 5, it assumes that only a little
interaction will take place, and remains south of the GFS and
ECMWF.

The environment in the short-term still appears favorable for
intensification and the guidance is a little higher for this
advisory.  The NHC forecast now calls for Irwin to become a
hurricane within 24 hours.  After about 2 days, outflow from Hilary
should begin to reach Irwin, resulting in an increase in vertical
shear.  The ECMWF model in particular shows a large increase in
shear at days 3-5, and the NHC forecast therefore begins to show
gradual weakening at that time.  The intensity forecast is near the
HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0900Z 14.8N 117.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 14.8N 117.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.8N 118.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 14.8N 119.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 14.8N 120.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  27/0600Z 14.4N 122.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  28/0600Z 14.5N 123.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  29/0600Z 15.7N 124.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm IRWIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:49:23 GMT

Issued at 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240849 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102017 0900 UTC MON JUL 24 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRWIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 115W 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) 10N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 15N 120W 34 X 13(13) 55(68) 22(90) 2(92) 1(93) X(93) 15N 120W 50 X 2( 2) 29(31) 30(61) 5(66) X(66) X(66) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 19(29) 3(32) 1(33) X([...]



Tropical Storm IRWIN Graphics

Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:57:46 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:57:46 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Jul 2017 08:57:46 GMT