Published: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:00:02 +0000
Last Build Date: Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:00:02 +0000Copyright: None
Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:59:04 +0000No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017.
Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:59:04 +0000No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jan 17 15:00:02 UTC 2017.
Tue, 17 Jan 2017 13:05:54 +0000SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0702 AM CST Tue Jan 17 2017 Valid 171300Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHERN TX... CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may develop across parts of southern Texas, mainly this evening into tonight. Large hail, locally damaging winds, and a brief tornado are possible. ...Southern TX... A slow-moving cold front will become quasi-stationary across the coastal plain into the Brush Country today. Neutral mid-level height change is expected over the warm sector, downstream of a dampening shortwave trough ejecting from the Gulf of CA towards the TX Panhandle. However, an increase in low-level warm air advection will occur along and north of the front this evening, likely yielding scattered, mostly elevated storms across parts of central TX. Farther east, weaker warm-air advection should still be sufficient for isolated storms forming across the coastal plain overnight. While low-level moisture should remain rich within the warm sector, relatively warm upper-level temperatures as sampled by 12Z Corpus Christi and Brownsville soundings should limit total buoyancy. In conjunction with 35-45 kt effective shear and modest low-level hodographs, setup should favor weak, transient updraft rotation in a few cells embedded within a predominant cluster-type mode. Isolated severe hail appears to be the main hazard, but locally damaging winds and a brief tornado may occur, considering the high quality low-level moisture. ..Grams.. 01/17/2017Read more