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NHC Atlantic



Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico



Published: Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:43:08 GMT

Copyright: none
 



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Sat, 23 Sep 2017 23:29:22 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 232329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Maria, located a few hundred miles east-northeast of Nassau,
Bahamas, and on Tropical Storm Lee, located over the central
Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east of Bermuda.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky



Summary for Tropical Storm Lee (AT4/AL142017)

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:54:50 GMT

...LEE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 23 the center of Lee was located near 31.9, -50.1 with movement SSE at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.



Tropical Storm Lee Public Advisory Number 23

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:54:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 240254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lee Advisory Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

...LEE STRENGTHENING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 50.1W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1370 MI...2205 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SSE OR 150 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lee was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 50.1 West. Lee is
drifting toward the south-southeast near 1 mph (2 km/h).  A gradual
turn toward the southwest is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours and Lee could become a hurricane on Sunday.

Lee is a small tropical storm.  Tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Advisory Number 23

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:48 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 240303
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM LEE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  23...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

CORRECTED GUSTS AT INITIAL TIME

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 150 DEGREES AT   1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N  50.1W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N  50.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N  50.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY





Tropical Storm Lee Forecast Discussion Number 23

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:55:52 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 240255
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142017
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 23 2017

An ASCAT overpass around 0014 UTC caught the western half of Lee,
and showed a maximum wind of about 40 kt.  On that basis, the
initial intensity has been increased to 45 kt, on the assumption
that the ASCAT instrument is undersampling the tiny circulation of
the tropical storm.

A WindSat overpass from 2102 UTC indicated that Lee has developed a
coherent inner-core.  In fact, the 37 GHz RGB composite from the
WindSat overpass indicated that a ring of shallow to moderate
convection surrounds the center of Lee, often a signature of a
rapidly intensifying cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast has
therefore been significantly increased for the first 48 hours of
the forecast, but falls short of explicitly forecasting rapid
intensification.  Beyond that time, most of the intensity guidance
is higher than before, and shows Lee maintaining hurricane
throughout the forecast period.  The NHC forecast is just a little
above the previous forecast at days 3-5, and close to the intensity
consensus.  It is still worth noting that small tropical cyclones
can go up or down quickly in intensity with little warning, and
confidence in the forecast is low, even with reasonable agreement
among the intensity models.

After turning almost due west earlier this evening, Lee appears to
have come to a near halt and is beginning to turn slowly toward the
southeast. Lee continues to follow the trend of the ECMWF, so the
NHC forecast has been moved farther west, closer to that model.
Although the GFS continues to insist on a east to northeast track, I
am treating it as an outlier at this time.  The remaining global
models (and the HWRF) show that Lee will gradually rotate clockwise
around a building mid-level ridge to the northwest for the next few
days before turning more toward the north at day 4.  The NHC
forecast lies between HCCA and the ECMWF, but confidence in the
track forecast is still low given the high model spread at this
time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 31.9N  50.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 31.8N  50.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 31.5N  49.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.9N  48.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 30.2N  48.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 30.0N  50.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 31.5N  52.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 34.5N  52.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky




Tropical Storm Lee Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:55:23 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
FONT14 KNHC 240255
PWSAT4
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  23              
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142017               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 
31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.                                          
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER ZELINSKY                                                 



Tropical Storm Lee Graphics

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:04:00 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:04:00 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:24:05 GMT



Summary for Hurricane Maria (AT5/AL152017)

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:54:50 GMT

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS... ...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 the center of Maria was located near 27.0, -72.5 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 942 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 115 mph.



Hurricane Maria Public Advisory Number 32

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:54:50 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT35 KNHC 240254
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Maria Advisory Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING NORTHWARD WITH 115 MPH WINDS...
...INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MARIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 72.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests along the Carolina and Mid-Atlantic coasts should monitor
the progress of Maria.  Tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for a portion of the coast on Sunday.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Maria was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 72.5 West. Maria is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast
track, the core of Maria will be moving well east of the United
States southeast coast during the next 2 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Maria is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles
(390 km). NOAA buoy 41047 located north of Maria recently reported a
sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) with a gust of 75 mph (122 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter plane was 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Maria are increasing along portions of
the southeastern United States coast and Bermuda and will be
increasing along the Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  Swells also
continue to affect Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the northern
coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office for more information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane Maria Forecast Advisory Number 32

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:54:50 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017

000
WTNT25 KNHC 240254
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152017
0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE CAROLINA AND MID-ATLANTIC COASTS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MARIA.  TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST ON SUNDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT.......100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 200SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 300SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N  72.5W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.6N  72.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  45NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
50 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N  72.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 



Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 32

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:56:20 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240256
TCDAT5

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL152017
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Once again tonight, the cloud pattern has become more impressive
with a distinct eye of 30 n mi in diameter surrounded by a ring of
very deep convection.  Wind data sampled by the reconnaissance plane
this evening perhaps do not justify winds as high as 100 kt.
However, since the central pressure has dropped to 942 mb, and both
objective and subjective Dvorak numbers have increased slightly due
to the improvement of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is
kept at 100 kt in this advisory.  During the next 24 hours while
Maria is moving through a low shear environment and over warm
waters, slight strengthening could occur. However, this will not be
a significant change, and I have opted to show Maria with the same
intensity for about a day or so. From 36 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will find cooler waters and gradual weakening should then
begin.

Satellite and recon fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving
toward the north or 350 degrees at 8 kt, steered by the flow between
the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough digging
southward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The subtropical high is
forecast to amplify, and this pattern should keep Maria moving
slowly northward for the next 3 days. As the subtropical ridge
slides eastward, Maria will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies
and should recurve away from the United States coast. The track
guidance unanimously brings the hurricane northward to near latitude
34N where recurvature should occur. The uncertainty is how close to
the North Carolina coast Maria's turn will occur. At this time and
with the current guidance, the core of Maria should turn northeast
well east of the Outer Banks. However, Maria is a large cyclone and
the tropical storm force winds extend outward a great distance.
These winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina
coast. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one and
follows very closely the multi-model consensus and the corrected
consensus HCCA.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria's forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the
U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will
occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the
coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the
progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be
needed for part of this area on Sunday.

2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the
southeastern United States and are expected to reach the
Mid-Atlantic coast on Sunday.  These swells will likely cause
dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next
week.  For more information, please monitor information from your
local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 27.0N  72.5W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 28.2N  72.7W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 29.5N  73.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 30.5N  73.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 31.5N  73.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 33.2N  73.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 34.5N  72.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 35.5N  69.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane Maria Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 02:55:23 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 240255 PWSAT5 HURRICANE MARIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 0300 UTC SUN SEP 24 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTAUK POINT [...]



Hurricane Maria Graphics

Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:03:25 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 24 Sep 2017 03:31:53 GMT