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Storm Prediction Center



Published: Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:49:02 +0000

Last Build Date: Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:49:02 +0000

Copyright: None
 



SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 20 20:49:02 UTC 2018

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:48:17 +0000

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 20 20:49:02 UTC 2018.



SPC MD 279

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:47:05 +0000

MD 0279 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO...WEST TEXAS
(image)

Mesoscale Discussion 0279
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico...West Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 202046Z - 202315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for large hail and wind damage may develop across
parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas late this afternoon into
early evening. The threat is expected to remain isolated and weather
watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1002 mb low eastern
New Mexico with a dryline extending southward from the low into far
west Texas. Surface dewpoints to the east of the dryline range from
near 40 F at Clovis, NM to near 50 F at Midland, TX. In response to
surface heating, a narrow corridor of instability is analyzed by the
RAP from far west Texas extending northward into eastern New Mexico.
Visible satellite imagery shows developing cumulus along the
instability corridor with the most widespread cumulus located from
near Roswell, NM northward to near Tucumcari, NM. A weak capping
inversion is likely present but the cap should diminish over the
next couple of hours as surface heating continues and large-scale
ascent increases ahead of an approaching upper-level system in the
Four Corners region. This should allow for the initiation of
surfaced-based convection in east eastern New Mexico late this
afternoon.

The HRRR solution seems reasonable which develops a line of
thunderstorms oriented from north to south across far eastern New
Mexico and moves this line eastward into west Texas by early
evening. Regional WSR-88D VWPs and objective analysis show strong
deep-layer shear in place with 0-6 km shear estimated near 60 kt.
This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates on forecast soundings
may support strong updrafts capable of producing isolated large
hail. A wind damage threat will also be possible. Instability should
remain relatively weak and any severe threat should remain isolated.

..Broyles/Hart.. 04/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   33500236 34410243 34880269 35020325 34950402 34720436
            34070435 32830409 31750382 31240362 30960337 30930271
            31440243 33500236 

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SPC Apr 20, 2018 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 16:46:23 +0000

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and gusts are possible today from thunderstorms over
portions of the southern High Plains, mainly mid-afternoon into
early evening.

...Southern High Plains...
A deep upper low is progressing eastward across the southern
Rockies, and will affect the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening.  Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over
eastern NM and West TX, where southeasterly surface winds will
slowly transport moisture into region.  Dewpoints are only in the
30s to lower 40s F now, but should climb to near 50F by late
afternoon with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. 
Present indications are that thunderstorms will form as the leading
edge of large-scale forcing arrives from the west.  Steep mid level
lapse rates and sufficient CAPE will support a few strong updrafts
capable of hail.  Vertical shear profiles are also forecast to be
quite strong, supportive of rotating cells capable of gusty winds or
a brief tornado.  The threat of severe storms appears rather focused
between 23-02z.

..Hart/Kerr.. 04/20/2018

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SPC Apr 20, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 20:02:13 +0000

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0255 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 202000Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
EAST-CENTRAL NM AND WEST TX...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe hail and gusts are possible today from thunderstorms over
portions of the southern High Plains, mainly late-afternoon into
early evening.

...Discussion update...
Latest runs of experimental short-term tornado probability guidance
suggest the tornado threat is low.  Based on surface observations of
moisture across the eastern NM/west TX region, expecting the
development of boundary-layer RH to be limited and a negative factor
for low-level mesocyclones (30 degrees F temperature/dewpoint
spreads.  Therefore, have removed the 2% tornado probability.  Have
also adjusted the northern periphery of low hail/wind probabilities
farther to the south based on satellite/radar imagery due to
maintaining a cool/stable layer near the surface and north of active
convection.  Otherwise, no other changes have been made.

..Smith.. 04/20/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1139 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

...Southern High Plains...
A deep upper low is progressing eastward across the southern
Rockies, and will affect the southern High Plains this afternoon and
evening.  Visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies over
eastern NM and West TX, where southeasterly surface winds will
slowly transport moisture into region.  Dewpoints are only in the
30s to lower 40s F now, but should climb to near 50F by late
afternoon with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. 
Present indications are that thunderstorms will form as the leading
edge of large-scale forcing arrives from the west.  Steep mid level
lapse rates and sufficient CAPE will support a few strong updrafts
capable of hail.  Vertical shear profiles are also forecast to be
quite strong, supportive of rotating cells capable of gusty winds or
a brief tornado.  The threat of severe storms appears rather focused
between 23-02z.

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SPC Apr 20, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 17:30:20 +0000

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
(image)
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TX
TO SOUTHWESTERN LA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of Texas into western Louisiana Saturday.

...Central TX into western LA...
A mid- to upper-level low and associated trough will move southeast
from the central and southern High Plains to the Ark-La-Tex region
by daybreak Sunday.  An arctic front over the southern High Plains
will overtake a Pacific cold front during the day across
north-central TX and the consolidated boundary will progress
southeast to western LA and the shelf waters of the Upper TX Coast. 
Widespread clouds and rain are forecast through the early part of
the day to the north of I-20 in north-central and northeast TX. 
There is considerable uncertainty to the degree of destabilization
that may occur in wake of early-day rain.  Some model guidance shows
very little destabilization whereas the 12Z run of the GFS is by far
the most aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer across
north-central TX.  With those instability concerns mentioned, it
appears the north extent of 60-65 dewpoints will advect into
east-central TX by afternoon and only weak instability will develop.
A couple of stronger storms are possible with an isolated hail/wind
risk.  This activity will grow upscale along the front and push into
east and southeast TX after dark.  A lingering threat for a damaging
gust may remain into parts of southeast TX and southwest LA
overnight Saturday night.

..Smith.. 04/20/2018

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Fri, 20 Apr 2018 17:15:18 +0000

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
(image)
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1212 PM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

The previous forecast remains on track and no changes are needed.

..Leitman.. 04/20/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

...Synopsis...
An upper trough will continue eastward across the southern/central
Plains on Day 2/Saturday, with enhanced mid-level winds confined to
mainly parts of the southern Plains. A surface low is forecast to
develop from west TX to the vicinity of southern OK/north TX through
Saturday evening as a trailing cold front moves eastward across the
TX Hill Country and Edwards Plateau. A secondary, reinforcing cold
front attendant to this low should move southward across the
southern High Plains through the period.

...Portions of Far Southern NM to the Edwards Plateau of TX...
Behind the initial cold front passage but ahead of the reinforcing
cold front, elevated conditions are expected Saturday afternoon for
parts of far southern NM into west TX, including the Edwards Plateau
region. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph should become common along with
RH values lowered into generally the 10-20% range. Spotty
precipitation associated with isolated thunderstorms may occur
along/ahead of the front for parts of this region on Day 1/Friday.
Latest short-term guidance continues to suggest the overall coverage
of this precipitation will likely remain too isolated to reduce fuel
receptiveness on a widespread basis. The lack of even stronger
forecast winds precludes the introduction of a critical area.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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