Published: Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:07:01 +0000
Last Build Date: Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:07:01 +0000Copyright: None
Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:06:05 +0000No watches are valid as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017.
Mon, 24 Apr 2017 23:06:04 +0000No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Apr 24 23:07:01 UTC 2017.
Mon, 24 Apr 2017 20:01:35 +0000SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are possible across the eastern Carolinas today, with isolated weak thunderstorms from the Rockies into the central Plains. ...Eastern Carolinas... Weak instability currently exists across SC where pockets of heating have occurred. However, shear profiles are weak. Forecast RAP soundings through tonight indicate a rather jumbled wind profile into NC along with only weak instability. Hail is unlikely, and lack of appreciable mean-winds or storm organization would seem to preclude any severe wind threat. Little if any effective SRH is forecast by RAP soundings due to both weak flow and weak instability. As such, have removed the Marginal Risk. ..Jewell.. 04/24/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/ ...Carolinas... An upper low is currently centered today over GA, lifting slowly northeastward. Large-scale lift ahead of this feature is resulting in rather widespread showers and thunderstorms over parts of SC/NC/VA. Northeasterly low-level winds, cool conditions near the surface, and marginal CAPE will limit the risk of severe storms over the majority of the region. The possible exception will be near the SC/NC coast where a weak warm front is poised. Ample low-level moisture and marginal surface-based instability may be sufficient for an isolated cell to interact with the boundary and produce damaging winds or perhaps a brief tornado later today. An isolated cell capable of hail is also possible this afternoon in vicinity of the upper low center over western SC. Both of these threat areas appear to be quite marginal in nature.Read more
Mon, 24 Apr 2017 18:57:40 +0000SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS... No changes have been made to the critical area across parts of southern NM into west TX with this update. The surrounding elevated delineation has been expanded westward to include more of southern/central AZ into the lower CO River Valley. Strong/gusty westerly to northwesterly winds are expected as a mid-level jet overspreads this region through Tuesday afternoon. Sustained winds of 20-30 mph appear probable, with RH values falling into the 15-20% range. Localized critical conditions may occur where RH values fall below 15%, but current expectations are for this to occur across portions of southern/central AZ and the lower CO River Valley on just a brief/spotty basis, precluding a critical area at this time. The elevated area has also been expanded eastward slightly to encompass more of the southern Plains. Latest guidance suggests strong southwesterly mid-level winds will be transported to the surface through diurnal mixing processes behind an eastward-mixing dryline. Related downslope warming/drying will easily allow RH values to become critically lowered across a broad portion of west TX behind the dryline. However, many areas across this region have reported green-up of most fuels, which may hamper large fire starts and spread. Therefore, these generally unreceptive fuels preclude the eastward expansion of the ongoing critical area. ..Gleason.. 04/24/2017 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough is expected to move from the Four Corners/Southwest into the southern Plains on Tuesday, as a cold front sweeps through much of the central Plains. Dry westerly flow will result in another day of elevated to critical conditions across portions of New Mexico into West Texas. ...New Mexico and adjacent portions of southeast Arizona and west Texas... While temperatures may be somewhat cooler compared to Monday, dry, warm, and windy conditions are expected to persist across portions of NM and adjacent portions of southeast AZ and west TX. Minimum RH values of 8-15% combined with sustained westerly winds of 20-30 MPH will result in critical fire weather conditions across primarily southern New Mexico into West Texas. Surrounding the critical area, a broad area of elevated conditions is expected, with the progression of the cold front defining the northern extent of elevated wind/RH. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...Read more