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SPC Forecast Products



Storm Prediction Center



Published: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:35:01 +0000

Last Build Date: Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:35:01 +0000

Copyright: None
 



SPC - No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 17 07:35:01 UTC 2018

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:34:06 +0000

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 17 07:35:01 UTC 2018.



SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Wed Jan 17 07:35:01 UTC 2018

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:34:05 +0000

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 17 07:35:01 UTC 2018.



SPC Jan 17, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 05:43:56 +0000

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are not expected across the U.S. today or tonight.

...DISCUSSION...
An upper-level trough will move across the eastern U.S. today as
another upper-level trough remains in the eastern Pacific. A
mid-level jet associated with this system will overspread the
Pacific Northwest tonight. Strong large-scale ascent and steep lapse
rates will be enough for an isolated lightning strike along the
coast of Washington late in the period. However, thunder coverage is
not expected to reach the 10 percent threshold. Elsewhere across the
CONUS, thunderstorms are not expected today or tonight.

..Broyles/Karstens.. 01/17/2018

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SPC Jan 17, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 06:37:52 +0000

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
(image)
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest
coast Thursday into Thursday night.

...Synopsis...
A powerful southwesterly mid/upper jet will sink southward along the
Pacific Northwest coastline Thursday. Concurrently, strong
southwesterlies will also spread farther inland towards the northern
High Plains through the period. Downstream ridging will gradually
flatten in response, while slowly shifting southeast across the
Desert Southwest and central Plains. To its southeast, a weak
impulse will cross from northern Mexico into far southern Texas
Thursday night.

...Pacific Northwest...
Behind the aforementioned southwesterly jet, cold mid-level temps
(around -30 to -34 C at 500mb) will overspread parts of the Pacific
Northwest. Increasing low/mid-level instability, combined with
adequate boundary-layer moisture near the coast, will promote
scattered convection through the period. Forecast soundings indicate
that a few updrafts should deepen enough for isolated lightning
strikes along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California
coastlines.

...South Texas...
As a weak impulse crosses the Rio Grande late in the period,
cooling/moistening mid levels over south Texas will generate weak
elevated buoyancy. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
forecast soundings indicate nascent updrafts will struggle with
dry-air entrainment near 700-600mb, likely precluding deep
convection.

..Picca.. 01/17/2018

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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:33:26 +0000

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0131 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
A highly amplified deep-layer trough will move eastward and exit the
eastern half of the CONUS today, leaving mostly weak mid-level
northwesterly flow in its wake. Meanwhile, strong mid- to
upper-level southwesterly flow will enter the Pacific Northwest in
advance of a trough located just offshore, helping to develop a
ridge over the northern Rockies. At the surface, a cold front will
move through the Eastern Seaboard, bringing sustained northwesterly
winds of 10-15 mph to portions of FL. Although RH values should
remain near or just above 30% in most areas of the state, some
locally elevated fire-weather potential may arise, particularly
where fuels are dry.

To the west, high pressure will build into the upper Great Basin
region, resulting in the concurrent development of a surface
pressure gradient and offshore winds of 10-20 mph into portions of
southern CA late Wednesday night and early Thursday morning.
However, fuels in this region remain unsupportive of large-fire
potential, therefore no highlighted areas have been introduced.

..Karstens.. 01/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Wed, 17 Jan 2018 07:34:16 +0000

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
(image)
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0132 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO CRITICAL AREAS...

...Synopsis...
Strong southwesterly mid- to upper-level flow will move onshore
along the West Coast in advance of an approaching trough. Meanwhile,
light northwesterly mid-level flow can be expected across portions
of the central/eastern U.S. At the surface, high pressure will
remain in place over portions of the Southeast. Quiet fire-weather
conditions are expected to prevail throughout the forecast period.

..Karstens.. 01/17/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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