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SPC Forecast Products



Storm Prediction Center



Published: Sun, 04 Dec 2016 16:27:02 +0000

Last Build Date: Sun, 04 Dec 2016 16:27:02 +0000

Copyright: None
 



SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 4 16:27:02 UTC 2016

Sun, 04 Dec 2016 16:26:13 +0000

No watches are valid as of Sun Dec 4 16:27:02 UTC 2016.



SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Dec 4 16:27:02 UTC 2016

Sun, 04 Dec 2016 16:26:12 +0000

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Dec 4 16:27:02 UTC 2016.



SPC Dec 4, 2016 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sun, 04 Dec 2016 12:45:06 +0000

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0641 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY. ...SYNOPSIS... IN MUD/UPPER LEVELS...MEAN TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN REGION AS THREE STRONG SHORTWAVE PERTURBATIONS PROGRESS THROUGH ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW: 1. SOUTHERN-STREAM CYCLONE OVER WEST-CENTRAL/NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... PART OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE PACIFIC SOUTH OF BAJA. THE ASSOCIATED 500-MB LOW SHOULD DEEPEN SOMEWHAT AS IT PIVOTS EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...REACHING THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO RANGE OF NORTHERN COAHUILA BY 12Z. AS THIS OCCURS...HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. 2. NORTHERN-STREAM TROUGH -- CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOOSELY IN PHASE WITH THE MEXICAN PERTURBATION VIA A CONNECTIVE VORTICITY BANNER OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED VORTICITY FIELD IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE... HOWEVER...AND WILL SEPARATE...DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD. 3. INITIALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE PERTURBATION AND SPEED MAX -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWESTERN CANADA -- WILL DIG EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE MEAN TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY-2 PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...THE 11Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT...ILL-DEFINED WELL INLAND...FROM SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE TEXAS COAST. A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI COAST EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. A WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW ANALYZED INITIALLY EAST OF PADRE ISLAND MAY DEEPEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD AND BE A DIRECT PLAYER IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ONLY OVER THE GULF. THE WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN/CENTRAL COASTAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND MAY MOVE SLIGHTLY INLAND BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTION. RAIN TO ITS NORTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STABILIZATION THAT WILL IMPEDED THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL ZONE ON MESO-BETA TO LOCAL SCALES. ...CENTRAL GULF COASTAL REGION... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ARE EVIDENT IN TWO PRIMARY CONVERGENCE BANDS: 1. PREFRONTAL...FROM NEAR LIVINGSTON PARISH...LA...SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY...WITH CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL THAT ITS ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT CAN ENCOUNTER WARM-SECTOR AIR FARTHER EAST. MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF THE INLAND AREAS OF LOUISIANA AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE WARM FRONT AND/OR OUTFLOW FROM ACTIVITY FARTHER EAST. EVENTUAL SURFACE-BASED INFLOW INTO ANY OF THIS CONVECTIVE PLUME...INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON MESOSCALE PROCESSES CONTRIBUTING TO DESTABILIZATION BEHIND THE OTHER BAND. 2. A SHORTER...BROKEN LINE -- GENERATING IN THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR AND CROSSING THE WARM FRONT -- FROM COASTAL MOBILE COUNTY...AL... SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS PLAQUEMINES PARISH...LA. ALTHOUGH THE WARM FRONT MAY REMAIN ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE ALABAMA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE COAST PRIOR TO PASSAGE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS... SURFACE-BASED EFFECTIVE-INFLOW PARCELS EXTEND INTO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...AND SOME SEVERE THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1866 FOR NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE ON THE MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE EASTERN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHET[...]



SPC Dec 4, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sun, 04 Dec 2016 16:26:24 +0000

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1022 AM CST SUN DEC 04 2016

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR TORNADO THREAT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST TODAY.

...FL PANHANDLE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE
FL PANHANDLE TODAY...WHERE A TINY SLIVER OF TROPICAL AIR MASS HAS
MOVED ASHORE.  WITHIN THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR...SOME RISK OF A
BRIEF TORNADO OR WIND GUST WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS.  HOWEVER...MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS SLOWLY
VEER AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.  THIS SUGGESTS THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT IS MARGINAL.

..HART/MARSH.. 12/04/2016

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