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SPC Forecast Products



Storm Prediction Center



Published: Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:07:01 +0000

Last Build Date: Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:07:01 +0000

Copyright: None
 



SPC - No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:06:05 +0000

No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017.



SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:06:04 +0000

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017.



SPC Apr 24, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 20:01:35 +0000

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the eastern Carolinas
today, with isolated weak thunderstorms from the Rockies into the
central Plains.

...Eastern Carolinas...
Weak instability currently exists across SC where pockets of heating
have occurred. However, shear profiles are weak. Forecast RAP
soundings through tonight indicate a rather jumbled wind profile
into NC along with only weak instability. Hail is unlikely, and lack
of appreciable mean-winds or storm organization would seem to
preclude any severe wind threat. Little if any effective SRH is
forecast by RAP soundings due to both weak flow and weak
instability. As such, have removed the Marginal Risk.

..Jewell.. 04/24/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

...Carolinas...
An upper low is currently centered today over GA, lifting slowly
northeastward.  Large-scale lift ahead of this feature is resulting
in rather widespread showers and thunderstorms over parts of
SC/NC/VA.  Northeasterly low-level winds, cool conditions near the
surface, and marginal CAPE will limit the risk of severe storms over
the majority of the region.  The possible exception will be near the
SC/NC coast where a weak warm front is poised.  Ample low-level
moisture and marginal surface-based instability may be sufficient
for an isolated cell to interact with the boundary and produce
damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado later today.  An isolated
cell capable of hail is also possible this afternoon in vicinity of
the upper low center over western SC.  Both of these threat areas
appear to be quite marginal in nature.

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Mon, 24 Apr 2017 18:57:40 +0000

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
(image)
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
INTO WEST TEXAS...

No changes have been made to the critical area across parts of
southern NM into west TX with this update. The surrounding elevated
delineation has been expanded westward to include more of
southern/central AZ into the lower CO River Valley. Strong/gusty
westerly to northwesterly winds are expected as a mid-level jet
overspreads this region through Tuesday afternoon. Sustained winds
of 20-30 mph appear probable, with RH values falling into the 15-20%
range. Localized critical conditions may occur where RH values fall
below 15%, but current expectations are for this to occur across
portions of southern/central AZ and the lower CO River Valley on
just a brief/spotty basis, precluding a critical area at this time.

The elevated area has also been expanded eastward slightly to
encompass more of the southern Plains. Latest guidance suggests
strong southwesterly mid-level winds will be transported to the
surface through diurnal mixing processes behind an eastward-mixing
dryline. Related downslope warming/drying will easily allow RH
values to become critically lowered across a broad portion of west
TX behind the dryline. However, many areas across this region have
reported green-up of most fuels, which may hamper large fire starts
and spread. Therefore, these generally unreceptive fuels preclude
the eastward expansion of the ongoing critical area.

..Gleason.. 04/24/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough is expected to move from the Four Corners/Southwest
into the southern Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front sweeps through
much of the central Plains. Dry westerly flow will result in another
day of elevated to critical conditions across portions of New Mexico
into West Texas. 

...New Mexico and adjacent portions of southeast Arizona and west
Texas...
While temperatures may be somewhat cooler compared to Monday, dry,
warm, and windy conditions are expected to persist across portions
of NM and adjacent portions of southeast AZ and west TX. Minimum RH
values of 8-15% combined with sustained westerly winds of 20-30 MPH
will result in critical fire weather conditions across primarily
southern New Mexico into West Texas. Surrounding the critical area,
a broad area of elevated conditions is expected, with the
progression of the cold front defining the northern extent of
elevated wind/RH.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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