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SPC Forecast Products



Storm Prediction Center



Published: Sat, 24 Jun 2017 05:17:01 +0000

Last Build Date: Sat, 24 Jun 2017 05:17:01 +0000

Copyright: None
 



SPC - No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 24 05:17:01 UTC 2017

Sat, 24 Jun 2017 05:16:06 +0000

No watches are valid as of Sat Jun 24 05:17:01 UTC 2017.



SPC MD 1144

Sat, 24 Jun 2017 05:15:03 +0000

MD 1144 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA
(image)

Mesoscale Discussion 1144
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 AM CDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Areas affected...Central North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 240514Z - 240715Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat may develop across central
North Carolina over the few hours. However, the threat is expected
to remain marginal and weather watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows the remnants of Cindy moving
eastward across the southern and central Appalachians. A couple
bands of convection are ongoing across western Virginia extending
southward into western North Carolina. The airmass ahead of this
convection is very moist with surface dewpoints in the 70s F across
much of North Carolina which is resulting in a corridor of moderate
instability across the Piedmont of North Carolina. MLCAPE values are
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range from near the NC-SC
stateline extending northeastward into southeastern Virginia. In
addition, WSR-88D VWPs at Roanoke, NC shows a strong deep-layer
shear profile with 0-6 km shear of 50 to 55 kt and substantial speed
shear in the lowest 1km AGL. This may support an isolated wind
damage threat as the line segment moves eastward into central North
Carolina over the next couple of hours. The latest CAM solutions
suggest that the line that is currently in west-central may persist
for a couple more hours and then weaken. This seems reasonable and
weather watch issuance remains unlikely due to the short duration
that is expected for any wind damage threat.

..Broyles/Dial.. 06/24/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35007822 34747989 34798055 35228086 35988002 36407917
            36097801 35007822 

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SPC Jun 24, 2017 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Sat, 24 Jun 2017 01:14:29 +0000

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
(image)
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0810 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Valid 240100Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA EAST INTO CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S....

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
ARKLATEX WEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible tonight
from portions of the Ohio Valley east into the northeast U.S.  A few
severe storms with strong wind gusts and hail will also be possible
across parts of the southeast States and from the Arklatex into the
southern Plains.

A frontal boundary, punctuated by convective outflows, extended from
the lower Great Lakes into the southern Plains at 01z.  Surface low
pressure, the remnants of Tropical Storm Cindy, was located over
north-central Kentucky.  In areas near/south of the front
unperturbed by convection, a moist/weakly buoyant air mass remains
in place.  Aloft, broadly cyclonic mid-level flow exists from the
central/northern Plains east across the mid-Atlantic region and New
England.  Stronger low- and mid-level flow will gradually shift east
into portions of the mid Atlantic and northeast states overnight.

...Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Northeast U.S....
Reference MCD number 1142 for latest short-term thinking 
Some risk for organized storms is expected to persist into the
overnight hours as the cold front moves steadily east and the
surface low over northern Kentucky accelerates northeast in
proximity to the front.  Although instability will generally be
weak, strengthening wind fields will result in increasing deep-layer
shear in the 45-55 kt range overnight.  Weak impulses aloft,
possibly convectively modulated, will lift northeast across the
region providing subtle large-scale ascent. High-resolution guidance
continues to suggest additional thunderstorm development overnight,
possible in short line segments, in an environment favorable for
damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.  Will maintain the Slight Risk
overnight for this scenario.

...North Georgia west to Arklatex...
Reference MCD number 1143 for latest short-term thinking across the
Arklatex region. Otherwise, will maintain Marginal Risk areas for
isolated damaging wind potential with ongoing storms, and some
potential for additional development later this evening. 

...Central/north Texas and southern Oklahoma...
An increase in thunderstorm development is anticipated later this
evening and tonight in association with weak isentropic ascent north
of the frontal boundary. Effective shear will be sufficient for some
degree of storm organization posing a risk for isolated strong winds
and hail.

..Bunting.. 06/24/2017

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