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SPC Forecast Products

Storm Prediction Center

Published: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:00:02 +0000

Last Build Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:00:02 +0000

Copyright: None

SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017

Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:59:04 +0000

No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017.

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017

Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:59:04 +0000

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017.

SPC Jan 17, 2017 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Tue, 17 Jan 2017 13:05:54 +0000

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0702 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z



Isolated severe storms may develop across parts of southern Texas,
mainly this evening into tonight. Large hail, locally damaging
winds, and a brief tornado are possible.

...Southern TX...
A slow-moving cold front will become quasi-stationary across the
coastal plain into the Brush Country today. Neutral mid-level height
change is expected over the warm sector, downstream of a dampening
shortwave trough ejecting from the Gulf of CA towards the TX
Panhandle. However, an increase in low-level warm air advection will
occur along and north of the front this evening, likely yielding
scattered, mostly elevated storms across parts of central TX.
Farther east, weaker warm-air advection should still be sufficient
for isolated storms forming across the coastal plain overnight. 

While low-level moisture should remain rich within the warm sector,
relatively warm upper-level temperatures as sampled by 12Z Corpus
Christi and Brownsville soundings should limit total buoyancy. In
conjunction with 35-45 kt effective shear and modest low-level
hodographs, setup should favor weak, transient updraft rotation in a
few cells embedded within a predominant cluster-type mode. Isolated
severe hail appears to be the main hazard, but locally damaging
winds and a brief tornado may occur, considering the high quality
low-level moisture.

..Grams.. 01/17/2017

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