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NHC Atlantic



Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico



Published: Sat, 19 Aug 2017 05:38:15 GMT

Copyright: none
 



Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 05:32:26 GMT


000
ABNT20 KNHC 190532
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Harvey, located over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

A trough of low pressure located about 400 miles east-northeast of
the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
be only marginally conducive for development during the next few
days while this system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A tropical wave located over the eastern Atlantic Ocean about
midway between the Lesser Antilles and Africa is producing some
shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions appear
somewhat conducive for gradual development over the next few days
while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about
20 mph, but upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable by
the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake



Summary for Tropical Storm Harvey (AT4/AL092017)

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:33:30 GMT

...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... As of 11:00 PM AST Fri Aug 18 the center of Harvey was located near 13.7, -64.1 with movement W at 18 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.



Tropical Storm Harvey Public Advisory Number 7

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:33:30 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT34 KNHC 190233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Harvey Advisory Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

...HARVEY CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 64.1W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ENE OF CURACAO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Caribbean Sea and the adjacent land areas of
eastern Central America and northern South America should monitor
the progress of Harvey.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Harvey was
located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 64.1 West.  Harvey is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  An even faster
motion toward the west is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Harvey will move across the
eastern and central Caribbean Sea over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Locally heavy rains could occur tonight over portions of
the Windward Islands and the offshore islands of northern Venezuela.
Locally heavy rains could also occur over Aruba, Bonaire, and
Curacao on Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Advisory Number 7

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:33:30 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017

000
WTNT24 KNHC 190233
TCMAT4
 
TROPICAL STORM HARVEY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092017
0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ADJACENT LAND AREAS OF
EASTERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF HARVEY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  64.1W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  64.1W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N  63.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.0N  66.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 14.3N  70.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N  74.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 14.8N  78.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 16.5N  84.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 18.0N  89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 19.0N  92.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N  64.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
 



Tropical Storm Harvey Forecast Discussion Number 7

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:33:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Harvey Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL092017
1100 PM AST Fri Aug 18 2017

Microwave and conventional geostationary satellite images indicate
that Harvey's center is still displaced to the east of a persistent
cluster of deep convection due to about 15 kt of northeasterly
shear.  With no notable changes in the cyclone's structure since
the last advisory, the maximum wind estimate remains 35 kt, which
is in line with the latest Dvorak CI numbers.

Recent microwave fixes suggest that Harvey's center may have slowed
down or wobbled northward temporarily, and the 12-hour motion
estimate is a slightly slower 275/16 kt.  A low- to mid-level ridge
extending across the western Atlantic should keep Harvey on a swift
westward course across the Caribbean Sea for the next 48 hours.
Once Harvey moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by 72 hours,
it will reach the western edge of the ridge, and it will likely
slow down and gain some latitude due to a cut-off low over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico.  Although the track guidance envelope
has shifted slightly northward on this cycle, especially around the
72-hour period, there are no significant changes from six hours ago.

Northeasterly or northerly shear is forecast to continue for the
next 36 hours or so, which should prevent significant strengthening
while Harvey moves westward across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea.  By 48 hours, the vertical shear over the cyclone
drops drastically, but the system's fast motion could still
limit the amount of intensification that will occur.  The best
opportunity for strengthening would likely be around day 3 when
Harvey begins to slow down as it approaches Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula.  The updated NHC intensity forecast is the same as the
previous one during the first 48 hours, and it was nudged a little
lower at 72 hours to fall closer to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) model and the ICON intensity consensus.  A lot of
uncertainty remains, however, since models like SHIPS and HWRF
bring Harvey near or to hurricane intensity before it reaches land
while the GFS and ECMWF continue to weaken the circulation while it
moves across the Caribbean Sea.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 13.7N  64.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 14.0N  66.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 14.3N  70.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 14.5N  74.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  21/0000Z 14.8N  78.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  22/0000Z 16.5N  84.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  23/0000Z 18.0N  89.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
120H  24/0000Z 19.0N  92.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Berg




Tropical Storm Harvey Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:33:30 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 000 FONT14 KNHC 190233 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092017 0300 UTC SAT AUG 19 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT TUXPAN MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) VERACRUZ MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) FRONTERA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10(16) FRONTERA MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) 1(14) COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BELIZE CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 24(27) 2(29) BELIZE CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( [...]



Tropical Storm Harvey Graphics

Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT

(image)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 02:39:08 GMT

(image)
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Aug 2017 03:24:14 GMT